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Sadr's Slump

SADR'S SLUMP....The latest from Baghdad:

More than 10,000 supporters of the radical anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr gathered in Baghdad's Firdos Square on Friday to protest the Iraqi government plan to sign a security agreement which would maintain American troops in the country for up to three years. With powerful symbolism, demonstrators hanged an effigy of President Bush from the plinth that once supported the statue of Saddam Hussein that was toppled after Baghdad fell to U.S. troops on April 9, 2003.

Hmmm. Am I the only one who thinks 10,000 is a pretty puny turnout for one of Sadr's protests? Didn't he used to brag about turning out crowds of nearly a million? Symbolism is nice, but a few hundred thousand marchers would have been a much more impressive show.

Based on this, I predict that the SOFA will pass parliament shortly. You heard it here first.

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Personally, I hope it fails and the US has no extended authority to remain after the first of the year.

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If Obama doesn't leave in 18 months, like he said he would prior to election, I've no doubt that Iraqis will respond very negatively, the citizens, not the government. It won't simply be Sadr and his group but rather all the citizens. We can't stay in Iraq, nobody should doubt that fact. Making Hillary Secretary of State will NOT change that fact.

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Crowd size estimates are notoriously variable, depending on who's doing them. Here in the UK, there's a regular issue with the police under-reporting demonstrations by a factor of about 4 -- consistently. No source is cited for the estimate of 10,000 Sadrists, but elsewhere in the article it says:

"In Firdos Square, protesters sat in rows of 50 stretching back more than half a mile. They filled Sadoun Street, beside the Palestine Hotel and in front of the colonnaded traffic circle where five years ago American troops pulled down the dictator's statue in scenes televised around the world."

Fifty wide, half a mile deep -- if there were 10,000, that would indicate 200 rows. To be half a mile deep they'd have to be spaced 15 feet apart, which suggests to me that something is Not Right about the 10,000 estimate.

If, however, we go by the 4:1 metric, the rows would be about 3 feet apart, and we'd have a figure of 40,000 Sadrists. Which is closer to Sadr's usual turn-out.

Does anyone know how large Firdos Square is?

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