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Non-Shocking Iran News
I'm just catching up on the news this morning, but apparently Iran is building a second nuclear enrichment facility:
White House officials said Western intelligence agencies have known about the facility for several years and believe that Iran acknowledged its existence Monday in an attempt to head off intense criticism that they knew was coming.
"We believe that the Iranians learned that the secrecy of the facility had been compromised," a senior White House official said Friday morning. "We've been aware of this facility for several years, building up a case so that we had very strong evidence."
Officials from the United States, France and Britain rushed to brief the IAEA in Vienna on Thursday on what they knew about the facility. U.S. officials said that detailed briefing was provided in an attempt to spark an immediate investigation by the international organization.
I don't have much to say about this except to note that all our previous intelligence estimates about Iran's capabilities obviously took this second plant into account, so presumably this doesn't change our forecasts about how far away they are from enriching enough material to build a bomb.
Hard to say exactly what's next. Hillary Clinton noted dryly today that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent statements "illustrate attitudes and approaches that are really at variance with almost universal principles and understanding of historical reality." You can say that again. He certainly seems to be doing everything he can to unite the world against him. Quite a feat.
Yawn
I'm sure the Iranians are quaking in their boots. "No noes, the U.S. outed our secret facility to the world!"
The Iranians know the UN is worthless and without votes from Russia and China, nothing will be done. Good luck getting both Russia and China on board. And the Iranians know that the U.S. has all but taken any military strikes off the table.
Only Israel showed any desire to take out this facility and from what can be read from open sources, the U.S. has refused to let Israel take it out. Of course, without the Israelis, Saddam Hussein would have probably gotten his hands on his own nuclear weapons.
And without the Israelis this time, I'm sure the Iranians will get their hands on their own while the U.S. and UN dawdle, bluster and waste time.
Iran is acting LEGALLY
tagged as:- solution
FACT: Under the terms of Iran's safeguards agreement with the IAEA, Iran is only required to inform the IAEA of the existence of a nuclear facility 180-days prior to the introduction of nuclear material into the facility. In other words, Iran may be perfectly within its right NOT to have declared the facility earlier. See http://tinyurl.com/ycenhgd
Always amusing that Iran would have had the bomb years ago..
...If they hadn't overthrown the Shah. (Hint to revolutionaries: wait until the bomb is created then overthrown the government)
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Iran
This just doesn't surprise me. If I were the Iranians, with both the US and especially Israel breathing down my neck, I'd be placing everything inside a mountain too. In fact, after seeing North Korea's experience, I'd be doing my damndest to build some nukes ASAP as well.
Really?
"except to note that all our previous intelligence estimates about Iran's capabilties obviously took this second plant into account"
This makes no sense. Our last intelligence estimate said that the US government believed that Iran did not have any active nuclear weapon program AT ALL as of mid-2007.
The Intelligence Community simply lied in their 2007 NIE. They KNEW that Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and they put out an NIE that said that Iran didn't.
The NIE is still valid
tagged as:- solution
There's no contradiction with the NIE. The most recent Iranian disclosre of plans to build pilot uranium enrichment plan does not prove anything about "nuclear weapons" either. Iran is declaring the site to the IAEA, exactly as it is supposed to do, and once it becomes operational, it will be monitored by the IAEA, exactly as is supposed to be.
Wrong
"The most recent Iranian disclosre of plans to build pilot uranium enrichment plan does not prove anything about 'nuclear weapons' either."
The only problem with your response is that the NIE stated that the intelligence community SPECIFICALLY included covert enrichment-related work in the definition of "nuclear weapons program" that the NIE stated was not ongoing. Here's what the NIE says in footnote 1 under "Key Judgements":
"For the purposes of this Estimate, by “nuclear weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work"
So the NIE specifically addresses your point - the NIE says that the intelligence community believed in 2007 that Iran had not begun any covert enrichment-related work. We now know that this was simply a lie - the intelligence community DID in fact know that Iran had ongoing enrichment-related work. Given what the NIE actually says, your reponse is simply incorrect.
No "covert" facility
There has been no "covert enrichment" work in this facility, which is still under construction and has been declared to the IAEA so it can't be "covert". The IAEA will soon go there and see it, and once it becomes operational, it will be unde IAEA safeguards.
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Rope-a-dope
Why do I get the feeling that Ahmadinejad is attempting to sucker us into a third front in what is becoming a general war in the Middle East?
What better way to defeat the Great Satan than to get the Great Satan to defeat itself?
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Ahmadinejad unpopular
Yes, but when Bush was competing with him, Bush was MORE unpopular
around the world.
It's a funny world.
Bush was the sane one in his administration - he kept Cheney in line.
I seem to be the only one willing to give him credit for that.
The Lack of Concern is Logical
The lack of concern here, that is. Nevermind that the President and our allies seem to think this second plant is a first order problem. Apologists for Iran will still be blaming Israel after Iran drops the first nuke on that country, since it will be a prima facie assumption that Israel deserves such chastisement. For truly, the need to blame the US (particularly Republicans) and our allies for Iranian intransigence is what is important, even over any eventual loss of life.
Since when?
What the heck are you talking about? I know of exactly no one who holds the views you described.
First-Order Problem?
Then why didn't the US nor any of its allies who were aware of the program tell the IAEA about it??? Isn't there some obligation for intelligence about 'covert' enrichment programs, if discovered, to be reported to the globe's official nuclear watchdog agency? According to an article in the NYT that I just finished reading, the US wanted to keep this info under wraps to use as leverage against Iran and continuing sanctions. It seems to me that if the site were considered an enormous threat, then the IAEA should have been informed ASAP. But we know the US doesn't like the IAEA in general and its habit of dealing in fact rather than hyperbole.
If the US had any evidence
If the US had any evidence that Iran was violating the NPT, it was OBLIGATED to report the matter to the IAEA Board of Governors, and the IAEA could then legally demand a "special inspection". The US did not do this, for obvious reasons.
Did you say the same thing
Did you say the same thing about the war on Iraq? Bet you did.
so much for the NIE, huh?
So our intelligence agencies lied to the president, to congress, and to the american public, when they said Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. The goals of our foreign policy, as seen by our intelligence guys and by the state department, seem incomprehensible. Do they actually want Iran to have nukes?
Good Comment
Moon of A wrote a good comment in response to an article in Foreign Policy about the newly divulged Iranian enrichment facility.
"A smart move by Iran.
1. Under the NPT obligations Iran signed it has to announce nuclear facilities to the IAEA only 6 month before introducing nuclear material to such a facility. The alleged "secrecy" is thereby a non issue as the facility is not yet in use and was announced to the IAEA on Monday.
2. The NYT says it is a small site for only 3,000 centrifuges. Such a site does NOT make sense to be used as a secondary for the big 50,000 centrifuges (planned end state) site in Natanz.
3. Ahmedinejad asked yesterday (Newsweek interview) for U.S. supply for the Tehran research reactor which was launched with U.S. help in 1968. That 5 MW reactor has medical and scientific use. It runs with medium enriched Uranium - i.e. 18-20% enrichment - and is under IAEA control.
4. Iran can not make, without some serious re-engineering, such fuel in Natanz.
5. An extra 3,000 centrifuge site makes perfect sense to enrich especially for the Tehran research reactor.
6. Now Iran can say: "Either sell us fuel for the research reactor or we, unfortunately, will have to make that fuel ourselves at the new site."
Clever chessplayers ... and a good starting point for serious negotiations. "
PS
So which is it??? A 3,000 centrifuge site, on the small side, or the "very large" facility that Obama says is too big for ordinary enrichment purposes. I'm willing to bet that the NYT has it right and Obama, alas, is being less than 'transparent.'
a two tier disciplinary system
Several years ago in the bedroom community of Gilbert a gang called the Devil Dogs was investigated and several of its members were tried and convicted. The investigation revealed a two tier disciplinary system in the school district. Children of elite Mormons who were members of the gang were treated very leniently for their transgressions, while African American and Hispanic students were treated very strictly for similar misbehavior. Non-White students were suspended or expelled and the Devil Dog youths were verbally admonished, at least until their violent crimes and drug dealing could not longer be ignored. The treatment of Iran by the capitalist world order somehow resembles the treatment of the minority youths in the Gilbert School District.
Oh, Please...
In response to my only slightly exaggerated post about the lack of concern over this "non-shocking new," Douglas MaClean wrote:
"What the heck are you talking about? I know of exactly no one who holds the views you described."
My hyperbole was in response to Mr. Drum's all-too-sanguine reaction to the announcement about this new site. Recall Mr. Drum's enthusiastic attention to the 2007 NIE holding that Iran had stopped their weapons program in 2003. He repeatedly trumpeted it as "proof" that all previous and subsequent statements of warning from the Bush Administration were either crazy or intentional warmongering. He was quite gleeful about it, all in good partisan fun, of course. At the time, I asked in this forum what the reaction would be to news that the Iranians had started up their program again.
Now this comes along and Mr. Drum is frankly unsurprised that the 2007 NIE was wrong, while other posters here claim everybody knew about it all along.
So, I guess we know. Everything gets twisted to fit the narrative. Any threat that Iran might pose to peace is quite secondary to how the news can be used for partisan purposes.
second that
As a long-time reader of Kevin Drum's blog, I remember his enthusiasm over the 2007 NIE. His "unsuprise" at the "non-shocking Iran news" is somewhat shocking to me. Maybe not so much that Iran has a second (and maybe 3rd, 4th...) enrichment facility - after all, everybody, probably including Mr. Drum, suspected as much, NIE or not. But the open admission that US intelligence services knew about it for years, and lied about it in the NIE anyway - shouldn't that trigger Mr. Drum's ire over politization of policy? Or is his ire only triggered when the other side does it?
Again, Iran's second as
Again, Iran's second as yet-unbuilt and non-operational enrichment plant is not contrary to the NIE. Those who want a war with Iran were deeply disappointed by the NIE's conclusion that there was no weapons program in Iran and have been using every pretext in the meantime to try to discredit it. However, the unassailable fact remains that Iran is abiding by its obligations by reporting the existence of this facility a full 12 months before it was legally obliged to do, and there's ZERO evidence of a weapons program in Iran.
No Weapons Program?
"and there's ZERO evidence of a weapons program in Iran."
So far as is known publicly. Weaponization (building the warhead) is always the last part of the process, anyway. Weapon design doesn't require a facility, it simply needs computer power and the necessary software.
Besides, open knowledge of our national intelligence on the subject is now fully two years old. The leak of the 2007 NIE serves its purpose - to forestall any action. It's unlikely that we'll see any contrary NIE leaked, because those who believe it will not want to prevent action, if needed.
But then again, the Bush Administration is gone, so there's no need to pay attention to any of this, is there?
No action is required as a
No action is required as a response to Iranian atomic aspirations, especially by the US, which has interfered enough in Iran's domestic politics. Action is required to stop the brutal repression of the Palestinians by Israel, but military idolaters would rather address threats that do not exist. They are like cops that go after crack whores instead of violent criminals, avoiding hard work for easy scores.