Kevin Drum

An On Time Departure for Iraq?

So far, everything appears to be on schedule.

| Mon Mar. 15, 2010 2:08 PM EDT

Juan Cole provides a quick update on how things are going in Iraq:

Al-Hayat [Life] is reporting in Arabic that Lt. Gen. Charles Jacoby now says that the US military withdrawal from Iraq is on schedule and that only 50,000 US troops will be in the country by the end of August. He also affirmed that the Iraqi military and police are now capable of keeping order in Iraq, saying that the role they played in providing security during the March 7 elections shows that they have made a big advance in their capabilities.

....The parliamentary election has also not developed into an obstacle to withdrawal. Indeed, it is likely to produce a government that looks somewhat like that of summer, 2006, with Nuri al-Maliki again prime minister....That al-Maliki is likely to get a second term has pros and cons for Washington. The pros are that there will be continuity in Iraqi politics, that al-Maliki has gotten control of the armed forces and will remain in control, and that while he has good relations with Iran, he is not as close to Tehran as some of the fundamentalist Shiite parties in the Iraqi National Alliance. The cons are that al-Maliki has shown little interest in reconciliation with secular, Arab nationalist Sunnis, that he has cultivated tribal militias loyal to himself, and that he has not shown very much interest in or capacity for starting and speeding along projects key to Iraq's economic infrastructure. Washington would no doubt prefer to have an anti-Iran prime minister like Allawi, and one less hostile to Israel.

On the troop question, this jibes with various reports out of the region, including one highlighted by Marc Lynch a few days ago. As for Maliki, my instinct is that the election might actually have gone as well as we could have hoped. A Maliki win provides some stability, which Iraq needs, but a close Maliki win means he still has to pay some attention to the Sunni bloc. There were plenty of worse outcomes possible.

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Quote of the Day: Crying on Demand

How Glenn Beck does it.

| Mon Mar. 15, 2010 1:37 PM EDT

From Howard Kurtz, writing about Glenn Beck's on-air pyrotechnics:

Some staffers say they have watched rehearsals, on internal monitors, in which Beck has teared up or paused at the same moments as he later did during the show. Asked about this, Balfe responded sharply: "Glenn reacts the same way to issues whether he knows people are watching or not, and is proud to show his emotions, unlike the cowardly, two-faced critics who hide behind anonymity."

Take that, you cowardly critics who don't practice your tearing up to make sure you get it right when the cameras are rolling. Beck is just a perfectionist in a fallen world.

Israel and Congress

Is Netanyahu finally straining the U.S. relationship to its breaking point?

| Mon Mar. 15, 2010 1:23 PM EDT

For reasons that I assume are obvious, I don't blog much about Israel. One of those obvious reasons is that it's just too depressing: in pretty much every year for the past half century, I think you could legitimately wish that we could turn back the clock a decade. No matter how unlikely peace seemed at the time, it always seems less likely now.

Still, I'm trying to get my arms around the latest contretemps. Israel's humiliation of Joe Biden during his trip there last week really defies anything I can remember in recent memory. I mean, deliberately choosing that exact moment to announce a new development in East Jerusalem, the one policy that Obama had made clear was his highest priority? It's hard to imagine any other ally doing such a thing. Even China treated Obama better.

AIPAC, of course, thinks the real problem is with the U.S. reaction to Israel's announcement:

The Obama Administration’s recent statements regarding the U.S. relationship with Israel are a matter of serious concern. AIPAC calls on the Administration to take immediate steps to defuse the tension with the Jewish State....The Administration should make a conscious effort to move away from public demands and unilateral deadlines directed at Israel, with whom the United States shares basic, fundamental, and strategic interests.

Yeah, it's just AIPAC being AIPAC. This is what they do. But it's also remarkably tone deaf. No other ally in the world would treat us this way, and if they did you can be sure the Wall Street Journal editorial page wouldn't be defending them. I don't suppose Israel's relationship with the U.S. is in any real danger, but stuff like this makes me start to wonder. At some point even Congress is going to sit up and take notice, and we might be closer to that point than Benjamin Netanyahu and AIPAC think.

Where Are Obama's Nominees?

The Senate is only part of the problem.

| Mon Mar. 15, 2010 12:21 PM EDT

James Oliphant writes in the LA Times about President Obama's difficulty getting judges confirmed. Republican obstructionism is part of the problem, but so is Obama himself:

During President Obama's first year, judicial nominations trickled out of the White House at a far slower pace than in President George W. Bush's first year. Bush announced 11 nominees for federal appeals courts in the fourth month of his tenure. Obama didn't nominate his 11th appeals court judge until November, his 10th month in office.

Moreover, Obama nominees are being confirmed at a much slower rate than those of his predecessor, largely because of the gridlocked Senate.

....Other matters have clearly taken priority in the Obama White House, including healthcare and economy. Obama's top lawyer, Gregory Craig, who departed in November, was consumed with issues such as the Guantanamo Bay prison. The judicial nomination machinery has cranked up under his successor, Robert Bauer, and now the administration is trying to make up for lost time. The White House named two new appeals court judges just last week.

This is something I just don't get. Sure, the White House has been busy with stimulus and healthcare and climate change and financial reform. But judges get vetted by a whole different group of people. Did Craig, all by himself, really hold up things that much? Aren't there other staffers and DOJ folks who can keep this sort of thing rolling with only occasional input from the top folks?

What's more, it's not just judges. As Jonathan Bernstein pointed out a week ago, "The problem of unfilled executive branch positions is to some extent the Senate's fault, but to a much larger extent Barack Obama's fault. It's hard to blame the Senate for failing to confirm people who haven't been nominated....In my view, this has been Obama's biggest failure as a president to date."

So here's an assignment desk for our nation's press corps: stop writing profiles of Rahm Emanuel and instead give us a really good look inside the White House appointment process. Is Obama himself the problem? His staff? Is it really getting hard to find good people willing to serve, as goo-goo types have been warning about forever? What's really going on there?

Healthcare, Typos, and You

No, community health centers won't be allowed to fund abortions.

| Mon Mar. 15, 2010 11:35 AM EDT

Apparently, when you're drafting a bill nowadays, you have to explicitly say that no federal funds may be used for abortion services in every single provision of the bill. Otherwise, who know? Maybe this provision or that provision is exempt! It's not, actually — HHS money is all subject to the Hyde amendment regardless — but that's not stopping the anti-abortion folks from leaping on a typo in the Senate healthcare bill as if it's evidence of a secret conspiracy. Nick Baumann has the story.

A Story About My Congressman

Magical thinking on financial reform.

| Sun Mar. 14, 2010 8:33 PM EDT

Mike Konczal tells us about his appearance on NPR a couple of days ago:

There’s a really awesome moment in it. They asked me about the House’s CFPA exemptions that have been carved out by special interests, and I mention how auto loans have been exempted. I told them that it was put in by a congressman from California who owned a bunch of car dealers, but I wasn’t sure of the congressman’s name.

So they had two additional interviews lined up after me, Rep Brad Miller (D – NC) and Rep John Campbell (R – CA), congressmen they discuss issues with for Planet Money, and right before they start the interview with Campbell their producer figure out it was Campbell who put in the auto loan exemption! So if you listen you can hear him defend it after being called out as the pointman of the exemption I advised Planet Money to watch for. Heh.

Here’s my real problem, and it’s a serious one. Campbell asked for an auto loan exemption to be put into the CFPA, moving it into the direction of a crony corporate welfare bill....Follow this pattern, but in slow motion. It shows up in health care, the stimulus and everywhere else in 2009, but with financial reform it is very easy to see. Democrats wants a bipartisan financial reform bill. So they take a good CFPA and water it down and give all kinds of crony exemptions so Republicans like John Campbell will support it. Then Republicans vote against it anyway.

....As a machine, it’s amazing.

Yes indeed. And that's my congressman he's talking about. I'm so proud.

The problem, though, is: what's the alternative to dealing with guys like Campbell? Mike thinks Sen. Chris Dodd did the right thing when he decided to give up on negotiating with Republicans over financial reform and go it alone, and I agree — even though Dodd on his own still isn't exactly a Wall Street banker's worst nightmare. But what happens then? Answer: Dodd finishes up his bill, it gets reported out of committee, and 41 Republicans vote against it. Financial reform fails.

In the end, I think this is worth it. It's better to make Republicans own their vote against regulating the industry than it is to pass the only kind of bill they'd support: one that's so watered down as to be useless at best and actively harmful at worst.

But we're still left with the question of how to keep 2008 from happening again. In the same way that they've convinced themselves that global warming is just a gigantic hoax, Republicans have also convinced themselves that 2008 wasn't really as bad as everyone made it out to be — and in any case, it was the CRA that sparked it and federal bailout action that poured fuel on the fire. If we'd just left everything alone, the free market would have sorted things out. This is fantasy thinking, but that's where we're at. What's the solution? I'm stumped.

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The End of Tap Dancing?

Tea partiers don't care about the poor and aren't afraid to say so.

| Sun Mar. 14, 2010 1:33 PM EDT

Doyle McManus writes today about a town hall meeting between Blue Dog Democratic congressman Jason Altmire and a group of tea partiers. The Senate healthcare bill, he told them, doesn't have a public option and doesn't raise income taxes:

But the conversation ran aground when he asked a fundamental question: Shouldn't the government help low-income people afford basic health insurance?

"No!" most of the visitors shouted.

"Some of you are never going to agree with me," Altmire said.

It's true! Some people are just never going to agree.

And that's OK, what with this being a democracy and all. But I'll say this: at least the tea partiers are being honest. Most elite conservatives — the ones who write for magazines or get elected to national office — like to tap dance around the question of the poor, pretending that things like tort reform or "more skin in the game" will make everything OK. They know perfectly well it isn't true, but it's politically incorrect to say that they don't consider this a big deal, so they don't.

But not the tea partiers. It's not that they don't understand that the poor often have to go without health insurance, it's that they just don't care. Not if fixing it requires the use of tax dollars, anyway. In a way, this is bracing. It's also, I fear, an attitude that going to become more openly acceptable among mainstream conservatives in the near future as they discover that a big part of their base applauds the idea of dispensing with the tap dancing. Fasten your seat belts.

Healthcare Countdown Begins

The House finally gets serious and sets a deadline.

| Fri Mar. 12, 2010 8:03 PM EST

Things are looking up on the healthcare front:

House leaders laid plans to hold what Speaker Nancy Pelosi called a "historic" vote on health care as soon as late next week, aides said Friday, while President Obama pushed back an upcoming trip to Asia by three days to remain in Washington.

....Under the latest plan, which was still being developed this week, the House would accept the version of health-care reform that the Senate approved on Christmas Eve, with the promise that Congress would adopt adjustments to the new law soon after. The timetable under consideration would put the bill up for a final vote in the House on March 19 or 20.

That's only a week away. And it gets even better!

Democratic Congressional leaders struck a tentative agreement on Thursday that breathes new life into President Obama’s proposed overhaul of federal student loan programs. The deal would bundle the bill into an expedited budget package along with the Democratic health care legislation, which would allow for both measures to be passed by the Senate on a simple majority vote.

....The bill would end government payments to private, commercial student lenders, leaving the government to lend directly to students. It would also redirect billions of dollars to expand the Pell grant program for low-income students, and to pay for other education initiatives.

Now we're talking. A vote by next weekend, and while we're at it we'll also end the insane practice of paying banks billions of taxpayer dollars to make federally guaranteed loans that the federal government can make directly for a lot less. That's what we elected these guys for.

Earmark Peacockery

Earmarks may be bad, but they don't raise the deficit a single dime.

| Fri Mar. 12, 2010 7:41 PM EST

Bruce Bartlett isn't impressed with the budgetary implications of eliminating earmarks:

It's obviously true that earmarks are not a significant cause of rising federal spending; eliminating all of them will save at most one percent of the budget.

Bruce, you gotta read your own blog! Here's Stan Collender a couple of hours earlier: 

As Andrew notes and I've remarked on previously, eliminating earmarks doesn't actually reduce spending; all it does is change who makes the decision from Congress to an executive branch agency. Unless the appropriation is reduced at the same time the earmark is eliminated, which no one is suggesting, the amount that will be spent will remain the same.

This is, for some reason, one of those never-remarked aspects of earmarks. Everyone assumes that they raise spending, but they don't. They just redirect it. I don't understand why earmark opponents endlessly get away with pretending otherwise.

In fairness, if earmarks were eliminated and the related budget authority were eliminated too, it would cut spending a bit. But that's not what anyone is proposing. Until they do, the posturing is even worse than Bruce suggests.

(There are, of course, other reasons to eliminate earmarks, as both Bruce and Stan acknowledge. The primary one is a belief that federal funds ought to be disbursed by federal agencies using neutral guidelines, not handed out as rewards/payoffs by members of Congress to favored interests in their districts. My tentative view is here: cap earmarks, don't eliminate them. But I wouldn't mind eliminating them either.)

Friday Cat Blogging - 12 March 2010

| Fri Mar. 12, 2010 4:03 PM EST

This morning everyone was pondering the great outdoors. On the left, Inkblot and his shadow peer out the sliding glass door wondering if it's safe to go outside. The hummingbirds are thick as flies these days, and they might attack! On the right, Domino peers out the bedroom window and watches the people go by. Her conclusion: it's time for a nap.

Don't forget: daylight saving time starts Saturday night/Sunday morning. One more hour of sunlight in the evening! Hooray! And don't try to use "I forgot to set my clock" as an excuse for missing church, either. Nobody's buying it anymore.