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Joe Biden Speaks
JOE BIDEN SPEAKS....Here's something interesting. A couple of days ago I was noodling, as we political junkies are wont to do, about what kind of ads Barack Obama ought to be running. I didn't bother posting about it, though, because we amateurs are forever thinking we have brilliant ideas along these lines and we amateurs are almost always wrong.
So imagine my surprise when I saw my imaginary ad basically being narrated by Joe Biden in a speech this morning at St. Clair Shores, Michigan:
Eight years ago, a man ran for President who claimed he was different, not a typical Republican. He called himself a reformer. He admitted that his Party, the Republican Party, had been wrong about things from time to time. He promised to work with Democrats and said he'd been doing that for a long time.
That candidate was George W. Bush. Remember that? Remember the promise to reach across the aisle? To change the tone? To restore honor and dignity to the White House?
....Eight years later, we have another Republican nominee who's telling us the exact same thing: This time it will be different, it really will. This time he's going to put country before party, to change the tone, reach across the aisle, change the Republican Party, change the way Washington works.
We've seen this movie before, folks. But as everyone knows, the sequel is always worse than the original.
The fact that this approach seems effective to me is probably a bad sign. Still: this approach seems effective to me. Basically, you run an ad that uses lots of hot button imagery to plausibly pin the blame for some problem or another (economic meltdown, Jack Abramoff, Katrina, our inability to capture Osama bin Laden, etc.) on "the usual Republican approach" or some such, and then close with, "Now John McCain is running for president. He says he's a different kind of Republican. Do you believe him?" Add creepy music, grainy black-and-white images, or whatever else the current state of the art in attack ads calls for, and you're off to the races.
Eh. Probably wouldn't focus group well or something, I suppose, and besides, it might piss off too many moderate Republicans who might otherwise vote for Obama. Plus it's pretty ordinary stuff that wouldn't generate any media outrage. In the end, who knows? We all think we're marketing geniuses, don't we?
If it's not supposed to look good to you, who is it supposed to look good to? I realize that you're already in the tank for Obama, like I am, but it makes sense to like an idea that expresses what you want to convey to others. If it appeals to your better senses, as this one appears to do, then it might just work on others.
As I was watching some of this stuff unfold last night, I thought to myself that Obama and Biden would be wise to double down on financial market policy with their advisers. Obama should come up with a plan, even if it's mostly broad outlines (which would make sense, since the solutions probably aren't easy to unearth and even less easy to explain to the public) and then give a Big Important Speech on the topic in a swing state, like Ohio or Michigan, or perhaps even on Wall Street itself for dramatic effect. It should be the sort of event that is built up in the media, perhaps even not letting them on to what it is first. And then once the speech is over, Obama and Biden and their surrogates should hammer away at this on the trail like no tomorrow. They could let it slide for a week, and then start to hammer McCain for having no plan of his own.
The benefits of this are that it returns or keeps the race on substantive matters, puts McCain and Palin on defense, and puts Palin and even McCain into a situation where he is not comfortable talking about the issues. It's going to look like he's really out of his element.
Like you, I'm not an expert at this. But this seems like this sort of golden opportunity that could put the race into Obama's pocket once and for all.
This is all well and good, but the analogy to "Mission Accomplished" may be even better. McCain could not possibly have properly vetted Sarah Palin before picking her as his running mate. He simply didn't have enough time. So choosing her amounts to seeking short term political advantage by gambling the nation's long-term future on a faith-based theory (that Sarah Palin would be okay as Prez) backed by inadequate and faulty intelligence. Right now, McCain's in the strutting-at-rallies-maverick-fighter-pilot stage, enjoying the immediate political success of his rash gamble. Eventually, it may (in my view, certainly WILL) all go wrong, just like the "Mission Accomplished" Iraq gambit. Unfortunately, "eventually" may, in this case, come after the election. God help us all.
Okay Kevin, so 8 years ago we had a candidate who claimed he was different. Who said that his Party had been wrong about things from time to time. He promised to work with folks on the other side of the aisle, and said he'd been doing that for a long time.
And these words are how much different than from what Obama has been espousing these last 19 months?
This is just not going to work.
I have read the speech, but haven't seen it. If it sounds as good as it reads it should repeated over and over again.
My only concern is that racism appears to be horribly deep in this country. How else do you explain the closeness of the polls.
I certainly think I'm a marketing genius, but I hope I'm wrong, because I don't think much of Obama's TV ads to date.
My "expert advice": Play the portion of Kerry's speech that begins with "Let's compare Senator McCain to Candidate McCain" and ends with "Talk about being for it before you were against it!" Play it over and over again.
My Friends,
I can lie, lie, lie and the corporatocracy (my *real* friends) will report my lies as the truth. I can't lose! So, vote for me and your 45th President, Sarah cupcake, or vote for a loser. Your choice!
I like it too, Kevin.
Hammer away at will, Joe!
In the case of McCain, war hero 3.0 became senator 1.9 who has now become candidate 1.0. In the case of Palin, earmarker 3.0 has become candidate .08.
I agree with you. This is one of those things that makes me pull my hair out. I do admit that I am not a sophisticated political strategist, but I also admit that the Democrats have lost the last two presidential elections, so I don't really have a lot of regard for "sophisticated political strategists".
I think it's devastating to remind people that Bush also marked himself as a reformer, before governing in a way that would make even Nixon blush. It has the advantage of 1) being true and 2) further tying Bush to McCain in voter's minds.
If you didn't see it, watch the Sep 5 Daily Show. The similarities (verbatim in some cases) between Bush and McCain is pretty stunning. The only thing they didn't do was tie it to a specific issue. (Web video here.)
POW Wives For Truth. That's THE attack ad. See, I'm a marketing genius too.
....Eight years later, we have a Democratic nominee who's telling us the exact same thing: This time it will be different, it really will. This time he's going to put country before party, to change the tone, reach across the aisle, change the Democratic Party, change the way Washington works.
The reason, Kevin, that it's a terrible ad, is because McCain has co-opted Barack Obama's claims. Sure the ad hits at McCain's nonsense, but it also points a finger directly at "Change we can believe in."
Kevin it depends on the targeted voter. Most of the voters have decided, are therefore hardcore winners or losers by the definition coming shortly, and right now we can narrow it down -- it looks like only about 3 to 4% of the electorate is in play.
The independents who just swung for McCain might reconsider their vote, for a few different reasons.
(1) If they are just learning about the real economic policies of both sides, then Biden will help to inform them and hopefully change their minds.
Of particular importance is getting people to understand that Obama shifts the burden of taxes back up the ladder to where it was when the economy was healthier. If anyone doesn't understand the "distribution of the burden of taxes," please send them to see minutes 5:21 to 7:14 of:
Bush Tax Cuts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA1f2MefsMM
(2) Independents tend to favor absolute honesty and character issues more, so an attack on lying can help there. Particularly tying it to lying in governance issues -- the Bushies are replete with examples.
(3) Many independents are pro-choice, indeed they strongly disfavor social conservatism, and so the Republicans have been underpublicizing one of Palin's most important and highly-regarded characteristics among the Christian cognoscenti.
Those independents will be unhappy to learn that both McCain and Palin are just one Justice-Replacement away from ending Roe v. Wade.
"we amateurs are forever thinking we have brilliant ideas along these lines and we amateurs are almost always wrong"
Truer words were never writ.
On the other hand, I think the speech was great too. There's a middle part, though, that's the real punch, where he says what Bush did wrong and that McCain supported it -- it's the real meat.
I agree with you. This is one of those things that makes me pull my hair out. I do admit that I am not a sophisticated political strategist, but I also admit that the Democrats have lost the last two presidential elections, so I don't really have a lot of regard for "sophisticated political strategists".
It's important to remember that as well as you can do in a race in regards to fund raising, registering voters, getting out the vote, and spreading your message, the other guy can always do it better. Think of the eight million more people that voted for Kerry than Gore. Then think of the almost ten million more people that voted for Bush the second time around as opposed to the first time around.
The new approach does seem smart of them. I'll agree with Urban Values above... the "pretend politics" on the GOP side is the thread that connects the dots (Mission Accomplished, Heckuva-job Brownie to Palin-as-foreign policy expert and "Economy fundamentally sound") in a way that voters grasp.
"Hey, Rocky! Watch me pull reform out of my hat!"
"Again?"
Yes, but Biden delivered the speech wearing a shirt with... French cuffs!!!
Media Matters reports that on MSNBC Live Reuters Washington correspondent Jon Decker said that Biden does not "help his case when he's making the argument on economic issues wearing French cuffs..."
As Atrios likes saying, Shoot me now!
____________________________________________
We're only as smart as our currently successful idea, but HEY! Your working your way up to genius. We're seing your idea in action!
John McCain says "change is coming" and picked Sarah "Cupcake" Palin to be his running mate. McCain supported all of President Bush's deficit spending, hired Washington insiders to run his campaign and advise him. Sarah Palin left the town of Wasilla $20 million in debt and was happy to preside over a state government which happily took hundreds of millions of federal government dollars.
John McCain said today the nation's economy is sound. They're not interested in changing the way things are done and neither seems to understand economic problems.
John McCain isn't the person we need to be President in 2009.
French cuffs?
Did he really point that out as something to pay attention to?
Jesus Fucking Christ! We're doomed...
I'd structure the ad this way.
Swipe a little from Citizen Kane. Start off with a white screen, countdown, ad starts. It's an ad for a movie. The cheesy voiceover lauds Bush ("In a political world where cynicism rules, one man....."). The visuals are Flash animated collage, like those "America's Best Contacts and Glasses" ads. The mouth on George opens like Terrance and Phillip, the whole top of his head detaching and flopping up and down. In 10 seconds the laughs and adventure of the Bush years are recalled. Big title slams into the screen, "George Bush 2000."
Come to a screeching halt. Voice over of a dopey and a snide voice discussing how to structure the sequel. Digital tools cover George's collage head with John McCain's head. John McCain's voice replaces George's, The ad runs again, but covers up the music and other audio tracks. The title is only corrected a second after it first shows up. "John McCain 2000", with an extra loop added to the last 0 to turn it into an 8.
"Do you think anyone will notice?"
"Nah, Americans are stupid."
As a totally separate ad, I'd play Karl Rove attacking VA Guv Kaine qualifications as a VP pick. Add commentary crawl showing that Palin has less qualifications.
"I wonder how many times you have to be hit on the head before you find out who's hitting you? It's about time that the people of America realized what the Republicans have been doing to them," - Harry Truman.
I know what you mean. Still, this approach seems effective to me too.
But what do I know?
The line "the sequel is always worse than the original." is what sticks in the mind. It is an easily repeated sound bite for the media to repeat endlessly. That is what we need! Like the unforgettable "he invented the internet." where the candidate's name doesn't even need to be mentioned.
Jon Stewart ran a great video splicing between Bush in 2000 and McCain today. The quotes are virtually identical. You should check it out.
and besides, it might piss off too many moderate Republicans who might otherwise vote for Obama.
Then say "conservative" or better, "right-wing" instead of "Republican." I'm inclined to think that moderate Republicans who might vote for Obama are the ones who recognize that the right wing has taken over their party, and the only way McCain appeals to them is by pretending he's not part of that. It should be easier to persuade them to lump McCain in with the crazies they already reject than to persuade them to turn against Republicans in general.
I've got to disagree, Kevin. This speech demonstrates that the Obama camp has no clue how to respond to McCain's attacks. They show no sign of getting that there's no point in saying anything that isn't a sound bite directed to the swing voters. The reasoning here is too subtle and assumes way too much historical perspective on the part of the listener. What has to be the main point - "You'd be crazy to vote for John McCain because he did or said X" - is never even addressed .
It's incredible that he's trying to talk to people who remember what happened eight years ago - the voters who are going to decide this election weren't paying attention eight years ago and they aren't paying attention now. Someone needs to explain to Joe that while he personally may be up in arms about whether or not George Bush "reached across the aisle", the voters he needs to reach couldn't care less.
All these voters are going to hear is the ONE SENTENCE that's on their TV screen when they return from the bathroom. In New Hampshire, McCain has been hitting this perfectly for the last few weeks:READY TO RAISE YOUR TAXES, NOT READY TO LEAD
Obama has tried to fight back with position papers in small text on split screens. I'm sure I'm just one of thousands with a Pavlovian reflex to head for the kitchen for a beer rather than sit and try to figure out whethter he's finally got something to say this time.
Uh, Kevin. Anyone who has ever been there knows that people on St. Claire Shores aren't gonna vote for the black guy. But I'm sure it was a nice speech and all. Hope Hairplug Joe got a nice view of the lake.