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Election Prediction Thread
So who's going to win today? Leave your guesses in comments. The warm glow of being right is your reward if, in fact, you turn out to be right.
I haven't blogged much about any of this because none of it has seemed very interesting up until the last minute soap opera in the NY-23 race. Even by the standards of off-year elections this is a pretty small one, and though the British press routinely projects the future course of the empire from the results of a single by-election in West Bromwich, we have a hard time pulling off quite the same level of breathless credulity here. There's just too much obviously local spin to all these races. Still, I admit that I'll be impressed if Jon Corzine manages to pull out a come-from-behind victory by insinuating that his opponent is fat.
GOP sweeps gov races,
GOP sweeps gov races, conservative wins NY-23.
Corzine hangs on in NJ,
Corzine hangs on in NJ, Conservative wins NY-23, gays get married in Maine (the outcome of the rest of the races are obvious enough)
Obvious as hell
Oh yeah, Bloomberg wins. Bill Thompson patted me on the back last month at the Atlantic Antic street fair, but I don't think my vote is enough to get him over the edge.
Well, YOU might not use these races...
to predict the course of the Obama administration, but the political pundits in the MSM certainly are! I realise they have to "fill" 24/7 news cycles, but it's getting quite maddening to see that Obama's future will be told by these off-year elections.
VA- McDonnell will win big. Deeds has run a lousy campaign. Palin will claim that it is HER intrusion into the campaign by robo-calls that turned the tide of victory to McDonnell.
NJ - Christie will win, sorta big. Goldman Sachs is too big a hurdle for Corzine to overcome in these days.
NY-23 - That scary looking fellow will win over the Democrat in a district that has voted Republican since the Civil War. Palin will also claim victory.
And none of this will mean anything. I think the Dems will hold on the both houses next year.
Oh, and I HOPE...
teh gays get married in Maine.
Hoffmann loses in NY-23
A third-party label is a drag even in a two-horse race; the habitual, kneejerk partyline voters don't know what to do, so they stay home. These partisans are important part of either party's base, and the Reps need all of them today.
The hard right needs a low turnout to magnify its numbers; hard to believe they'll get that under the white-hot glare of publicity.
The candidate nearer the center usually wins.
Virginia is a goner.
NJ, who the hell knows? In a race this close, machinery should matter, but Corzine may have squeezed out all there is. He won big in the early voting, which is a sign of superior organization. I pick Corzine, but I'm not sure how clear-eyed I am about that one.
Gay rights in Maine. I'd give it the edge, not knowing doodly about the quality of the campaigns. Again, I may be predicting with my heart; I want the country to be a helluva lot more liberal than it is.
Virginia
Since 1977 Virginia has elected governors of the party not in the White House. So, electing a Republican governor won't be a rebuke to the Democratic president any more than electing Mark Warner and Tim Kaine was a rebuke to Dubya. We're just a bunch of contrary people apparently.
New Jersey -- Christie New
New Jersey -- Christie
New York City -- Bloomberg
NY-23 -- Hoffman
Virginia -- McDonnell
Maine -- Gay marriage loses
Washington -- Gay marriage wins
NY 23rd - Hoffman Maine -
NY 23rd - Hoffman
Maine - Gay Marriage Wins (by 3 pts max - youth vote), medical marijuana loses
NYC - Bloomberg
Virginia - McDonnell
NJ - Corzine
You can trust the results of these elections
ONLY if there is a paper trail for electronic voting machines or other machines. Stuffing the electronic ballot box is morally and technically possible for the makers of this political theater.
Perhaps someone knows what sorts of machines are used in NY-23, New Jersey, and Virginia.
VA Voting Machines
In Virginia, voting machines vary from county to county. Fairfax County is moving away from the electronic ones to optically scanned paper ballots, though they still have a few of the electronic ones in use.
Virginia is indeed contrary,
Virginia is indeed contrary, and will go to the Republicans. And while it is fun to tie the win to a repudiation of the presidency, it really isn't. For instance, I'm a Dem, and it was fun to win in 2001, even when Bush's poll numbers were really high after 9/11. But it wasn't really about Bush, no matter how much we enjoying pretending (especially to Republicans) that it was. This year, it's our turn to take the punches, not give them out.
Best thing about VA? There's ALWAYS a big election the following year!
Early morning in NJ
Went to local polling station in Southern NJ at 7:15 AM or so...Got first parking spot right next to the door. In '08, at same time, I was parked in a field down the block. Not a good sign for Corzine. However, although Christie seemed to have it in a walk a couple of months ago and his Failure ad is pretty effective, Corzine has painted him as a failure from the Bush Admin (appointed during the politicization of the Justice Dept) and all he has offered up are slogans (cut taxes).
I gotta go with Corzine in a squeaker wiht the wingnuts looking for voter fraud because they saw a black man handing out campaign literature somewhere...that has already started. Obama is still pretty popular here and he came here a couple of times.
insinuating?
tagged as:- solution
"Insinuating" is hardly the right word -- it implies that Christie isn't fat. Dude's huge. It shouldn't cost him votes, but Christie's girth has pretty clearly gone from Insinuated to Verified.
McDonnell is going to win...
...and Virginia will suffer four years of pestilence and plague.
...
In my community, I get to choose between pro-business anti-union anti-establishment newbies with no political support who are throwing claims which are demonstrably untrue - but with environmental positions I support; or the pro-business pro-development establishment which has political support I favor good successful ties with the unions, and a huge downtown project which has collapsed atop them despite doing a really needed redesign (that's spent millions of dollars) after the business community failed on its promises.
Ugh.
HK
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