Wow. Our experiment is off to a great start—let's see if we can finish it off sooner than expected.
The military has finally released its long-awaited study on the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell, and the results are unsurprising: most service members don't think repeal would be a problem:
The Pentagon has concluded that allowing gay men and women to serve openly in the United States armed forces presents a low risk to the military’s effectiveness, even at a time of war, and that 70 percent of service members believe that the impact of repealing the “don’t ask, don’t tell” law would be either positive, mixed or of no consequence at all.
The full report is here, and an interesting table is below. It turns out that although 30% of respondents think that repealing DADT would affect their unit's ability to train well together (a number that shows up pretty consistently on every question about the effect of repeal), only 10% think it would affect their own readiness and only 20% think it would affect their ability to train well. In other words, there's pretty good reason to think that even the 30% number is overstated. It seems to include a fair number of people who are assuming that DADT repeal would have a negative effect on other people even though it wouldn't have a negative effect on them. My guess is that a lot of this is reaction to a small number of vocal traditionalists, which makes opposition to repeal seem like a bigger deal than it is.
Jeh Johnson, the Pentagon’s chief counsel, agrees, saying that surveys about personnel changes "tend to overestimate negative consequences, and underestimate the U.S. military’s ability to adapt and incorporate within its ranks the diversity that is reflective of American society at large." I suspect he's right. In the end, real opposition is probably more in the range of 10-20% than 30%, and even that will probably produce nothing more serious than occasional grumbling and discomfort for a year or two at most. There's really no further excuse for inaction. It's time for Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership to figure out a way to cut a deal and get repeal passed before Congress recesses.