Kevin Drum

Nonboiling Frog Update

| Sat Jun. 6, 2009 6:12 PM EDT

Frog blogging?  Seriously?  I say: bring it on, guys.  Inkblot and Domino are snoozing in terror at the competition.

On the other hand, we all heartily approve of catblogging spontaneously becoming a topic of conversation over twelve packs of Red Stripe and stale Tostitos.  And I have to admit that MoJo's interns have found themselves a handsome looking little amphibian.  Click on the link if you want to help them name their new little critter.

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Friday Garden Blogging - 5 June 2009

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 3:19 PM EDT

It's been a busy week and we all need a break.  So how about a nice, soothing garden to help everyone relax?  Here at Drum Central, the flowers are blooming, the upside-down tomato plant is thriving, our new redbud tree is growing, the sun is shining, and birds are chirping in the birdbath outside the kitchen window.

And, of course, Inkblot is admiring it all — as well he should since he's spent so many backbreaking hours supervising the gardeners.  It's exhausting!  And with that, I'm off to the car dealer to pick up my newly repaired and hopefully non-coolant-leaking wheels.  Have a nice weekend, everyone.

Standing Up to the Imperial Presidency

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 2:49 PM EDT

House Democrats, led by Barney Frank, are finally standing up against the Obama administration's support for the Detainee Photographic Records Protection Act of 2009 — an Orwellian amendment that would retroactively bypass FOIA and allow the administration to unilaterally block the release of photos of detainee treatment with no justification except their own say so.  Good.  Nick Baumann has more.

More on Obama and Democracy

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 2:43 PM EDT

Via email, reader Dan R. reacts to my post this morning on George Bush and his failed democracy agenda:

The problem with Bush's so-called "democracy promotion" wasn't just that it was half-hearted or hypocritical, but that it was such a simplistic approach to democracy: Elections are all that counts. It showed little appreciation for the elements of civil society that are a fundamental requirement of a successful democracy, and that make U.S.-style democracy possible in the U.S. but might not make it possible in a lot of other countries.

Now, I don't think Obama wants to go out and say that some countries aren't educated enough or have the civil traditions and institutions required for American-style democracy. So he's treading a fine line. But the reality is that the things he talked about — rule of law, government transparency, lack of corruption, equal administration of justice, freedom of the press, minority rights — are more realistic goals for many countries and appropriate way-stations on the way to what we would consider a full-fledged democracy.

I think Obama is exactly right in focusing on the values that underly democracy rather than the external forms....By striking a middle ground between "idealists" who would make democracy and human rights the sole focus of foreign policy and "realists" who would ignore American values in favor of American interests, this kind of thinking represents a very sophisticated step forward in our foreign policy.

Quote of the Day #2

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 1:26 PM EDT

From Bob Enyart, spokesman for Colorado Right to Life, on the assassination of abortion doctor George Tiller:

"If a Mafia hit man gets killed, people recognize it's an occupational hazard."

According to the LA Times, this was his way of explaining that "his group doesn't condone Tiller's slaying."

Obama and Democracy

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 1:12 PM EDT

Yesterday Michael Rubin complained that Obama never mentioned democracy in his Cairo speech.  Today he corrects the record: in fact, Obama dedicated an entire section of his speech to democracy.  Then he adds this:

But, I stand by the point of my post: Obama stepped back from demanding accountability at polls....Bush embraced democracy and transformative diplomacy. Many progressives and liberals turned on democratization because they didn’t want to be associated with Bush.  Now that Obama is victorious, it would be a real tragedy for progressivism, liberalism, and human rights if the progressive movement embraced cultural relativism and convinced itself that liberty really didn’t matter.

This is really one of the most annoying of all tropes from the Bush-defending right.  The plain facts here are pretty simple: George Bush talked a lot about democracy, but he was in favor of it only when it produced results he liked.  He was fine with democracy in Ukraine and he was fine with democracy in Lebanon.  He loved the purple fingers in Iraq — though only after the UN and al-Sistani pretty much forced elections on him.  Conversely, when Hamas won an election in Gaza, it was not so fine.  When Musharraf and Mubarak conducted obviously rigged elections in Pakistan and Egypt, his adminstration tut tutted a bit and then went about its business.  To the small extent that Bush was ever truly dedicated to democracy promotion in the first place — and it was never more than purely incidental to the Iraq war project — he had plainly given up on it completely by 2006 at the latest.

George Bush's main achievement in this arena wasn't to promote democracy, it was to completely cement Arab cynicism about America's obvious lack of concern for democracy.  Whether Obama is "stepping back" from this I couldn't say, but he certainly can't do any worse on the democracy promotion front than George Bush.

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Unemployment and the Stress Tests

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 11:56 AM EDT

This is, obviously, nothing new, but Felix Salmon is right to remind us that the "adverse" scenario for Tim Geithner's stress tests — that is, the worst case doomsday projection — used an unemployment rate of 8.9% for 2009.  The reality, though, is already much gloomier: we're only up to May and the actual unemployment rate is 9.4% and still heading north.

One number doesn't represent an entire economy.  But this one is pretty important, and Treasury's forecasters weren't even in the right ballpark.  It makes you wonder how realistic the rest of their assumptions were.

Quote of the Day

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 11:43 AM EDT

From JB Williams, a "no nonsense commentator on American politics, American history, and American philosophy":

Why does the Obama administration need or want the latitude and longitude coordinates for every home in America? Why the rush to GPS paint every home in the next 90 days? Why must the marker be within 40 ft of every front door? For what possible purpose does the Fed [i.e., the Census Bureau –ed.] need GPS coordinates for every home, and under what authority do they have the right?

I sure hope nobody ever tells this poor guy about the U.S. Postal Service and how they manage to deliver mail to your house every day.  He'd probably have a stroke.

Chart of the Day

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 11:18 AM EDT

Dana McCourt provides this handy chart showing just what the stakes are in the fight over late-term abortions.  If, like me, you think that viability outside the uterus is the best rough measure of whether a fetus is a human being that deserves legal protection, this chart is telling: the absolute lower limit for viability is around 22 weeks, and only about 1% of all abortions are performed that late.  Past 24 weeks, according to a footnote later in the post, only about 100 abortions are performed per year.  Post-viability abortions are very, very rare, and performed almost exclusively for serious medical reasons.

Needless to say, if you believe that life begins at conception and are unwilling to accept that personhood is a continuum with some inevitable grayness, this won't persuade you of anything.  For the rest of us, who believe that fetuses become human beings at some point during pregnancy but before birth, it's worth understanding just how few post-viability abortions there are.  And since that 22-week marker is due to fundamental developmental issues related to the brain and the skull, it's unlikely that scientific advances outside of full-blown artificial wombs will ever have much effect on this.

In any case, no matter how you feel about this, now you know.  Late term abortions are very rare things indeed.

(Via Andrew Sullivan.)

Dems v. Dems

| Fri Jun. 5, 2009 2:43 AM EDT

Chris Hayes:

It seems strange, almost surreal, to say this, but the Republican Party, and arguably the whole conservative movement, is not the left's biggest enemy at the moment. On keeping a public plan in healthcare reform; streamlining student lending; and passing the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), cap and trade, financial regulation and a host of other structural economic reforms progressives hope to enact, the GOP is more akin to the garbage men than the alderman. [Click the link for an explanation of what this analogy means. –ed.]

"Most Republicans aren't waking up every day thinking, How do we kill banking regulation?" says Goehl. "Most people who listen to Rush Limbaugh aren't waking up thinking about how do we kill banking regulation. But the people with the deep pockets who have power in DC are thinking that.

"I sometimes get frustrated because it seems like the left isn't focused on corporate power. We like to talk about the Sarah Palins and Rush Limbaughs, and meanwhile the American Bankers Association is one of the main entities running the country."

....While the Republican Party shrinks, corporate interests are deftly molting their old K Street Project skin and crawling en masse inside the big tent being pitched by the Democratic Party. These same corporate interests have always had a purchase on Democrats, of course. But for much of the last decade, business interests had the luxury of spending most of their resources aiding their allies in the GOP.

Chris is right: the biggest threat to the Democratic agenda these days isn't the Republican Party.  It's the Democratic Party.