Ryan Jacobs

Ryan Jacobs

Senior Editorial Fellow

Ryan Jacobs is a senior editorial fellow for Mother Jones in San Francisco. His work has also appeared in the Bay Citizen, Sierra magazine, the Point Reyes Light, The Chicago Reporter, and others. During his short reporting career, his coverage has ranged from the discovery of a potentially new species of phytoplankton to the scene of a quintuple homicide.

Get my RSS |

Advertise on MotherJones.com

Afghan War Games: Computer Scientists Accurately Predict Attacks

| Mon Jul. 30, 2012 12:35 PM PDT
A soldier wounded by a roadside bomb is evacuated from the Kandahar province

A military analyst hunches over a laptop. His screen flashes with real-time data of the war unfolding on the sands outside his base. The machine hums and then quickly spits out a color-coded map forecasting impending violence. Eyeing the contours, he radios a caravan of humvees and informs the soldiers that, according to the calculations, they will be ambushed in roughly twelve hours. The unit veers onto a bushwhacked road, lies in wait, and at the crack of dawn captures its would-be attackers without taking any injuries.

A sci-fi writer's napkin scribblings? Or a peek at the future? Well, according to research published earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, such a scene might not be far off.

Drawing from the 77,000 confidential US military logs released in Wikileaks' Afghan War Diary, researchers compiled data tracking the activity of armed opposition groups (AOG) in Afghanistan between 2004 and 2009. They then used "spatiotemporal" statistics to model the intensity and location of future violence, down to the provincial level, through the end of 2010 (a year after the leaked data ends). A comparison of the results with safety reports from the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office showed that their predictions were strikingly accurate:    

Study: Los Angeles Average Temps to Rise 4 to 5 Degrees by 2041

| Tue Jun. 26, 2012 3:02 PM PDT
"Extreme Hot Days" to Rise for LA

A team of UCLA scientists recently fed about 20 global climate models into powerful supercomputers to calculate just how much Los Angeles-area temperatures might increase over the next few decades. After months of complex computing—about eight times as many individual calculations as there are grains of sand on the West Coast of the United States—the scientists' computers spit out some troubling projections

By 2041, the UCLA team found, temperatures in Los Angeles will rise by an average of 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. The number of "extreme hot days"—days with temperatures above 95 degrees—will triple in the downtown area and will quadruple or more in inland valleys, deserts, and mountains.

Dramatic shifts will occur even if the world manages to successfully curtail greenhouse gas emissions. In the unlikely event that the world starts to get its emissions problems under control, Los Angeles temperatures will still reach 70 percent of the study's "business-as-usual" levels, the researchers found.

Just Like in "The Wire," Real FBI Crime Stats Are "Juked"

| Tue Jun. 19, 2012 2:49 PM PDT

In the particularly dramatic scene of HBO's The Wire above, a group of Baltimore police brass is instructed to artificially deflate felony and murder statistics or be ousted from their jobs. "I don't care how you do it, just fuckin' do it," snarls Baltimore Police Deputy Commissioner of Operations William A. Rawls.

Inside a lecture room at John Jay College in New York City two summers ago, Molloy College criminologist and retired New York City Police Department Captain John Eterno lectured a group of FBI agents about nearly identical scenarios unfolding within the NYPD's walls. He and his John Jay colleague Eli Silverman had recently published a detailed survey (that later became a book) of 400 retired NYPD commanders who served under the CompStat system, a computer program used to compare crime rates and performance across precincts. 

Most of the commanders claimed they were "under enormous pressure" to routinely underreport or misclassify serious crimes, which were then excluded from city's crime reports to the state and FBI. "Once you have one 'CompStat' meeting where they're screaming and yelling at you about your crime numbers," Eterno explains, "you get the hint and then you do what you can to make sure those numbers are looking the way they want them to."

After the presentation, some of the more junior FBI agents approached Eterno. "This is falling on deaf ears," they whispered, referring to their superiors.