Readers who are extremely long in the tooth will remember a blogger named Steven Den Beste from back in the day. He was a gung-ho warblogger who wrote very long, very nerdy pieces about the urgent need to invade Iraq (with occasional forays into cell phone standards), so one day Daniel Davies decided that what we all needed was Shorter Steven Den Beste. Davies' version was usually a withering sentence or two.

Today, things have changed. I can think of all too many folks who could stand to cut their word count in half, but for now I'd settle for Shorter Glenn Greenwald. Yesterday he wrote this:

The Guardian’s Summary of Julian Assange’s Interview Went Viral and Was Completely False

According to Microsoft Word, the article clocks in at 2,645 words, so here's the nickel version. A few days ago Julian Assange gave an interview to Italian reporter Stefania Maurizi. (It is illustrated with the photo on the right, which I hope they don't mind me re-using since it makes me like Assange a little better than I usually do.) Here are the relevant sections:

Most of WikiLeaks' biggest revelations concern the US military-industrial complex....Why aren't human rights abuses producing the same effects in regimes like China or Russia, and what can be done to democratise information in those countries?

In Russia, there are many vibrant publications, online blogs, and Kremlin critics such as [Alexey] Navalny are part of that spectrum.....In Russia there are competitors to WikiLeaks, and no WikiLeaks staff speak Russian....WikiLeaks is a predominantly English-speaking organisation with a website predominantly in English. We have published more than 800,000 documents about or referencing Russia and president Putin, so we do have quite a bit of coverage, but the majority of our publications come from Western sources....The real determinant is how distant that culture is from English.

....What about Donald Trump?...What do you think he means?

Hillary Clinton's election would have been a consolidation of power in the existing ruling class of the United States. Donald Trump is not a DC insider, he is part of the wealthy ruling elite of the United States, and he is gathering around him a spectrum of other rich people and several idiosyncratic personalities. They do not by themselves form an existing structure, so it is a weak structure which is displacing and destabilising the pre-existing central power network within DC. It is a new patronage structure which will evolve rapidly, but at the moment its looseness means there are opportunities for change in the United States: change for the worse and change for the better.

The Guardian's piece, written by Ben Jacobs, made several claims: (1) Assange "long had a close relationship with the Putin regime," (2) Assange said there was no need for WikiLeaks to undertake a whistleblowing role in Russia "because of the open and competitive debate he claimed exists there," and (3) Assange gave "guarded praise" of Trump.

The first is unfounded, and the Guardian has now retracted it. The second is false as well. Whether you choose to believe him or not, what Assange said is that WikiLeaks isn't a local player in Russia and mostly appeals to English-speaking leakers. The third is hazier. Personally, I'd say Assange is wildly naive about Trump not representing an "existing power structure," and disingenuous in calling part of Trump's inner circle "idiosyncratic personalities." That said, "not a DC insider" plus "destabilising the pre-existing central power network within DC" plus "change for the worse and change for the better" could reasonably be described as "guarded praise." Those are all things that Assange pretty clearly views favorably.

This is a lot more than two sentences, but I'm not as witty as Dan Davies. In any case, I agree with Greenwald about two out of three of these things, and hopefully corrections will go as viral as the initial article. That's how things usually work in social media, right?

Abby Huntsman promised to "address" her baseless story about food stamp fraud on Fox & Friends today. So how did she do? Mediaite tells us:

Huntsman admitted the error the following day, reading a correction twice on-air: “We reported that back in 2016, $70 million were wasted on food stamp fraud. That was actually incorrect.”

“The latest information from 2009 to 2011 shows the fraud at 1.3%, which is approximately $853 million for each of those three years, and nationally food-stamp trafficking is on the decline. So sorry about that mistake,” she said.

"Food stamp trafficking is on the decline." I wonder how much of her audience understands that this means "food stamp fraud is on the decline"? Oh well. At least she mentioned it.

I have to say, though, that what I'm really curious about is where the original $70 million figure came from. Made up out of thin air? Somebody read the wrong column in a report? Or what? I literally can't think of what sort of data you could dig up that would lead to this number, even in error. I suppose we'll never know.

Here's another chart. I don't know why I did this one. I was looking at some other stuff, and then one thing led to another. But it seemed kind of interesting. Even after you account for ever-rising health care expenditures, personal income has been steadily rising for 60 years.

This does not show medians, so don't make too much of it. Especially over the past couple of decades, it's skewed by the massive income increases of the top 1 percent. A more interesting measure, I suppose, would be median disposable income after median out-of-pocket health care expenditures. Maybe I'll root around one of these days and see if I can find that.

Whenever you point out that inflation is pretty low these days, you can expect a flurry of responses along the lines of, "Have you seen the price of eggs lately?!?" As it happens, yes, I have. More to the point, the US government tracks food inflation, and it's really low right now. As in negative. Food bought in stores (as opposed to restaurant food) is 2.2 percent cheaper than it was a year ago. This means the average family is spending about $150 less on groceries than they did in 2015. Happy Holidays!

From the Wall Street Journal:

Not Everyone Wants to Shop on Amazon

[Chris] Outwater is among the 17% of U.S. primary household shoppers who say they never shop on Amazon, according to data from Kantar Retail ShopperScape. While the percentage has steadily declined over the past five years, roughly 22 million American households didn’t use the retailer this year.

Those Amazon holdouts tend to be older than U.S. shoppers overall, with an average age of 57 versus 49, respectively, according to Kantar, and they tend to earn less—$45,700 in annual income, compared with $62,800 among all shoppers. They are less likely to have or live with children.

Talk about burying the lede. Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but the news to me is that 83 percent of "primary household shoppers" shopped at Amazon at least once last year. Compare that to this from a June story in the Journal:

While total online spending comprised 7.8% of all retail purchases in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department, more than half the population, or about 190 million U.S. consumers, will shop online this year, according to Forrester.

This is roughly 80 percent of all US adults, which jibes pretty well with the Kantar number. Basically, about 80 percent of all US adults shop online at least a little, and every single one of them has shopped at Amazon once or more. In other words, among online shoppers, close to 100 percent have shopped at Amazon. Is there any other retailer on the planet who can claim anything close to that number?

A few days ago I wrote about an odd Fox News report which said that SNAP (food stamp) fraud was at an "all-time high" of $70 million. The odd part of this was not that Fox was lying about SNAP fraud being at an all-time high. What do you expect from Fox? The odd thing was that actual SNAP fraud clocks in at nearly a billion dollars. Why did Fox lowball it? I couldn't figure out where Fox got its number, and as near as I could tell the Department of Agriculture hadn't published anything about it more recently than 2011 anyway.

Today, the Washington Post's Erik Wemple does some shoe-leather reporting and makes a few phone calls:

The Agriculture Department is asking Fox News to correct a report from Tuesday morning’s edition of “Fox & Friends” alleging new heights for food-stamp fraud in the United States....“We are not quite sure where this came from,” a USDA spokesperson tells the Erik Wemple Blog. “We saw that there was a story on Breitbart. We have not issued a report on this recently. There is no new rate that we’ve published. So we’re not quite sure why they’re so interested in stirring this up.”

....A Fox News spokesperson indicates that this matter will be addressed on tomorrow’s program.

OK then. It sounds like someone at Fox just made this up, though I'm sure they'll put a more positive spin on it than that. I'm also sure they'll be eager to correct the fact that SNAP fraud is actually far higher than they suggested. But given all this, why did the Post's Philip Bump include the following graphic in his story about this on Wednesday?

It's fine to write about Fox's misinformation, but why was it credited to the Department of Agriculture? That's how Fox credited it, to be sure, but that credit shouldn't have been passed along without verifying it independently.

One final note: this story demonstrates the value of being numerate. The reason I first noticed it was because the $70 million figure was so obviously absurd. SNAP is a $70 billion program, and it's nuts to think that it could have a fraud rate that low. Mother Teresa's mission in Calcutta probably had a higher fraud rate than that. Anybody with even the smallest working knowledge of SNAP, normal fraud rates, and basic arithmetic should have heard alarm bells going off immediately.

But no one did. Nearly all of the response to the Fox report was either (a) mockery of their suggestion that SNAP should be ended, or (b) mockery of their belief that 0.1 percent was a high rate of fraud. Nobody really seemed to notice that it couldn't possibly be correct. More numeracy, please.

Today the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security released a joint report directly accusing the Russians of hacking into the servers of "a U.S. political party," including a spearphishing campaign "launched as recently as November 2016, just days after the U.S. election." I'm not quite sure why they're being so precious about naming the DNC, which has gotten several miles of press coverage, but the ways of intelligence organizations are mysterious:

This document provides technical details regarding the tools and infrastructure used by the Russian civilian and military intelligence Services (RIS) to compromise and exploit networks and endpoints associated with the U.S. election....This activity by RIS is part of an ongoing campaign of cyber-enabled operations directed at the U.S. government and its citizens.

The report doesn't actually say an awful lot about how they know this hacking comes from Russia, but it does include one bit of signature code to watch out for. We also learn about lots of funky code names for Russian hacking operations:

APT28, APT29, Agent.btz, BlackEnergy V3, BlackEnergy2 APT, CakeDuke, Carberp, CHOPSTICK, CloudDuke, CORESHELL, CosmicDuke, COZYBEAR, COZYCAR, COZYDUKE, CrouchingYeti, DIONIS, Dragonfly, Energetic Bear, EVILTOSS, Fancy Bear, GeminiDuke, GREY CLOUD, HammerDuke, HAMMERTOSS, Havex, MiniDionis, MiniDuke, OLDBAIT, OnionDuke, Operation Pawn Storm, PinchDuke, Powershell backdoor, Quedagh, Sandworm, SEADADDY, Seaduke, SEDKIT, SEDNIT, Skipper, Sofacy, SOURFACE, SYNful Knock, Tiny Baron, Tsar Team, twain_64.dll, VmUpgradeHelper.exe, Waterbug, X-Agent

So what are we going to do about this? Here's the New York Times:

The Obama administration struck back at Russia on Thursday for its efforts to influence the 2016 election, ejecting 35 Russian intelligence operatives from the United States and imposing sanctions on Russia’s two leading intelligence services.

The administration also sanctioned four top officers of one of those services, the military intelligence unit known as the G.R.U., which the White House believes ordered the attacks on the Democratic National Committee and other political organizations....In addition, the State Department announced the closing of two “recreational facilities” — one in New York, another in Maryland — that it said were used for Russian intelligence activities, although officials would not say whether they were specifically used in the election-related hacks.

This brings back memories, doesn't it? It's just like the Cold War, and Russia will no doubt expel 35 Americans in a few days. However, this also puts Donald Trump on the spot. Will he reverse the sanctions on GRU when he takes office? It's one thing to do nothing and hope everyone forgets about it, but it's quite another to actively reverse sanctions that are based on the conclusions of our own intelligence agencies. What are you gonna do, Donald?

Last year, several insurance companies abandoned Obamacare because they were losing money. This year, premiums have spiked 25 percent on the exchanges. As a result, Paul Ryan says insurance markets are "collapsing," and Republicans are promising to repeal Obamacare practically on Day 1 after Donald Trump takes office.

But a funny thing has happened on the way to the collapse: Obamacare is more popular than ever. Charles Gaba is the go-to guy for Obamacare enrollment data, and the simplified chart on the right is based on his more detailed versions here and here. Last year at this time, a little over 11 million people had signed up on the exchanges. This year, a little over 12 million have signed up. Here's what this means:

With premiums up 25 percent, a little arithmetic suggests that insurance company revenue from Obamacare will be more than a third higher this year than last year.

Time will tell what this means, but it doesn't look like a death spiral. The premium hikes are painful, but clearly people find health insurance worth it even at the higher price. What's more, about 85 percent of Obamacare customers qualify for federal subsidies, and for them premiums are up only slightly—and not even that much if they also shop around.

So: insurance companies will be in pretty good shape this year. A few people have seen sharp premium increases, but the vast majority haven't. Uncle Sam is picking up most of the tab. In other words, 2017 is shaping up to be the healthiest year on record for Obamacare.

Was there a huge crime wave in 2015? There are two main sources for crime rates in the United States. The FBI produces the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), which is based on reporting from police agencies. The Bureau of Justice Statistics produces the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which conducts surveys of ordinary Americans and asks if they've been a crime victim in the past year. Rick Nevin breaks down the numbers:

The 2015 NCVS property crime rate (household burglary, motor vehicle theft, and other theft) was down 6.3% from 2014...2015 UCR burglary rate...down 8.5%...UCR larceny-theft rate...down 2.5%...UCR property crime rate...down 3.4% from 2014....roughly consistent with the NCVS data showing the property crime rate falling 6.3% in 2015 to a record low.

The UCR violent crime rate (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) should be roughly consistent with the NCVS serious violent crime rate (sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault),1 but the UCR violent crime rate increased 3.0% in 2015 as the NCVS serious violent crime rate fell 11.7%....

OK, hold on. Everyone agrees that property crime is down, but the FBI says the reported violent crime rate increased 3 percent while the NCVS survey data says it decreased 11.7 percent? What's going on? The biggest components of the violent crime index are robbery and aggravated assault. Both the UCR and the NCVS agree closely about the robbery rate, so that means there must be some kind of discrepancy in the aggravated assault rate:

The 2015 UCR aggravated assault rate was up 3.8% from 2014....NCVS total aggravated assaults were down 25.2% in 2015, and NCVS aggravated assaults reported to police were down 20.7%.

Yikes! Long story short, Nevin shows that this divergence between UCR and NCVS has been increasing for the past decade. The culprit, apparently, is exactly the opposite of the frequent allegation that police departments understate serious crime in order to make themselves look better. "The fact that NCVS victims are reporting aggravated assaults far below UCR recorded aggravated assaults suggests that police have become far more expansive than crime victims are when it comes to defining aggravated assault, perhaps to protect against allegations that the police undercount serious violent crime."

Most likely, then, there's a longstanding issue of how aggravated assault is reported and categorized. Basically, police departments underreported it in the past and are now overreporting it. Aggravated assault probably decreased or held steady in 2015, which means the overall rate of violent crime was also either down or steady.

There was an increase in the murder rate last year, from 4.44 in 2014 to 4.88 in 2015 (per 100,000). This is a significant jump, and it was apparently fueled by an especially large jump in about a dozen big cities. This is cause for concern, especially since the murder rate usually correlates roughly with the overall violent crime rate. The divergence last year is unusual, and we don't yet know what explains it. It might just be a random spike, or it could suggest something worse.

But while murder gets the headlines, it's only one small component of the overall crime rate. Overall property crime was down last year and overall violent crime was probably down too. These are, by far, the crimes that actually affect most people. With the exception of a few pockets of increased homicide, America continues to get safer and safer.

1The NCVS numbers don't include homicide because you obviously can't survey murder victims. However, homicide is a tiny part of the overall violent crime rate, so that doesn't account for the difference between UCR and NCVS figures.

Politico reports on Donald Trump's search for a Secretary of Agriculture:

Trump met Wednesday with two Hispanic politicians at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach to discuss the possibility of taking on the agriculture post: Dr. Elsa Murano, a former U.S. agriculture undersecretary for food safety, who is Cuban-American, and Abel Maldonado, a Mexican-American who is a former California lieutenant governor and co-owner of Runway Vineyards.

I imagine Trump's interior monologue for his cabinet choices has gone something like this:

Lessee. Solid, silver-haired white guy for State. Check. Retired general for Defense. Check. Personal financial crony for Treasury. Check. What else? Teachers are all women, so Betsy is good for Education. Urban is code for black, so Ben will fit in at HUD. Lotta oil wells in Texas, so maybe a Texan for Energy. Perry can do it. Somebody exotic-looking for UN ambassador. Nikki really looks the part. Asians are bad drivers, maybe Elaine can get through to them at Transportation. Fill out the rest with a bunch of dull white guys. I'll let Pence take care of it. And Agriculture. Hmmm. Gotta be Hispanic, right? They're the ones who pick all the crops. But who?

If only I were just joking with this.