RECAPITALIZATION….Via a link from John Quiggin, here’s some raw data for you. It’s several years old (too old to include data on Japan’s banking crisis), but it includes historical data on the initial cost of recapitalizing banking systems after most of the other financial crises of the past few decades. Given the different nature of every crisis, and the different nature of small countries vs. big countries, it’s hard to suggest that there’s any kind of “average” recapitalization required after a banking collapse. Nonetheless, the historical records suggest that 5% of GDP would be a reasonable guess and 10% would hardly be out of line, especially given the epic nature of our current meltdown.
And how are we doing in comparison? So far the Treasury has committed $250 billion as part of the Paulson bailout plan and another $100 billion or so to Bear Stearns, AIG, and Fannie/Freddie. To get to 5% of GDP we’d need to increase that to $700 billion. To get to 10% we’d need to increase it to $1.4 trillion. Just some benchmarks to keep in mind.