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This New Study Shows Sexual Assault on College Campuses Has Reached "Epidemic" Levels

| Wed May 20, 2015 4:19 PM EDT

A new study published online by the Journal of Adolescent Health suggests college sexual assault may be far more prevalent than previously believed. The study, titled "Incapacitated and Forcible Rape of College Women: Prevalence Across the First Year," which focused on first-year female students at one New York college, attempted to measure how frequently rape or attempted rape occurred by having female students fill out surveys throughout their freshman year.

Of the 483 women who completed the questionnaires, 18.6 percent reported instances of attempted rape. Incidences of rape were significantly higher when alcohol or drugs were involved.

"Sexual violence on campus has reached epidemic levels," the study's authors wrote. "During their first year in college, one in seven women will have experienced incapacitated assault or rape and nearly one in 10 will have experienced forcible assault or rape. Interventions to reduce sexual violence on campus are urgently needed."

Past studies have posted similar rates. One study reported one in five women suffering from some form of sexual violence during their college careers.  What is striking about these new findings is that they indicate high levels of such sexual assault in just a single year and early on in a woman's college experience.

As Jesse Singal at the Science of Us blog notes, scientifically measuring the frequency of sexual violence is a complex and difficult task: What one person considers to be sexual assault someone else might not.  In addition, this latest study only focused on one campus—making it impossible to generalize on a national scale.

But as recent events have shown, sexual violence on college campuses is a persistent problem. For decades, conservatives have resisted calls for campuses to better protect women by dismissing the issue. With the fallout over Rolling Stone's botched campus rape investigation only fueling detractors, it's especially important for studies like the one published by the Journal of Adolescent Health to provide solid data to legitimize the problem so that potential assaults might be avoided.

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Rand Paul's Latest Fundraiser Now Underway

| Wed May 20, 2015 3:17 PM EDT

I see from the intertubes that Sen. Rand Paul has begun another talking filibuster. This time it's to protest any legislation that extends the NSA's ability to access metadata from phone calls, even if the data is held by the phone companies and available only by court order. Paul's filibuster will annoy a lot of people, but in the end I think I agree, for once, with John McCain: "He'll get his headline and then we'll move on."

That's pretty much the lay of the land. Paul will chew up some floor time, which might end up eating into Memorial Day weekend for the Senate, but since virtually no one agrees with his position, it's simply not going to accomplish anything. I'm even a little skeptical about the headlines. Frankly, once you've done the Jimmy Stewart bit once, its entertainment value starts to plummet.

On the other hand, Paul seems to be mostly treating this as another great fundraising opportunity, and it might very well be. But that's probably all it will be.

The Science of Why New York's Bagels Taste So Damn Good

| Wed May 20, 2015 3:11 PM EDT

MANHATTAN—New York City has the best bagels in America. This is a truth handed down from generation to generation. Why are the bagels here better than the bagels in Boston, Boise, Birmingham, or even cities that begin with letters other than B? Legend has it that it has something to do with the water that's piped down here from upstate. That's never really felt right. I'm not a water scientist but it just seems like some nonsense that sounds like it could be true so what the hell, sure, it's true! Doctor Oz probably credits NY bagels to the water.

So, anyway, some cats from the American Chemical Society got together and ran some tests and spoke to some chefs and concluded that indeed it's not the magical properties of the Empire State's water supply that makes NYC bagels unique, but rather the unique competence of NYC bakers. Yes, the softness of the water plays a role but not an integral one. The baking method used in New York is just better than the baking method bakers in other cities use—but there is no reason why those bakers couldn't start using the NYC method (with some slight modifications), or so sayeth the video.

Is this video accurate? I have no idea. I am not a professor of baked goods. It sounds maybe reasonable to me. It sort of makes sense, right? Because, yeah, New York has the best bagels but I've certainly had good bagels other places. But those bagels are normally the exception to the bagel culture of the area. I've definitely had one or two okay bagels in LA. Maybe those bakers are using the NY method? I don't know. What do you think?

Eight Good Lessons About Health Care — Plus a Ninth

| Wed May 20, 2015 1:20 PM EDT

Over at Vox today, Sarah Kliff and Julia Belluz have a list of eight things they now do differently after reporting on health care for a combined decade between them. It's a great list, and unless I missed something I think I agree with every word on it. Even item #3, which has been, um, a bit of a challenge for me over the past six months.

Of course, as with all collections of advice, even good ones, this one has an underlying ninth item: don't be an idiot. Sometimes guidelines need to be broken. But they're still good to keep in mind.

This Is What Osama bin Laden Liked to Read

| Wed May 20, 2015 1:00 PM EDT

Today, the Director of National Intelligence released a bunch of the documents US forces recovered from Osama bin Laden's compound during the  raid in Abbottabad. The inventory of the declassified materials provides a glimpse into what were OBL's reading habits. Were there novels of Nick Hornby and Ian McEwan? Maybe a dog-eared copy of Donna Tartt's The Secret History? Or a marked up first edition of Julia Phillip's infamous Hollywood tell-all You'll Never Eat Lunch In This Town Again?

No, you will be unsurprised to learn, there were not.

SPOILER ALERT: Bin Laden liked to read things about al-Qaeda. Things with such sexy sundry titles as “Prospects for al-Qaeda” and "Al-Qaeda and the Internet: The Dangers of ‘Cyberplanning’."

Two fun ones though: Popular Science's "Best Innovations of the Year" and an article in TIME about AOL's troubles, both of which sort of seem like the reading materials one might find in the waiting room to hell.

In the section titled "Documents probably used by other compound residents" we find some of the bin Laden children's periodicals: art stuff, Guinness Book of World Records, video game instruction manuals, a sports nutrition guide, and a suicide prevention manual entitled "Is It the Heart You Are Asking? by Dr. Islam Sobhi al-Mazeny.

Pretty bleak!

Here's the full list of "media articles" from Bin Laden's bookshelf, courtesy of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. You should probably commit the names of some of them to memory so you'll have something interesting to talk about at parties.

Business Week (19 Feb 2007 issue)

Doctrine: Journal of General Military Review, Issue 3

Foreign Policy in Focus, “Prospects for al-Qaeda” (24 Jan 2003)

Foreign Policy (Jan-Feb 2008)

Foreign Policy (March-Apr 2008)

Foreign Policy (May-June 2008)

Foreign Policy (Nov-Dec 2008)

Foreign Policy (Sept-Oct 2008)

Heft, “The Taliban, al-Qaeda, and the Determination of Illegal Combatants,” Issue 4 (2002)

“The Impact of the War in Iraq on Islamist Groups and the Culture of Global Jihad,” by Reuven Paz, Project for the Research of Islamist Movements (2004)

International News, “Governments’ Successful Measures against Terrorism” (21 Aug 2009)

Journal of International Security Affairs, “Future Terrorism, Mutant Jihads” by Walid Phares

Los Angeles Times, “Is al-Qaeda Just Bush’s Boogeyman? (11 Jan 2005)

Middle East Policy, “Terrorist Recruitment and Radicalization in Saudi Arabia” (Winter 2006)

Military Review, “Changing the Army for Counterinsurgency Operations” (Nov-Dec 2005)

Newsweek, part of an article on an attack within Israel

Newsweek, part of an article on President Bush’s business practices prior to his terms as President

Newsweek, part of an article on hawks and doves on Iraq within the Bush Administration

Newsweek, quotes column (unknown issue, but apparently from the years of the Bush Administration)

Osprey corporate advertisement featuring U.S. military troops rappelling from a helicopter

Parameters, “Al-Qaeda and the Internet: The Dangers of ‘Cyberplanning’,” Timothy L. Thomas (Spring 2003)

Parameters, “The Origins of al-Qaeda’s Ideology and Implications for U.S. Strategy,” by Christopher Henzel (Spring 2005)

Popular Science, “Best Innovations of the Year Issue” (Dec 2010)

“Pushing the Prize Up , A Few Notes on Al-Qaeda’s Reward Structure and the Choice of Casualties,” by Raul Caruso and Andrea Locatelli

“Studi Politico-Strategici: An Introduction to Unconventional Warfare,” by Joseph Gagliano

Time, part of an article on a dive of America Online’s stock

Tulsa World article on criminal charges against David Coleman Headley

U.S. News and World Report (fragment, issue unknown)

Washington Quarterly, “Counterterrorism after al-Qaeda” by Paul Pillar (Summer 2004)

Washington Quarterly, “The Post-Madrid Face of al-Qaeda,” by Rohan Gunaratna (Summer 2004)

Washingtonian Magazine profile of John Esposito (Jan 2005)

"Documents probably used by other compound residents":

Art Education: The Journal of National Art Education Association, “Islamic Art as an Educational Tool about the Teaching of Islam” by Fayeq S. Oweiss (March 2002)

Arabic Calligraphy Workshop by Fayeq S. Oweiss

Published Work Sample from Fayeq S. Oweiss (2004)

Resume for Fayeq S. Oweiss, Ph.D. (2006)

Delta Force Extreme 2 Videogame Guide

Game Spot Videogame Guide

Grappler’s Guide to Sports Nutrition by John Berardi and Michael Fry

Guinness Book of World Records Children’s Edition 2008 (scans of several pages from)

Is It the Heart You Are Asking? by Dr. Islam Sobhi al-Mazeny (suicide prevention guide)

Silkscreening Instructions

Here's What Osama bin Laden Wrote About Climate Change

| Wed May 20, 2015 12:59 PM EDT

On Wednesday morning, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a trove of newly declassified documents discovered during the 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden's compound. Among the many letters, videos, and audio recordings is an undated document apparently written by bin Laden discussing the "massive consequences" of climate change, a phenomenon he describes as having more victims than wars.

The newly released document is very similar in content and language to a recording released in 2010, in which the Al Qaeda leader expounded on climate change and criticized the international community's lackluster relief efforts in response to flooding in Pakistan. The speech, about 11 minutes in length, was accompanied by a video compilation that included images of natural disasters and Bin Laden.

In the document, Bin Laden calls attention to the fate of Pakistani children, who, he says, had been "left in the open, without a suitable living environment, including good drinking water, which has exposed them to dehydration, dangerous diseases and higher death rates." He also laments that "countries are annually spending 100 thousand million euros on their armies" while failing to address the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan.

This was not the only time Bin Laden spoke about climate change. In a different letter between Bin Laden and senior Al Qaeda leaders—also seized during the 2011 raid and written about by Foreign Affairs in March—Bin Laden remarked on a study about climate change and asked his associates to send it Al Jazeera. In 2010, Al Jazeera obtained an audio recording of Bin Laden criticizing the "industrial states," the United States among them, for contributing to climate change.

Read the full text of the undated letter below:

 

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Big Banks Plead Guilty to Collusion, But Fines are Pocket Change

| Wed May 20, 2015 11:43 AM EDT

Five of the planet's biggest banks have finally been forced to plead guilty to collusion charges in the foreign exchange market:

The Justice Department forced four of the banks — Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland — to plead guilty to antitrust violations in the foreign exchange market as part of a scheme that padded the banks’ profits and enriched the traders who carried out the plot....Underscoring the collusive nature of their contact, which often occurred in online chat rooms, one group of traders called themselves “the cartel,” an invitation-only club where stakes were so high that a newcomer was warned, “Mess this up and sleep with one eye open.” To carry out the scheme, one trader would typically build a huge position in a currency and then unload it at a crucial moment, hoping to move prices. Traders at the other banks agreed to, as New York State’s financial regulator put it, “stay out of each other’s way.”

....The guilty pleas, which the banks are expected to enter in federal court later on Wednesday, represent a first in a financial industry that has been dogged by numerous scandals and investigations since the 2008 financial crisis. Until now, banks have either had their biggest banking units or small subsidiaries plead guilty.

....As part of the criminal deal with the Justice Department, a fifth bank, UBS, will plead guilty to manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, a benchmark rate that underpins the cost of trillions of dollars in credit cards and other loans.

The total fine is about $5 billion, and it's about damn time this happened. Unfortunately, I assume that a billion dollars each is basically pocket change that's already been fully reserved on their balance sheets. Needless to say, not a single dime of this will hit the actual people running the banks, who couldn't possibly be expected to know that any of this stuff was going on. They were too busy drinking their lunches and remodeling their corner offices to know what a few rogue traders on the 23rd floor were doing. The Times confirms that life will go on as usual:

For the banks, though, life as a felon is likely to carry more symbolic shame than practical problems. Although they could be technically barred by American regulators from managing mutual funds or corporate pension plans or perform certain other securities activities, the banks have obtained waivers from the Securities and Exchange Commission that will allow them to conduct business as usual. In fact, the cases were not announced until after the S.E.C. had time to act.

It's good to be king.

Michelle Obama Can Kick Your Ass

| Wed May 20, 2015 11:32 AM EDT

Feeling pleased with your morning run or cardio stroll? Well here's a reminder that Michelle Obama, who was already likely to be crushing you in most parts of your life, rules when it comes to the exercise game.  

In a new video posted to her @FLOTUS account, the first lady responded to the president's #GimmeFive challenge by showing off her fierce workout skills—boxing, lifting, and jumping rope. 

So thanks for the assist Lebron, but this glimpse into Obama's workout proves once again the first lady can hold court all on her own.

The Truth About How Obama Has Handled the Pacific Trade Deal

| Wed May 20, 2015 9:00 AM EDT
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Barack Obama at the White House on April 28, 2015

While Kevin Drum is focused on getting better, we've invited some of the remarkable writers and thinkers who have traded links and ideas with him from Blogosphere 1.0 to this day to contribute posts and keep the conversation going. Today we're honored to present a post from Daniel Drezner.

One of the enduring memes of the Obama administration has been the notion that the president is a lousy politician. One of the things that Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had in common is that they knew how to schmooze. Obama, on the other hand, does not have any close friendships on the international stage, nor is he particularly tight with Republican or Democrat members of Congress. Indeed, this has been a sufficiently common lament for someone to write "A Brief History of President Obama Not Having Any Friends" last year.

So let's stipulate that the president is a cold fish. What remains contested is whether this matters in terms of getting things done. There are DC insiders who argue that personal relationships and one-on-one politicking really do matter. These are the pundits who tend to bemoan presidential passivity and write "Why won't Obama lead?" ledes and ask why Barack Obama doesn't drink more whiskey with Mitch McConnell or play more golf with John Boehner. And then there are structuralists who argue that what really matters are the separation of powers written into the Constitution and the incentive of opposition parties to, you know, oppose the president's policies.

When it comes to managing his own party, there may be something to the "Why can't Obama lead?" meme.

Last week's machinations over trade promotion authority (TPA) regarding the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) will not definitively settle this debate, but they did offer a few data points that suggest the relative merits of each side of this debate.

First, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gave a delightfully blunt interview to the New York Times' John Harwood. On TPA/TPP, McConnell and most of the Senate Republicans are working with Obama, which puts him in strange territory. To explain this to Harwood, McConnell flatly debunked the notion that Obama would have accomplished more in the GOP-controlled Congress if only he'd been more sociable with Republican members of Congress:

In the caricature of how Washington works, Mr. McConnell and other congressional Republicans were supposed to bond with Mr. Obama at a so-called bourbon summit meeting, as though a soothing, generous pour would bring them together.

It has never happened—which, as far as Mr. McConnell is concerned, counts for exactly zero.

"It's all good stuff for you all to write, but it has no effect on policy," Mr. McConnell said. He dismissed "press talk" that social outreach could bridge the deep ideological and partisan divisions of 21st-century American politics.

"It wouldn't make any difference," he concluded. "Look, it's a business." (emphasis added)

And that sound you just heard was the combined egos of the "why can't Obama lead" crowd visibly deflating.

McConnell's Hyman Roth-like answer would seem to validate the structuralist position of the president's ability to get legislation passed—at least when it comes to dealing with the opposition party.

When it comes to dealing with his own party, however, I'm not sure that the structuralists can claim victory. One could argue that Democrats are just as constrained on trade as Republicans because of their base's public opinion, but I don't think it's really that simple.

There were a lot of things going on in last Tuesday's initial failure of TPA to pass the Senate, including genuine policy differences between Obama and elements of the progressive movement. But as Reuters noted, at least part of it was Obama's alienation of Senate Democrats:

As for Obama, he may have hurt his chances with Democrats by minimizing concerns about trade's impact on labor, the environment and regulations, and his explicit criticism of the anti-trade stance of leading liberal Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren.

"The president was disrespectful to her," Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown told reporters. "When he said that a number of us, not just Senator Warren, don't know what we're talking about...he shouldn't have." Brown opposes the fast-track bill.

Indeed, there has been a lot of Democrat grumbling about Obama's rhetorical jabs at Warren and other anti-TPP Democrats, to the point where Sherrod Brown accused Obama of sexism.

Of course, twenty-four hours later, a deal had been struck for a vote on TPA in the Senate. If Edward Isaac-Dovere and Burgess Everett's Politico recap is accurate, then Presidential Leadership (TM) played a pivotal role in the process:

The White House named names. And not 24 hours later, President Barack Obama and his aides had a deal to get fast-track back on track...

Obama aides strategically put out word to reporters of the meeting, even before senators had arrived at the White House. Shortly after the meeting ended, they released the list: the seven Democrats who'd voted for fast-track in committee, plus Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.). A few hours before, every Senate Democrat except Tom Carper of Delaware had publicly rebuked his trade effort. Now the White House put on the spot the other nine who had either publicly or privately indicated they would support the underlying fast-track and Trade Adjustment Assistance package, but who voted against opening debate.

In other words, the president had more than enough votes just in the room to get the trade bill moving. According to senators who were there, the president took his time, spending 90 minutes to explain why they needed to get their act together.

Now this does sound like some Old Time-y Presidential leadership, and so maybe, when it comes to managing his own party, there is something to the "Why can't Obama lead?" meme.

But not a lot. My colleague Greg Sargent's take suggests that last Tuesday's vote was more about Reid/McConnell dynamics than anything to do with Obama. And even the close of Politico's story:

Then again, some Senate Democrats said this all would have been resolved even without Obama—though maybe not in time for the House to take up the bill in June, keeping it on track to help Obama seal the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 12 Pacific Rim countries.

"This was going to end up there anyway," Nelson said. "But I would say the meeting with the president accelerated the discussion."

So, to sum up: Most of the time, the structuralists are mostly right when it comes to presidents exercising leadership in pushing legislation through Congress. But they're not completely right. On the margins, when dealing with one's own party, maybe presidential leadership matters just a wee bit.

Bird Flu Is Slamming Factory Farms But Sparing Backyard Flocks. Why?

| Wed May 20, 2015 6:00 AM EDT

The Midwest's ongoing avian flu crisis is wreaking havoc on the region's large-scale egg and turkey farms. Last week alone, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that the virus had turned up in more than 20 additional facilities in the region, condemning 4 million birds to euthanasia. Altogether, the H5N2 virus—"highly pathogenic" to birds, so far non-threatening to humans—has affected 168 sites and a jaw-dropping 36 million birds, the great bulk of them in Iowa and surrounding states. It's the largest avian flu outbreak in US history—and it has already wiped out 40 percent of the egg-laying flock h Iowa, the number-one egg-producing state in the US, according to The New York Times.

But it's largely leaving backyard flocks unscathed. Why?

You'd expect backyard flocks to be widely affected too, but they don't seem to be," said one virologist.

According to Hon S. Ip, a virologist at the US Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center, it's a genuine mystery. Backyard flocks typically roam outdoors, in ready contact with wild birds, which are thought to be the origin of the virus. Their commercial counterparts live in tight confinement under strict "biosecurity" protocols: birds are shielded from contact with the outdoors; workers change into special boots and coveralls—or even shower—before entering facilities, etc.

Ip said that wild birds could be spreading the virus in one of two ways: directly, by bringing chickens and turkeys into contact with infected feces; or indirectly, through wind-borne particles that, say, blow through vents in a confined facility. "If that's how it's spreading, you'd expect backyard flocks to be widely affected too, but they don't seem to be," he told me. Moreover, it has continued to spread in Iowa, even after the egg industry had ample time to ramp up biosecurity. All of this suggests something else, besides wild birds, might be the cause, Ip added.

USDA secretary Tom Vilsack speculated that the virus could be entering farms through biosecurity breaches.

But what? He has no idea, he said. And nor, apparently, does anyone else. In a recent news item [paywalled], the journal Science declared the outbreak "enigmatic." "All the old dogma about high-path influenza transmission has just gone out the window," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy here at the University of Minnesota, told the journal. "We're in totally uncharted territory."

Meanwhile, in an interview with Iowa Public Radio, USDA secretary Tom Vilsack speculated that the virus could be entering farms through biosecurity breaches. "We've had circumstances recently where folks have been using pond water, for example, to feed and to water their birds. Well, that's a problem because the pond water could be contaminated," Vilsack said in the interview. "We've had situations where folks are supposed to shower before they go into the facility, but the shower doesn't work, so they go in anyway."

I've seen no reports detailing current conditions on egg farms in Iowa, but it's worth noting that in 2010, the Food and Drug Administration found troubling biosecurity lapses within some of the state's largest egg facilities, after they had been forced to recall 550 million eggs due to potential salmonella contamination. The FDA inspectors' report detailed a variety of problems, including several involving contact between egg-laying hens and wild birds.

While experts scramble to figure out how the disease is spreading, the egg and turkey industries are dealing with one particular immediate consequence: how to safely dispose of millions of potentially flu-ridden bird carcasses. As the Des Moines Register reports, the process is not going smoothly:

Landfills in South Dakota, Nebraska and northwest Iowa, where poultry producers have been the hardest hit, have turned away the dead birds, fearful of the risk of contamination. The problem is so severe that on Friday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack stepped in to urge landfills to accept some of the millions of birds killed or destroyed by the H5N2 virus, saying delays could [exacerbate] odors and flies, problems neighbors have already complained about in some parts of the state.

In response to these difficulties, the USDA has "dedicated 266 employees, including 85 in Iowa, and contracted more than 1,000 personnel to work around the clock across the 20 states affected by the outbreak," Vilsack wrote in a statement. In addition, the agency has allotted $130 million "in indemnity payments to help poultry producers who have lost flocks get back on their feet," Vilsack added.

That relatively modest measure of taxpayer support for the poultry industry may just be the beginning. The USGS's Ip said the rate of new infections is "showing signs of slowing down" as warm weather sets in. Flu viruses are "less stable" at higher temperatures, he said, which is why flu tends to be much worse in winter than in summer. But as Reuters reported recently, the USDA warns that it's "highly probable" the strain will return when the weather cools this fall. If it does, and it spreads to the eastern and southern poultry belts—where the great bulk of the chicken we eat is produced—taxpayers could be in for a real hit.