Chart of the Day: Net New Jobs in June

The American economy added 287,000 new jobs last month, 90,000 of which were needed to keep up with population growth. This means that net job growth clocked in at a very robust 197,000 jobs. This makes up for May's miserable jobs report, and suggests that economic growth is still chugging along at decent rate. The labor force expanded considerably in June and the number of unemployed also went up, producing a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.9 percent. This may be an artifact of graduating college students who haven't yet found work.

Hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees were up at an annual rate of about 2.3 percent compared to last month, a bit higher than the inflation rate. That's not great, but at least it's progress.

Overall, this jobs report was a relief. Employment growth over the past six months hasn't been great, but at least it hasn't been driven into a ditch.

Weekly Flint Water Report: June 24-30

Here is this week's Flint water report. As usual, I've eliminated outlier readings above 2,000 parts per billion, since there are very few of them and they can affect the averages in misleading ways. During the week, DEQ took 148 samples. The average for the past week was 9.97.

Pew has another of its surveys out, this time a fairly generic presidential poll. They do this in June every four years, and they have a pretty good track record. Without further ado, here are the topline results:

Hillary Clinton is 9 points ahead of Donald Trump regardless of whether Gary Johnson is in the race. A subsequent question makes clear there's very little wiggle room here: among voters who support a candidate, nearly all of them say their choice is firm. Bottom line: there are very few undecided voters—who will probably break pretty evenly anyway—and everyone else says their minds are solidly made up.

So does Trump have a chance? Sure—though it's slipping away. Voters are pretty non-thrilled with their choices this year, which means that turnout could make an even bigger difference than usual. But running a ground game requires lots of money and great organization, both of which Trump lacks. At this point, then, it looks like Trump's only real chance is some kind of dramatic external event that suddenly turns voters his way. But I'm no longer sure what that could be. Serious economic problems are unlikely over the next 17 weeks, and terrorist attacks don't seem to help him in the polls. So what is there?

I'm not sure. But if you're wondering why Trump hasn't broken through against a candidate who obviously has plenty of weak spots, I think Pew provides the answer. Trump's campaign is fundamentally based on appealing to people who think they're getting a raw deal from a lousy economy. But views on the economy are actually pretty positive:

Overall economic optimism is back to where it was in 2008, before the Great Recession. That's not very fertile soil for Trump's campaign. Add to that his apparently inability to hold a coherent thought for more than a few minutes at a time, and it's really hard to see a way for him to make up his current polling deficit.

POSTSCRIPT: Even Trump will probably get a post-convention bounce, but don't let that fool you. Wait a couple of weeks and it will almost certainly go away.

Today's grilling of FBI Director James Comey was probably a dumb move on the part of Republicans. He didn't give them anything new to work with, but he did offer up plenty of answers helpful to Hillary Clinton. Here's a small sampling:

Did Hillary Clinton lie?
To the FBI? We have no basis to conclude she lied to the FBI.

Did Hillary Clinton lie under oath?
Not to the FBI. Not in a case we're working.


Do you agree with the claim that General Petraeus "got in trouble for far less"? Do you agree with that?
No, it's the reverse.

What do you mean by that?
His conduct, to me, illustrates the categories of behavior that mark the prosecutions that are actually brought. Clearly intentional conduct, knew what he was doing was a violation of the law, huge amount of information. Even if you couldn't prove he knew it, it raises the inference that he did it. An effort to obstruct justice. That combination of things makes it worthy of a prosecution.


If you're going to classify something, there has to be a header on the document. Right?
Correct.

Was there a header on the three documents that we've discussed today that had the little "C" in the text someplace?
No…There was no header on the email or the text.

So if Secretary Clinton really were an expert at what's classified and what's not classified and were following the manual, the absence of a header would tell her immediately that those three documents were not classified. Am I correct in that?
That would be a reasonable inference.


I understand why people are confused by the whole discussion. I get that. But you know what would be a double standard? If she were prosecuted for gross negligence.


Did you get any political interference from the White House?
None.

Did you get any political interference from the Hillary Clinton campaign?
None.


This last one is from Rep. John Micah of Florida, who spent most of his time laying out a full-blown conspiracy theory about collusion between Comey, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and Loretta Lynch about this investigation. Then he claims there's something "fishy" about the whole thing:

Tomorrow we'll go back to our districts and we have to explain to people, in a couple cafes where I see folks and have meetings. They're going to ask a lot of questions about what took place…One week ago, former president Clinton meets with the attorney general in Phoenix. The next Friday, last Friday, Mrs. Lynch, the AG, says she's going to defer to the FBI. On Saturday morning I saw the vans pull up…Then on Tuesday morning…you basically said you're going to recommend not to prosecute. Correct? And then Tuesday we had President Obama and Secretary Clinton arrive in Charlotte at 2:00. Shortly thereafter we had the attorney general closing the case. This is rapid fire. I mean, my folks think there is something fishy about this. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but there are questions on how this came down.

I hope what you'll tell the folks in the cafe is, look me in the eye and listen to what I'm about to say. I did not coordinate that with anyone. The White House, the Department of Justice, nobody outside the FBI family had any idea what I was about to say. I say that under oath, I stand by that. There was no coordination. There was an insinuation in what you were saying. I don't mean to get strong in responding, but I want to make sure I was definitive about that.

I don't know that this hearing will have any real effect one way or another. But there was no reason for Republicans to hold it other than inchoate rage at not getting the indictment they so desperately believed they were due. It accomplished nothing for their side, since Comey had already delivered a pretty blistering assessment of Hillary Clinton's "carelessness" and was unlikely to go further in front of Congress. But it did give Democrats a chance to get Comey on record refuting several conservative talking points and conspiracy theories. That was dumb. But that's what happens when you live in a bubble where Hillary Clinton is an obvious villain and it's simply inconceivable that she did nothing illegal.

Donald Trump, whose name rhymes with Ronald Crump, went to meet Senate Republicans today to allay their fears that he is going to lose so badly that the GOP will lose the Senate as well.

Things did not go well!

Quoth the Washington Post:

When [Senator Jeff] Flake stood up and introduced himself, Trump told him, "You've been very critical of me."

"Yes, I'm the other senator from Arizona—the one who didn't get captured—and I want to talk to you about statements like that," Flake responded, according to two Republican officials.

Trump said at the meeting that he has yet to attack Flake hard but threatened to begin doing so. Flake stood up to Trump by urging him to stop attacking Mexicans. Trump predicted that Flake would lose his reelection, at which point Flake informed Trump that he was not on the ballot this year, the sources said.

Go read the whole post. There's a lot more.

Donald Trump Has Never Read the Constitution

Donald Trump had a meeting with congressional Republicans today, but it turns out that plenty of people had other plans and couldn't make it:

Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) told reporters he had "a longstanding appointment downtown." Another member said he had to be at the doctor's office and couldn't make it. A third said he had a "breakfast meeting." The member—who asked not to be named—then pulled out his schedule for Thursday morning. When he saw that there wasn't any event on his schedule, the member took out a pen and wrote "Breakfast meeting" on it. "See, I have one!" he joked.

By an amazing coincidence, the same thing is happening to the Republican convention: A surprising number of people are totally booked that week and just can't make it. Still, today's meet-and-greet took place, and there were plenty of attendees. So what did Trump say?

Another Republican in the meeting who declined to go on the record so he could speak candidly told TPM that Trump was asked pointedly if he would defend Article I of the Constitution. "Not only will I stand up for Article One," Trump enthusiastically stated, according to the member in the room. "I'll stand up for Article Two, Article 12, you name it of the Constitution."

The Republican member said that Trump's lack of knowledge about how many articles exist, gave him "a little pause." (The Constitution has seven articles and 27 amendments.)

Translation: Trump has no idea what Article 1 is about. But he'll stand up for it!

Since everyone is going bonkers over the fact that Hillary Clinton sent and received some emails containing classified information, here's a quick reminder that we've known this for a long time. We've also known just what that classified information was. Here is Fred Kaplan:

As anyone who’s ever had a security clearance will tell you, the labels secret and confidential mean next to nothing.... Top secret information is another matter, but the stuff that showed up in Clinton’s private email wasn’t so special. Seven of the eight email chains dealt with CIA drone strikes, which are classified top secret/special access program....Everyone in the world knows about these strikes; nongovernment organizations, such as New America, tabulate them; newspapers around the world—including the New York Times, where some of the same reporters are now writing so breathlessly about Clinton’s careless handling of classified information—cover these strikes routinely.

The other top secret email chain described a conversation with the president of Malawi. Conversations with foreign leaders are inherently classified.

If you choose to believe that top secret is top secret, and it doesn't matter if the classification was ridiculous, that's fine. Knock yourself out. The rest of us can examine Emailgate in a real-world sense and try to decide if Hillary Clinton actually did anything that might have compromised national security. The answer, pretty clearly, is no. We've seen virtually all the emails. We know what the top secret emails were about. We know that Russia could have hacked into her server and read every word and learned nothing of interest.

Hillary was still careless, and she still shouldn't have done it. But for anyone interested in actual national security, it's pretty clear that she never came close to compromising anything even remotely important. We've known this for many months. We still know it. And all the faux outrage from Republicans in Congress won't change it.

From the annals of headlines your presidential campaign really doesn't want to see:

In other news, Republicans are currently grilling FBI Director James Comey about his decision not to recommend prosecution of Hillary Clinton over her email server. I'm "watching" the hearing on Twitter, and it doesn't seem to be going well. It turns out that Comey is considerably smarter than your average GOP member of Congress. "There's no evidence that she lied to the FBI," he says clearly, thus proving the old adage that you shouldn't ask a question you don't know the answer to. The upshot of the whole thing may actually help blunt some of the criticisms Comey made of Clinton in his press conference on Tuesday. Nice work!

I thought the Stop Trump forces had pretty much given up, but apparently not:

Mr. Trump’s intraparty foes, led by a group of rogue delegates, are waging an intense behind-the-scenes effort to push the Republican National Convention’s Rules Committee for a vote on freeing delegates to back whom they wish, rather than being bound to Mr. Trump....The anti-Trump camp needs the backing of 28, or one-quarter, of the 112 Convention Rules Committee members, in order to place the issue before the full convention. A Wall Street Journal survey suggests it could be close.

....Though a majority of the convention delegates are bound to support Mr. Trump, Mr. Evans’s count shows just about 890 delegates are personally loyal to the New Yorker. Another 680 oppose Mr. Trump. That leaves 900 delegates who are presumed to be “in play,” he said. The stop-Trump forces would have to take nearly two-thirds of them to block his nomination.

This still seems like a pretty far-fetched effort to me, but I guess that a coup against Trump isn't totally out of the question. The Republican Convention is shaping up to be surprisingly exciting this year. I hope we all have our popcorn ready.

Trump: I Help Myself Before I Help Others

Hillary Clinton gave a big speech today laying out the case that Donald Trump is a lousy businessman. Trump's counterargument, as usual, is that bankruptcy laws are there to be used, and anyway, only four out of his hundreds of companies have ever gone bankrupt. Oddly enough, this is actually true—but only in a hypertechnical sense, not in any sense that actually matters.

The real story is that he went enormously into debt in the late 80s, did a lousy job of running his casinos, and went completely bust. He only avoided personal bankruptcy because his creditors decided it was better to put him on a strict allowance and keep him on the team that liquidated his assets. When Trump finally recovered, no one would loan him money anymore, so he suckered the public into doing it. His shiny new publicly-traded casino company was the only time we ever got a real look at how Trump runs his companies, and it was a disaster. Trump paid himself millions, but the company never made a profit and eventually went under. Mom and pop investors lost everything. If you want all the gory details, Matt Yglesias rounds them up here.

Anyway, this is just a long windup to share with you his campaign's response to Hillary's speech:

Ladies and gentlemen, your Republican nominee for president. Makes you feel proud to be an American, doesn't it?