David Corn

David Corn

Washington Bureau Chief

Corn has broken stories on presidents, politicians, and other Washington players. He's written for numerous publications and is a talk show regular. His best-selling books include Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, and the Selling of the Iraq War.

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The Turnout Game

| Tue Nov. 2, 2010 12:05 PM EDT

I'll never forget watching Mary Matalin, a George H.W. Bush operative, on television on Election Day 1992 in the late afternoon or early evening, saying that Bush was sailing toward reelection, with postivie GOP turnout being reported in key areas. She said this with a straight face, though every political professional in Washington and elsewhere already had access to the exit polls showing a Bill Clinton victory. Matalin knew that her guy was toast, but she was soldiering on. Which is what political ops do on E-Day. One way they do that is hyping turnout indicators that are—big shocker—favorable to their side. Consequently, the email I just received from the Democratic Party is not surprising. It notes:

The Ohio Democratic Party reports that they've already exceeded the number of volunteers they had hoped to deploy for Election Day GOTV activities.

   * In last 3 Days alone Ohio Democratic volunteers filled more than 9,000 volunteer shifts, made 2.1 million calls and knocked n nearly 400,000 doors

   * In the Democratic stronghold of Mahoning County, turnout for the last day of Early Voting surprised even Board of Election Director Tom McCabe, who said "We had lines all day long, 40 people deep at times. It's amazing. It was our busiest day yet for voting at the counter."

   * Students at universities across Ohio did literature drops until 1:00 am and then woke up at 5:00 am to begin their door-hanger shifts.

It also says:

* There was "a late Democratic surge in early voting in Florida, particularly among AfricanAmericans."

* "Poll workers are reporting “shocking” turnout in Democratic Strongholds in the Lehigh Valley" in Pennsylvania.

* "Dozens of students launched canvasses and 'dorm storms' from the Indiana University student union in Bloomington, where Democrats already lead in early voting."

* "Election judges are reporting long lines, greater than expected turnout in Dem stronghold Prince George's County" in Maryland.

So much good news? In the intelligence field, they call this "cherry-picking." It's what pols do before it's time to count the pits.

UPDATE: A new DNC email reports:

ILLINOIS
   * A disproportionately high number of  Cook County voters cast early vote ballots—44.2% of early vote ballots cast statewide came from this county despite representing only 38.5% of all registered voters in Illinois.
MISSOURI
   * Election judges in St. Louis say lines this am as long as 2008 in St. Louis: http://bit.ly/cyw7Gn
INDIANA
   * Strongly democratic South Bend Indiana is seeing very high voting turnout http://bit.ly/dwpTcI
PENNSYLVANIA
   * Reports in from Pittsburgh. High volunteer turn out and lots of folks out on the doors now: http://bit.ly/dne7Jn
   * In Philadelphia, local election officials are reporting strong turnout for an off-year election: http://bit.ly/bDI1Za
GEORGIA
   * 45 plus minute waits reported in heavily African American area of DeKalb County in the metro Atlanta.  Delays not caused by anything at polls, but rather people in line.
CONNECTICUT
   * Long lines in Bridgeport, a key community for many of the competitive races in CT: http://bit.ly/dwGvLC
NEW JERSEY
   * We’re getting a report that a parking lot at a polling station is so full, people are having to driving home and walking to the polls. No irregularities have been reported, just high turnout in the Garden State.  
NORTH CAROLINA:
   * There are several reports of big turnout in urban areas across North Carolina. Voters and elections officials report a steady turnout at the polls Tuesday morning on a day that some political experts say could be turf-changing for the country. http://bit.ly/cPgxqh

Another DNC update:

OHIO
   * In the first two hours of calling, Dem volunteers have made 246,343 phone calls to targeted voters – that’s a blistering 2,052 calls per MINUTE or 34 calls per SECOND.
   * More than 1,550 canvassers are now going door-to-door through our targeted communities, making sure that these voters cast their ballots today for Democrats.
PENNSYLVANIA
   * In the Lehigh Valley, election officials say they've seen three times the number of voters they're used to at this time of the day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYndhPYvHMc
   * According to NBC Philly, reports from around the state indicate that voter turnout is higher than expected: http://bit.ly/dnVKJa
ILLINOIS
   * Voters are reporting that there is heavy turnout in voting locations in the Chicago and the suburbs– even before 7:00 AM: http://huff.to/aiZTZL
KENTUCKY
   *Turnout in Democratic heavy Louisville is higher than expected according to local elections officials. http://bit.ly/cAXchu. VIDEO: http://bit.ly/adoTcX

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DC Ticker on ABC News: Obama, sell; Axelrod, sell

| Tue Nov. 2, 2010 9:41 AM EDT

I've previously explained the DC Ticker I compile most days, which is now being featured on ABC News' website show, Political Punch, hosted by Jake Tapper. Here are the final (and perhaps too obvious) pre-election picks featured on this week's PP:

Pelosi, sell. The first woman to become Speaker of the House—and the first woman, it seems, to lose the position.

Reid, sell. Even if the Senate majority leader beats Sharron Angle, he's so weakened that some Democrats will consider a mutiny.

David Axelrod, sell. Blame the message man.

Obama, sell. Is the Age of Obama over? How does he change the script for Act II?

Hillary Clinton, buy. In a clever move, she left town for two weeks. So it isn't about her.

You can receive the almost-daily DC Ticker report by following my Twitter feed. (#DCticker is the Twitter hashtag.) Please feel free to argue with my selections—though all decisions of the judges are final. And please feel free to make suggestions for buy or sell orders in the comments below or on Twitter (by replying to @DavidCornDC). Don't forget: DC Ticker is merely an advisory service. It and its author cannot be held liable for any investments made in politicians, policy wonks, or government officials on the basis of the information presented. Invest in politics at your own risk.

DC Ticker on ABC News: Tom Donohue, buy; Joe Miller, sell

| Tue Oct. 26, 2010 9:24 AM EDT

I've previously explained the DC Ticker I compile most days, which is now being featured on ABC News' website show, Political Punch, hosted by Jake Tapper. Here are the picks featured on this week's PP:

Tom Donohue, buy. His Chamber of Commerce is not your father's Chamber of Commerce. No matter how many House and Senate seats the Republicans gain next week, Donohue's standing as a DC powerbroker goes up.

Joe Miller, sell. The Tea Party Republican Senate candidate in Alaska used to be a local government attorney, but he left that post under a cloud. Now a judge has ordered his personnel records made public. Will any skeletons come dancing out of the closet before Halloween—and the election?

Mike Huckabee, buy. He's blasting Karl Rove and other Republican elitists for being dismissive of Christine O'Donnell. This is not about defending an ex-witch. It's about making a play for social conservative voters in the 2012 Republican primaries.

Denis McDonough, buy. He was just named deputy national security adviser. Whether Obama is a one- or two-term president, there's still time for McDonough to reach the top national security job at the White House.

Tom Coburn, buy. Unless a Democratic miracle occurs, there will be more tea party Republicans in the Senate after the election, and that could earn Coburn, a conservative senator from Oklahoma, a spot in the Senate Republican leadership, as its ambassador to those extreme-as-we-want-to-be Senate newbies.

You can receive the almost-daily DC Ticker report by following my Twitter feed. (#DCticker is the Twitter hashtag.) Please feel free to argue with my selections—though all decisions of the judges are final. And please feel free to make suggestions for buy or sell orders in the comments below or on Twitter (by replying to @DavidCornDC). Don't forget: DC Ticker is merely an advisory service. It and its author cannot be held liable for any investments made in politicians, policy wonks, or government officials on the basis of the information presented. Invest in politics at your own risk.

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