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Study Confirms Human-To-Human Spread Of Avian-Flu
Doctors on scene were mumbling about this when it happened. Now researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia in 2006. Using a computerized disease-transmission model that took into account the number of infected cases, the number of people potentially exposed, and the viral-incubation period, the researchers produced the first statistical confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other rather than from infected birds.
The cluster contained a chain of infection involving a 10-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection. The boy then probably passed the virus to his father—a possibility supported by genetic sequencing. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster were backed up with statistical data. All but one of the flu victims died, and all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to getting sick—a factor crucial for transmission of this particular flu strain.
"The containment strategy [quarantine] was implemented late in the game, so it could have been just luck that the virus burned out," said lead author Ira M. Longini Jr. "It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control. The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time we might not be so lucky."
The researchers estimate the risk of one infected person passing it to another to be 29 percent—a level of infectiousness similar to seasonal influenza A in the United States. They also assessed another large avian-flu cluster in eastern Turkey with eight infected people in 2006, four of whom died. In this case, there was no statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission—though that was most likely due to a lack of sufficient data. "There probably was person-to-person spread there as well but we couldn't get all the information we needed for the analysis," said author, Yang Yang.
After near hysteria, the media's gone Rip Van Winkle on this one. Not a good idea. The problem has not gone away. JULIA WHITTY
Comments
Julia dear, these things are just a part of nature and we need to accept them as such. The world's population of humans is out of control. You should thank your mother for having natural controls, such as famine, plagues , and pestilence. You humans will use war when I don't do my job.
Laboratory models, computer models...they always come out to say what you want them to say (Dawkins)--beacause they are made up enviroments with limited variables. These nits, including Mue Blarlbe, need to check the definition of a pandemic: it ain't avian flu, chickies. Further, to maintain that "something might happen because something exists" is simple fear-mongering paranoia. Why bother to go outside the house when walking is more dangerous than driving or flying? What everyone seems to be missing is the essential question: why is this fear being pandered and what does it gain the people pandering it? Get your heads screwed on! There's a distinct possibility that you'll become ill--DON'T DO ANYTHING. My cure is simple if this kind of logic is your OS: don't breathe. The air is fucking loaded with germs that could kill you! (anxiety phobia) And watch out for gas masks: they are made with plastic, made from rubber, and off-gas and that could kill you. Or how about...I can't wear glasses because they might break--glass breaks, end of science class--and shatter into my eyes and blind me. So, it's better that I can't read and bump into walls.
Posted by: jimsecor on 08/31/07 at 4:53 PM Respond
The media's gone Rip Van Winkle because the issue doesn't warrant the attention when we have so many real pressing issues, such as the Iraq war and the coming war with Iran and the collapse of the world economy.
Posted by: Stephen W. on 08/31/07 at 5:48 PM Respond
Actually, epidemics and pandemics, unlike war, reduce the human population without severe environmental impact. Perhaps, since we seem to be completely unable to reduce our numbers voluntarily, we should just take the view that pandemics actually help our species survive in the long term. True, it would be a lot better and less painful if we could reduce our numbers voluntarily. However, we just aren't doing it. For those who like the Gaia hypothesis, just think of it as Earth's immune system getting rid of an extremely pesky virus.
Posted by: Misanthropic Scott on 09/01/07 at 2:19 PM Respond
You are right Misanthropic. Julia, your argument is flawed. The Tao is nature, and we should not interfere, let nature take its course. Some even argue that war is natural in the human species. Just sit back the Tao way and observe the process. Peace and tranquility to all.
Posted by: Wu Wei on 09/02/07 at 7:30 AM Respond
The point is not to scare the populace about a possible threat, although this seems to be the only approach that a majority of media outlets take with H5N1. The point is disaster planning. Yes life is full of things that will kill you, jimsecor, but an influenza pandemic could be roughly similar to what we saw with Katrina but on a global scale. Influenza can easily recombine and become less or more virulent. It is a virus and as such there is no cure. Sure there are anti-virals, but the virus can mutate so readily that these can quickly become obsolete in the treatment of the virus.
Why worry about H5N1 being transmissible between people? The H and N refer to proteins on the surface of the virus. It is these proteins that people make antibodies against. The numbers after these letters refer to the specific protein out of several known types. Our antibodies are specific for protein type, so when a protein is switched say from the circulating H1N1, H1N2, or H3N2 to H5N1 the flu enters a population which has no antibodies to the virus and the population gets very ill (and with H5N1 roughly 60% die), and unlike the dumb luck of getting hit by a bus as you're walking along someone who looks healthy will infect several other people before they are sick enough to stay home. Of course there wouldn't be the destruction of infrastructure that was seen with Katrina, but the lack of food, water, social systems (police, hospitals, etc.) could be just as bad. Yes, I agree that over population needs to be addressed, and yes, I agree it is pointless for the general public to worry as there is not much you can do to plan for a pandemic, but I sure would like to know that my local hospitals and governments are making plans.
To all of you who have posted in such poor taste about just sitting back and letting nature take its course, I've got a few thoughts for you. Would it be so easy to blithely make that statement if a family member got sick, if you got sick or would you try to get in to see your doctor or go to your local emergency room if you couldn't breathe? Would you depend on a doctor to do what he/she could to cure you or your family member? Don't be too light with this if you're not so sure you could sacrifice yourself or children to the culling of humanity.
Finally, to the news worthiness of H5N1, the possibility of a pandemic raises issues such as access to and the state of health care (do you suppose the impoverished in our communities will fair better or worse than the rest of us?), the inability of the Bush government to do anything except loot the country (Katrina and New Orleans' fate is still a very news worthy event), and the war (how do you think Iraqi's will fare a pandemic without any health care or infrastructure, and what will befall the troops who are already treated poorly by this administration?). If we are to talk about only the "important" stories getting attention, where are our daily stories on Climate Change? All you have to do is read the Guardian for a week to realize that we don't discuss it in the US with any real commitment. Yeah Bush has ruined the country to such an extent that there is never enough time to cover all he has done and continues to do, but that in no way means that we shouldn't focus on all of it.
We are spoiled by the modernity of the US. We, as a nation, take our health for granted and do not realize how fortunate we are to have water and sewage treatment. We are spared many diseases and parasites, we no longer have high infant mortality, we don't even have large epidemics. We have no point of reference for what an epidemic or pandemic would look or feel like. Imagine so many people dying that mortuaries run out of coffins, and nobody can come get Uncle Fred so he is left in the bed he died in or moved to the porch so you don't have to look at him. Imagine getting sick and no one will care for you because there is no one in your family left and everyone else is too scared to bring you food or water. This is news worthy. You don't have to be interested in it, but it is news worthy. If you are, I suggest reading The Great Influenza, as this might give you an idea as to why the CDC, WHO, and other public agencies are monitoring H5N1 in addition to other influenza viruses.
Posted by: Ursula on 09/05/07 at 11:15 AM Respond
I'm with you Ursula. I agree with everyone that pandemics are one of Mother Nature's means of population control. That said, it's very easy to say, "Step out of the way and let her rip," as if it won't be you or your children sick and dying during the pandemic. In reality, what this statement reveals about the posters who make this statement is that they have given little or no thought to the very real impacts a pandemic will have on each and every one of us either through direct illness or secondary infrastructure impacts. Julia, keep this on your radar.
Posted by: Edna Mode on 09/30/07 at 4:48 PM Respond
We already have a pandemic, it is called AIDS. All of our research dollars needs to be put into fighting AIDS. Ursula, you under estimate the contribution that the G/L community makes to fighting global warming by not having children. If AIDS is eliminated, then the G/L community can expand more and reduce global warming and the harmful affects of children. Children are the biggest spreaders of flues. The world needs the China policy, after one child, sterilize. Get on board, or get out of the way.
Posted by: Lars, the Viking on 10/03/07 at 9:54 AM Respond
Lars,
My post was on Bird Flu because that is what the story is on. Yes, HIV is a pandemic and perhaps I should have been more precise with my phrasing. However, I still believe that few people in the US know what an influenza pandemic would look or feel like. (Again, read descriptions of it in the Great Influenza if you're interested.) We as Americans are spoiled by our health care system. We have access to antivirals and you cannot argue that on average someone currently infected with HIV in the US is able to live a longer life than someone infected with HIV in Africa. We can get into other issues here about quality of life, care, and actual access to drugs and care, but I don't want to write another massive post on a topic not related to the story. Currently, in the US we do not see the same infection rates or death rates. I'm not belittling the impact that HIV has had on the GLBT community or the US at large. People have lost loved ones and their loss is great and traumatic. Don't misunderstand me here, I think AIDS deserves funding both for research and prevention, and I don't think it is any less news worthy than Bird Flu. (I volunteer for an organization which performs free and anonymous testing and risk assessment so please do not assume anything about me. It's irritating.) My post was simply to cause people to think about what they were saying and the impact that something like the Bird Flu could have on all of us. If this were a story on TB, AIDS, obesity, or any other health related issue you would find that I feel all public health issues are news worthy and deserve attention. As to your claim that children are a direct cause of global warming and since the GLBT community doesn't have children they are fighting global warming, let me assure you that some of them are more than cashing in on their "credits" by driving gas guzzling monsters so let's have a discussion rather than you assuming anything about me personally.
Posted by: Ursula on 10/03/07 at 2:22 PM Respond
Ursula, Lars is a huge Viking(like ancestors), that is why I drive a "gas guzzling monster." Admittedly, somebody could say that I am a pig, but I have no children(the biggest spreaders of flu).
Posted by: Lars, the Viking. on 10/03/07 at 2:55 PM Respond
Lars,
Kids are the biggest spreaders of the flu. Japan actually did something really interesting and forward until just recently. They vaccinated all school aged children against the flu instead of recommending that seniors get vaccinated (we do the opposite here). Incidences of the flu and flu related deaths decreased to almost nothing in their elderly population. However, they stopped doing this and I'm not sure why.
Posted by: Ursula on 10/03/07 at 3:10 PM Respond
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Posted by: Your Mother Earth on 08/30/07 at 6:22 AM Respond