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Are the Culture Wars Winding Down?
Demographics guru Ruy Teixeira says that the era of the culture wars is drawing to a close. Why? Demographics, of course:
First, Millennials — the generation with birth years 1978 to 2000 — support gay marriage, take race and gender equality as givens,
are tolerant of religious and family diversity, have an open and positive attitude toward immigration, and generally display little interest in fighting over the divisive social issues of the past.
....Second, the culturally conservative white working class has been declining rapidly as a proportion of the electorate for years.
....Other demographic trends that will undermine the culture warriors include the growth of culturally progressive groups such as single women, and college-educated women and professionals, as well as increasing religious diversity. Unaffiliated or secular voters are hugely progressive on cultural issues and it is they — not white evangelical Protestants —who are the fastest-growing “religious” group in the United States.
Over at the Democratic Strategist, somebody named "staff" predicts a positive feedback loop that will soon turn culture war issues into a political backwater:
The point here isn't, or isn't just, that the American population is becoming more progressive on cultural issues. It's that as cultural issues lose political punch, the incentives for conservatives to focus on them decline, further reducing the politicization of culture.
Teixeira himself says that while this may eventually be the case, it could take a while before the culture warriors calm down: "Indeed, reaction to their current desperate plight may lead them to intensify their efforts in some states, especially where demographic change has been slow or where local right-wing culture war institutions retain strength." I think that's right. Barack Obama has been remarkably successful at marginalizing culture war issues so far, but it's not clear to me that he can keep this up forever. It's going to be a rough road before we get to Teixeira's promised land. Fasten your seat belts.
Wrong Question
I'm going to make the odd proposal that it's not winding down; it's just losing its value as a GOP electoral strategy. One reason is that it was somewhat overrated in the first place. It got a lot of press, and some of this had a basis worth watching, between anger over Roe v. Wade and the growth of media channels beyond that old TV networks, enabling some celebrity preachers to find outlets. But a lot of it was rebranding of Nixon's Southern strategy, so that harnessing Red State resentment would no longer appear to be about race.
Conversely, its winding down is somewhat overrated, despite the waning of opposition to gay rights, because the growing important of Hispanic voters actually supports some quote-unquote traditional values. The problem for the Republicans is that this growth also loses them votes.
It'll get much worse first.
It'll get much worse first. The conservatives thrive on their false belief that they are a persecuted group. As they continue to lose the culture war, they will see that as additional persecution.
They may represent only a small sliver of the population, but they are loud as hell and given a national platform to spout off their nonsense (i.e., why is explicitly racist Pat Buchanan still on my TV?) with few opportunities for sane people to refute them. They will have to get even more extreme and more outside of excepted norms before that changes.
No matter what the demographics say, I don't think it will really end any time soon. I expect them to escalate to violence (at which point they may finally be rejected from our discourse). At least, that's what my conservative friends keep insisting will happen. They are shitting their pants in anticipation of a new civil war. For once, I take their word at face value. But I don't think it will work out like they hope.
You "expect" them to escalate to violence?
They already have. Dr. Tiller was murdered by right-wing domestic terrorism.
They should take a trip
They should take a trip through Red California. They'd find culture-war enthusiasm to spare.
Sadly, those Millennials
Sadly, those Millennials aren't nearly as progressive on abortion; fights on that won't be doing away anytime soon.
The current moment is also
The current moment is also notable for the incredible array of well-known problems the country faces; liberals and conservatives have plenty to fight about without delving into culture war tactics, and anyone who does risks being accused of missing the big picture.
Incidentally, although the culture wars are always attributed to a conservative silent majority, I think a lot of progressives will be as sad as conservatives to see them die out - for them as much as for conservatives, it's one of the few areas where politics polarizes into black and white. Watching liberal commentators cling to an increasingly marginalized and quickly shrinking population of intolerant hicks as representative of conservatism should be interesting.
Culture Wars
If the Republicans were smart, they would abandon the culture wars for the reasons cited---the inexorable demographic trend toward groups that are essentially libertarian dominating the political landscape. Then focus on the economic issues, where I think they would probably make some inroads. But, don't count on that happening.
Abortion
It depends on what you mean by culture wars. On the longest-lasting culture war issue--abortion--millenials are at least as if not more pro-life than any baby-boomer or later generation.
The "Millennials" are no
The "Millennials" are no interested in the culture wars because they have no stake in it and they are at their most liberal stage of their lives. Just wait until they get married and have kids.
Their love of rampant sexuality on TV and movies will be blunted a bit when they have to worry about explaining graphic sex acts or sexual innuendo to a toddler. All that cool hip-hop isn't so cool when your youngster starts his mother a bitch or 'ho.
And while they may be OK with other people's sexuality and marriage choices, they might hesitate a bit when the media and schools attempt to ram these beliefs down their children's throats. They might believe that they know how to raise their children best and their six year old should not have to read (or be read) "Heather Has Two Mommies" or learn how to put a rubber on a banana at age 11.
Religious diversity is great until they want to teach their children their own religious views and not have the media and school system teach their children everyone else's religious values - and tell their children that those different religious values are just as important (or more important if the Millenial happens to be a Christian).
Rampant illegal immigration, with the federal and state governments not enforcing immigration laws, teamed with government giving these illegals money and aid sounds good in theory. But it starts to suck when you see your tax bill or watch an illegal take your job because he works for less.
Of course, some Millennials might not care at all. But I'll bet they'll care about uncontrolled government spending, with all its debt and the taxes they have to pay to clean up the mess of the preceeding generation.
Mac! You *almost* had a
Mac! You *almost* had a point there. And then you had to blow it by being specific and making stuff up or bringing up problems that Republicans had about 30 years to solve and never even tried. Man! You were *that close* (//) to making sense. Well there's always next time.
It's the baby boom
When they were in their child-rearing years they clamped down so their kids wouldn't behave like their generation did in the sixties. Now that the baby boom is phasing out of active parenthood, their activism in 'family values' issues will mellow too.
Perhaps it's time for you
Perhaps it's time for you then to stop demonizing anyone who challenges abortion on demand, affirmative action based on equal outcome and not equal opportunity, modern feminism as based on gender inequalilty as angry white guys. Because as you folks point out, the angry white guys are not the ones making these arguments now, we hear them from significant numbers of women and people of all backgrounds.
Reaching a new equilibrium
American culture went through a huge shift between 1950 and 1970, and things have settled down significantly since then. Compare the culture between 1950 and 1970, and the differences are dramatic. But compare 1989 to 2009, the differences are pretty small.
It took a while for the society to come up with a more-or-less common moral code that would catch up to the new reality, but I think we're getting close now. Some of the crazier experimentations of the 60s and 70s has been abandoned by the Left, where as the Right seems to be becoming a little more broad minded.
When I was in high school in
When I was in high school in the mid 70s, the golden oldie stations that no one would listen to were playing music from the 50s and early 60s -- 10 - 15 years earlier.
Now, there are music stations of all sorts still playing music of the 60s, 70s, 80, and 90s mixed in with today's stuff.
"where as the Right seems to
"where as the Right seems to be becoming a little more broad minded."
Sadly, there's almost no acknowledge of this at most progressive websites. It's always incumbent to demonize the right in vicious tones and declare how racist they are, and this is done without realizing how many people not of the right are being alienated with these tactics.
And there are still some crazy leftist experiments in progress, and anyone that wishes to discuss them however rationally is called names, and shouted down.
Be nice when we re-embrace free speech and discussions.
Yer right. Of course the
Yer right. Of course the '60s, early '70s went too far in some areas. Every "revolution" I've ever heard of went too far. But then when we settle in to the new "middle", and I think we may be close to reaching that point, you find that the new middle is much different than the old one. There may not seem to have been much dramatic change between '89 and '09 as the country continued to "swing back" from the '60s "extremes", but when we reach the new normal, it'll be nothing like what was normal before the '60s -- it'll be much better, I think -- and that would not have happened without the craziness of the '60s. You have to push a lot to get the behemoth to move a little.
Yes, the culture wars are
Yes, the culture wars are winding down. This is a symptom of decline and decadence. Acceptance of illegal aliens implies that the people have become apathetic and hopeless about corruption in government. The decadent values of political correctness have supplanted integrity and patriotism as our highest values. Stability in a diverse population is a luxury of excess wealth and jobs. As the United States continues to decline economically, ethnic groups will begin to compete for the remaining scraps. This is unalterable human nature.
I bet you didn't even have
I bet you didn't even have to think about this, it just came naturally, like duckspeak.
How can anyone with the
How can anyone with the least acquaintance with history not think that "culture wars" are inevitable? The issues change through the centuries, the temperaments involved are universal.