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Debate Liveblogging - 10.07.2008

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 9:59 PM EDT

DEBATE LIVEBLOGGING....Sure, it's going to be a townhall format, but is it a small town format? Because we all know that small town values are where it's at these days. Gentlemen, start your engines.

Wrapup – There was more tit-for-tat spatting this time than in the previous debate, but not really anything substantively new. They both had pretty much the same talking points as they did in Oxford, and neither one was especially sharp tonight.

Obama was not at his best, but his answers were mostly fairly clear and straightforward. He did OK. McCain struggled at first, then picked up a bit later, but overall seemed sort of testy and off his feed. And what was with his "that one" reference to Obama? That's not presidential, my friends.

On specific topics: McCain did poorly on energy; Obama did well. McCain did OK on the financial crisis; Obama did much better. McCain blew the "priorities" question; Obama handled it nicely and gets points for not completely accepting Tom Brokaw's framing. McCain did OK on entitlements; so did Obama. Healthcare was sort of a botch for both guys. Overall, a modest but definite victory for Obama.

UPDATE: The CNN insta-poll says Obama won 54%-30%. I'm not surprised Obama won, but I'm a little surprised he won so strongly. I suspect this has something to do with the increasing comfort level with Obama as the debates progress, and also with the steadiness he's demonstrated during the financial crisis. In any case, it's very, very bad news for McCain. Once the comfort level with Obama increases to this level, McCain is doomed.

UPDATE 2: CBS insta-poll of uncommitted voters says Obama won 39%-27%.

10:33 – McCain: "What I don't know is what the unexpected will be." Yogi Berra would be proud.

10:31 – "What don't you know and how will you learn it?" This is just a variation on the old "What's your greatest weakness?" chestnut. Jeers to Brokaw for asking it.

10:26 – Oh please, not preconditions again. Not the League of Democracies. Please. It's like a Kabuki play.

10:24 – OK, we finally have an issue that men care about more than women: Russian energy. Who knew? UPDATE: Iranian nukes too!

10:16 – By the way, didn't McCain sound kind of whiny a couple of minutes ago with his "If Obama gets more time then I want more time too" schtick?

10:15 – McCain once again says he knows how to get Osama but he's not going to tip his hand about how to do it. Sheesh.

10:11 – McCain is really struggling to make Obama sound like a warmonger for wanting to kill Osama if we find him in Pakistan. It's just too much of a stretch for him.

10:10 – Is there anything that men react to more strongly than women? Come on guys, get in touch with your feelings!

10:07 – Once again, McCain is noticeably more comfortable with national security issues than with domestic issues. In the first 40 minutes of the debate McCain tripped over his own words frequently and found himself struggling for words and ideas. Now that we're onto foreign policy, he's far more fluent.

10:05 – Obama is oddly tongue-tied on the subject of humanitarian interventions.

10:02 – McCain and Obama agree that America is the greatest nation on earth. Whew. I'm glad we got that cleared up.

9:58 – Obama: "It's important to crack down on insurance companies that are cheating you." The focus group has gone off the charts. Even the men (who don't react nearly as strong as women) reacted fairly strongly.

9:54 – McCain's "math" on healthcare is a total ramble. I wonder how many people have any idea what he's talking about?

9:52 – When the candidates attack their opponent's plan (as Obama is doing right now on healthcare), the focus group doesn't like it. But is that because they don't like attacks, or is it because they're agreeing that the stuff being attacked really is bad?

9:46 – Obama wants wind and solar. Much better! Everybody likes wind and solar.

9:44 – McCain gets a total softball on his environmental plans. But he's blowing it! Nuclear power is safe! We can reprocess all the toxic waste! Even if that's true, it's a bad answer. Then he follows up with a bit of incoherent rambling.

9:41 – McCain: "Social Security isn't that tough." Well, that's true enough. But on Medicare, McCain thinks the answer is a commission. Hmmm.

9:39 – Obama is getting pretty wonky about his tax plans. But the focus group loves it!

9:33 – McCain didn't seem anxious to mention his gigantic corporate tax cut.

9:28 – Obama hasn't said "John is right" yet. Is this deliberate?

9:27 – Obama says energy is priority #1, healthcare is #2, and education is #3. He refused to take Brokaw's bait and demagogue Social Security. Good for him.

9:24 – McCain wants "all of the above." Literally. He's in serious ramble mode on what his highest priority will be as president.

9:23 – No bear DNA yet, but McCain has a new one: Obama voted for "an overhead projector for a planetarium in Chicago, Illinois." Take that!

9:21 – Isn't Bill Ayers really the source of all our economic woes? Why hasn't McCain pointed that out yet?

9:20 – Obama keeps talking about George Bush and how he mishandled the economy. Why is he unwilling to say the words "Republican Party" instead?

9:18 – American workers are the best exporters and the best importers in the world? What is McCain talking about?

9:17 – Neither candidate wants to admit the obvious, namely that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. I guess I don't blame them.

9:15 – Obama, on the other hand, actually did a pretty good job of explaining how TARP might help ordinary workers. But now it's back to tit-for-tat against McCain.

9:12 – Oliver wants to know how the bailout bill is going to help people like him. McCain isn't even pretending to answer the question. Instead he's just attacking Obama and his "cronies" who supported Fannie Mae.

9:09 – Is McCain really serious about Meg Whitman as Secretary of the Treasury?

9:07 – I have no idea whether these "dial groups" that CNN monitors during the debate have any validity at all, but I'm fascinated by them regardless. And the dial group, against expectations, really didn't like McCain's idea of bailing out homeowners directly.

9:05 – Yes! Obama wants to fire all those AIG execs who took that $400,000 junket. The focus group goes wild!

9:01 – Wolf says there will be no rambling or filibustering tonight. Why? Because there's a clock. That really doesn't seem to have stopped rambling or filibustering before, but I guess there's a first time for everything.

8:59 – Everybody at CNN thinks that everyone else at CNN is absolutely right about everything they've just said.

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Reversing Course, California Gay Marriage Ban Ahead in the Polls

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 8:53 PM EDT

New polls show Proposition 8, the California ballot measure banning gay marriage, winning in November by a margin of four to five points. This is a dramatic shift from what they'd indicated in recent months and up to as late as a week ago, when one of the same polls showed Prop 8 losing by the same margin. Since then, Prop 8 backers have blanketed the state's airwaves with an ad featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming in a speech that gay marriage will happen "whether you like it or not"--a comment that may play on unfounded fears of government intervention. Inexplicably, one poll attributed much of the recent shift to young voters, who have typically been the most stalwart supporters of gay rights. In what's shaping up to be one of the costliest ballot measures on a cultural issue in state history, Prop 8 backers complain that they're being outspent, with a significant amount of Prop 8 funding coming from the Mormon Church. As I've written in the past, the gay marriage issue poses little if any threat to Barack Obama this year. Even so, the recent movement in the polls indicates that support for gay rights remains disturbingly malleable.

The British Bailout

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 8:27 PM EDT

THE BRITISH BAILOUT....From the Guardian:

Gordon Brown will announce plans today to use up to £50bn of taxpayers' money to take major stakes in the high street banks in a last-ditch attempt to restore confidence in the financial system.

Adjusted for the size of our respective economies, this is about the equivalent of $500 billion. In other words, nearly as big as the Paulson bailout. In other words, big.

However, they're using their money to recapitalize banks, not to buy up troubled assets. Paul Krugman approves.

Why AIG Went Down

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 7:14 PM EDT

aig-financial-goal-250x200.jpg

Documents released today by a congressional committee investigating the collapse of insurance giant American International Group (AIG) paint a picture of a company that sought to conceal the scope of its risky investments, despite warnings from regulators, auditors, and even its own employees that its financial disclosures were insufficient.

According to a letter (PDF) released Tuesday by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, which held a hearing on the firm's downfall, federal regulators warned AIG executives of a "material weakness" in the company's books five months before the insurance giant had to be rescued by an $85 billion government bailout. The federal Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) wrote AIG on March 10, 2008 that its asset valuations "lacked the accuracy and granularity necessary to understand the impact… on AIG's accounting and financial reporting."

AIG's auditor, Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PWC), also warned the insurance giant about its books. Oversight committee chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) pointed to minutes (PDF) from an AIG audit committee meeting in March indicating the board was told that the "root cause" of AIG's problems was internal auditors' lack of "appropriate access" to the Financial Products division—the very division whose massive losses eventually necessitated the $85 billion government bailout.

And even AIG's own employees warned the company that it had no way of knowing how much risk it was exposed to. In a letter (PDF) to the committee, Joseph St. Denis, the firm's former vice president for accounting policy in AIG's Financial Products division, accused AIG executives of stymieing his attempts to make sure the company was properly reporting the liabilities stemming from its involvement in risky financial products, including the $62 billion credit derivative swap (CDS) market. St. Denis, who worked as a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement official before joining AIG, said Joseph Cassano, the head of the division, "took actions that I believed were intended to prevent me from performing the job duties for which I was hired."

Lynn Turner, a former chief accountant for the SEC who testified at the hearing, said he didn't see how AIG's financial disclosures could possibly be consistent with its exposure. "When you've got that sort of exposure, you owe it to me as an investor [to disclose it]. That's the disclosure I cannot find in these filings…. There's a question there as to why we didn't get that."

MP3: Brett Dennen - "Make You Crazy"

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 6:06 PM EDT

mojo-photo-dennen.jpgI've been doing pretty well this election season, emotional-stability-wise, but today, I'm starting to get really pissed. With the tacit encouragement of the candidates, McCain-Palin rallies are turning into lynch mobs, astonishing examples of the real consequences of pushing Rovian campaign tactics that far. Whether or not Obama is dominating in the polls, this kind of stuff makes me furious and terrified, and I'm not sure I'll be able to watch the debate tonight without being physically restrained, or my TV might end up out on the sidewalk.

Oakdale, California's Brett Dennen understands. His new album, Hope for the Hopeless (hey, that's me!) comes out October 21st; his label, Downtown, has a free mp3 of the first single, "Make You Crazy" (that's also me!), whose lyrics acknowledge that the "lies just to get you/spies just to get you" are "enough to make you go crazy." Thankfully, its sunny samba rhythms have the calming properties of a nice caipirinha—not too sweet, but tasty enough to help you forget why you were about to blow your top over some planted pseudo-redneck at a Palin rally. And is that Femi Kuti in the background? Why yes it is. Ahhh, that's better.

MP3: Brett Dennen – "Make You Crazy"

Debate Preview

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 5:25 PM EDT

DEBATE PREVIEW....Karen Tumulty notes that 9 out of 10 people are now dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States:

With the nation in that frame of mind, it's hard to believe that talking about Obama's associations with a figure from the 1960s is going to gain McCain much ground. Nor will talking about earmarks, or recycling his stump speech jokes about how the federal government is studying the DNA of bears. These items aren't even a rounding error in the huge federal budget, and sound even smaller in the wake of last week's $700-billion bailout package. And all this is even before most Americans have taken a look at the quarterly statements they will be receiving in coming days that show just how badly their 401(k)s and other investments have been hit.

Two notes. First, what's the deal with the 9% of the country that apparently thinks we're doing OK? Did they not understand the question? Second, as dumb as it is, my guess is that McCain will talk about Ayers and Jeremiah Wright and bear DNA regardless. It's possible that there was never any winning strategy for McCain in the first place, but the strategy he ended up with has nonetheless been almost astonishingly bad. It's like he just put the last few winning Republican campaigns in a blender and decided to repeat them. Neither he nor Steve Schmidt seem to understand that the Republican base just isn't what it used to be.

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Google Earth Adds Ocean View

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 5:15 PM EDT

ocean.jpgIt's not all bad news from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) this week. Today the group, in partnership with Google, launched an interactive marine layer for Google Earth. Users will be able to explore all of the world's most sensitive ocean areas, as well as upload their own photos and information to the map. Check it out here.

I haven't gotten to play with this yet, as the layer so far only works with Windows. But my sense is that the combination of solid information and the familiar Google Earth interface will get a lot more people interested in the fate of the ocean. Needless to say, the sooner the better.

Photo used under a Creative Commons license from coda.

Palin's (Functional Equivalent of an) Email Cover-up

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 5:00 PM EDT

no-email250x200.jpg By using at least one private email account for state business, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has virtually guaranteed that most of the emails she sent as governor--which are subject to the state's Open Records Act--will not be publicly released before Election Day.

After Senator John McCain, the GOP presidential nominee, picked Palin to be his running mate, a number of news organizations, including Mother Jones filed Open Records Act requests for copies of emails Palin had received or sent. (For a comprehensive list of all the requests received by Palin's office, see here.)On September 22, in response to the Mother Jones request, Palin's office replied that it would cost $2,249.46 to conduct a search of her official email account. This did not include copying fees. The fee was later reduced to $590.06. But money was not the issue.

Palin has used at least two private email accounts in addition to her state account. That posed a serious challenge to the record-keepers in her office: how to find the emails to and from these accounts. The information managers had easy access to the emails she generated and received with her official account. But they did not have access to a Yahoo account she used for official communications and another private account she might have used for state business.

Vladimir Putin Would Totally Kick Your Ass

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 3:15 PM EDT

Yep, that's our favorite despot Vladimir Putin getting shown who's boss by an opponent half his size. But don't be fooled: Putin is a badass, and he wants you to know it. We've all seen the pictures of him fly-fishing with his shirt off and, more recently, of him taking aim at a wild boar and saving an imperiled group of scientists. The macho media campaign continues with this latest installment. In honor of his birthday, Putin has released a 75-minute DVD called Learning Judo with Vladimir Putin. It follows a 2004 book the Russian president (then prime minister) co-authored with judo partner Vasily Shestakov. "The book sold very well, and I think there will be a big demand for this film," Shestakov told the The Times (London). "Putin demonstrates five or six moves from the book, and he also explains his philosophy and outlook on judo... He is a very successful master, a 6th Dan, and he gives very clear demonstrations of technique, of movement and grip. Russia lost a great judo player, but found a great leader."

As for Putin, one of the things that attracts him to judo is the premium placed on softness and finesse. "The name of the sport, 'the gentle way,' reveals the fundamental principle—an opportunity to gain the upper hand by soft but effective actions," he says in the video.

Makes you wonder what Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili would say about that. As The Times points out, Putin is probably the "only world leader who is as skilled at self-defence as his bodyguards." But maybe not for long: last month, Putin told a French newspaper that Nicolas Sarkozy expressed an interest in judo. "We have decided to do some training together," he said. Oh, how I would love to see that.

Debate Bingo....This Time For Real!

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 1:45 PM EDT

DEBATE BINGO....THIS TIME FOR REAL!....Speaking of tonight's debate, our debate bingo game is back and it's better than ever. Thanks to enterprising reader Jason S., you can now print different versions of the card and play actual bingo with your friends tonight. Just click the link to go to our fundraising page and then click on the bingo card. Once you're there, click the Mother Jones logo at the top of the card and all the squares will randomly reset. You can print as many different cards as you like.

Now that's customer service! I'll be liveblogging, of course, so come on by and join us in comments. And as long as you're already at our fundraising page, maybe you can throw a few dollars our way too. It keeps both the magazine and the blogs going and helps keep progressive journalism alive. Pretty good deal, eh?