Kevin Drum

The British Bailout

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 5:27 PM PDT

THE BRITISH BAILOUT....From the Guardian:

Gordon Brown will announce plans today to use up to £50bn of taxpayers' money to take major stakes in the high street banks in a last-ditch attempt to restore confidence in the financial system.

Adjusted for the size of our respective economies, this is about the equivalent of $500 billion. In other words, nearly as big as the Paulson bailout. In other words, big.

However, they're using their money to recapitalize banks, not to buy up troubled assets. Paul Krugman approves.

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Debate Preview

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 2:25 PM PDT

DEBATE PREVIEW....Karen Tumulty notes that 9 out of 10 people are now dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States:

With the nation in that frame of mind, it's hard to believe that talking about Obama's associations with a figure from the 1960s is going to gain McCain much ground. Nor will talking about earmarks, or recycling his stump speech jokes about how the federal government is studying the DNA of bears. These items aren't even a rounding error in the huge federal budget, and sound even smaller in the wake of last week's $700-billion bailout package. And all this is even before most Americans have taken a look at the quarterly statements they will be receiving in coming days that show just how badly their 401(k)s and other investments have been hit.

Two notes. First, what's the deal with the 9% of the country that apparently thinks we're doing OK? Did they not understand the question? Second, as dumb as it is, my guess is that McCain will talk about Ayers and Jeremiah Wright and bear DNA regardless. It's possible that there was never any winning strategy for McCain in the first place, but the strategy he ended up with has nonetheless been almost astonishingly bad. It's like he just put the last few winning Republican campaigns in a blender and decided to repeat them. Neither he nor Steve Schmidt seem to understand that the Republican base just isn't what it used to be.

Debate Bingo....This Time For Real!

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 10:45 AM PDT

DEBATE BINGO....THIS TIME FOR REAL!....Speaking of tonight's debate, our debate bingo game is back and it's better than ever. Thanks to enterprising reader Jason S., you can now print different versions of the card and play actual bingo with your friends tonight. Just click the link to go to our fundraising page and then click on the bingo card. Once you're there, click the Mother Jones logo at the top of the card and all the squares will randomly reset. You can print as many different cards as you like.

Now that's customer service! I'll be liveblogging, of course, so come on by and join us in comments. And as long as you're already at our fundraising page, maybe you can throw a few dollars our way too. It keeps both the magazine and the blogs going and helps keep progressive journalism alive. Pretty good deal, eh?

Debate Format

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 10:19 AM PDT

DEBATE FORMAT....Taegan Goddard summarizes the rules for tonight's "town hall" debate:

The questions will "be culled from a group of 100 to 150 uncommitted likely voters in the audience and another one-third to come via the Internet."...."An audience member will not be allowed to switch questions. Under the deal, the moderator may not ask followups or make comments. The person who asks the question will not be allowed a follow-up either, and his or her microphone will be turned off after the question is read. A camera shot will only be shown of the person asking — not reacting."....McCain and Obama are not supposed to ask each other direct questions.

This is ridiculous. Why bother with a human audience or moderator at all? You might as well just select the questions, project them on a screen via PowerPoint, and televise the results. Wire the candidates up to received increasingly intense electrical shocks if they exceed their time limits and you'd be all done. Anybody got a problem with that?

The Politics of Esthetics

| Tue Oct. 7, 2008 9:26 AM PDT

THE POLITICS OF ESTHETICS....Ezra Klein is agog at Sarah Palin's campaign rhetoric:

I can't remember George W. Bush engaging the culture war with anything even approaching this ferocity in 2004.

McCain and Palin are running on fumes. There's just nothing left for them to talk about aside from unpatriotic liberals, sneering urbanites, and how the mainstream media hates them. The politics of esthetics is all they have left.

It has truly been a remarkable campaign. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose between John McCain and George Bush as president, I don't know who I'd pick — and that's something that would have been inconceivable as recently as a year ago. I wonder if McCain has any idea just how thoroughly he's going to exit this campaign with his reputation permanently soiled and his life story in tatters?

Commercial Paper

| Mon Oct. 6, 2008 11:58 PM PDT

COMMERCIAL PAPER....Banks, finance companies, and large corporations routinely finance their ongoing operations by issuing short-term debt known as commercial paper. It's denominated in large amounts (typically a million dollars or more), it's unsecured, it's low cost, it matures quickly (typically in 30 days or so), and it can be issued easily because it doesn't have to be registered with the SEC. Without access to commercial paper, large modern corporations would seize up and die.

Which, unfortunately, is what's happening right now. The commercial paper market is essentially frozen, and as notes mature and need to be rolled over, companies are finding it impossible to get routine financing. (This is how "Wall Street problems" turn into "Main Street problems.") So today, the Fed announced plans to step in:

As pressure built in the credit markets and stocks spiraled lower around the world on Monday, the Federal Reserve was considering a radical new plan to jump-start the engine of the financial system.

....The Fed plan is intended to renew the flow of credit on which the economy depends. Under its plan, the central bank would buy unsecured commercial paper, essentially short-term i.o.u.'s issued by banks, businesses and municipalities.

And there's more:

On Monday, the Fed announced that it would once again redouble one of its key emergency lending programs, increasing the size of its Term Auction Facility to $600 billion, from $300 billion. On top of that, the central bank plans to provide an additional $300 billion to banks to meet their end-of-the-year cash needs.

To pay for its burgeoning responsibilities, the Fed has no choice but to keep printing more money. To prevent that flood of new money from reducing the central bank's overnight interest rate to zero, the Fed also announced on Monday that it would start paying interest on the excess reserves that banks keep on deposit at the Fed.

Paying interest on reserves allows the central bank to set a floor on interest rates and retain at least some control over monetary policy. In its announcement on Monday, the Fed said it would pay an interest rate of 1.25 percent — three-quarters of a point below its target of 2 percent for the overnight Federal funds rate.

That's a lot of activity for one day, no? Normally, I'd say that stepping into the commercial paper market is a pretty stunning move for the Fed, which is decidedly not in the business of financing corporate operations. But after the events of the past year it seems almost anticlimactic. Before long you'll be getting your auto loans directly from the Fed.

Just to put this in perspective, though, it might actually be a bigger deal than the bailout bill we just spent the past two weeks going berserk over. But it will happen with hardly a peep regardless. I don't think anybody's in the mood to peep right now.

And one other note: remember that $7 billion that California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wanted to borrow from the Fed because the credit markets were frozen? That was for the purchase of Revenue Anticipation Notes, which are routinely used to finance ongoing operations while the state is waiting for tax revenue to arrive in the spring. Unless I'm wrong (and I might be), this is basically a form of commercial paper, which means that California might get its wish. Instead of issuing the RANs privately and paying high rates (if there are any buyers at all), California may be able to make use of the new Fed facility instead. Frankly, I'm not sure we deserve it, but who said life was fair?

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Capitalization

| Mon Oct. 6, 2008 5:01 PM PDT

CAPITALIZATION....Speaking of bank capitalization, if it turns out that the only solution to the credit crisis is a massive injection of capital into the financial system, just how much capital are we talking about? A trillion dollars? Two trillion? Anybody got a decent guess?

Bagging on the Bailout

| Mon Oct. 6, 2008 4:54 PM PDT

BAGGING ON THE BAILOUT....Atrios is annoyed:

If we remember way back to about 2-3 weeks ago, Hank Paulson was promising that there would be NO MORE BAILOUTS. Then, suddenly, we needed a giant BAILOUT RIGHT NOW. The media typically responded by using the Dow as a proxy for the economy/magnitude of the crisis in order to help hype the necessity of a massive bailout. And since the bailout passed, the Dow has tanked.

OK, point taken, but there's a big dollop of unfairness here. It's not as if Paulson and Bernanke just changed their minds for no reason, after all, or that a systemic bailout was a dumb response, or that the Dow is meaningless. Remember the sequence of events here.

Three weeks ago Paulson and Bernanke announced that they wouldn't bail out Lehman Brothers. Maybe that was a risk worth taking, maybe it wasn't, but in any case it didn't pan out. In fact, it was a disaster. So unless they wanted to sit and watch the U.S. financial system melt down completely, P&B didn't have any choice but to change their minds. Better that than to stubbornly cling to their free market principles no matter what the consequences, right? And while the Dow may not be a great proxy for the entire economy, the credit markets really are in big trouble and the Dow reflects that. What's more, the S&P 500 reflects it even better, and it's fallen even further than the Dow. Finally, today's drop is almost certainly a reaction to European problems and the inability of the EU to offer a coordinated response, not a reaction to the Paulson plan.

Now, the Paulson plan may turn out to be bad policy. Plenty of economists think a pure recapitalization scheme would be a better bet. But the mere fact that P&B responded to events and offered up a systemic plan after a solid year of dike-plugging efforts and a final scary-as-hell week hardly counts against them.

And as long as we're on the subject, here's another question: is the problem with the credit markets fear or is it bank capitalization? If the problem really is capitalization, then it's not fear that's keeping banks from making loans. The problem is that they just don't have the money. And yet plenty of economists who think capitalization is the fundamental problem also talk as though fear is really the driving force behind the panic. Which is it?

Troopergate Update

| Mon Oct. 6, 2008 1:00 PM PDT

TROOPERGATE UPDATE....I don't know if this is really going anywhere, but it looks like the Troopergate investigation is moving forward despite the best efforts to the McCain campaign to kill it:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's attorney general announced Sunday that seven state employees will now honor subpoenas to testify in the legislative investigation of the "troopergate" affair.

Attorney General Talis Colberg said the decision comes in light of Superior Court Judge Peter Michalski's ruling last week rejecting an attempt to kill the subpoenas.

The state Department of Law "consulted with the seven state employees and advised them of their options," a statement from Colberg's office said. All seven have decided to cooperate with the investigation, the statement said.

But look. I'm sure there's nothing to worry about here. After all, the McCain campaign thoroughly vetted Palin before they picked her, right?

Regulation Overseas

| Mon Oct. 6, 2008 11:50 AM PDT

REGULATION OVERSEAS....Megan McArdle:

Europe's ongoing disaster is starting to match ours. This not only seriously challenge the idea that the main problem is American bank regulation — everyone is having the same problem, despite different regulatory regimes — but also puts us in much deeper jeopardy.

Be careful here. Weak regulation, especially of the shadow banking system, may not be the only culprit in the credit crisis, but it is a culprit. And it's a culprit in Europe as well as the U.S., as Henry Farrell points out:

European business leaders are now complaining that the EU isn't regulating enough – that is, it isn't engaging in coordinated action to stop its own financial markets from tanking. The reasons for EU inaction lie in the lack of any structures that would militate towards concerted action to address problems of market confidence, in large part because European financial markets are even less regulated than their US equivalents (as I've noted before the EU is typically more interested in liberalizing markets than restraining them, contrary to the general impression in the US).

The problems in the European banking system are pretty similar to the problems in the U.S.: too much leverage, too much credulity about the housing market, and too much manic buying and selling of opaque and complex financial derivatives. Like the U.S., the EU could have saved itself at least part of its current pain if it had adopted a more sensible regulatory scheme. But like the U.S., they didn't.