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Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb(s)

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 4:43 PM EDT

Matt Yglesias points his readers in the direction of a truly frightening article in the July/August issue of the Atlantic. We would be remiss if we didn't do the same. The article, by Keir Leiber and Daryl Press, argues that the gap between Chinese and American nuclear capability has grown so much since the end of the Cold War that there would only be a very slim chance of China being able to respond to an American first strike. (The authors' original study, which they discussed extensively in Foreign Affairs over a year ago, argued that even the Russian nuclear arsenal would almost certainly be destroyed by an American first strike.)

If the authors are right, this means the end of "Mutually-Assured Destruction," or MAD. They remind us why that matters:

During the Cold War, MAD rendered the debate about the wisdom of nuclear primacy little more than a theoretical exercise. Now that MAD and the awkward equilibrium it maintained are about to be upset, the argument has become deadly serious. Hawks will undoubtedly see the advent of U.S. nuclear primacy as a positive development. For them, MAD was regrettable because it left the United States vulnerable to nuclear attack. With the passing of MAD, they argue, Washington will have what strategists refer to as "escalation dominance" — the ability to win a war at any level of violence — and will thus be better positioned to check the ambitions of dangerous states such as China, North Korea, and Iran.

We're still fighting a conventional "pre-emptive war" that began over four years ago. If the hawks want to turn their pre-emptive wars nuclear, they can do so without fear of retaliation.

— Nick Baumann

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The Leader of the GOP Field is... Hilarious

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 4:12 PM EDT

I know people hate horserace coverage of the candidates. I know they'd rather see serious issue discussions than polls and makeup scandals. But sometimes there's a punchline just sitting there.

From a new AP/Ipsos poll:

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 36%
Barack Obama 20%
Al Gore 15%
Other/None/Don't Know 13%
John Edwards 11%
Bill Richardson 2%
Joe Biden 2%

Republicans
Other/None/Don't Know 25%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
Fred Thompson 19%
John McCain 15%
Mitt Romney 11%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%

And that's with Thompson and Gingrich in the race. There is no "other" left!

Waxman: White House Politicization "More Widespread Than Previously Known"

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 4:01 PM EDT

"I took an oath to the president, and I take that oath very seriously." So said former White House political director Sara Taylor during an appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee last week, a statement she later retracted after Senator Patrick Leahy pointed out that she had actually sworn on oath to the Constitution, not to the commander-in-chief. Yet Taylor's gaffe was actually quite revealing—another sign that the Bush administration's political appointees often place loyalty to president and party above all else, which goes a long way toward explaining why partisan politics has permeated even the most remote corners of the federal bureaucracy.

While there's already a sizable body of evidence to suggest that the White House has presided over an unprecedented wave of politicization, Henry Waxman's Committee on Oversight and Government Reform reported today that the adminstration's "efforts to politicize the activities of federal agencies may be more widespread than previously known."

An Important Omission from the NIE

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 3:43 PM EDT

Spencer Ackerman makes a point I should have made in my earlier post about the NIE. The document goes to absurd lengths to avoid the subject of the Iraq War. Probably because George Bush's grand blunder has made the war on terrorism so, so much more difficult.

Winehouse, Arctic Monkeys Up for Mercury Prize

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 3:40 PM EDT

mojo-photo-mercuryprize.JPG The nominees for this year's Mercury Prize, honoring the best album by a British or Irish artist, were announced today in London; the list has both surprises and shoe-ins. Retro-R&B sensation Amy Winehouse and jumpy rockers Arctic Monkeys seemed guaranteed nods, and have been pegged as equal favorites to win, with booker William Hill giving them each 4-to-1 odds. (I love this whole British "odds on everything" thing. I'm 2-to-1 for going to grab coffee after this.) The Arctics won the prize last year for their debut album Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not; fellow nominee Dizzee Rascal has also won before, back in 2003. Other artists nominated include Klaxons, The View, and New Young Pony Club. A full list of nominated albums, William Hill odds, and "for fans of" descriptions after the jump.

New NIE Summary: Much We Already Knew, Some We Didn't

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 1:02 PM EDT

The publicly released version of the National Intelligence Estimate that Laura mentions below is only a page and a half, so it should come as no surprise that there is nothing terribly insightful in it. ("Breaking news! Al Qaeda is dangerous!") But let's take a look, shall we?

Al-Qa'ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland... We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership.

The FATA referenced here include places like Waziristan, which Mother Jones profiled in an essay and stunning photo shoot in 2004, where the Pakistan government (usually) respects local tribes' claims to sovereignty and keeps only a loose leash on things. Because of the lack of control, the areas are often perfect for terrorist hideouts, a fact the U.S. has known for years — in fact, the emphasis on the FATA in this NIE matches policies from the beginning of the war on terror. Back then, we paid locals for turning in alleged al Qaeda operatives, which merely gave the locals a more powerful weapon in tribal conflicts and filled places like Gitmo with harmless and bewildered individuals who happened to have a well-connected enemy.

Other thoughts from the NIE (which is available here):

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Romney and Edwards: Blood Pomade Brothers

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 11:59 AM EDT

Oh, Mitt Romney, you hypocritical jerk. When John Edwards spent $400 on a haircut, how could you not know that every politician — including you — has embarrassing financial expenditures on his or her public record? Why couldn't you just let the man take the heat from others, instead of saying:

You know I think John Edwards was right. There are two Americas. There is the America where people pay $400 for a haircut and then there is everybody else.

You had to sit in your (multi-million dollar) glass house and throw stones. Today, Politico digs up the fact that you spent $300 on a service that calls itself "a mobile beauty team for hair, makeup and men's grooming and spa services."

Let's be real, Mitt. John Edwards is a perfectly tanned, perfectly coiffed, picture-book politician. You are a perfectly tanned, perfectly coiffed, picture-book politician. Did you honestly think the press wouldn't figure out that you both paid good money to get that way?

Swimmer Shivers to Call Attention to Global Warming

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 11:53 AM EDT

British swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh, a.k.a. the "Ice Bear", has become the first human to set a long-distance swimming record at the North Pole. He undertook the excruciatingly painful stunt to highlight the threat of climate change. For more, go to Blue Marble...

Swimmer Sets Cold Water Record to Highlight Climate Change

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 10:58 AM EDT

First, let this be said: Lewis Gordon Pugh may be crazy. Known as the "Ice Bear", the record-setting swimmer has repeatedly subjected his body to the extremes of human endurance in lakes and oceans the world over. He holds long-distance swimming records for the Atlantic, the Indian, the Pacific, and the Arctic. According to his Wikipedia entry, he shares with the nine-banded armadillo the ability to regulate his internal body temperature at will. It was this particular skill that was on display last Sunday when he became the first human to undertake a long distance swim at the North Pole. For 18 minutes and 50 seconds, Pugh splashed through waters that have thawed to a pleasant 28.7 degrees Fahrenheit. "The water was absolutely black," he told the BBC. "It was like jumping into a dark black hole. It was frightening. The pain was immediate and felt like my body was on fire. I was in excruciating pain." What fun! So, why did he do it? To highlight climate change. The location of Pugh's swim was, until recently, a block of ice. But as global temperatures have risen, much of the polar ice cap has melted. As Pugh explained to Britain's ITV, he finished his swim with mixed emotions. "I am obviously ecstatic to have succeeded, but this swim is a triumph and a tragedy—a triumph that I could swim in such ferocious conditions, but a tragedy that its possible to swim at the North Pole."

Morning Political Trivia for July 17

| Tue Jul. 17, 2007 10:40 AM EDT

Today's question comes courtesy of CQ Politics. Knock it dead:

How many women represented New Hampshire in congress before Carol Shea-Porter, who was elected last year?

I'll update this post later today with the answer and the results of our contest here (morning trivia keeps our DC reporting skills sharp). If you have a question, submit it to mojotrivia@gmail.com. If it's good, we'll use it and credit you on the blog. Please let us know if you got it from another source.

Guesses in the comments section as always. Thanks!

Update

Commenter Nicholas Beaudrot writes: "The obvious guess is zero." It's also the obvious answer, which no one in the DC bureau guessed. They were all thrown off by reporter Laura Rozen's contention that Jeanne Shaheen once represented New Hampshire in congress. (Ms. Shaheen was actually the governor of the Granite State.) Congratulations to Mr. Beaudrot — we'll try again tomorrow.

— Nick Baumann