The Republican Path to the Nomination, In Helpful Video Format
This is a neat little video. John McCain, perhaps sensing he has nothing to lose, has put his strategy PowerPoint online. Rarely do you see such candor from a campaign.
If you're a political junkie, you might enjoy it. If not, here's the takeaway. No Republican will emerge from Iowa or New Hampshire with the nomination secured, the campaign theorizes. Even if one of the candidates does exceptionally well in both states, which is no sure thing, he will still have to contend with the fact that Rudy Giuliani has adopted a "late state" strategy and will by lying in wait for him in the February 5th states.
But if someone does well in both Iowa and New Hampshire and turns that momentum into wins in the middle states (i.e. the states that come between IA/NH and the 20+ states voting on February 5th), they will be so far ahead they'll be able to treat February 5th like a victory lap. That means Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida are more important than people realize. The McCain campaign seems to think whoever wins Florida, in particular, has the inside track on the nomination.
Anyway, this video obviously has a McCain slant, but it's valuable because it illustrates a campaign manager's thinking. Enjoy.