2007 - %3, January

FYI - Christopher Dodd is Running for President

| Thu Jan. 11, 2007 11:09 AM PST

Adjust your voting plans accordingly. So you know, Dodd is Connecticut's senior senator, and may be running now because, at 64, he is reaching the generally-accepted outer age limit for a presidential candidate (hint hint, Mr. McCain). You can learn more about Dodd at his campaign website or suggest music for him to listen to on his "DoddPod" here.

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King David Returns

| Thu Jan. 11, 2007 10:15 AM PST

If Bush was serious last night, America's destiny in Iraq is in the hands of Lieutenant-General David Petraeus, who is now leading US forces there. The big battle is to be waged counter-insurgency style inside Baghdad, probably most importantly against Bani Sadr's supposed 60,000 guerrillas.

This sounds like the Battle of Algiers where, in the 1950s, the French Foreign Legion brutally attacked and overwhelmed the FLN guerrillas holed up in the Casbah. In the end, the French lost, with de Gaulle overseeing a peace.

Counter-insurgency has a long, unpleasant history. The French tried it in Vietnam after the second world war, actually planting their own troops into villages and intermarrying with the Vietnamese. It didn't work and the French were routed at Dien Bien Phu. Ed Lansdale, who worked with the OSS and later became the CIA's man in Vietnam, assisted the French in their losing battle, then went on to try and build up the South Vietnamese military.

Lansdale has often been called the true father of American counter-insurgency. He operated in the Philippines, living with Magsaysay before he became president, and was part of Operation Mongoose, Jack Kennedy's plan to overthrow Castro. He was involved in attempts to assassinate Castro as well. Under Kennedy he ended up as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations. When Reagan became president, Special Operations people in the military, along with scholars at the Heritage Foundation, urged U.S. policy makers to employ counter-insurgency tactics, or what was then called irregular warfare, in Central America. The Contras were the result.

Counter-insurgency depends on good intelligence and a supportive local population -- neither of which the U.S. has in Iraq, certainly not in Baghdad.

The general idea, put forward in the Iraq Study Group report, is to embed American troops within the Iraqi army. That presupposes the Iraqi army can be trusted not to trick the Americans into an ambush and/or to provide decent intelligence, which seems questionable.

General Petraeus is well-liked, considered to be a successful commander in Northern Iraq. He wrote a new counterinsurgency manual for the U.S. Army and Marine Corps. "Western militaries too often neglect the study of insurgency," he writes in the manual. "They falsely believe that armies trained to win large conventional wars are automatically prepared to win small unconventional ones."

"In fact," the General continues, "some capabilities required for conventional success... may be of limited utility or even counterproductive in counterinsurgency operations. Nonetheless, conventional forces beginning counterinsurgency operations often try to use these capabilities to defeat insurgents; they almost always fail."

Following, thanks to the Globe and Mail, are
Petraeus's 14 Observations on Iraq:

1. Do not try to do too much with your own hands.
2. Act quickly, because every army of liberation has a half-life.
3. Money is ammunition.
4. Increasing the number of stakeholders is a critical component to success.
5. Analyze "costs and benefits" before each operation.
6. Intelligence is the key to success.
7. Everyone must do nation-building.
8. Help build institutions, not just units.
9. Cultural awareness is a force multiplier.
10. Success in a counterinsurgency requires more than just military operations.
11. Ultimate success depends on local leaders.
12. Remember the strategic corporals and strategic lieutenants.
13. There is no substitute for flexible, adaptable leaders.
14. A leader's most important task is to set the right tone.

American News Media Continues Its Decline

| Thu Jan. 11, 2007 10:08 AM PST

Last spring, I wrote about MSNBC hosts Ron Reagan and Monica Crowley's on-air statement about the "triviality" of issues like Supreme Court nominations, and--even worse--MSNBC senior producer Tom Maciulis's written revelation that news about lobbying scandals, the Bolton nomination and court appointments were things he "didn't give a flying fig about." Though it was obvious to me that no one in charge at the network cared too much about news, it was nevertheless shocking to hear both the anchors and the producer come right out and say so.

Worse still, the statements of these "news" network officials caused no stir at all. I don't think anyone else even blogged about them, but they put a chill up my spine that has never gone away. Anyone who attempts to find out what is going on in the world knows that reliance on American mainstream news media will get her nowhere. When George W. Bush ran for the office of president in 2000, author, columnist and Texan Molly Ivins begged her fellow media employees, "Check the record!" They didn't. Everything from Bush's insider trading to his questionable military record to the mess he made of the Texas educational system and the environmental destruction he allowed industry to wreak on his state--all were virtually ignored by mainstream newspapers and television networks.

It should come as no surprise, then, that ABC's Good Morning America has hired Glenn Beck as a regular commentator. In plugging Beck's credentials, the show's senior executive producer announced that Beck "is a leading cultural commentator with a distinct voice."

Sure. His "distinct voice" recently struck Rep. Keith Ellison, our first Muslim Congressperson, with ""I have been nervous about this interview with you, because what I feel like saying is, 'Sir, prove to me that you are not working with our enemies.'"

It was Beck who said to Diane Sawyer, "Christmas is really about...the death of [Jesus], redemption...and having a second bite at the apple. Who's offended by that?" He "celebrated" the death of Abu Musab-Zarqawi with a "Zarqawi bacon cake," predicted that we may have to "nuke" the entire Middle East, made fun of the names of missing Egyptian students, and described New Orleanians who could not or did not leave when Katrina hit as "scumbags." And in a rant against so-called "political correctness," Beck became so upset at the thought of wall signs being done in Braille that he quipped, "I'm going to put in Braille on the coffee pot...'Pot is hot.'"

Hate sells. It's a pity that news doesn't.

American News Media Continues Its Decline

| Thu Jan. 11, 2007 10:08 AM PST

Last spring, I wrote about MSNBC hosts Ron Reagan and Monica Crowley's on-air statement about the "triviality" of issues like Supreme Court nominations, and--even worse--MSNBC senior producer Tom Maciulis's written revelation that news about lobbying scandals, the Bolton nomination and court appointments were things he "didn't give a flying fig about." Though it was obvious to me that no one in charge at the network cared too much about news, it was nevertheless shocking to hear both the anchors and the producer come right out and say so.

Worse still, the statements of these "news" network officials caused no stir at all. I don't think anyone else even blogged about them, but they put a chill up my spine that has never gone away. Anyone who attempts to find out what is going on in the world knows that reliance on American mainstream news media will get her nowhere. When George W. Bush ran for the office of president in 2000, author, columnist and Texan Molly Ivins begged her fellow media employees, "Check the record!" They didn't. Everything from Bush's insider trading to his questionable military record to the mess he made of the Texas educational system and the environmental destruction he allowed industry to wreak on his state--all were virtually ignored by mainstream newspapers and television networks.

It should come as no surprise, then, that ABC's Good Morning America has hired Glenn Beck as a regular commentator. In plugging Beck's credentials, the show's senior executive producer announced that Beck "is a leading cultural commentator with a distinct voice."

Sure. His "distinct voice" recently struck Rep. Keith Ellison, our first Muslim Congressperson, with ""I have been nervous about this interview with you, because what I feel like saying is, 'Sir, prove to me that you are not working with our enemies.'"

It was Beck who said to Diane Sawyer, "Christmas is really about...the death of [Jesus], redemption...and having a second bite at the apple. Who's offended by that?" He "celebrated" the death of Abu Musab-Zarqawi with a "Zarqawi bacon cake," predicted that we may have to "nuke" the entire Middle East, made fun of the names of missing Egyptian students, and described New Orleanians who could not or did not leave when Katrina hit as "scumbags." And in a rant against so-called "political correctness," Beck became so upset at the thought of wall signs being done in Braille that he quipped, "I'm going to put in Braille on the coffee pot...'Pot is hot.'"

Hate sells. It's a pity that news doesn't.

"No Matter How Much You Hate Bush..." (What's Up With the San Francisco Chronicle?)

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 11:43 PM PST

Generally, I have a pretty low regard of the San Francisco Chronicle. I want to support my local paper but...I just can't. It's the flabby writing, the columnists who don't pick up the phone, the mindless cheerleading of the wine and food industry, the substitution of PC bell ringing for real reporting on race or poverty, the subordination of the Chronicle's home page to the (also bad, and shamelessly clunky) SFGate entertainment portal...in sum, it tends to reinforce every stereotype of yuppie Bay Area solipsism. All of which I would forgive, really, if it just had some damn edge. Of any kind.

(Following exceptions noted: The Balco stuff, that was good. Ok, and the homeless series ; I'd take issue with pieces of it, even premises of it, but they pulled out some stops.)

But I digress. What the hell does this have to do with Bush?

Well, I'll tell you. I was about to talk up a great piece by the Chron's D.C. Bureau Chief that was funny, to the point, analytical...but in the minutes that it has taken me to write this post, that story has fallen off the SFGate/Chron homepage. I dove into the architecture for more than 10 minutes...but I still can't find it. So piece by DC Bureau Chief, on a decision by our fair leader to send more troops into Iraq, written for a city with strong feelings on the matter...can't find it.

And that, in a nutshell, is the San Francisco Chronicle.

In my search for the missing Bush analysis piece, I did find following story, however: "New Year's nightmare for visiting Yale singers". Which is actually quite juicy, if you're into local politics: Matt Gonzalez meets "Fajitagate" meets PacHeights scion deploying his peeps to beat up Yalies.

Though, on that last point, these paragraphs— "But witnesses said one of the uninvited guests -- who happens to be the son of a prominent Pacific Heights family -- pulled out his cell phone and said, "I'm 20 deep. My boys are coming. According to Rapagnani and others, the Yale kids barely made it around the corner when they were intercepted by a van full of young men."—make me wonder why this "son of prominent Pacific Heights family" was not named.

And also, what's up with Pac Heights boys rolling up on Yalies? They'll all work for McKinsey one day...

"No Matter How Much You Hate Bush..." (What's Up With the San Francisco Chronicle?)

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 11:43 PM PST

Generally, I have a pretty low regard of the San Francisco Chronicle. I want to support my local paper but...I just can't. It's the flabby writing, the columnists who don't pick up the phone, the mindless cheerleading of the wine and food industry, the substitution of PC bell ringing for real reporting on race or poverty, the subordination of the Chronicle's home page to the (also bad, and shamelessly clunky) SFGate entertainment portal...in sum, it tends to reinforce every stereotype of yuppie Bay Area solipsism. All of which I would forgive, really, if it just had some damn edge. Of any kind.

(Following exceptions noted: The Balco stuff, that was good. Ok, and the homeless series ; I'd take issue with pieces of it, even premises of it, but they pulled out some stops.)

But I digress. What the hell does this have to do with Bush?

Well, I'll tell you. I was about to talk up a great piece by the Chron's D.C. Bureau Chief that was funny, to the point, analytical...but in the minutes that it has taken me to write this post, that story has fallen off the SFGate/Chron homepage. I dove into the architecture for more than 10 minutes...but I still can't find it. So piece by DC Bureau Chief, on a decision by our fair leader to send more troops into Iraq, written for a city with strong feelings on the matter...can't find it.

And that, in a nutshell, is the San Francisco Chronicle.

In my search for the missing Bush analysis piece, I did find following story, however: "New Year's nightmare for visiting Yale singers". Which is actually quite juicy, if you're into local politics: Matt Gonzalez meets "Fajitagate" meets PacHeights scion deploying his peeps to beat up Yalies.

Though, on that last point, these paragraphs— "But witnesses said one of the uninvited guests -- who happens to be the son of a prominent Pacific Heights family -- pulled out his cell phone and said, "I'm 20 deep. My boys are coming. According to Rapagnani and others, the Yale kids barely made it around the corner when they were intercepted by a van full of young men."—make me wonder why this "son of prominent Pacific Heights family" was not named.

And also, what's up with Pac Heights boys rolling up on Yalies? They'll all work for McKinsey one day...

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Bush's Insight: No Magic Formula

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 7:18 PM PST

It took four minutes or so for 9/11 to come up in Bush's oral report, I mean speech, tonight to the nation on his plan for Iraq. He then went on to say that he and his advisers talked and all agreed that there's "no magic formula" for ending the violence and getting out of Iraq. Wow, I totally thought that was why he took so long to come out with a plan!

Seriously though, the President predictably offered his usual: that we're changing course by staying put, and then some. He didn't use the buzz word of the week, "surge," but he did say it was a "mistake" not to have enough troops in Iraq to secure neighborhoods. No word on where the increase of 22,000 new troops, five brigades he said, will come from. Given the already stretched armed forces -- and the political suicide that would commence with the D-word (Draft) -- redeployment, stop loss, and still looser recruiting standards are surely on the horizon.

Bush emphasized that the situation in Iraq was unacceptable to the American people, and unacceptable to him. He also said that failure in Iraq was unacceptable and that the blame for mistakes thus far lie with him. He did not, though, go so far as to say that his own mistakes were unacceptable. I mean, you have to accept some things, right? After all, there's no magic formula.

Mitch McConnell--Another Republican With Memory Problems

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 6:15 PM PST

In 1993, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was one of seventy-six senators who voted for an amendment to restrict funding for U.S. military personnel in Somalia. The amendment restricted funds through March 31, 1994, with the caveat that funding could be resumed only if Congress provided specific authorization to do so. McConnell not only voted for the amendment, but spoke in favor of it on the Senate floor.

Yesterday, however, Sen. McConnell said that he was voting against the Kennedy bill because he thought it was inappropriate, but also because "I don't think Congress has the authority to do it (restrict funding)."

Congress, of course, has that authority, as McConnell certainly should know. But if his memory is really that bad, perhaps he should step down.

Nuclear Power No Global Warming Solution, But Green SatNav Might Help

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 4:49 PM PST

Just as we learn that 2006 was the warmest on record in the U.S., a study published in today's Nature shows that storing nuclear waste over the tens of thousands, let alone hundreds of thousands, of years will be difficult because the storage containers are transformed by the radiation. Scientists from Cambridge University found that one of the ceramiclike materials favored by engineers, zirconium silicate, turned to glass in just 1,400 years.

Because many radioactive substances continue emitting radiation for a very long time, the containment must persist for an awesome duration. Plutonium-239, one of the most deadly by-products of nuclear power, has a half-life of 24,000 years, meaning that only half of any initial batch has decayed over this time. Ideally it should stay put for about ten times as long: a quarter of a million years.

So nuclear is still a big problem for a lot of reasons, and not the no-brainer fix some would hope. Odds are, the solution will come in smaller packages cobbled inventively together. NewScientist reports that a researcher at the Lund Institute of Technology in Sweden has been testing a satnav system programmed to work out the most efficient and least polluting route to drive.

[Eva] Ericsson and her colleagues report that the average fuel saving on the 22 streets was 8.2 per cent compared with journeys planned by other methods… None of the streets was particularly congested, however, and Ericsson estimates that savings on most journeys would be closer to 4 per cent.

Many Alaskans would welcome even the immediate 4 percent savings. Patricia Cochran, director of the Alaska Native Science Commission, and chairwoman of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, reports to the BBC how native communities above the Arctic Circle are struggling to adapt.

With thinner sea ice arriving later and leaving earlier in the year, coastal communities are experiencing more intensified storms with larger waves than they have ever experienced. This threat is being compounded by the loss of permafrost which has kept river banks from eroding too quickly. The waves are larger because there is no sea ice to diminish their intensity, slamming against the west and northern shores of Alaska, causing severe storm driven coastal erosion. It has become so serious that several coastal villages are now actively trying to figure out where to move entire communities. While the world's politicians and media focus their attention on the big picture of agreeing the best way to curb global climate change, we are left to pick up the pieces from wasted years of inaction. The cost to move one small village of 300 people ranges from $130m (£66m) to a high of $200m (£102m), even if the distance is a few miles, because moving means reconstructing entire water, electrical, road, airport and/or barge landing infrastructure, as well as schools and clinics.

Dear Troops, Michael Ledeen Wishes You Would Get Off Your Butts and Win the War

| Wed Jan. 10, 2007 2:41 PM PST

Kos highlights the latest National Review column from uber-hawk and phony intelligence-peddler Michael Ledeen, wherein, amongst a whole bunch of craziness about attacking Iran and Syria -- Ledeen actually writes that the way to show the Iraqis we have a "will to win" is to "go after the Iranians and the Syrians." I presume if we could do that effectively we would just "go after" the bad guys in Iraq instead, but I'm not a fancy-pants think tank scholar -- Ledeen manages to do something I don't think anyone on the left has ever, ever done.

He calls out the troops in Iraq for not fighting hard enough.

We've got lots of soldiers sitting on megabases all over Iraq. They should be out and about, some of them embedded, others just moving around, tracking the terrorists, hunting them down. I don't know how many guys and gals are sitting in air-conditioned quarters and drinking designer coffee, but it's a substantial number. Enough of that.

I wish Michael Ledeen would head over to Iraq and deliver that message to our men and women in uniform personally. I'll bet he'd get some designer coffee thrown in his face.