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As McCain Wins, a Look at Exit Polling

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 9:08 PM EST

So the Republican race has been called for McCain, according to the networks.

Let's look at some exit polling. The Democratic voters in New Hampshire today were 51% registered Democrats, 42% registered Independents. Barack Obama took 43% of the Independents, and Hillary Clinton took 34%. Amongst registered Democrats, those numbers are exactly reversed. (John Edwards takes 16% on each.)

Voters under 30 were 17% of Democratic voters. Voters 50 and older were 46% of voters. The greybeards favor Clinton. Generally speaking, Obama won voters under 40 and Clinton won voters over 40. John Edwards did not do well with either.

62% of Democrats said they are "angry" with the Bush Administration. An additional 30% said they are "dissatisfied, but not angry." 7% said they are "satisfied" with or "enthusiastic" about the Bush Administration. Who, exactly, are those 7%?

86% characterized the economy as "not so good" or "poor." 38% identified the economy as the most important issues in the election. 31% said the war in Iraq, and 27% said health care. I'll bet those priorities are different for GOP voters.

37% said that if Bill Clinton were eligible for a 3rd term, they would vote for him. That includes 57% of all Hillary supporters.

After the jump, the Republican voters....

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Taking a Look at Some Early NH Returns...

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 8:55 PM EST

Your early numbers, as polls close here in New Hampshire:

REPUBLICANS
John McCain 37.3%
Mitt Romney 27.9%
Mike Huckabee 11.9%
Rudolph W. Giuliani 8.9%
Ron Paul 8.4%
Fred D. Thompson 1.5%

DEMOCRATS
Hillary Rodham Clinton 37.6%
Barack Obama 36.4%
John Edwards 16.6%
Bill Richardson 4.3%
Dennis J. Kucinich 2.0%

We've had thoughts on the race here, here, here, and here. Everyone and their mother is saying this going to be an Obama victory on the Democratic side—the only question is how large that victory will be. If it's 5-6 percent, Clinton and her camp will probably spin that as a moral victory. We may actually hear the "comeback kid" line again. If it's over 10%, no amount of spin will be able to slow the media's "blowout" narrative.

We'll keep you posted here at MoJoBlog. Also, an analysis of some exit polling to come.

Update: MSNBC has called the Republican race, with just 12 percent of the votes in, for John McCain. "Mac is back!" cheers explode through the McCain rally venue.

Artist Drives Mass Consumption Home

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 7:31 PM EST

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A picture is worth 1,000 words. Chris Jordan's photo illustrations are worth 200,000 cigarette packs, 170,000 disposable batteries, eight million toothpicks, two million plastic beverage bottles, and 426,000 discarded cell phones. (Not that you can tell from the tiny reproduction, but the image accompanying this item contains 29,569 handguns.) In his humbling exhibit titled "Running the Numbers, An American Self-Portrait" the accomplished Seattle-based artist uses these subjects and others to depict our consumer culture's troubling stats. The smoke-packs illustrate the number of Americans that die every six months from smoking-related illnesses; the batteries represent fifteen minutes worth of Energizer's product output; the toothpicks show the number of trees harvested annually to create mail-order catalogs. You get the picture. So rather than blather on for another thousand words about these fascinating images, perhaps I'd better just send you to look at them.

Is Ron Paul a Bigot?

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 6:37 PM EST

James Kirchick has the Paulites in a fuss. The onetime Marty Peretz assistant (and, some say, political doppelganger) is now a newly-minted TNR assistant editor, and his latest effort is a revealing investigation into Ron Paul's past.

Rumors of Clinton Demise Abound; Let's Take a Deep Breath

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 6:30 PM EST

The Hillary Clinton campaign may be at its nadir. It is reportedly running low on cash, considering skipping the Nevada and South Carolina caucuses because of anticipated losses, and weighing the idea of mixing up its staff at the top level. And on the campaign trail, it seems rudderless and lacking in message. Harold Meyerson spent time with the campaign here in New Hampshire and wrote that it is missing "a theme, an emphasis, a sorting of priorities, a touch of context, some urgency, a larger raison d'etre, a grand -- dare we say, presidential -- purpose."

Anyone who looked all the "inevitable" talk/spin/mythology in the face six months ago and called it phony is unbelievably prescient. But don't count Clinton out. She has a team of politics' best people, and she personally has more grit and resilience than perhaps any other public figure in America. People said McCain was toast last summer, and he will likely cruise to a victory today.

Hillary Clinton might be a better underdog than any of us know. Barack Obama might be a worse frontrunner than any of us know. And Republicans, knowing that Clinton is more polarizing than Obama and thus an easier opponent in the general, might weigh in with a dirty trick to derail Obama.

Update: It doesn't help that Bill Clinton is lashing out in ways that don't seem to be helping.

Stewart and Colbert Return Without the Prompter

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 5:59 PM EST

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As the writers' strike continues, Comedy Central stalwarts Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert's returns to the screen without their scribes last night were highly anticipated. Would they be able to talk, or would they just stare wide-eyed at the screen and stammer helplessly for 30 minutes? Well, both shows were entertaining (if slightly off) and definitely strike-focused, which in the current moment of political frenzy seemed kind of weird.

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Patagonia Deconstructs Your Clothes

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 5:34 PM EST

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Okay, I already covet their gear more than is morally good for me. Now Patagonia has launched a cool interactive website called The Footprint Chronicles. At the moment it's more evolving prototype than matured design. Still, it enables you to follow the environmental footprint of a handful of their products. "The impact of an unexamined life is far more serious than it once was—deadly so," says Patagonia, turning their own practices inside out and letting us pick at the seams. Their long-sleeved Wool 2 Crew shirt, for instance, is both environmentally good and bad: good comes from sustainably ranched sheep in New Zealand, dyed without heavy metals, sewn in the US; bad comes from a 16,200-mile-long footprint between New Zealand and Los Angeles via Malaysia and Japan. Not sustainable.

The site is designed to "ignite conversation every bit as much as corporate introspection," and encourages viewer feedback & discussion. "We've been in business long enough to know that when we can reduce or eliminate a harm, other businesses will be eager to follow suit," says Patagonia… Let's hope so.

Julia Whitty is Mother Jones' environmental correspondent. You can read from her new book, The Fragile Edge, and other writings, here.

Record Turnout Predicted Today in New Hampshire

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 5:18 PM EST

The record for turnout in the New Hampshire primary is 393,000, set in 2000, the last time the state had a contested primary for the Democrats and the Republicans in the same year. The current prediction for today's turnout is 500,000, a number pumped upward by clear skies, warm temperatures, and Obamania. The Secretary of State is sending more ballots to Democratic polling places because they have been running out.

Shaping up to be a very, very big day.

Tuesday's Bemusing Music News Day

| Tue Jan. 8, 2008 4:56 PM EST

News

  • The Kinks' Dave Davies is denying rumors that the band may reunite; his brother and ex-bandmate Ray had told the press that the band members were considering "getting back together." Dave told NME that he and Ray "haven't even spoken in over 6 months… a tour hasn't even been discussed." Dave suffered a stroke four years ago but has continued a solo career.

  • Rappers Lupe Fiasco and Rhymefest are exchanging a war of words over support for Barack Obama, and of course it's all on their MySpace blogs. Fiasco told hip-hop news site SOHH.com that Obama "doesn't impress me" because of "his agendas the bombing of Iran and all that stuff." When confronted by Fest, Fiasco expressed cynicism about the democratic process: "I have no faith in it."
  • The former Jamaica Broadcasting Corp seems to have lost a "massive collection" of 1970s music, including original recordings by Bob Marley and Peter Tosh as well as videos of historic concerts and events. The archive was apparently stolen, with a former program manager for the JBC calling the theft a "national disgrace."
  • Eminem was in the hospital over the holidays due to complications from pneumonia. Huh?
  • Flu Deaths Run in the Family

    | Tue Jan. 8, 2008 4:45 PM EST

    1918Flu_photo.jpg Everyone gets the flu. Some are more likely to die from it, reports New Scientist. A study published in The Journal of Infectious Diseases looked at death certificates and family records going back 100 years and found that blood relatives of flu victims were more likely to die than nonrelatives, even during different flu outbreaks. Risks increased with relatedness: siblings were 74% more likely to die than unrelateds; blood uncles 22%; first cousins 16%. Victims' spouses were also more likely to die, probably because they lived in the same house. The team is tracking relatives of people who died recently to see if they too are at increased risk, and if flu vaccinations help…. Good question.

    Julia Whitty is Mother Jones' environmental correspondent. You can read from her new book, The Fragile Edge, and other writings, here.