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US Deaths in Iraq at All-Time Low

| Thu Apr. 2, 2009 10:26 AM EDT

Back when the Iraq War was in its worst stages, we would mention high casualty numbers here on the blog (i.e. July's 350 deaths represent the second highest monthly total since the war began). So it's only fair that I mention that there were just nine American soldiers killed in March, the lowest monthly number for the entire war. That's great news. No info is available on civilian casualties, but let's hope those numbers are low, too, and that they stay that way as the Pentagon draws down forces.

And just FYI: I'll be the first to admit that giving credit to Obama for this -- something that so clearly has its origins before his ascent to office -- would be absurd. You won't find any lefty bloggers praising Obama for this development. Which is why the Right's attempts to pin the recession on Barack Obama ("the Obama recession") is so despicable and says so much.

Sorry to get political on an issue that shouldn't be.

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More G-20 Gossip, Please

| Thu Apr. 2, 2009 1:53 AM EDT
I think I've now read about a dozen stories telling me that America is seriously at odds with France and Germany at the G-20 meeting because Obama isn't as serious about financial regulatory reform as Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are.  The phrase "non-negotiable red lines" and the quote "The crisis didn't actually spontaneously erupt in Europe, did it?"show up in pretty much all of these stories, but there's always one thing missing: an explanation of exactly what the disagreement is about.  Is the global financial press really so lame that they haven't been able to ferret this out yet?  Better gossip, please.

Keeping Banks Small

| Thu Apr. 2, 2009 1:13 AM EDT
I promise not to bore you forever on the subject of limiting bank size, but here's a suggestion from Willem Buiter that seems to make sense.  It's part of a list of proposed regulatory reforms:

(2d) There has to be international agreement on restricting the size and scope of financial institutions.  Aggressive enforcement of anti-monopoly policy and the imposition of capital requirements that are increasing in the size of a bank (for given leverage and risk) would be two obvious tools for achieving this.

This seems both better and more workable than a flat cap on assets.  What he's suggesting is that the bigger a bank gets, the higher its capital ratio should be.  This accomplishes two things: (1) it puts natural downward pressure on bank size since higher capital requirements reduce leverage and profitability, and (2) if a bank gets big anyway, the higher capital ratio makes it less likely to fail and cause systemic problems.  Sounds reasonable to me.

Scientists Name New Syndrome: Limbaughtosis

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 8:31 PM EDT
It's like halitosis, only it's bad breadth not breath. In other words, a case of severely overweighted self worth notable for its rush onset, sweatiness, febrile humor, heavy breathing, spitting, and verbosity. There's no known trigger though some speculate on electromagnetic waves. There's also no known treatment. Time-release drug formulas seem to exacerbate the symptoms.

Patient X, who does not wish to be identified, says his affliction with Limbaugh Syndrome is a living hell. He describes obsessive demons of righteousness and a compulsion to fight for individual rights—except those that fail to appease his obsessive demons of righteousness. The conflict exhausts him.

He can't sleep. There's insomnia over phantom governments. There are nightmares of unchanging ideals. He is forever tripping over his own unapologetic rules. Faith blindsides him.

It's also intensely emotionally lonely, says Patient X. He feels like a lone voice in an answerless universe. He expects a God-given natural right to be free yet imagines himself irretrievably trapped inside a small soundproof room amid billowing clouds of smoke.

Patient X secretly hopes for help from stem cell therapy. But he doesn't want to rush for a cure either. He can't envision life without his disease.

Radicals in Suits

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 7:04 PM EDT
Via Matt Duss, former Bush speechwriter Christian Brose takes a poke at liberals who have painted the new Foreign Policy Initiative talking shop as just the latest in a long series of neocon warmongering fests:

All that you suspect is true. Bill Kristol, wearing a Viking helmet and a bone through his nose, exhorted the participants to invade Chad, just because. He may have listed other countries, but he was speaking in tongues and war whoops half the time, and my Neo-con-to-English translation kept dropping out. Bob Kagan followed, bare-chested (as usual), in full war paint, banging the Mayflower china with a combat boot, shouting that America needed to put 10 million men under arms to extend its hegemony (benevolent, of course) into the Arctic, shouting something about the road to Moscow leading through the North Pole.

I saw this with my own eyes, people.

If only. It would have been a lot more exciting, that's for sure. As it was, the conference was a pretty staid affair.

But look: that's the whole point.  Bill Kristol and Bob Kagan and all the rest of their neocon bretheren (and sisteren) are sober, suit-wearing, well-modulated members of the foreign policy establishment.  If you listen to what they actually say, they're every bit as radical as any pony-tailed denouncer of empire from the wilds of Berkeley, but they rarely get called on it because they just sound so damn reasonable while they're suggesting a 3-week bombing run to wipe out Iran's nuclear facilities.

Kristol is, within the boundaries of polite society, always in favor of the maximally provocative, maximally militaristic response to any foreign policy problem.  He's about as extreme as you can get this side of the Michigan Militia.  But he wears a nice suit, has a good sense of humor, and makes his doctrine of endless interventionism sound almost soothing.  Who wouldn't want to occupy the Middle East after listening to Kristol's feel-good version of how it will all turn out?

So yesterday's kickoff was "a pretty staid affair"?  Of course it was.  That's the whole problem.

Cap and Trade

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 3:51 PM EDT
The Waxman-Markey climate bill was released yesterday, and if Joe Romm gives it a B+ I'm loathe to be pessimistic about it.  But I am.  It's true that the bill's targets for CO2 reduction are a little more aggressive than the ones Barack Obama campaigned on, but it also includes two provisions that are pretty discouraging.  First, their cap-and-trade program allows a lot of offsets: two billion tons in all, which allows companies to pollute away as long as they "offset" their carbon emissions somewhere else.  In theory, this is fine, but in practice it's an invitation to abuse, substituting purely fictional reductions for real ones.  Second, it allocates a portion of the emission credits directly to affected industries instead of auctioning 100% of them.  This is yet another invitation to abuse.

It's possible, of course, that both of these things can be beaten into submission with the proper oversight and regulation.  But what are the odds?  Ezra Klein anticipates my reaction here:

What concerns me is that it's not clear how it gets better. Waxman and Markey probably represent the leftmost edge of the possible. They're aggressively liberal, terrifically informed legislators who get the moral urgency of climate change and possess the intellectual firepower to grasp the necessary scale of the response. If this is as far as they felt able to go on an opening bid, it's hard to see the legislative pathway that strengthens, rather than weakens, the legislation.

A bill that started out with no offsets and no allocation might eventually end up with offsets and allocation.  But what happens to a bill that caves in on these issues right at the start?  It gets even worse as it wends its way through the sausage factory, that's what.

As Ezra says, Markey and Waxman are as good as they come on this stuff, and if they don't believe that a clean bill stands a chance even as an opening bid, they're probably right.  And God knows, making the perfect the enemy of the good and getting nothing done at all is practically a liberal art form.  Passing this bill in some form or another is certainly way better than passing nothing.

But still.  It's hard not to be a little let down by this.  If this is the best we can do, Bangladesh better get used to being a permanent swamp.

UPDATE: Dave Roberts notes that this is a b-i-i-i-i-g bill, combining a potentially unpopular cap-and-trade program with a tremendous amount of other stuff: "The fact is, doing these pieces separately would mean three, four, possibly five bruising legislative battles, culminating in a battle over cap-and-trade that, in my estimation, simply can't be won on its own in this Senate....So they've decided, uncharacteristically for Democrats, to double down. They are piling all this stuff into one big-ticket, high-profile, must-pass bill....There is now a single point of focus, a put-up-or-shut-up moment. Anyone who wants to transition to a green economy or get the country off foreign oil or prevent global warming knows what to get behind. If nothing else, there will be no doubt by next year whether we're serious about this sh*t."

True, that.  My reservations aside, this bill is the best thing we've seen on the energy front in a long, long time.  I just wish it were even better, that's all.  A guy can dream, can't he?

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With Money Flying Around, Lobbying Registrations Soar

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 3:21 PM EDT

Bill Allison at the Sunlight Foundation did some digging:

Lobbying firms and special interests have filed nearly 1,700 new registration forms so far in the first quarter of 2009, a review of lobbying disclosure forms available online at the Senate Office of Public Records shows. As the federal government pumps up spending and intervenes in the troubled financial markets, K Street firms appear to have had no shortage of new business....

Governments are also scrambling for a piece of the action: 134 state, municipal, county and local government entities--ranging from the Office of Policy Management of the state of Connecticut to the Duneland School System in Chesterton, Ind....

President Obama has tried to make Washington more hostile to lobbyists, but with all the money flying around these days, it looks like it's still a good time to be on K Street.

Obama's Message to Netanyahu

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 2:54 PM EDT

From President Barack Obama's March 24 press conference:

Question: Mr. President, you came to office pledging to work for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. How realistic do you think those hopes are now, given the likelihood of a prime minister [Benyamin Netanyahu] who is not fully signed up to a two-state solution and a foreign minister who has been accused of insulting Arabs?

Obama: It's not easier than it was, but I think it's just as necessary.

A statement put out by the White House on April 1:

The President spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu today. The President congratulated the Prime Minister after his swearing-in yesterday, and reaffirmed the United States' steadfast commitment to Israel and its security. The President said he looked forward to working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government to address issues of mutual concern, including Iran and Arab-Israeli peace.

A slight change in tone, isn't it? But that's to be expected. Official pronouncments often do not match less-guarded statements. But I wonder if two discussed Obama's press conference comment--and whether Obama sent Netanyahu a message any more pointed than the congrats described above.

The Republican "Budget"

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 1:59 PM EDT
I won't even pretend that I understand most of the alternative budget unveiled today by House Republicans.  The gist of it, however, is the classic, time-tested approach taken by "fiscal conservatives" who are too gutless to propose actual, concrete spending cuts: an across-the-board spending freeze.  (Except for the Pentagon, natch, because they're such paragons of efficient procurement.)  That way they can release a 53-page document without taking the political risk of naming an actual program that will get cut.

Even by those standards, though, the section on Social Security is a masterpiece.  Here's the nut of their proposal:

Without reform, [the Social Security] Trust Fund will reach exhaustion in 2041; as a result, future retirees face across-the-board benefit cuts of up to 22 percent in that year....To head off these severe consequences, the budget creates a trigger in Social Security to help extend the program’s viability....The recommendation includes:

• Reducing the 15-percent Primary Insurance Amount bracket by 0.25 percentage points per year, from the date at which SSA finds it cannot meet scheduled benefits within 5 years

• Phasing in the proposal. Because the Trust Fund currently is expected to reach exhaustion by 2041, this provision would not arise until 2036. It would not affect those at or near retirement, and no savings in Social Security are assumed in the budget.

That's it?  Seriously?  They claim Social Security is going bankrupt and their proposal is to reduce PIA by 0.25% per year starting in 2036?  This takes gutlessness to a whole new level.

Later on, it turns out, they drop the mask and admit that this is nothing more than a proposal designed to "begin a process" that will eventually "move toward a consensus for saving and strengthening Social Security."  That's all very New-Agey, but what happened to hard-nosed fiscal rectitude?  Where are the private accounts, the means testing, and the increased age requirements?  Why aren't Republicans standing tall and sticking to their conservative roots on this stuff?  Where's the conviction, guys?

In other news, the Republican budget also proposes privatizing Medicare and putting in place a bunch of tax cuts for the rich, including (of course) temporary elimination of the capital gains tax.  That's bold, innovative thinking.  I'm sure Rush and Sean will be drooling.

Who Runs Pakistan?

| Wed Apr. 1, 2009 1:01 PM EDT
So who really runs Pakistan these days?  Foreign Affairs sponsored a roundtable of experts that produced this rollicking, contentious clash of opinions:

Sumit Ganguly: Is there any doubt about that? The army, for all practical purposes, has been and remains in charge....Shaun Gregory: I agree with Sumit on this. The civilian government is very weak. The Pakistani army retains de facto control of foreign policy, defense policy, internal security, and nuclear policy, and will defend its expanded economic interests....Ashley Tellis: Sumit has it dead-on. The army rules on all the critical issues important to it: the nuclear program, the budget, security policy, relations with key foreign partners....Aqil Shah: The military has withdrawn from exercising direct government power by passing the baton to elected civilians, as it has done several times in the past, but it would be naive to expect it to loosen its control over what it sees as its legitimate "structural" missions [...] Once the army chief signs off on a policy, the costs of disobedience can be prohibitively high....Stephen Cohen: The army cannot govern Pakistan but won't let anyone else govern it either. It's a chicken-egg situation, worsened by the total collapse of the economy and the withering away of state institutions.

Hmmm.  Reading between the lines, then, the answer is "the Pakistani army"?  Right?  So, to echo Freud, what does the army want?  Aqil Shah again:

Any desire to deal firmly with cross-border militancy is trumped by the military's perceived need to retain its ties to this or that militant group in order to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. The army continues to fear that the United States could simply lose interest in Afghanistan once it captures the senior leadership of al Qaeda (as Washington did after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan), leaving Pakistan exposed to Indian (and Russian) "encirclement".

....There appears to be a pervasive belief in the army, among both mid-level and senior officers, that the United States and India are destabilizing FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] and the rest of the country as a prelude to depriving Pakistan of its nuclear weapons. Officers who have served in FATA have told me that they face a U.S.-Indian combined offensive and that the local Taliban receive their funds from across the border. The army might inculcate such beliefs in order to motivate its soldiers, but they also connect to the military's larger worldview. For the generals, the U.S.-Indian nuclear deal is proof of an evolving Indo-U.S., or even Indo-U.S.-Israeli, strategic alliance — not to mention American duplicity.

This is a point that Matt Yglesias is fond of making, and for good reason: we tend to think that foreign policy everywhere is focused on the United States, but it ain't so.  Pakistan obviously cares a lot about its relationship with America, but it cares a whole lot more about its relationships with India, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, which are right on their doorstep and are never going away.