Kevin Drum

Carson, Cruz, Fiorina Are the Big Winners After the Debate

| Mon Aug. 17, 2015 11:05 AM EDT

It's taken a while, but we finally have a national poll taken following the Republican debate. Fox News conducted a poll starting on the Tuesday after the debate, so the results capture not just reaction to the debate, but reaction to the big Trump-Kelly feud over the weekend. The results, it turns out, aren't that different from some of the insta-polls: Ben Carson (!) is the big winner and Jeb Bush is the big loser. And Trump? He pretty much stayed where he was.

Carson and Carly Fiorina "won" the debate; Trump and Rand Paul lost it. But these numbers are for all registered voters. Among Republicans, about equal numbers thought Trump did the best or the worst, for a net score (best minus worst) of -1 percent. Surprisingly, independents were the most enthusiastic about his debate performance, giving him a net score of +4 percent.

Overall, nearly half of Republicans now support either Trump, Carson, or Cruz for president. Those are the three of the most extreme candidates running. For the moment, anyway, it appears that Republican voters are in no mood to support anyone even remotely in the mainstream.

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Here's How to Talk Like Donald Trump

| Sun Aug. 16, 2015 3:03 PM EDT

Back in 1996, Newt Gingrich wrote a memo that explained how to talk like Newt Gingrich. "That takes years of practice," he conceded up front, but he revealed that you could come close just by studying a list of his favorite words. Unfortunately, that was two decades ago and Gingrich is now a has-been. So what if you want to speak like Donald Trump? Well, that takes years of practice too. Still, you can come close just by studying a list of his go-to talking points.

So here's the list. Study it. And remember: it doesn't really matter what question you're asked. Whatever it is, just say a few words and then switch to any of these topics at random. There's no need to be subtle, either. Just switch gears. And don't worry if you've already said it. Just say it again. Telling people you're leading in the polls never gets old!

  1. Our national debt is $19 trillion. We're going to be Greece on steroids! I want to get rid of this deficit.
  2. I'd send Carl Icahn to China. He's a great negotiator.
  3. I'll build a huge wall, the greatest wall ever, and Mexico will pay for it.
  4. The Mexicans/Chinese/South Koreans are killing us. They're taking away all our jobs. Our leaders are so stupid.
  5. I get along very well with Mexicans/Chinese/Putin/foreign leaders.
  6. I'm leading in all the polls. All of them.
  7. I cherish women. I have such respect for women.
  8. We have to kick the hell out of ISIS and take all their oil.
  9. Iran is getting $150 billion. That's ridiculous. Also: 24 days is ridiculous too.
  10. I want a simpler tax plan. I want to make it great for the middle class.
  11. Saudi Arabia makes a billion dollars a day.
  12. We have to treat our vets better.
  13. I would be so tough. You wouldn't believe how tough I would be.
  14. I give money to everyone. And then they owe me favors. All the politicians are like that. It's a totally corrupt system.
  15. We don't have time for political correctness.

Here's an example: What do you think about Planned Parenthood?

Well, I hate abortion. And....you know, I cherish women. I have such respect for women. But if you really want to see poor treatment of women, just go to Iraq. They're beheading women! We have to kick the hell out of ISIS and take all their oil. It's the only way. You know, Saudi Arabia makes a billion dollars a day. They should be helping us fight ISIS. We can't afford to do it by ourselves. Our national debt is $19 trillion. We're going to be Greece on steroids! I want to get rid of this deficit.

The sad thing is that this isn't really a joke. It looks like one, I know. But if you read actual Trump answers to actual Trump questions, this is pretty much what they're like.

In any case, this is not an exhaustive list. And if you can't find something you think you can use, don't panic. Just attack. It doesn't really matter who. Megyn Kelly, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Barack Obama, whatever. The more outrageous the better. Alternatively, do just the opposite: say that you love the people/organization in question and will support them totally. You'll be great to them!

Now you can talk like Donald Trump. You're welcome.

Maryland Official: Lead Poisoning Is the Royal Road to Riches

| Sun Aug. 16, 2015 12:25 PM EDT

Technically this has nothing to do with lead and crime, but since I'm Mother Jones' senior lead correspondent it's up to me to put up this outlandish little item from Maryland:

Gov. Larry Hogan's top housing official said Friday that he wants to look at loosening state lead paint poisoning laws, saying they could motivate a mother to deliberately poison her child to obtain free housing.

Kenneth C. Holt, secretary of Housing, Community and Development, told an audience at the Maryland Association of Counties summer convention here that a mother could just put a lead fishing weight in her child's mouth, then take the child in for testing and a landlord would be liable for providing the child with housing until the age of 18.

Pressed afterward, Holt said he had no evidence of this happening but said a developer had told him it was possible. "This is an anecdotal story that was described to me as something that could possibly happen," Holt said.

I'm pretty sure this wouldn't actually work, but that hardly matters. It's just another example of the peculiar Republican penchant for governance via anecdote. They're all convinced that someone, somewhere, is trying to rip them off, but they can never find quite enough real examples of this. So instead we get Reaganesque fables about stuff they heard from some guy who heard it from some other guy who said, you know, it could happen.

By the way, if you're tempted to do this, please don't. Licking a lead fishing weight once probably won't actually cause a detectable rise in blood lead levels, but it's still a really bad idea.

Donald Trump Still Unclear About His Own Talking Points

| Sun Aug. 16, 2015 12:12 PM EDT

Donald Trump gets serious!

RADDATZ: Let me ask you a serious foreign policy question. What would you do about ISIS using chemical weapons?

TRUMP: I think it's disgraceful that they're allowed and you can't allow it to happen and you have to go in and just wipe the hell out of them.

RADDATZ: What do you do? Do you go in with ground troops?

TRUMP: What did you say? Say that again.

Ah, the old "I can't hear you over the crowd noise" routine. I see that Trump is picking up political pointers from the pros already. He's a quick learner.

Over on NBC, he has his usual addled conversation with Chuck Todd, but I see that he hasn't been getting pointers from his policy advisors:

DONALD TRUMP: No, not at all. Look, we are a debtor nation. We owe, I mean, now it's 1.9 trillion, okay? I've been saying 1.8. Now, it's 1 point — it’s really kicked in. It's soon going to be 2.4 trillion dollars, okay? That’s like a point, whether you believe in the great economists or not, that seems to be a point of no return. That's where we're Greece on steroids, okay?

This is one of the dozen or so talking points that Trump uses as his random answer to whatever happens to have been asked, and yet he still doesn't actually understand it. The number he's trying to pull from his brain is 19 trillion, not 1.9 trillion. Since Trump is obviously good with figures and would never misstate, say, the buying price of a property, it's hard to avoid the obvious conclusion that he doesn't really have the slightest idea about—or interest in—the size of the national debt and what it means. It's just a good applause line.

AT&T Is the NSA's Best Friend

| Sat Aug. 15, 2015 2:35 PM EDT

New Snowden documents indicate that AT&T has been the biggest and most cooperative supplier of internet and phone data to the NSA:

AT&T has given the N.S.A. access, through several methods covered under different legal rules, to billions of emails as they have flowed across its domestic networks. It provided technical assistance in carrying out a secret court order permitting the wiretapping of all Internet communications at the United Nations headquarters, a customer of AT&T.

....In September 2003, according to the previously undisclosed N.S.A. documents, AT&T was the first partner to turn on a new collection capability that the N.S.A. said amounted to a “ ‘live’ presence on the global net.” In one of its first months of operation, the Fairview program forwarded to the agency 400 billion Internet metadata records — which include who contacted whom and other details, but not what they said — and was “forwarding more than one million emails a day to the keyword selection system” at the agency’s headquarters in Fort Meade, Md.

....In 2011, AT&T began handing over 1.1 billion domestic cellphone calling records a day to the N.S.A. after “a push to get this flow operational prior to the 10th anniversary of 9/11,” according to an internal agency newsletter. This revelation is striking because after Mr. Snowden disclosed the program of collecting the records of Americans’ phone calls, intelligence officials told reporters that, for technical reasons, it consisted mostly of landline phone records.

US spying on the UN was stopped in 2013 after it was first reported, but it was never clear just exactly how much spying had gone on in the first place. We still don't know, but one of the documents in this new collection says the NSA was authorized to conduct "full-take access," and that the amount of data was so large that it flooded the NSA's technical capability unless a "robust filtering mechanism" was put in place. Sounds like a lot of spying.

Friday Cat Blogging - 14 August 2015

| Fri Aug. 14, 2015 2:50 PM EDT

This is Hopper doing her best impression of the Queen of Sheba. She doesn't deign to stand up when she hydrates herself, but instead lounges idly on the floor while delicately lapping up her water. Soon she'll probably start demanding that I drop individual bits of kibble into her mouth while she reclines on my lap. I'd probably do it, too. And make sure to get some pictures.

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Jeb Bush Will Do Fine Defending His Brother's War

| Fri Aug. 14, 2015 2:09 PM EDT

Jeb Bush just can't stop talking about Iraq:

"In 2009, Iraq was fragile but secure. It was mission was accomplished in the way that there was security there and it was because of the heroic efforts of the men and women in the Untied States military that it was so."

In a question and answer session hosted by Americans for Peace, Prosperity and Security held on a college campus here, the Republican presidential hopeful said the removal of Saddam Hussein from power "turned out to be a pretty good deal," and he praised the 2007 troop surge his brother pushed as "an extraordinarily effective" strategy.

On the debate over interrogation techniques, another issue that dogged his brother, Bush would not say for certain whether he would preserve the executive order President Obama signed banning enhanced interrogation. "I do think in general that torture is not appropriate," he said.

Obviously I think Bush is wrong about all the Iraq stuff, and I'd certainly like to hear a more robust denunciation of torture than calling it "not appropriate." Still, I guess he deserves some credit on the torture score since the rest of the Republican field mostly seems to think the only problem with George Bush's torture policy is that he didn't do enough of it.

But the merits of the Iraq war aside, here's what I'm curious about: is this a winning position with the Republican base? I've been reading a lot of comments about how extraordinary it is that in only a few short years, Republicans have abandoned their Iraq skepticism and become full-bore defenders of the war again. How could it happen so quickly?

But conservative Republicans never abandoned their support for the Iraq war in the first place, did they? Sure, there were times when support dipped a bit in national polls, but conservatives supported the surge from the start; they've always canonized the surge as the point where the war was finally won; they've long excoriated Obama for pulling out troops; and they've been hawkish on ISIS from the beginning. As near as I can tell, conservative Republicans have never really questioned the value of the Iraq war. Nor have they lost their taste for having lots of ground troops there.

So Jeb should do fine by defending his brother's war. Plenty of Beltway types will mock him, but the Republican base has never lost the faith. As far as they're concerned, Iraq was a righteous venture that was ruined only by the gutlessness of President Obama and his cabal of apology tour aides. We coulda won if only we'd just kept at it.

Feinstein: No Classified Info in Hillary Clinton Emails

| Fri Aug. 14, 2015 11:35 AM EDT

I'm pretty sure this has already been widely reported, but today Dianne Feinstein confirmed what we know about those four emails on Hillary Clinton's server that contain sensitive information:

“None of the emails alleged to contain classified information were written by Secretary Clinton,” Mrs. Feinstein said in a statement. “The questions are whether she received emails with classified information in them, and if so, whether information in those emails should have been classified in the first place. Those questions have yet to be answered.”

Mrs. Feinstein also said, “None of the emails alleged to contain classified information include any markings that indicate classified content.”

Should they have been classified at the time? Who knows. That's a spat between State and the CIA, and a fairly uninteresting one. For now, anyway, our national security seems to have survived the Clinton era at the State Department unscathed.

Maybe We'll Have a Trump-Sanders Unity Ticket in 2016?

| Fri Aug. 14, 2015 11:20 AM EDT

Kathleen Hennessey of the LA Times on what Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have in common:

Both Trump, the real estate tycoon, and Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, are tapping into anti-establishment, pro-outsider sentiment that is emerging as a potent force early in the campaign cycle. Years of dissatisfaction with Washington leaders, along with a thirst for authenticity in politics, is leading voters to at least contemplate something different this year — dramatically different.

I guess I'm going to have to keep count of how many reporters write this exact same story. At least there's no mention in this one of the evergreen voter "anger" that we hear about every four years. I'll take my victories where I can get them.

The Strong Dollar Is Keeping America Down

| Fri Aug. 14, 2015 10:44 AM EDT

Ana Swanson writes today that China's devaluation of the yuan is hardly unique. Everyone is devaluing these days:

Since hitting a low point in mid-2011, the U.S. dollar has risen by about a third against a basket of global currencies; in just the last year, it is up 20 percent. Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, says the dollar’s strength already shaved around two percentage points off U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of this year.

The dollar is up against both the euro and the yen thanks to our relatively strong economy. "Relatively" is the key word here: the American economy may be doing better than a lot of others, but it's still growing at the fairly unimpressive rate of 2-3 percent annually.

This highlights a problem for the next president that won't be solved by bluster: there's a limit to how much our economy can grow if the rest of the world is mired in a slump. This is one of the reasons the Fed should stay cautious about raising interest rates. It's not just that the recovery remains fragile; the entire global economy remains fragile. This is not a good time for experiments just to appease inflation hawks.