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Chart of the Day
I haven't had a chart of the day here for weeks. What the hell is going on around this place?
Well, here's today's: day trips to Canada are down. Way down. It's not clear why, either. The accompanying story blames it mostly on new passport rules, along with "other factors, including the recession and the higher Canadian dollar." But that doesn't really hold water. The downward spike from May to June might be due to new passport rules, but the chart makes clear that travel has been steadily decreasing ever since it recovered from 9/11 in early 2002. Obviously passport rules have nothing to do with this 7-year trend, and neither does the recession or the strength of the Canadian dollar.
So what is it? Take your guesses in comments.
UPDATE: Actually, maybe the exchange rate explains it after all.
After 9/11 Canada got access
After 9/11 Canada got access to US databases. I have a misdemeanor DWI from 4 years ago so I can't go to canada without filing a request for a special exemption weeks or months in advance. I don't know how many people this affects, but it certainly prevents the millions of people in my situation from going.
I expect a lot of the day
I expect a lot of the day trip traffic has historically come from the Detroit area as it is the only large city adjacent to Canada. The economic desperation in Detroit is probably a factor, but the drop is so huge one expects their is something else going on here.
Casino Gambling?
In 1994, the first casino opened in Windsor, Ontario. It attracted a lot of Detroiters and more casinos opened in Windsor shortly after. This corresponds to the increase in border crossings after 1994 shown on the graph. In 1999, Detroit opened its own casino and more have opened since. With longer border crossing times after 9/11 and increased competition from local casinos and I'm sure this has reduced the number of people going to Windsor to gamble. This can't account for everything but it does match a couple of the major inflection points.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesars_Windsor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM_Grand_Detroit
yer forgetting buffalo
yer forgetting buffalo
Oh Canada
It must have something to do with their socialist health care, eh?
...
Well, the new passport rules guarantee I won't be going, but the border crossing checks were getting pretty onerous.
vancouver
i was up in bellingham, wa back in 2002 and looked into taking a ferry up to vancouver. i don't remember the exact details but i remember not being able to go because i didn't have my passport or an original copy of my birth certificate.
How Could I Have Failed To Notice Before?
Have you been up there? The place is full of CANADIANS!
Canadians...
They'll make you puke with their politeness.
Money.
I bet if you charted the exchange rate, you'd see an almost perfect inverse relationship.
Exchange rate
tagged as:- solution
You are correct.
http://www.x-rates.com/d/CAD/USD/graph120.html
apples to oranges
That chart only shows 4 months, whereas the border crossings chart shows a decline since 2001.
To hell with catch and release
They're all fished out up there.
I live near Detroit.
I live near Detroit. Thousands of young adults used to go to Windsor across the river because the drinking age is 19. U.S. Customs never cared too much how buzzed you were coming back. Now they do care, and that has reduced cross-border drinking excursions significantly.
Drinking aside, U.S Customs has become a major pain. It used to take just a few minutes to clear customs in one of the friendliest border crossings in the world. Now it frequently takes one hour at the border. Who wants to spend their time waiting in line at the bridge?
I haven't been to Canada
I haven't been to Canada ever since Continental Drift combined with Global Warming to open up that Northwest passage. Freaky and scary. I prefer tornadoes.
The border checks have been
The border checks have been getting more onerous with time. Before and even just after 9/11 you could cross the border pretty freely.
True story: after the Super Bowl where the Pats beat the Rams, we crossed the border to continue the party. The Canadian border guard gave the driver a breathylizer - he was legal on both sides of the border, but told us to while away an hour or two at the strip club down the road to be safe. But, before that they decided to give us all breathylzers to see if one of us could drive. The passengers were toasted so a no go.
Two hours later we come back and drive off.
Shortly AFTER 9/11 I try crossing without a passport (perfectly legal) at Detrot to go onto NY. I get cliched Canadian passive agressiveness about Americans not treating Canada like a real country and how that needs to change. Then she let me through.
Since then I've brought my passport each time and I suspect that, until I changed plates, I was matched up for having been interrogated more fully before.
Too Bad Really...
For the past 50 years our two countries have become inexorably closer, more intimately intertwined. We are still the biggest source of imports to the US, and its biggest foreign customer. But ever since 9/11 there has been a change afoot. It began with a lie. It has been stoked by fear and innuendo and disinformation ever since.
We've gradually become soviet cannuckistan. We offer save harbour to thousands of evil terrorists just waiting to strike unsuspecting American cities. We are home to scary gay married people and those who would foist upon you the scourge of socialized medicine.
Once close neighbours and friends, we have slowly become the "other". We eat french fries - hell some of us even speak it. We forgot to go to Iraq, although we have lost more soldiers per ca-pita than anyone else in Afghanistan (apart from Afghans, of course). But still, we weren't amongst the "willing". Time to harden your borders, hunker down and look after number one.
Perhaps things will change. Meanwhile, you'll have a little less "BC Bud" to worry about, and we'll have fewer handguns in Toronto. We can still e-mail.
Cheers.
...
But I like BC Bud. It's the Manhattan Trailer Weed I can't stand.
Oh, nonsense
What an absurd load of self-pity.
The vast majority of Americans who cross over the border to Canada are folks who live in the border regions, not idiot Republian politicians in D.C.
re: oh nonsense
OK, my post was over the top. Obviously most cross-border visits are local. The fall of the US dollar is a big factor, but the exchange rate has fluctuated all over the place during the period represented in the chart.
My point is simply that there has been a low-level hum of negative impressions from the right-wing noise machine since 9/11. The problem is that these themes are regularly regurgitated and amplified by uncritical media to the point they become the truth, even for moderates and liberals.
"WASHINGTON -- Former Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday said he believed some of the 9/11 hijackers entered the United States from Canada, triggering a new round of frustration and anger among Canadian government officials only days after a similar remark by U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano." Vancouver Sun, April 15, 2009
Sober, respected figures repeat falsehoods in national media. This is one small example, but over time these sorts of things bring real-world consequences. Just this week unmanned aerial vehicles were being launched to conduct electronic surveillance deep into Canadian border communities. Predictably, this has created animosity on the Canadian side.
I'm not whining about where Americans choose to travel. Go wherever. It's just a pity that a long-standing relationship is being diminished for cheap political gain, through fact-impaired, ratings-obsessed media.
For me, it's been a
For me, it's been a combination of the return border crossing getting progressively longer and more annoying, and the strength of the Canadian dollar removing the "Canadian discount." We used to drive up to Whistler to ski (from near Seattle), but haven't done that the last couple of years. I would have loved to go up for the Olympics, but it was pretty much impossible to get tickets.
Us visits to Mexico also down, but Canadian visits up
A little while after reading this post, I stumbled onto this story via the Agonist.
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=341670&CategoryId=14091
"U.S. Tourist Arrivals in Mexico Drop by Half Million
MEXICO CITY – A half-million fewer U.S. tourists traveled to Mexico in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2008, the National Tourism Confederation, or CNT, said.
Between January and June of this year, 2.85 million Americans visited Mexico, while during a similar period in 2008 there were 3.35 million, or a drop of 14.7 percent."
What really struck me was this part:
"Canadians were second in the number of tourists, increasing their presence by 10.4 percent from 708,757 to 782,812. Next came the British, French and Spaniards, though the number of visitors from Spain plunged 30.5 percent."
I'll wager that a good bit
I'll wager that a good bit of the drop in tourism to Mexico is swine-flu-fear.
Anyone have any idea what
Anyone have any idea what happened there in the early 80's that seems to have briefly sent US visits to record levels? As for Kevin's question, yeah I also think a combination of the crappy economy in places like Michigan and upstate NY keep Americans away, as well as the increased assholitude of US Customs. I've travelled (by plane and auto) to Canada a number of times over the past 6-8 years and have always found the Canadian border officers to be unfailingly courteous and professional. Worst experience ever? The US consulate in Toronto. Totally a bunch of dicks.
...
Expo '86 in Vancouver was awesome. Closest I've ever come to a world's fair. I saw 360 HD, Brazilian emeralds, Saudi gold and had my name written in Arabic. Along with lots of other educational and outstandingly neat things.
Drinking age?
The early Eighties saw the US drinking age rise from 18 or 19 in most states up to a uniform 21. Teens in places like Michigan and upstate New York probably were the source of that traffic spike.
It's because 'real'
It's because 'real' Americans are terrified of those Canadian death panels.
Um, how long?
Any idea about the trend in multi-day visits?
Maybe if the border crossing times have gone up, we've averaged them out by staying the weekend.
I think it is working both
I think it is working both ways. I spent the winter working in BC and people there told me they go to the US less because of the border hassles. As a friend of mine says "Welcome to Fortress America".
My take
Agree with the big spike in day trips earlier due to lower drinking age.
Certainly the Detroit Casinos siphoned off a lot of traffic that might have gone to Windsor, especially after Ontario went no-smoking. (Lots of those drinkers and gamblers need those smokes.)
But the main reason my family hasn't been back it the AGONIZING wait and hassle coming back to the States -- even with passports (before they were required). And the constant doubts that we could have gone to Canada and NOT be bringing something back. (Mainly we would go birding at one of North America's premier birding spots, Pt. Pelee National Park, so no, we didn't do any shopping.)
The exchange rate "doesn't
The exchange rate "doesn't hold water"? We used to go for long weekends to Toronto; it was the cheap Chicago. Now we just go to Chicago! I remember distinctly in the last 7-8 years the rate was about 1.30 Canadian to 1 US; now I believe it's about even. That makes a big difference.
It *is* the exchange rate
Look at the data before 2000:
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/08/us-trave...
Exchange rate
I would agree the exchange rate is a key factor. The Canandian dollar was worth about 66 American cents back in 2000. In recent years it's gone higher, to a peak around $1.03, which is about a 50% increase. It's settled back a bit, but it is still relatively high in historical terms.
Border Crossing Takes Too Long
They keep changing the procedures, and recently there has been a lot of construction here on the Ambassador Bridge (Detroit-Windsor) approaches. We used to go to Windsor fairly often, but now it seems risky with regard to possible waiting time...
Probably the exchange rate (
Probably the exchange rate . . .
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/DEXCAUS_Max_630_378.png
and the overall state of the economy.
It's a differential expenditure of diminishing expendable income.
If it's the exchange rate
If it's the exchange rate won't there be a correspondent increase in the number of Canadians coming into the US?
The graph only shows
The graph only shows same-day visitors TO canada, not total border crossings. The article makes no mention of Canadian visits to the US.
http://nats.sct.gob.mx/nats/sys/tables.jsp?i=3&id=32
some raw data. look at southbound persons in passenger cars, CA-US. in 2001 it drops from 90m to 74m, but then it looks like it levels off around 62million. the same US-CA line is falling by a few million a year. interestingly, most years in that chart show a good chunk more traffic into the US than out.
Canadian dollar/peso
Anyone have any idea what happened there (Mexico) in the early 80's that seems to have briefly sent US visits to record levels?
My husband and I went to Mexico for a weeklong vacation back then, to Merida and Cancun. Total cost of airfare on Aeromexico and hotel for 7 nights: $210 each. Don't know how much that works out to in current dollars, but at the time it was dirt cheap. The peso was worthless at the time. A ferry crossing to Isla Mujeres from Cancun was the equivalent of 12 cents. Cancun at the time was still only three or four hotels and a dubious downtown.
On Canada, don't underestimate the impact of a strong Canadian dollar. and the pain of border crossings. If you're doing a day trip, why waste two hours minimum waiting for border patrols coming and going?
It is the border crossing.
It is the border crossing. Here in Washington they have built new large crossing palaces but it seems like they have only 1/4 to 1/2 of the lanes open at anytime so 1-2 hours waits on the Canadian side are common. We still go to Canada often but not for the day trip to Vancouver anymore. It is now long weekends and longer trips. Canada is still a good value and it is hard to beat the outdoor activities winter and summer in western Canada (BC & Alberta).
Day Trips to Canada
As a senior citizen I haven't needed Canadian drugs since Plan D went into effect. Though I used to get mine through the mail, border state folks used to drive into Canada for their scripts.
Charts
Kevin, you are such a good charts guy, I wanted to make sure you knew about this site I saw mentioned in a Facebook post: http://www.demandside.net/
Weenies
I hear Canada is full of them and they're starting to infiltrate.
1980=gas prices?
I can't see how drinking laws would account for such a short spike in 1980ish. Wasn't there a gas crisis? I would have been about 5, and vaguely remember going from Buffalo to Fort Erie just for gas.
overall, the numbers seem low. 550k visitors in June is <20k per day? I would have though ~10k from Buffalo or Detroit visit just for work?
niagara falls gets loads of same day US tourists. Wouldn't that be more sensitive to the overall economy than to the exchange rate? If someone is going to bother going to the falls for vacation, they probably wouldn't let the exchange rate stop them from crossing for a better view.
I have a passport, and have taken it with me on any same-day visit since 9/11. Never had a problem myself, except for the occasional long wait, and neither have any famiily members or close friends. (My parents probably go over at least 20 times per year). I think people are put off more by anecdotal horror stories, and except for the new passport burden, it's really not so awful.
Yeah, it's just an anecdote,
tagged as:- result
Yeah, it's just an anecdote, but for me, I won't do a casual border crossing anymore (i.e. something that isn't required for business), due to the increased hassle in coming back and the need to bring my passport, and the exchange rate is icing on the cake.
I'll be the one to say it...
Maybe it's because while Canada is a beautiful country with lots of great ideas, there is a festering anti-Americanism that belies their lovely (largely false) image for politeness. If you don't believe me, spend a few hours listening to Canadian talk radio, watch a Canadian newscast, or just chat with a few Canadians. After a very short time you'll notice that they are singularly obsessed with Americans and not in a very nice way.
And as for the politeness...put this to the test by trying to get on the SkyTrain in Vancouver at any time of day with a stroller.
I guess I must be an ugly, bad American for saying this.
It's because the Canadians
It's because the Canadians ran out of toilets.
>And as for the
>And as for the politeness...put this to the test by trying to get on the SkyTrain in Vancouver at any time of day with a stroller.
You're confusing polite with friendly. Vancouver is not really a friendly place, each person is in their own bubble. For another test, try actually talking to a stranger on the skytrain. The maritime provinces, in contrast, are very friendly. Lots of variation, just like there is between states.
>singularly obsessed with Americans...
That may be your perception, but from the other perspective - imagine if Oregon were next door to Texas, Texas had 10x the population, and Texas did its typical thing while barely aware that Oregon existed or felt any impacts. How would your typical Portland resident talk about that?
An example is the current healthcare debate in the states, one result of that is that our highly valued and popular socialized medicare system has come to be seen as an existential threat to right wing americans due to its very success. The attacks on our system's rep are bleeding across the border, and it rankles.
Re cross-border visits, it's a great big pain now, in both directions. There's a strong guilty-until-proven-innocent feel about it. The scare stories are unfortunately more than just anecdotal.
Even in the states on recent
Even in the states on recent business trips I've had bad security experiences. Nothing like terrorism, of course, but more like crabby workers and long lines and long delays. I think people are getting tired of the security warnings and the inconvenience of it all, and that is passed along to the security workers and everybody is a little more crabby. With the crappy economy flights are packed and people are frazzled and delays at the airport just ratchet up the aggravation.
This last time I had to walk quickly and I got sweaty in the heat and humidity and I got a little paranoid about looking suspicious. I had nothing to hide but any delay would have made me miss my flight and I was thinking 'Great, now I look guilty and I'm just hot and tired and angry about being late."
Tripp
It's because the traffic has
It's because the traffic has become terrible, partly due to border restrictions, and also because the volume of truck traffic is up, which makes it harder to just pop over for dinner.
Border crossings are by far
Border crossings are by far the main culprit here. As recently as 2001, a cross-border visit to Windsor or the Canada side of Niagara Falls could be a spur-of-the-moment lark, something you'd do after a Tiger night game, or on a weeknight in Buffalo. Since 9/11, the prolonged waits to get through customs, particulary the Canada-to-U.S. crossing, are like visiting an Iron Curtain country in the '50s. The passport law was the final icing on the cake. A jaunt to Maple Leaf Land nowadays is a friggin' project. Worth it, but no longer a casual thing. Sure, I blame al-Qaida first and foremost, but a substantial minority of the blame goes to a customs policy that panders to xenophobes. Meanwhile, it's killing business in the border cities.