2012 - %3, July

Friday Cat Blogging - 27 July 2012

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 3:04 PM EDT

I'm afraid I have heartbreaking news today. On Tuesday night I left the back door open and apparently Inkblot slipped out during the night. He never returned.

We've scoured the neighborhood, put up flyers, and checked with the local shelter, but there's no sign of him. It's inexplicable. It's not the first time I've failed to close all the doors at night, and never in his life has he ever strayed more than a couple hundred feet from home. I don't know what happened this time. I just can't figure it out.

I kept hoping he'd come trotting through the door any moment, sporting his usual quizzical expression, wondering what I was so worried about and asking when dinner was going to be served. Then he'd go back to stealing my chair out from under me and demanding to be held upside-down so he could suck on my armpit. I kept hoping I wouldn't have to write this post. But he hasn't come back, and if he were anywhere nearby he'd have returned long ago. We haven't given up hope entirely, but at this point I'm afraid we've lost him for good. As you can imagine, it's been a very sad week around here. He was the best of cats.  

I have two pictures today. The top one is the first picture I took of Inkblot after we brought him home from the shelter on July 10, 1999. He was about two months old at the time. The second one is from Sunday. It's the last picture I ever took of him. He was 13.

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Modern Music is Tedious and Unimaginative

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 2:27 PM EDT

I'm not going to pretend to understand this, but a group of Spanish scientists say they now have empirical evidence that modern pop music is boring:

We find three important trends in the evolution of musical discourse: the restriction of pitch sequences (with metrics showing less variety in pitch progressions), the homogenization of the timbral palette (with frequent timbres becoming more frequent), and growing average loudness levels.

Basically, musicians are using fewer and simpler note sequences, less variety in timbre, and then making up for it by cranking up the volume. The chart on the right, which is really the only comprehensible one in the paper, shows the evolution of timbral variety, peaking in the 60s and then dropping off dramatically every year since.

Later, during a Q&A with neighborhood kids, the researchers added, ¡Quítese mi césped!

Presidential Race is Too Close to Call

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 12:33 PM EDT

Earlier this morning I predicted that it wouldn't be long before political scientists began plugging second-quarter GDP numbers into the election models to figure out who's going to win in November. I predicted correctly! First out of the gate — first that I've run across so far, anyway — is Seth Masket, who provides us with the chart on the right. I've added the horizontal dashed red line to show exactly where the latest numbers put us, and the news is slightly bad for President Obama: Masket's regression shows Obama winning about 49.7% of the popular vote. Masket provides all the proper caveats:

This isn't the strongest correlate with presidential vote shares. Real disposable income does a bit better, as do measures that incorporate third quarter growth. But still, by itself, this measure explains 39% of the variation in vote shares.

You'll notice that there's a red dotted line projecting the 2012 presidential vote based on GDP growth this year (an average of 1.75%). It basically hits the trendline right at 50%, continuing to indicate a really, really close contest. Notably, we're experiencing slower economic growth than George W. Bush had to contend with in 2004 or his father faced when he lost reelection in 1992.

Of course, I'm not making a forecast (political scientists are apparently terrible at that). I'm just suggesting that what we've seen so far this year from the economy is consistent with a very close election, and that things with more modest influences on the vote (campaign spending, voter turnout efforts, new voter ID requirements, etc.) could end up making all the difference.

Well, maybe Masket isn't making a forecast, but that won't stop the rest of us. Unfortunately, the numbers really are too close to be meaningful. It's not as if Obama is winning or losing by five percentage points or something. Given the limits of the model and the tightness of the numbers, Masket is right: it's still anyone's race. This year, at least, it looks as if the economic fundamentals are so evenly balanced that all the other campaign stuff really is going to make the difference. Just the way the media likes it.

POSTSCRIPT: Do you want my prediction? Sure you do! My guess is that the economic fundamentals really are on a knife-edge this year. However, voters usually keep parties in the Oval Office for two terms and toss them out after that. So if your party has held the presidency for one term, you have about a two-point built-in advantage. If your party has already held the presidency for two terms, you have about a two-point disadvantage.

It doesn't always work out that way, but take a look at all the outliers at the top right of the chart: they're all candidates running for second terms. Now take a look at the outliers below the green line. They're all candidates running for third, fourth, fifth, or even sixth terms (poor old Adlai in 1952).

Obama is running for a second term. So I'd add about two points to Masket's number and forecast a popular vote majority of around 51% to 51.5%. That's my current guess, unless something really huge happens between now and November.

UPDATE: Using a similar methodology to mine, Alan Abramowitz's model gives Obama about 50.5% of the popular vote.

Yesterday's Romney Gaffe Was Real, Not Fabricated

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 11:47 AM EDT

Mitt Romney's verbal stumbles in London yesterday probably won't have much long-term impact on the presidential campaign. Still, Dave Weigel points out something interesting about them. The best-known gaffes of the past few months have been mostly fabricated by the opposing campaign trying to make hay out of something that only barely exists. But not this time:

Compare this to what the British press has termed the "Romneyshambles." By chance, I was in a BBC studio yesterday morning to do a radio interview with another outlet. Non-reporter staff — people who did not cover the campaign, much less work on it — were chattering about Mitt Romney. The general tone was that, yes, they'd had some problems staging the Olympics, but that was up to them to talk about, not some American who'd run his own Olympics 10 years earlier. As I waited, I saw Prime Minister David Cameron — who is, remember, the first Conservative PM since 1997 — make a backhanded slap at Romney. "Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere," he said. Later, like everybody else, I saw London Mayor Boris Johnson — also a Conservative! — make fun of "some guy named Mitt Romney" in front of a massive Olympics crowd.

There was no rival campaign cooking this up. There was no social media director making sure people tweeted it, or hashtagged it, or Google+'d it, if Google+ is still a thing. British Conservatives and media actually got pissed off at what they heard as an unhelpful insult. We've suffered through so many phony gaffes, we'd forgotten what a real one looked like.

That's an interesting point. As interesting as we're likely to get, anyway. And who knows? The fact that it's real, and that Romney followed it up with a series of other odd, Palinesque gaffes, has the potential to make a small dent in Romney's only real strength as a candidate: the notion that he's smart, disciplined, and well-briefed. Not so much, it turns out.

But for my money, if you're looking for a classic "gaffe," the kind that reinforces what everyone thinks of a candidate already, it was this cringe-inducing response to a question about the dressage competition:

I have to tell you, this is Ann’s sport. I’m not even sure which day the sport goes on. She will get the chance to see it, I will not be watching the event. I hope her horse does well.

This was painful to hear. I mean, what would any normal husband do if his wife were involved in an Olympic competition, even one he personally found boring? He'd attend! He'd cheer! That's what married people do. But Romney has been taking some flak for being a rich dude lately, and he's obviously calculated that being associated with a multimillion-dollar sport — and an obscure, sort of prissy one at that — wouldn't do his campaign any good. So he threw his own wife under the bus. Mitt Romney is willing to be whatever the electorate wants him to be, and apparently he crunched the numbers in his head and decided that America's heartland voters didn't want him to be associated with his wife's sport.

It's a trivial thing, but still, in its own trivial way it's really contemptible behavior, even for a guy who long ago decided he'd do anything to become president. The first time I read that quote I recoiled, and I still do a day later even after I've seen it a dozen times. What a gutless little weasel.

Later Today We'll Finally Know Who's Going to Win in November

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 11:04 AM EDT

GDP was up 1.5% last quarter. That's not so good. On the other hand, it's better than expected. And first quarter GDP was revised upward.

Later today people will all start diving into the numbers and trying to build detailed narratives around the housing sector or the tradeable sector or the state of the household appliances market or whatnot. But you know what this really means? We now have numbers for all the political scientists to plug into their election models so they can tell us who's going to win in November. Isn't that exciting? 

We're Still at War: Photo of the Day for July 27, 2012

Fri Jul. 27, 2012 10:25 AM EDT

A Paratrooper from the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division, searches for improvised explosive devices along Highway 1 in Ghazni Province, Afghanistan. Dismounted troops are often better at finding wires leading to IEDs. US Army photo by Capt. Thomas Cieslak.

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This Week in Dark Money

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 6:00 AM EDT

A quick look at the week that was in the world of political dark money...

the money shot

quote of the week

"We've put the IRS in charge [without the tools it needs]."
—Campaign finance expert Donald Tobin, a witness at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing Wednesday. At issue was how the IRS will investigate whether so-called "social welfare" groups are violating their tax-exempt 501(c)(4) status by making political activity their primary purpose. A recent Treasury Department audit criticized the IRS for its poor response to complaints about the groups, but the IRS has said it will consider rule changes to crack down on abuses—just don't expect anything new in time for the 2012 election.

 

attack ad of the week

On Wednesday, the pro-Obama super-PAC Priorities USA Action unleashed an Olympics-themed ad attacking Mitt Romney for outsourcing jobs and stowing away money in offshore tax havens. But the ad contained a copyrighted image of Romney during his time as chief executive of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, and quickly drew a protest from the International Olympics Committee. YouTube pulled the ad, and Priorities USA Action will not be able to air it on TV. Meanwhile, pro-Romney super-PAC Restore Our Future plans to spend $7.2 million on ads during the 2012 Olympics; the Obama campaign (which is formally unaffiliated with Priorities USA Action) plans to spend up to $6.5 million.YouTube via Yahoo! NewsYouTube via Yahoo! News

 

stat of the week

$2 million: Total donations to pro-Romney super-PAC Restore Our Future from the other Koch brother, Bill, who has steered clear of his siblings' shadowy fundraising network. It remains to be seen if Bill, whose net worth is a reported $4 billion, will consider this investment better than the $68 million he spent to win the America's Cup yacht race in 1992. (He later told ESPN about that victory, "Financially, I would say win or lose, it's not worth it.")

 

super-pacs of the week

Over at Politico, Kenneth Vogel reports on the "dawn of the mommy and daddy PACs"—that is, super-PACs funded heavily by the parents of candidates who are often also involved in their children's campaigns. Their relationships, both familial and political, test the limits of campaign rules that ban coordination between candidates and super-PACs. An early example of the phenomenon was the $2.1 million that Jon Huntsman Sr., poured into Our Destiny PAC, which supported his son's ill-fated presidential bid. In Seattle, Democrat Laura Ruderman's congressional campaign aired an ad last week vowing to protect Obamacare that starred Ruderman's mother, Margaret Rothschild, who is a cancer survivor. The following day, Rothschild donated $115,000 to a super-PAC supporting her daughter, who claimed that she "had no idea" what her mom was up to. Here's the campaign ad Rothschild appeared in:

 

more mojo dark money coverage

Super-PACs Can't Give $1 Million to a Congressman. But This One Did: The Republican Governors Association exploits a loophole to drop a giant campaign gift on Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.
Romney's Rainmakers Dump Millions Into His Super-PAC: Together, all super-PACs raised $55 million in June—a record month.
Meet the Front Group Leading the Fight Against Taxing the Rich: Does the National Federation of Independent Businesses really represent small business owners—or billionaires?
CHART: One GOP Super-PAC Has Raised More Money Than Every Democratic Super-PAC Combined

 

more must-reads

• Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer testifies against super-PACs and lobbyists in front of a congressional committee. UPI
• Conservative dark-money group/super-PAC the American Future Fund has sent the Federal Election Commission a request to allow it to "engage in joint fundraising efforts" with candidates. Election Law Blog
• Big business sides with conservative super-PACs. iWatch News
• Ezra Klein calls the DISCLOSE Act "a minor piece of legislation" against dark-money groups; Lisa Rosenberg objects. Sunlight Foundation

PHOTOS: 111 Dogs That Can't Vote in Virginia

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 6:00 AM EDT

Voter-fraud paranoia has been known to drive Republicans to believe nonsensical, sketchy stuff.

Just take the latest installment in the epic, dystopian Dogs Are Voting saga: To hear Matt Drudge and Mitt Romney's campaign tell it, dogs—leftist dogs—are registering to vote in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

And it's the Democratic Party's wily foot soldiers who are aiding and abetting.

South Dakota Doctors Ordered To Say Abortions Lead to Suicide

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 6:00 AM EDT

A federal appeals court this week upheld South Dakota's law requiring doctors to tell women seeking abortions that they will face "increased risk of suicide ideation and suicide."

The "informed consent" law, which required doctors to read a formal script to all women seeking an abortion, has been in litigation since it passed in 2005. (The state drew much of their ideas from the legal writings of Harold Cassidy, who was profiled in Mother Jones last year.) A court had previously upheld other portions of the script, but the part about increased risk of suicide—a claim based on dubious medical research—was the last portion stuck in legal wrangling. The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals voted 7 to 4 to uphold that part of the script. From the Star Tribune:

"On its face, the suicide advisory presents neither an undue burden on abortion rights nor a violation of physicians' free speech rights," the court wrote in its majority opinion.
In September, a three-judge panel upheld U.S. District Judge Karen Schreier's decision to overturn the requirement following a lawsuit brought by Planned Parenthood. The decision Tuesday by the full 11-member court grants judgment to the state and vacates the permanent injunction against enforcing the provision.

The Star Tribune notes that the argument came down to questions over the validity of the medical claims. Most of the research out there has not found a causal relationship between abortion and increased risk of suicide. But the state presented articles claiming that there is, in fact, a "statistically significant correlation between abortion and suicide." But as Jodi Jacobson at RH Reality Check points out, there are major problems with the paper that is most often used to support that claim. We wrote earlier this year about a new study totally debunking its flawed research methods that didn't distinguish whether the women had had mental health problems before seeking an abortion. And yet abortion foes still regularlly flog the paper.

Planned Parenthood, the only abortion provider in South Dakota and the plaintiff in the lawsuit, released a statement noting that it is "extremely disappointed" in the court's decision. A spokesperson told Mother Jones the organization is exploring any further legal options it might have.

South Dakota has passed a number of anti-abortion laws in recent years—so many that the state created a separate "Life Protection Fund" to defend them in court. That includes a 2011 law requiring women to visit an anti-abortion counseling center and wait 72 hours before getting an abortion, another law that's been tied up in litigation as well.

Release the Romney Jokes!

| Fri Jul. 27, 2012 6:00 AM EDT

Forget—for the moment—Mitt Romney's tax records, his calendars, his list of bundlers, and his gubernatorial emails. What the public really needs to see are the Romney jokes.

In his 2004 book about his stewardship of the 2002 Winter Olympics, Turnaround, Romney, describing his management style, wrote the following:

We instituted a rule at Bain Capital that every meeting had to begin with a joke. I love jokes and I love laughing. The humor spread through the entire meeting: people were always on the lookout for a laugh. When Ed [Eynon] began the process of having task forces [at the Salt Lake Organizing Committee] determine which should be our guiding principles, I directed that "fun" needed to be one of them. It was. And I always tried to begin meetings with a joke, just to keep things in their proper perspective.

This is information voters must have: Romney's jokes. Did the gags make it into the minutes of the Olympics meetings? Did Romney keep a list? A set of index cards? Yes, many of the Olympics records were destroyed after the games, despite Romney's public declarations of transparency. But is it possible that some of the gags survived?

In search of the missing Romney jokes, I did contact a former Bain Capital partner, and asked if he would reveal what riddles, gags, or jests Romney shared in the boardroom to lighten things up during his days as a chieftain of high finance. Did Romney favor the knock-knock variety? Chickens crossing roads? Saucy limericks? Clergy-walking-into-bars scenarios? His official response: no comment. So you know they must be good.

Ann Romney has hailed her husband as a prankster. But a funny guy? That has yet to be seen. Reporters covering the GOP presidential candidate should demand immediate access to the Romney gags. And if Romney refuses to release his jokes, the obvious question will linger until Election Day: what's he hiding?