dana liebelson

Dana Liebelson

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Dana Liebelson is a reporter in Mother Jones' Washington bureau. Her work also appears in Marie Claire and The Week. In her free time, she plays electric violin and bass in a punk band.

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Nate Silver: Obama Got a Bump After Leaked Romney Video

| Fri Sep. 28, 2012 2:30 PM EDT

If the election were held today, President Obama would win more than 52 percent of the popular vote, an increase that could be attributed to the release of Mitt Romney's "47 percent" video, according to political calculus done by Nate Silver of The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight blog.

Silver charted our Romney video, along with three other events he considers the most important political news of the last month: the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, and the attack on the US Consulate in Libya. His conclusion:

By Sept. 17, the date when the video of Mr. Romney’s remarks was released and received widespread attention, the momentum from Mr. Obama’s convention appeared to have stalled (although not necessarily reversed itself). Mr. Obama led in the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points on that date, according to the "now-cast." Since then, however, Mr. Obama has gained further ground in the polls. As of Thursday, he led in the popular vote by 5.7 percentage points in the "now-cast," a gain of 1.6 percentage points since Mr. Romney’s remarks became known to the public.

Silver's chart, below, does not include the effect of the national conventions or economic trends, which makes it useful for looking at the isolated impact of the Romney videos on the 2012 presidential election. Nate Silver, The New York TimesNate Silver, The New York TimesOver the coming weeks, political pundits will likely be interested in seeing an updated version of this chart, as Romney continues to feel the aftershocks of his remarks. 

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2 Minutes with David Corn: Breaking Down the Bain Video

| Fri Sep. 28, 2012 6:00 AM EDT

The latest Mitt Romney video released by Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn doesn't address the "47 percent," but it does reveal some uncomfortable truths about how the GOP candidate viewed his role at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he founded.

Speaking in 1985 at the 20th anniversary of Bain & Company, a young Romney said: "Bain Capital is an investment partnership which was formed to invest in startup companies and ongoing companies, then to take an active hand in managing them and hopefully, five to eight years later, to harvest them at a significant profit."

In two minutes, Corn breaks down exactly why Romney's top priority at Bain wasn't creating jobs or building strong companies. He also raises the question: What makes Romney qualified to do so now as a potential president?

Have an issue or a MoJo reporter you would like us to spend two minutes with? Drop us an email at dliebelson@motherjones.com.

Music by: Mike Smirnoff
 

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