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Waiting for Obama
Politico reports on the timeline for healthcare reform:
Democrats have blown so many deadlines for getting health reform done this year that insiders are increasingly skeptical they can finish by year’s end — and some even suggest the effort might slip to a new deadline, before the State of the Union address.
....In the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid is still wrangling with his moderate members to corral 60 votes just to get the debate started. And on Monday, Reid sent a letter to Republicans acknowledging that he is waiting on the Congressional Budget Office’s cost estimates and analysis to finish drafting a bill....
Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad said he spoke with CBO Director Doug Elmendorf last week and that it sounded like “it would be quite a while” before the estimates were ready. The news makes a Christmas completion “a challenge,” Conrad said.
Regular reader RPH emails in response:
Was talking to some of the local Democratic Party organizers in Lancaster County, Virginia, aka my parents, and the feedback they hear is that Obama is quickly coming to be viewed as a ditherer, unable to timely make decisions or close the deal. That he doesn't seem strong enough to push key programs through, etc. This is the backdrop for why so many Ds in Va this year seem apathetic about voting. Lancaster is also fairly conservative so I think many Ds are just parroting what their R friends keep spouting, I'm sure, with increasing volume, with the reality being the economy which is devastating that area of Virginia. For what it's worth, everyone is extremely frustrated by the Ds poor showing in Va this year.
But still.
O needs to get some big things under his belt and soon. If he can get Afghanistan off his plate, that might buy him some time on Health Care without running the risk of a dangerous loss of momentum. But right now, every thing seems stuck in an endless loop. Part of this is the media cycle of course, but that's unfortunately the reality of governing now — where the steady perception of action, decisiveness and competence are key.
Is RPH right? Is this soon to become the new conventional wisdom? I certainly don't blame Obama for healthcare, where his leverage to kick the Senate into action is limited, but even I'm getting a little antsy about Afghanistan. Yeah, I want him to get it right, but there's a limit to how long this stuff can stay simmering on the cooktop.
Anyway, I'm only passing this along, not really endorsing any of it. Just some raw data to chew over.
Data?
The plural of anecdote is not data.
A Big Nothingburger
Obama's calm demeanor is often misinterpreted by some as inaction or laziness. Perhaps if he spent some time back at the ranch clearing brush he would look more "busy".
I might not be happy about Obama's willingness to bend over backwards in the pursuit of "bipartisanship", but I do know that our government does its best work when it moves slowly.
Deadline
I guess this is kind of a "damned if you don't," "damned if you do" type of situation--if you do set a hard deadline, people say you're rushing it through. If you don't, then you're dithering.
Still, it seems to me that the only relevant deadline here is whenever people start campaigning for the 2010 mid-terms. THAT's clearly what's on everybody's mind--can we get this out of the way and negate it as a campaign issue, and not risk letting it fall until 2011, when Democrats will likely not have as strong a hand?
Obama doesn't dither on civil rights
I only wish he was more of a ditherer on asserting bullshit "national security" privileges when protecting war criminals like Bush, Cheney, Ashcroft, Gonzales, Rumsfeld, Condi Rice,...
Dithering or holding back?
I'll take the optimistic side on this q. and say that as a former senator, Obama knows how difficult the senate can be as long as the filibuster is in place. Obama is holding back on some decisions until Presidents Snowe, Baucus, Conrad, Lieberman, Bayh and Landrieu allow the Senate to forward a health care bill to the conference committee. I have no proof this is the case . . . but it would be irresponsible not to speculate!
No, just anecdote.
I think the "dithering" idea is out there. I think it's unfair and Obama has done a lot, it's just that much of it has been the quiet, unrewarding work of mitigating harm.
But I have friends in Democratic politics who think Obama and the Dems really, really need to get healthcare done soon. The intra-party squabbling only shows Dems at their worst, and reinforces the GOP stereotype of Democrats as undisciplined, ineffective bickerers who can't ever get a job done. In their minds the party needs a big, positive achievement for 2009, and needs to clear the decks for the 2010 elections, which will be all about the economy and not about arcane variants on the public option.
Personally, I think it's worth taking some time over something that will affect 15% of the economy. But it would bug me if the healthcare debate went past Christmas. Congress will have been batting around healthcare reform for almost a year, and these proposals have been floating around for much longer than that. Public health programs are always works in progress; every country constantly adjusts theirs and we won't be any different. So pull the damn trigger already, get an acceptable compromise together and fix what's broken later.
But if a popular Democratic president presiding over a Democratic Congress and Democratic Senate can't get his own party to agree on one of its cornerstone initiatives, then yeah, that would be a failure of leadership.
yes, but
"... but even I'm getting a little antsy about Afghanistan. Yeah, I want him to get it right, but there's a limit to how long this stuff can stay simmering on the cooktop."
I share your antsiness, but the election fraud gummed up the works considerably. Should they have expected it? Maybe. Regardless, you can't really commit to anything until that's been resolved. Now that it has been, he's got as good a reason as any to commit to getting out. Here's hoping.
Yes, the little question of
Yes, the little question of whether the Afghans had a legit govt might have slowed down the planning process a little, don't you think?
I do blame Obama, however, for setting unrealistic deadlines on healthcare given the complexity of the issue. It might have been necessary to move the process along, but people notice when you miss a deadline.
superfreaks
The question, then, might be have to do with why Obama placed so much importance, and waited so long, on the work of the Finance Committee. They are to dithering what Rick James is to line crossing: habitual, serial, recidivist ditherers.
Hopefully that's the only
Hopefully that's the only time I'll see Max Baucus compared to Rick James.
There is no right path in
There is no right path in Afghanistan. We're mired in quag.
Somebody is surprised that the government of the world's opium supplier is corrupt? Please. If you want to leave at least use a decent excuse, like the Taliban isn't really that bad, or we should renege on our commitments for financial reasons.
The right path is the path
The right path is the path home. I hope Joe Biden continues to be a bee in Obama's bonnet on this one.
Yes, he's dithering. If he
Yes, he's dithering. If he doesn't get something done well before next November, the D's lose many many seats in the house, if he does the D's may gain seats (!?). Nothing done - Conservative D's like Landrieu lose. Something done - Conservative D's- even if they fight tooth and nail against change - will win. All about base motivation. Dithering = doom. Conyers radio comment about Obama listening to the wrong people was right on the money.
Dithering? I thought we were moving too fast
Oh, sorry, that was last week's meme.
Come next election, the Democrats are going to be able to say they:
- Got us out of Iraq.
- Saved the US auto industry.
- Saved the US banking industry.
- Staved off the next Great Depression.
- Passed comprehensive health care reform, an achievement 60 years in the making.
... plus whatever gets passed next year.
Now you can quibble that they really don't deserve all the credit for what's above, but well, these are politicians who always overstate their accomplishments.
To my point, though: That's a lot of accomplishments for a ditherer.
Obama's economic stimulus
Obama's economic stimulus efforts were supposedly not helping at all (a bad thing - idiot!) until they were (also a bad thing - socialism!).
The health care proposals out right now don't seem particularly helpful. I don't see a public option making any dent in affordability, and thus it can't help folks who are unable to afford insurance. And an insurance mandate is simply a give-away to insurance companies. There's no way around that.
afghanistan
While I don't like the notion of our President 'dithering' over military matters of this sort, I can't really see it any other way.
Granted, a lot of people are saying that Bush was asked for more troops in summer 2008 but passed it on to his successor. That's dithering and politicizing military matters, certainly.
But it's also an indication that Obama has now had 18months to be considering the issue. It's not like he just got a brand new unexpected request for troops a couple of weeks ago.
And that is where my frustration lies.
I think Obama's done some good already. But he needs to make a decision about Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, most options are politically unfavorable.
Filibuster
They are really captive to this notion that we can run the country with a Senate that requires a routine 60-vote supermajority. Well, we can't. The filibuster was never intended to apply to all votes, and making it so easy to execute is an invitation for the GOP to make mischief. If they really want to accomplish anything, they need to either drop the filibuster entirely or at least make it onerous to execute one.
Health care is not going to pass unless they do it through reconciliation - Holy Joe will see to that. This was all completely predictable.
Obama Administration
Seriously, it's hard to know what people thought would happen. Contrary to hopeful fantasies of a handful, he does not walk on water, but he is, as Rev Sharpton said, the strongest swimmer in politics. No one knows what is coming but what I do believe is that I can trust the President's judgement. That there won't be any rash egoic responses that land us in another war. He's hasn't even had a year: thank God he contemplates... I heard the incomprehensibly limited Elizabeth Hasselbeck insist today that he has to commit those 40K troops because McChrystal says so: the reality is, we don't have 40K troops to commit. We can't sufficiently arm those we have. The choice is among the lesser of evils. So who appointed these people pundits when they've never had such a horrible decision to make. I mean, talk about costing lives on every front: war, healthcare, emergency benefits... Some of us are dying out here because of previous administration's rash choices. Give Obama some more time; being thoughtful does make him weak. Actually weighing resources against possible outcomes is not dithering. Pulling out because we cannot support the mission is not defeat. Give the guy a chance.
Hasselbeck is of military
Hasselbeck is of military age. That coward should join the Afghan military if she wants a fight.
Tactics
We're the closest we've ever been on healthcare, a movement that's taken a the better part of a century to get this far. We're actually paying attention to Afghanistan, a problem with such a wide range of advice from experts that any decision will be criticized and any decision could be the right one..
I'm not inclined yet to question his tactics.
a ditherer.... well, that's
a ditherer.... well, that's quite a change from last month's mantra where he was 'shoving health care reform down out throats'.
and another thing ...
Please add his complete retreat in front of the thundering herds of Tel Aviv.
Just because Americans are
Just because Americans are becoming impatient with low Afghan children body counts does not mean the president should act to fulfill their blood lust. Unless the president's decision is to leave Afghanistan, he should dither until he resigns from office or turns himself in to the international courts.
Obama, The Republicans and VA
I wouldn't read too much into yesterday's election victories in VA.
1) Virginia is still a Republican stronghold - just maybe not as much as it used to be.
2) Last year black voting was at historic levels, which accrues to Democrats. That dynamic wasn't present this year.
3) We had 8 years of Democratic Governors, both of which had to cut rather than boost programs. Warner came in after 9/11 and the debacle that was Jim Gilmore. Tim Kaine inherited a reasonably good economy but the last half of his Governorship has seen the worst recession in ...yada yada, yada.
4) RE: above, the economy is lousy.
George Allen had the benefit of a good economy (thanks Mr. Clinton) and proceeded to go on a prison building - and filling - binge. A hugely expensive legacy a one term only Governor (by law) has to pass along. Jim Gilmore cut a local tax (personal property on cars) by paying the localities the difference out of state general fund revenues. This was predicted to be - and turned out - an unmitigated budget disaster. Both the Democrats returned VA to fiscal sanity (earning top management marks from a variety of independent sources).
McDonnell inherits all this plus the recession. The difference is he is ideologically hamstrung to make good fiscal decisions. The state budget is down to marrow - let alone bone. Yet it is likely McDonnell will cut programs - and possibly taxes - even further. Even Republicans like services - they just want "good" for "nothing." So when McDonnell gives them "good for nothing" don't be surprised if the Democrats do a little better in coming elections.
Bob
Dithering
The man has been president for less than a year. He inherited two botched wars and an economy on the verge of collapse. He has an opposition party with no interest in governing, only in assuring that he fails, and a Democratic party filled with DINOS who are so owned by corporate America they don't burp without their masters' permission. Despite that, Obama has managed to push through a crucial stimulus bill, rescue the auto and housing industries, roll back some of the worst Bush policies (like horrendous oil and gas leases) and restore America's reputation in the world. No, he hasn't walked on water yet nor managed to push through a health care bill sixty years in the making -- but GIVE THE MAN A BREAK, IT'S BEEN LESS THAN A YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!