In the Presidential Race, Nothing Much Has Changed in the Past Year


Just a quick note for everyone disturbed by basically everything that’s happened over the past month or so. It’s true that the polls have tightened a bit, but that’s not the real story. Here’s the latest from Pollster:

The real story is that we’ve had a Republican convention, a Democratic convention, and tons of news about email, foundations, pneumonia, Russia, bribery attempts, and more—and we’re pretty much at the same place we were three months ago. On June 1st, Clinton led by 5.5 points. Today she leads by 4.9 points.

Obviously this could change, and neither side can afford complacency. But the big picture is pretty simple: Trump has been stuck at a maximum of 40-42 percent for the entire past year. It appears that there’s a limit to how much support you can gin up with nothing but bluster and appeals to white resentment.