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Reading the Moose Entrails
READING THE MOOSE ENTRAILS....Apropos of nothing in particular, I want to go on the record with a prediction that Sarah Palin will disappear into a well-deserved obscurity after the election is over. She is not a "comer." She is not the future of the Republican Party. She will not run for president in 2012. In fact, she won't maintain any kind of serious national political standing at all. At best, she'll spend the next few years being a celebrity starter at NASCAR races and speaking at Republican prayer breakfasts. At worst, she'll be an occasional butt of late night comics.
Palin is lazy, ill-informed, contemptuous of policy, and way too convinced that everybody in the country is dazzled by her folksy energy and thousand-watt smile. Yes, the diehard GOP base is rapturously in love with Palin and her media mockin' ways, but that's more a reflection of the base's future, not hers. Palin is a three-day wonder who's already a month past her sell-by date, and on November 5th she'll disappear to Wasilla for good.
Just wanted to get that off my chest. Anybody disagree?
Nope. Not here ;-)
Bobby Jindal, 2012. He's the bright Indian Hope of the Republican Party. He's got the religious right on his side and Newt Gingrich and Grover Norquist.
Dude is going to take a look at 2012 if Obama screws it up the next four years; and then he'll likely wait for 2016 having been a succesful governor.
McCain would probably be doing better if he'd chosen Jindal.
I would love this to be true. However, I can't make any predictions about Sarah Palin's future until I see MSNBC call the election for Obama. I see that Ohio is now tied again and I am still worried about the racist vote in Penn. and the red states Obama is leading.
My darkest fear is that she devolve into the public face of the black helicopter crowd. And from there will be a dangerous thorn in our side.
Yeah, I've been interested in how many people think she's going to go on to become a big political star.
I see pretty much the same future that you do, except that I think she's going to remain a fundie darling for a long time to come. You can make a pretty damn good living on that circuit. In the millions, no joke.
But I agree that mainstream Republican politics (such as it is) will not accept her as a serious contender.
Bobby Jindal is highlighting a prayer breakfast or something like that in Iowa this week. Just for speculation purposes.
Sounds right. And I hope you are right, but I went to a newspaper in Anchorage, and the columnist said Palin has angered Democrats and Republicans. He did say, however, he thought she could rehabilitate herself in AK.
From your blog to God's ears. I've been saying I can't wait until Palin is a footnote in US presidential election history.
Her political career is finished, but she could be a talk-show host. Limbaugh's audience loves her. You don't have to actually know anything, and you can choose whom you talk to.
Last night I couldn't remember for the life of me Ross Perot's running mate. I remember his face vividly.
Palin will probably get more mileage than that guy, since she's pretty hot, and he wasn't all that attractive.
But not much more than that I agree. Been a lot of fun having her around though.
If -- and I think it's a very, very big "IF" -- Obama wins the election, AND the Republicans don't steal it as they did the last two, then Sarah Palin will probably wind up with a talk show on Fox News.
Who says Ohio is tied again?
You're right about Palin's future, wrong about the base's. The Republican base will take a long time to defeat, if ever.
I agree, but I wish you were wrong.
I'd LOVE it if the "future of the Republican party" were such an addle-headed, fast-fading flameout that, barely a few months after stepping into the spotlight, she's a national joke to everybody except the equally addle-headed.
But I don't think the puppet-masters of the Right are quite that stupid.
Further: she'll fade away from Alaska politics as well. Too many Alaskans will find her an embarrassment and will therefore gladly send her back to Wasilla.
Rasmussen has Ohio tied.
But, TPM is reporting that the Supreme Court has overturned the GOP win in Ohio over the new registrations.
...Palin is lazy, ill-informed, contemptuous of policy...
I'd agree with you about her future if only the description above didn't remind me of someone else who became president.
I think she can continue to be a troublesome presence. She's a cult now, and it's clear that her cultists will defend her from all critics--indeed, virulently reject critics even [or especially] from the Right. This will give her staying power at least as late as 2012. But I think she's incapable of making a serious run for the White House on her own, because she's incapable of reaching out beyond her own closed circle. Obsessively shutting down media scrutiny, not simply of herself but of her followers, is no way to get your message out.
Kevin,
Well done.
About Bobby Jindal: It's oh so charming when the Republicans charge Dems with racism, as anuses like Confederate Yankee are apt to do. I can't wait until they have a minority candidate and we can enjoy such charges 24/7.
Sarah Palin could only have had a future in the Republican party at the national level if she fulfilled one of her primary symbolic roles effectively - that is, as a highly achieving Republican woman.
But the only woman politician she shouts out to is Hillary Clinton, and the only one I've seen on stage with her is Cindy McCain. No sisters-in-arms moments with Kay Bailey Hutch or Olympia Snowe or the like.
So she's really isolated herself as the pinup girl for the Mark Steyn/Rush Limbaugh wing of the party; a wing that uses bile for fuel and doesn't really need another hero or heroine.
All of which is to say that I agree with Drum here.
SUSA has McCain up by two in Florida now.
Palin is lazy, ill-informed, contemptuous of policy, and way too convinced that everybody in the country is dazzled by her folksy energy and thousand-watt smile
Sorry, but this sounds too much like George W. Bush for me to be confident that a defeated Palin would be through politically,
She is not the future of the Republican Party. She will not run for president in 2012.
We can dream, can't we? A GOP with Sarah Palin as its face would ensure a large democratic majority for another 8 years.
I think it all depends on whether she wins a second term as AK governor. If not, then she will fade into well-deserved obscurity (and possibly take Hef up on his offer to pose for Playboy).
However, if she wins in 2010, then I can see her trying to grab the GOP nomination in 2012. Despite being totally out of her depth, she clearly has absolute confidence in her own abilities, and has a small but vociferous pack of supporters who will reinforce her view of herself as a credible candidate.
Actually, I'm HOPING she runs in 2012, so that the GOP has to wage a destructive internecine battle between the incompetent fundie/Bush faction and the likely-to-emerge adult faction.
Hmm, lazy, ill-informed, devoid of policy knowledge...
SOUND LIKE ANYONE ELSE WHO GOT ELECTED RECENTLY?
I mean seriously, do you think any of those traits are disqualifiers in a Republican primary? And she'll be able to get some knowledge after studying for 4 years.
I agree with you most of the time, but I've got little doubt that she'll be rearing her head in 2012.
Anybody disagree?
Yeppers. She'll never be on a Presidential ticket again, but she'll be a darling of the GOP base for a long time to come - certainly as long as she keeps her telegenic good looks.
Also, once Bush shuffles off to Crawford in 95 days, there'll really be nobody anymore who's the face of the Republican Party.
They'll disown McCain faster than we Dems disowned Dukakis in 1988; Romney and Giuliani lost out in the primaries because they were even worse; it may be Huckabee's turn in 2012, but his appeal last time was surprisingly limited; and while Washington insiders may know who Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are, most of the country doesn't.
So there will be a vacuum in the category "people who can speak for a decent chunk of the Republican Party," and Palin will be there to fill it with that great smile, nice knockers, and nonsense words.
I definitely agree. Once Obama wins she will fade away. Iampwick is right the Rushes of the world need only bile for fuel and may reference her decline but won't be able to revive her.
She's not as smart as W, but she's not as lazy either, and she really, really, really wants the big time. She might tout the small town thing, but her dream is bright lights, A-List glory. She's gotten a taste, and won't let go.
Kevin is correct. Sarah Palin is this year's Katherine Harris. She's a dead woman walking.
You guys are nuts.
Yes, the diehard GOP base is rapturously in love with Palin and her media mockin' ways, but that's more a reflection on the base's future, not hers.
Kevin, don't you realize that its the base that essentially gets to pick the Republican presidential candidate?
I'm not saying that Palin is necessarily going to win the nomination in 2012, but she certainly has the kind of self regard you'd expect in someone who plans to run. I see no reason to count her out. Jeb Bush will be a formidable opponent, though.
Gotta disagree with you, here, Kevin. I don't think she'll run for nomination in 2012, but if Begvich beats Stevens in November - which is looking more and more likely - I bet she challenges him in 2014 and becomes the junior Senator from Alaska.
Nate
It's not all doom and gloom for Palin. The University of Alaska at Fairbanks is looking for a professor of modern Russian history (true).
In terms of electoral politics, you're probably right. But whether on FNC or some conservative radio network, I predict she'll return to broadcasting, and The Sarah Palin Show will run for years and years.
Assuming she wants a political career, I doubt she'll run for re-election in '10, or president in '12. More likely she'll primary Lisa Murkowski and then spend her first Senate term building some cred and perhaps even learning a bit about the world. If she doesn't remain as governor (hey, I could be wrong) or get to the Senate -- or if she has enough perspective to see that her real future is as a wingnut star -- she'll be in talk radio three years from now.
"Just wanted to get that off my chest. Anybody disagree?"
I do. I think that Palin has a great chest.
And she winked at me.
Seriously, Palin will make more money giving speeches than President Bush will.
Sarah Palin will become the poster girl for the fiery-eyed religious red-hots of the Taliban Right. She'll probably make it to the Republican primaries -- taking up the bedraggled mantle of Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes -- before flaming out and going on to a successful career as a whack-job right-wing radio talk show host.
I think we are on the verge of a huge split in the Republican party with Sarah Palin representing the pitchfork waving, faith based nuts and the George Wills of the world representing the upper crust, coastal, "intellectual" conservatives. Saint Ronnie's unholy alliance of social and fiscal conservatives is falling apart. It is nearly impossible to maintain over the long term pairing a populist movement (which almost always degenerates into the dumbed down madness we see at McCain-Palin rallies) with an educated elite who truly don't care about the social and economic concerns of the masses. The only thing they have in common is a belief that government is somehow bad -- which fades to complete obscurity when people need help as badly as they do now, given the economic crisis.
Last night I couldn't remember for the life of me Ross Perot's running mate. I remember his face vividly.
Admiral Stockdale.
To Mr. Drum's point, I agree. She'll fade into obscurity on the national political stage. I agree with other commenters though, that she'll have plenty of opportunity to make money on the wingnut circuit (lectures, Faux News, prayer breakfasts, etc.).
OK, I'll admit it. I love Sarah Palin. Let the tomatoes fly.
Palin struck a chord in the Republican party as no one has in a long time. She's hugely popular in her home state because she cleaned out corruption from among her own Republican ranks. Americans (not just Republicans) eat that stuff up -- as well they should.
Palin resigned her first big job with a substantial salary -- head of the AK Oil and Gas Conservation Commission -- when she was asked to play along. Resigning a job based on principles used to be common. Now, it's pretty much unheard of.
Before the Dems smugly claim that only the Repubs are corrupt, I humbly submit that most Americans view both parties as equally corrupt. See, for example, Tim Mahoney, who paid off his mistress, Harry Reid and John Murtha, who benefited personally from earmarks, and Charles Rangel, who rents four rent-controlled apartments.
Can anyone here name any other prominent politician besides Palin who actually has a reputation for cleaning out corruption? I didn't think so.
For every Republican insider who has publicly admitted Palin was a gimmick pick, there must be 20 more who are gamely keeping quiet for the sake of the party.
When this is over, she'll have the support of all those "Joe Sixpacks" she's been winking at, but the party is going to drop her like a steaming moose muffin.
Exactly! She's going to get her own radio show, and possibly be a commentator on Fox.
I don't think she's out of the woods on the various scandals. There is still a lot of information that will be released after the election. Alaskan's are clearly disgusted by her barefaced lies about the Troopergate report. Clearly the McCain campaign tampered with witnesses and attempted to obstruct justice. There are a lot FBI folks up there who aren't afraid of indicting Republicans.
I doubt she will even try to run for re-election and she will be lucky to avoid jail. Even for a Republican that pushes her out of elective office and into the wingnut fringe.
Also, I wonder why Wooten hasn't filed suit against Palin. The State did all his due diligence. He could represent himself and retire comfortably on the settlement.
I was hoping she'd stay around to screw up Hucklebee and Jindal's chances in the 2011-2012 primaries.
But I'd say she'll land a fat contract with Fox and be on wingnut welfare to the end of her days. She'll specialize in attacks on Pres. Obama: she'll have a ghost written Regnery book on the link between Obama, Ayers, 9/11, Waco, and Vince Foster's death coming out in mid-2009.
I disagree. I think you are thinking like a Democrat instead of a Republican.
To most Republicans, the failures of the Bush years are due to deviations from conservative principles, the fault of Democrats, bad luck, and voter fraud. 25% of the country still gives the guy decent approval ratings.
Where are these people going to go in 2012? The maverick didn't turn out so well, see? People want a real conservative! Romney doesn't excite them for religious reasons. Who is left? Who can be the standard bearer for the multitude who are utterly convinced that conservatism didn't lose? Huckabee and Palin.
Now ask yourself what candidate is in the best position to run on the platform that conservativism didn't lose? Palin.
My guess is that the GOP contest will be between someone who thinks the GOP needs to change direction, and those who are convinced the GOP lost because their hearts weren't pure enough. Everything I have seen the last 8 years convinces me that inside the GOP the conservative dead-enders outnumber those who are willing to adapt.
Unless the Democrats go off the rails, it is going to take the GOP a looong time to regain electoral credibility, because they themselves don't believe they have lost it.
She'll always be a darling to the poor sappy 27% who'd vote for a pig in lipstick (or even a skank) if it had an 'R' next to its name on the ballot.
For the rest of us, though, she'll be a fond memory of the Republican Party's lowest, most humiliating, most pathetic point in its already sad little history. Heh.
It's not all doom and gloom for Palin. The University of Alaska at Fairbanks is looking for a professor of modern Russian history (true).
Posted by: Geiseric
Where, under her tutelage, students stand on the glacier and stare at Russia through spy glasses for the requisite 3 credit hours...
Was Sarah actually a contender or just another "darling" brought in by the ever plotting Rovians to lure Hillary's jaded followers.
It's too much like NASCAR, and that female driver they labeled; "darling of the raceway." A label that stunk of chauvinism and condescension.
I associated the same smell with Sarah Palin and the Right who put her out there. She is too inexperienced to be a threat, too easily led not to stick to the GOP coached script, and too naive to see the knife in her back.
And she will still be all these things if McCain does pull this election off.
I don't know, I think she will probably run in 2012. But she will bow out after she gets destroyed in the first primary.
My guess is that she will become a host of Fox News or Talk Radio.
And I'm curious Kevin, which facts drew you to this conclusion.
The fact that all her rallies still draw thousands.
The fact that she has dominated the news coverage during this campaign.
The fact that her speech at the Republican convention was universally declared a home run.
The fact that if measured honestly she is the individual that has had the biggest effect on this race.
You're right to call this post "Reading the moose entrails.." because it sure has no basis in reality.
You're assuming that the Republican ticket will lose. I'll believe it when I see it. There are still way too many people I encounter who are easily swayed by the republican smear/fear campaign and/or will never vote for a black man. And I don't live in the rural america either.
The fact that she has dominated the news coverage during this campaign.
Posted by: John Hansen
You mean, her name did. She did not.