Kevin Drum

Iraqi Elections

| Sun Feb. 8, 2009 12:59 AM EST | Scheduled to publish Fri Feb. 6, 2009 1:37 PM EST

IRAQI ELECTIONS....Results from Iraq's provincial elections are finally in. The LA Times reports:

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has won a resounding victory in provincial elections across Iraq, cashing in on his strongman image while dealing a sharp defeat to outright religious parties, according to preliminary results released Thursday.

Candidates running under Maliki's Enforcement of Law slate won the most seats in nine of 14 contested provinces, including the Shiite Muslim power bases of Baghdad and Basra. /p>

Juan Cole offers a rather different take:

Although Nuri al-Maliki's Da'wa Party got over a third of the votes in Baghdad and Basra, they clearly did not achieve a commanding position, and its share in the more rural Shiite provinces was signifcantly less..

The big story here is that the Shiite religious parties (and yes, the Da'wa or Islamic Mission Party is among them) again swept the Shiite south. However, those Shiite parties that won out this time want a strong central government, not a Shiite mini-state.

....On the whole, I think these results are encouraging for Obama. The Sunni Arab ex-Baathist secular elites have reentered polities in the Sunni Arab areas. These election results put paid to the fantasies of Dick Cheney and John McCain that Sunni Arab Iraqis are pro-"al-Qaeda." Most of them would not even vote for a religious party, much less for a radical fundamentalist terrorist group. Cheney said that if the US left, al-Qaeda would take over Sunni Arab Iraq. That is highly unlikely given these election results.

I certainly wouldn't have guessed this a year or two ago, but Maliki really does seem to have consolidated his position throughout the country, something that's almost certainly good news for the U.S. If Obama really does want to get out of Iraq within 16 months (or 19 months or 23 months, depending on who you listen to), it's going to be a lot easier if the Maliki administration is stable and relatively secure. And while Iraq will still have friendly relations with Iran under Maliki, that would have been the case regardless and is probably no bad thing anyway. Overall, I'd say these results make a successful withdrawal from Iraq more likely than it was a week ago.

Advertise on MotherJones.com

Hilda Solis

| Sun Feb. 8, 2009 12:55 AM EST | Scheduled to publish Thu Feb. 5, 2009 7:23 PM EST

HILDA SOLIS....I see that Senate Republicans are continuing to throw up roadblocks in front of Hilda Solis, Obama's nominee for Labor Secretary. This is pretty odd. I mean, what's their beef? That she's pro-labor and pro-EFCA? That can hardly be a surprise, since Obama himself is pro-labor and pro-EFCA. That there's some kind of skeleton in her closet? Maybe, but the items they've dug up so far have been tissue thin. They can't possibly think her husband's tax liens are going to derail her nomination, can they? And the ARW stuff is even more ridiculous.

The whole thing is hard to fathom. But I guess it's yet another indication that of all the things that drive Republicans crackers, labor tops the list. Even more than taxes, they just go completely nuts when they're faced with the prospect of unions gaining a bit of power. The result is a temper tantrum over Solis even though they know perfectly well they can't stop her nomination.

Quote of the Day - 02.05.09

| Sun Feb. 8, 2009 12:53 AM EST | Scheduled to publish Thu Feb. 5, 2009 2:32 PM EST

QUOTE OF THE DAY....From Joe Klein, begging his fellow reporters not to make the same mistake he made 16 years ago:

In 1993, I did a pretty shabby job of covering Bill Clinton's economic plan. It was, in sum, a very good plan — it worked wonders for the economy — but I focused on the mishaps. (Clinton, for example, pulled the rug out from under House Democrats by offering a carbon tax, which they voted for...and then the President removed it from the bill.) Clinton couldn't get any Republican votes for the package. A disaster! He had trouble getting Democratic votes for it; he had to beg Bob Kerrey for his vote to get it through the Senate. His presidency was in ruins! He had lost all credibility! (Actually, those of us who had focused on some big ugly trees rather than the blooming forest were the ones who had lost credibility.) It pains me to watch normally reasonable colleagues overreacting to Obama's situation now — which is far less dire than Clinton's was.

The problem is that Republicans know what attracts media attention: shiny new baubles. So we need an even shinier new bauble of our own to distract them. But what? A war? Maybe a shark attack somewhere? Or some Britney news?

Terrorist Watchlist Watch

| Sun Feb. 8, 2009 12:47 AM EST | Scheduled to publish Thu Feb. 5, 2009 1:38 PM EST

TERRORIST WATCHLIST WATCH....This is good news, I think:

The House passed a bill Tuesday aimed at helping people who have been misidentified as terrorists clear their names from government watch lists and databases.

The bill (HR 559), sponsored by Yvette D. Clarke , D-N.Y., passed by a vote of 413-3....“This is a good bill,” said Pete Olson , R-Texas. “This is a bipartisan bill.”

It's always been sort of Kafkaesque that a gigantic security bureaucracy could stick your name on a terrorist watchlist and basically give you no way to get it off. It's long past time for Congress to address this.

But here's what I want to know: if this bill passed 413-3, what took so long? Did Republicans only decide they could afford to support it once George Bush was out of office? Or what?

Conventional Wisdom Watch

| Sun Feb. 8, 2009 12:42 AM EST | Scheduled to publish Thu Feb. 5, 2009 12:52 PM EST

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WATCH....Wednesday's CW: The stimulus bill is doomed! We're all gonna die!

Thursday's CW: It'll pass by Friday, with a few modest changes. Happy days!

You could get whiplash from stuff like this. Hopefully today's CW is the right one.

Honeybees!

| Thu Feb. 5, 2009 10:21 PM EST | Scheduled to publish Thu Feb. 5, 2009 3:20 AM EST
HONEYBEES!....I'm back! Not really at a hundred percent or anything, but in good enough shape for blogging. And I have to say that my timing was pretty good: all I really missed was a fantastic amount of teeth gnashing (tooth gnashing?) over Barack Obama supposedly losing control of the stimulus bill. And I admit that my teeth were gnashing too for a while. But I have to say that with the benefit of thinking about this for a few hours rather than a few minutes, it's pretty obvious that people are overreacting. Yes, Republicans are acting like Republicans, and sure, Obama is going to end up making some compromises. But that's what he said he was willing to do all along. So really, what's the big deal? It's going to work out OK within the next few days, and I'll bet the Senate ends up adding about as much stuff as it takes out. So chill. But speaking of Republicans acting like Republicans, Michael Hiltzik has dredged up a good one. Apparently Neil Cavuto has been carrying on for the past week about an item in the stimulus bill he calls "honeybee insurance," and Mitch McConnell and David Vitter have joined in on the Senate floor to mock this disgraceful waste of taxpayer money. It's shocking! Now, you will be unsurprised to learn that the program in question isn't honeybee insurance at all, it's disaster insurance for all livestock producers. But that's not the best part. This is:

The provision simply continues a program enacted by Congress last year, overriding a veto by President Bush. In other words, the Senate voted on it twice in 2008 — once to enact and once to override. Connoisseurs of political comedy will see the punch line coming: McConnell and Vitter voted yea both times. So it turns out that McConnell isn't really against honeybees. He's only using them to pretend that he's got a principled objection to a stimulus plan aimed at pulling the country out of the most severe recession in decades.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Republican Party. Country first, as always.

Advertise on MotherJones.com

Comments

| Tue Feb. 3, 2009 10:06 PM EST

COMMENTS....Quick note from my deathbed1: We will be making the big switch to our new website this weekend. The migration of content from the old site to the new has already started, however, which means that any comments left between now and Friday will disappear when the new site goes live.

I repeat: Any comments left between now and Friday will disappear when the new site goes live. So if you post anything Pulitzer worthy for the next few days, be sure to keep a copy locally. You have been warned.

1Just kidding.

Off Today

| Tue Feb. 3, 2009 1:02 PM EST

OFF TODAY....I'm sick as a dog today, and there's no telling what kind of gibberish I might spout if I tried to blog. So I'm taking the day off. See you tomorrow, I hope.

For my fellow inmates here in The OC, however, I commend to you this story in Sunday's Register. The nice map they ran in the print edition showing that Orange County is now almost entirely blue and purple among young voters isn't online, but the story itself is almost as good.

Reconciliation

| Mon Feb. 2, 2009 8:22 PM EST

RECONCILIATION....Elana Schor reports that Mitch McConnell is being cagey about whether Senate Republicans will filibuster the stimulus bill. Cue McConnell:

Our goal is to produce a bill that makes a difference; not to kill the measure. So the goal is entirely different from what your question seems to suggest. The goal is to make it better. And we go into this with an open mind. We have two, I think, really good ideas that are entirely in line with what the president I think wants to do.

Actually, I believe him. If Republicans really did put up a united front and filibuster the legislation, the Democratic leadership would just turn around and consider the bill under budget reconciliation rules, which require only a majority vote to pass. Sure, they've already said they'd prefer not to do that, but if they have to they will. And since the bill is all about short-term spending, it would obviously qualify under reconciliation rules.

So all the public handwringing seems like standard DC negotiating kabuki to me, not a genuine effort to kill the bill. If Republicans filibuster, the public will view them as bitter obstructionists and the bill will pass anyway. It's hard to see what's in it for them to go down this road.

POSTSCRIPT: Though if they did lose their minds and filibuster, it would be a great opportunity for Harry Reid to bring back the old filibuster rules and make 'em talk. I know that's just a leftosphere wet dream, but still. It would be great. Hell, how about if we just use this as an excuse to haul out the nuclear option and get rid of the filibuster completely? That would totally rock.

Buy American

| Mon Feb. 2, 2009 3:56 PM EST

BUY AMERICAN....Are we on the brink of a trade war? Or, if not a war, perhaps a trade squabble:

"You're going to see a lot more rhetoric out of leaders against protectionism, but what really matters is their policies," said Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor of economics at MIT....The European Commission is reinstating subsidies on some dairy products to protect its farmers, targeting an area of trade law that remains highly contentious, open to interpretation and potentially damaging to developing countries. Analysts are also bracing for nations to make excessive use of the legal tools now available to them to fight unfair trade, such as filing anti-dumping cases before the WTO.

....In the United States, a move to greatly expand Buy American provisions as part of the $819 billion fiscal stimulus package has generated shock waves in other countries, with Canadian and European officials in particular rising up in protest. The provision, passed by the House on Wednesday, would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out in the stimulus package. A Senate version still being considered goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.

I have to confess that when I first heard of the Buy American provisions in the trade bill, my first thought was, "Well, what do you expect?" Politically, if you're going to ask American taxpayers to pony up $800 billion to rescue the economy, then of course they're going to want this money spend on American goods and services. And given the behavior of the Republican Party so far, if this provision were removed I think it's safe to say that they'd scream blue murder at election time over every ton of Korean steel that ended up in an American bridge or sewer pipe. Their dedication to free trade, after all, has been pretty cynical over the past eight years.

But still, I guess I was a little too jaded about the whole thing. It may be a political problem, but jettisoning the Buy American language would be the right thing to do. A little bit of restraint on our part could buy us a lot of goodwill down the road and prevent a cascading series of similar measures from other countries. It's worth being a grownup on this issue.