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World Oil Production Close To Peak, Good Riddance

In a worst-case scenario, global oil production may reach its peak next year, before starting to decline. In a best-case scenario, this peak will be reached in 2018. This according to the doctoral thesis of Fredrik Robelius of Uppsala University in Sweden. He estimates future oil production on the basis of the largest oil fields.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1% of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60% of 2005 production. However, giant fields are impending dinosaurs since a majority are over 50 years old--and fewer are being found, with less volume available within them.

Robelius' model forecasts future production from giant fields, combined with forecasts on other oil sources, to predict future oil production. In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.--Julia Whitty






Comments

And exactly what will the Bush family and the Bushies in america do. My guess is that some other Rethuglikkkan politician will find a way to give even more of our tax dollars to the oil companies, after all they just are not rich enough. Their mindset, the republican mindset is that tax payer dollars must be put to proper use and that is the taxpayer dollars must go to corporate welfare.
After WWII corporations gave 43% to support government while the american taxpayer contributed 57% to the costs of running our government. Now the figures are that Corporations give 7% while we the taxpayers have taken from us 97% of the cost to run not our, but their government; since 'we the people' no longer own or control our government, thanks to the rethuglikkkans, the party of thugs and bullies. They'll get their comeuppance one day. Probably when the Dems take over all branches of government and will they ever and endlessly scream. I for one will give them no quarter as the rethugs have done since Pope John Paul II put Reagan in the WH and delivered America over to the republican party, which as Karl Rove said will destroy the democratic party, ending our system of checks and balances and converting America into a "Totalitarian Republican Jihadist Theocracy" of endless war-death-kill for profit on behalf of Big Religion, both catholic, my religion, and evangelical fundamentalism. Nearly all catholics are fundies. I AM, the last catholic in America who is not a fundamentalist.

Posted by: bobt on 04/04/07 at 10:48 AM  Respond

Chapter 2 of Plan B 2.0 points out that we are already past peak oil. I certainly hope so.

I do not recall the book in which I read a side comment that when we manage to get rid of our oil habit, the Middle East can slip back into the obscurity it so richly deserves. It was probably either Plan B 2.0 or The Weather Makers.

bobt: Rethuglikkkan -- ROFLMAO!! Great one. I am an antitheist myself. I have a suggestion for the new name of our Rethuglikkkan Theocracy. I suggest The Democratic Peoples' Republic of the Christian States of America.

I don't know about the proportion of Catholics that are fundamentalist (i.e. think with their fundament) but doubt it's any higher than some of the other flavors of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religion (deliberately singular).

These texts were written by people who were, by definition, ignorant of all that we have learned in the last 1500 years or so. I can't imagine why so many people turn to these superstitions for their advice on life. Certainly though, the literal interpretation of any of them is highly dangerous to human life, and quite likely dangerous to our entire species' survival, not to mention many other species more beautiful than ours.

Ah good, that was fun, another excuse to turn a completely unrelated blog post into a forum for religion bashing. It's so cathartic.

Posted by: Misanthropic Scott on 04/04/07 at 7:05 PM  Respond

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