LA-SF Reality Check

| Sun Feb. 28, 2010 2:57 AM EST

Well, that didn't take long:

Despite a new $2.25-billion infusion of federal economic stimulus funding, there are intensifying concerns — even among some high-speed rail supporters — that California's proposed bullet train may not deliver on the financial and ridership promises made to win voter backing in 2008.

....New inflation-adjusted construction figures show that outlays needed to build the first 520-mile phase of the system have climbed more than 25%, from $33.6 billion to $42.6 billion....Under the new scenario, one-way fares between L.A. and San Francisco rise from $55 to $105, closer to the cost of an airline ticket. The change shows healthier surplus revenue, which may appeal to private investors. But estimated ridership falls by about one-third, to about 40 million annual boarders in 2030.

So in a mere two years, projected ticket prices have gone up 90%, ridership has gone down 30%,1 and construction costs have increased 25%. There's nothing yet about increasing the projected travel time from its original, very optimistic, 2.5 hours, but I'm sure that's coming too. Who could have predicted?

1Actually, my recollection is that the original studies were based on a fantasy ridership of 100 million. So ridership projections are actually down 60%.

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