2009 - %3, January

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House Election Finale

| Tue Jan. 27, 2009 10:34 AM PST

HOUSE ELECTION FINALE....Via Open Left, the unofficial final vote counts for the 2008 congressional election are here. Here's how the House race turned out:

  • Two-party popular vote: Democrats 55.5%, Republicans 44.5%.

  • House seats won: Democrats 59%, Republicans 41%.

Bottom line: Dems won the two-party vote by 11 percentage points, but won the race for congressional seats by 18 percentage points. That's a pretty big divergence by recent historical standards. I wonder if Democrats can hold on to it?

Yet More Climate Change Bad News

| Tue Jan. 27, 2009 10:14 AM PST

YET MORE CLIMATE CHANGE BAD NEWS....Today brings yet more news that global warming is worse than we think it is:

Even if by some miracle the nations of the world could bring carbon dioxide levels back to those of the pre-industrial era, it would still take 1,000 years or longer for the climate changes already triggered to be reversed, scientists said Monday.

....Over the long haul, the warming will melt the polar icecaps more than had previously been estimated, raising ocean levels substantially, the report said.

And changes in rainfall patterns will bring droughts to the American Southwest, southern Europe, northern Africa and western Australia comparable to those that caused the 1930s Dust Bowl in the U.S.

...."The policy relevance is clear: We need to act sooner, even if there is some doubt about exactly what will happen, because by the time the public and policymakers really realize the changes are here, it is far too late to do anything about it," [said Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research].

James Inhofe and Rush Limbaugh say this is all just a big hoax. But they'll be dead before the worst of the changes hit, so I guess they don't really have to care, do they?

Honeymoon Politics

| Tue Jan. 27, 2009 9:32 AM PST

HONEYMOON POLITICS....Matt Yglesias comments on the likelihood that Democrats are going to drop contraceptive funding from the stimulus bill:

As with a lot of Democratic concessions on the bill thus far, what seems to be missing is the "pro quo." Where are the members of the House saying "yesterday I was inclined to vote 'no' on this, but thanks to this change I'm voting 'yes.'" Bargaining is smart. I even think magnanimity on the part of a new majority is smart. But when you bargain, you get something. And I don't see what Obama's gotten for his business tax cuts nor do I see what he's getting for selling out low-income women's access to contraceptives.

I guess there's no telling on this. Maybe Obama will surprise us and get his 80 votes in the Senate after all. Or maybe the "concessions" Democrats have made so far have been things they didn't really care much about in the first place. And I guess there could also be some political benefit in making a bunch of compromises, getting no Republican support, and then being able to sell a story to the media about how the GOP caucus is still just a bunch of Rove-era dinosaurs hopelessly stuck in the hyperpartisan past. We did everything we could, but they just wouldn't budge. Very sad.

At least, I hope one or more of these things is true, since it would mean there's at least some thinking going on about this stuff. My real guess, though, is that Obama and the Dems are still living in a fantasy world. "How long do you think Obama's honeymoon will last?" Marian asked me last night. "Honeymoon?" I shook my head. "I don't think he ever had one." At least, that's pretty much how it looks to me.

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