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Breaking: Obama Wins Iowa. Clinton and Edwards Tied for 2nd. Ron Paul Kicking Rudy's Ass

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 10:56 PM EST

Those are the results with 91% percent of precincts reporting. Best part is this:
Ron Paul 8,549 10.1%
Rudy Giuliani 3,053 3.6%

More here.

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McCain in NH: Would Be "Fine" To Keep Troops in Iraq for "A Hundred Years"

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 9:43 PM EST

The United States military could stay in Iraq for "maybe a hundred years" and that "would be fine with me," John McCain told two hundred or so people at a town hall meeting in Derry, New Hampshire, on Thursday evening. Toward the end of this session, which was being held shortly before the Iowa caucuses were to start, McCain was confronted by Dave Tiffany, who calls himself a "full-time antiwar activist." In a heated exchange, Tiffany told McCain that he had looked at McCain's campaign website and had found no indication of how long McCain was willing to keep U.S. troops in Iraq. Arguing that George W. Bush's escalation of troops has led to a decline in U.S. casualties, McCain noted that the United States still maintains troops in South Korea and Japan. He said he had no objection to U.S. soldiers staying in Iraq for decades, "as long as Americans are not being injured, harmed or killed."

After the event ended, I asked McCain about his "hundred years" comment, and he reaffirmed the remark, excitedly declaring that U.S. troops could be in Iraq for "a thousand years" or "a million years," as far as he was concerned. The key matter, he explained, was whether they were being killed or not: "It's not American presence; it's American casualties." U.S. troops, he continued, are stationed in South Korea, Japan, Europe, Bosnia, and elsewhere as part of a "generally accepted policy of America's multilateralism." There's nothing wrong with Iraq being part of that policy, providing the government in Baghdad does not object.

In other words, McCain does not equate victory in Iraq--which he passionately urges at campaign events--with the removal of U.S. troops from that nation. After McCain told Tiffany that he could see troops remaining in Iraq for a hundred years, a reporter sitting next to me quipped, "There's the general election campaign ad." He meant the Democratic ad: John McCain thinks it would be okay if U.S. troops stayed in Iraq for another hundred years.....

Well, it was straight talk. And McCain's combativeness livened up a session during which he alternated between the old McCain (as in punchy, feisty, humorous) and the old McCain (as in just plain old). He moved a bit stiffly on the stage set up in the middle of the Adams Memorial Opera House. And he--somewhat oddly--shared the spotlight with Senator Joseph Lieberman, who has endorsed him. Lieberman did not merely introduce McCain; he stood by McCain during the entire event, helping McCain to answer questions about education, climate change, and the Iraq war. Several times, Lieberman gave more coherent and animated replies than did McCain. Repeatedly, Lieberman maintained that McCain could rack up bipartisan successes as president. (The Lieberman sidekick bit was curious. But an elementary-age girl in the audience did say, after being handed a microphone, that Lieberman was her role-model and that she fancied McCain. Lieberman hugged her, and the whole crowd oohed at this cuteness.)

Update: Video after the jump.

Evolution Education a Must

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 8:40 PM EST

433843536_b22dbb1592.jpg A coalition of 17 organizations calls on the scientific community to become more involved in the promotion of science education, including evolution. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the American Institute of Physics, and the National Science Teachers Association (among others), the introduction of nonscience, such as creationism and intelligent design, fundamentally undermines education—including learning how to use the scientific method, understanding how to reach scientific consensus, and distinguishing between scientific and nonscientific explanations of natural phenomena. The article appears in the January 2008 issue of the FASEB Journal (Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology).

Based on a national survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters, the study reveals that respondents favor teaching evolution over creationism or intelligent design, and are more interested in hearing about evolution from scientists, science teachers, and clergy than Supreme Court Justices, celebrities, or school board members. "In an age when people have benefited so greatly from science and reason, it is ironic that some still reject the tools that have afforded them the privilege to reject them," says Gerald Weissmann, MD, Editor-in-Chief of The FASEB Journal. "The bottom line is that the world is round, humans evolved from an extinct species, and Elvis is dead. This survey is a wake-up call for anyone who supports teaching information based on evidence rather than speculation or hope; people want to hear the truth, and they want to hear it from scientists."

Amen.

Julia Whitty is Mother Jones' environmental correspondent. You can read from her new book, The Fragile Edge, and other writings, here.

CO2 Emissions Kill People

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 7:54 PM EST

morgue.jpg A Stanford scientist spells out for the first time direct links between increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and increases in human mortality. Mark Jacobson's findings come just after the Environmental Protection Agency's recent ruling against states setting specific emission standards based in part on a lack of data showing the link between CO2 and health effects. The new study details how each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by CO2 would lead annually to upward of 20,000 air-pollution-related deaths. "This is a cause and effect relationship, not just a correlation," said Jacobson, whose study has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. "The study is the first specifically to isolate carbon dioxide's effect from that of other global-warming agents." It's also the first to find that rising CO2 increases mortality due to rising levels of ozone, particles, and carcinogens in the air.

Jacobson's work stands apart, using a computer model that takes into account many feedbacks between climate change and air pollution. Developed over the last 18 years, it's considered the most complex and complete atmospheric model worldwide, incorporating principles of gas and particle emissions and transport, gas chemistry, particle production and evolution, ocean processes, soil processes, and the atmospheric effects of rain, winds, sunlight, heat and clouds, among other factors.

Let's hope it can be used to strongarm the EPA toward something resembling sanity. Maybe give up the useless time- and life-wasting court fight?

Julia Whitty is Mother Jones' environmental correspondent. You can read from her new book, The Fragile Edge, and other writings, here.

Romney's Message of Change Less Interesting Than Slamming Huck

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 7:16 PM EST

romney-tiny.jpg WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — As you can tell from the photo at left, I sat at the very, very back of a Romney campaign event today. The former Massachusetts Governor visited the corporate headquarters of the Principal Financial Group. He emphasized the need for new solutions to meet America's challenges, a campaign message of Romney's that has been overshadowed by the fact that he seemingly redrew all of his political stances in order to match the old Republican establishment. "We need a very different kind of foreign policy," he said. Modernizing Islamic nations and partnering with moderates in potentially extremist areas were priorities. "We need to realize there's an end in sight to our traditional sources of energy," Romney said, calling for new solutions to America's energy needs. And we need new economic solutions to compete with the surging India and China.

Really, though, the one thing that might win this state for Romney tonight are his negative ads against Huckabee. The Huckabee surge has been slowed of late (Huck and Mitt are neck and neck here) not because of Romney's message of change (which has been largely ignored by the media), but because Romney released very effective ads that showed Huckabee's record on crime, immigration, and other issues. Also helpful has been the Club for Growth ad showing fat Huckabee okaying tax raises. It's still running constantly here. I'll put them below. If Mitt wins, you'll know why.

New Music: The Raveonettes - Lust Lust Lust

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 7:11 PM EST

mojo-photo-raveonettes.jpgWhat to make of a Danish duo who seem obsessed with vintage American rock but can't help filtering it through a Jesus and Mary Chain fuzzbox? Well, with a name like "The Raveonettes," they're wearing their influences on their sleeves, and they've often been written off as a retro novelty act. But similarly to better-known male-female duo The White Stripes, the band's self-imposed stylistic restrictions often allow them to soar.

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Ron Paul Attracts Out-of-Staters (And Beavers)

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 7:10 PM EST

ron-paul-speaking.jpg

CLIVE CITY, Iowa — The Ron Paul event I attended this afternoon at Des Moines University was immediately unlike any campaign event I had been to before.

I arrived five minutes late, which ordinarily means I arrived 40 minutes earlier. But when I walked into the massive classroom that was holding the event, Paul was already deep into a discussion of monetary policy. The event was ostensibly a forum about health care, but Paul had already moved off topic and was calling for an end to the federal reserve and a more responsible monetary system.

This would become a theme, because to Paul, the federal reserve and America's monetary system are rarely off topic. Over the course of today's speech, he looped back to hospitals, doctors, and patients every so often, but only to point out that the struggles they face have much to do with inflation, which is caused by the federal reserve and America's monetary system.

The drop of the dollar was a favorite hobbyhorse because it played right into Paul's message. "The wealth of a country is measured by the strength of its currency," he said. "We're flunking."

One other thing Paul did talk about was disentangling ourselves from overseas commitments. He said that while other candidates (Democrats, of course) may want to pull troops out of Iraq, only he wanted to pull them out of Korea, Japan, and everywhere else they are installed around the globe. This would save us a ton of money, Paul argued, and make us safer, because the presence of our troops in foreign countries stokes a lot of the anger that is directed at us. But a few minutes after discussing foreign policy, Paul was back to statements like, "Our nation is based on debt."

ron-paul-chimp-beaver.jpg But for my lack of interest in Paul's pitch, the crowd was loud and enthusiastic. I set out afterwards to meet them. In particular, I hoped to meet the guy in the cape and the two people dressed in animal costumes (a chimp and a beaver, I suspect; judge for yourself at right).

Swift Boat Blow Back: The Hypocritical John McCain

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 5:51 PM EST

The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth funders are back in the political mix, and they're not fooling around. According to the Nation, they've donated and bundled $200,000 for conservative presidential candidates thus far. Romney and McCain have received the most. The fact that McCain is at the top of the list is notable because...

When the Swift Boat ads were first unleashed, McCain was alone among his Republican colleagues to condemn them. A fellow Vietnam veteran, a good friend of Kerry's and a former target of smears about his own service, McCain called the ads "dishonest and dishonorable," a "cheap stunt," and he urged Bush to condemn them. But in pursuit of the GOP nomination, McCain ditched the mantle of maverick for that of hack, and his once-floundering, possibly rejuvenated campaign has been aided along the way by $61,650 from Swift Boat donors and their associates. "There is such a thing as dirty money," said Senator Kerry in a statement, after The Nation informed him of McCain's FEC records. "I'm surprised that the John McCain I knew who was smeared in 2000 and thought so-called Swift Boating was wrong in 2004 would feel comfortable taking their money after seeing the way it was used to hurt the veterans I know he loves."

Read the whole article here. We recently tracked what the GOP's dirty tricksters are up to; the Swifties are here.

Update: More McCain hypocrisy can be found in the WaPo's recent investigative piece titled, "McCain's Unlikely Ties to K Street."

Caucus Predictions: A Fool's Errand, but Popular Nonetheless

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 5:27 PM EST

Fred Barnes on Fox News just predicted that Obama will best Clinton tonight, and that because of Clinton's formerly inevitable status, it will make worldwide news. That's a courageous move by Barnes only because making any predictions today is risky—any of the top three Democrats could win and either Romney or Huckabee could take the Republican race. I'm going to chicken out/be completely honest and admit that I have no real idea what's going to happen. I think the Des Moines Register's last poll will be correct enough to give Obama a slight win, but let's not put that in print or on a blog or anything. And I think Romney's long-established and well-financed turnout machine will give the former MA governor the win over Huckabee and his still-nascent campaign. But again, I'm not going to stand by that. Aren't you glad I'm here?

Let's take a look around the punditocracy and see what the predictions are of those a little ballsier than I.

Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics has this to say:

I'll be shocked if Barack Obama doesn't win. In fact, I think he's potentially sitting on a very big win. He seems to have upward momentum in the polls, his crowds are huge, and his message appears to still be connecting with voters and there is no indication that he's experiencing an erosion of support in the final hours of the campaign. In other words, all the signs are pointing to a strong finish for Obama.
As I've said before, that will open the door for him to run the table on Clinton in the early states, especially if she finishes third - which I think she might. I'm hesitant to underestimate the Clinton people or their organizing ability, but from what I can tell she has nowhere near the enthusiasm in her campaign or among her supporters to match Edwards or Obama....
On the Republican side, the two-man race is literally a coin flip. My sense is the campaigns themselves believe it is so close it could go either way. Romney appears to have the better organization, but the polls say Huckabee has the more committed supporters.

Tom Schaller at the American Prospect:

Mashup Roundup: DJ Earworm Combines 25 Biggest Songs of the Year

| Thu Jan. 3, 2008 4:11 PM EST

United State of PopTalk about polishing turds. San Francisco producer DJ Earworm has done the seemingly impossible: he's combined all of the Billboard Top 25-selling singles of the year into one, 4-minute mashup, and shockingly, it's really pretty listenable. He calls it "United State of Pop," and you can listen to it on his website here. He's been getting a bit of blog press about it, but he's my buddy so I get the first interview.