Fred Barnes on Fox News just predicted that Obama will best Clinton tonight, and that because of Clinton's formerly inevitable status, it will make worldwide news. That's a courageous move by Barnes only because making any predictions today is risky—any of the top three Democrats could win and either Romney or Huckabee could take the Republican race. I'm going to chicken out/be completely honest and admit that I have no real idea what's going to happen. I think the Des Moines Register's last poll will be correct enough to give Obama a slight win, but let's not put that in print or on a blog or anything. And I think Romney's long-established and well-financed turnout machine will give the former MA governor the win over Huckabee and his still-nascent campaign. But again, I'm not going to stand by that. Aren't you glad I'm here?

Let's take a look around the punditocracy and see what the predictions are of those a little ballsier than I.

Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics has this to say:

I'll be shocked if Barack Obama doesn't win. In fact, I think he's potentially sitting on a very big win. He seems to have upward momentum in the polls, his crowds are huge, and his message appears to still be connecting with voters and there is no indication that he's experiencing an erosion of support in the final hours of the campaign. In other words, all the signs are pointing to a strong finish for Obama.
As I've said before, that will open the door for him to run the table on Clinton in the early states, especially if she finishes third - which I think she might. I'm hesitant to underestimate the Clinton people or their organizing ability, but from what I can tell she has nowhere near the enthusiasm in her campaign or among her supporters to match Edwards or Obama....
On the Republican side, the two-man race is literally a coin flip. My sense is the campaigns themselves believe it is so close it could go either way. Romney appears to have the better organization, but the polls say Huckabee has the more committed supporters.

Tom Schaller at the American Prospect:

As Iowa votes, New Hampshire appears to be tending narrowly toward McCain on the Republican side with Hillary holding a slight lead in the Democratic column. In Iowa for last minute barnstorming, McCain could get an added boost in New Hampshire if Fred Thompson, as expected, drops out of the race.

The polls this morning:

- A 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released yesterday has McCain with 32 percent followed by Mitt Romney with 23 percent; Rudy Giuliani, 11; Mike Huckabee, 10; Ron Paul, 8; Fred Thompson, 2; and Duncan Hunter, 1, with 13 percent undecided.

- Another poll, this one from Franklin Pierce University/WBZ has McCain ahead of Romney with 37 points to Romney's 31. But this poll has 28 percent of likely primary voters undecided.

- A CNN-WMUR poll out this morning shows McCain and Romney tied with Hillary 4 points up on Obama.


WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — John Edwards' 36-hour "Marathon for the Middle Class" culminated tonight with a concert performance by John Mellencamp at the Val Air Ballroom in West Des Moines. Mellencamp rocked classics like "Pink Houses" and "Jack and Diane" (which both got the notoriously cynical press corps taking pictures on their digital cameras), but he finished with the incredibly obnoxious "This Is Our Country," which has been used by Chevrolet to basically ruin several years worth of baseball playoffs.

Edwards' speech, which followed the musical performance, would have been familiar to regular MoJo readers, who know all about Edwards' "fight" theme. He has sharpened his attacks on Obama's approach to health care reform slightly. He tells the story of a 17-year-old girl who had to fight her insurance company for a much-needed liver transplant, only to get them to agree too late to save her from a premature death. "You want me to sit at a table and negotiate with those people?" Edwards shouted, indignantly. "It will never happen. Never!"

The Edwards message has been crystallized: "Corporate greed is robbing our children of the promise of America." His stump speech is basically an exercise in finding a dozen different ways of making that point. If you agree that corporations "have an iron-fisted grip on [American] democracy," and that only a candidate with "some strength, some fight... and some backbone" can break that grip, you've got your candidate.

Voters who don't mind corporations (perhaps because they work for one), or who feel that presidents can gain more with honey than with vinegar... they'll have to look elsewhere in tomorrow night's caucus.

I'll be in a caucus room, bringing you a blow by blow. Hopefully, I'll have a report from the victor's party as well. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, bone up a little on how the caucus works.

art.leno.ap.jpg Love this:

Republican Mike Huckabee, a presidential candidate sounding a populist theme, appeared on the "Tonight Show" with Jay Leno on Wednesday despite the strike and picketing by the show's writers.
Earlier Wednesday, Huckabee said he supports the writers and did not think he would be crossing a picket line, because he believed the writers had made an agreement to allow late night shows back on the air.
"My understanding is that there was a special arrangement made for the late-night shows, and the writers have made this agreement to let the late night shows to come back on, so I don't anticipate that it's crossing a picket line," Huckabee told reporters traveling with him Wednesday from Fort Dodge to Mason City.
In fact, that is true only of David Letterman, who has a separate agreement with writers for his "Late Show."
Told he was mistaken and that writers had cleared only Letterman's show, Huckabee protested:
"But my understanding is there's a sort of dispensation given to the late-night shows, is that right?"
Told again that he was wrong, Huckabee murmured, "Hmmm," and, "Oh," before answering another question.

New nickname ideas for Huckabee: Mr.-Not-Ready-For-Primetime or Mr.-Worst-Staff-Ever.

From CNN:

Even for the severe pain of kidney stones, minorities were prescribed narcotics such as oxycodone and morphine less frequently than whites.
The analysis of more than 150,000 emergency room visits over 13 years found differences in prescribing by race in both urban and rural hospitals, in all U.S. regions and for every type of pain.

While we get dumber and dumber (God knows we couldn't get much fatter), the rest of the world is doubling down on education. Our own President knows that our children "isn't" learning which is cool with him and his ilk, because the children of the rich are and somebody's got to make the fries. The three R's receive a lot less attention here, than the one big R: religion. Intelligent design, abstinence only; seems we're more fired up about having, or not having, those things in our schools than having academic standards which are challenging and geared toward future success. That's how Japan sees education (and that's how they opened that can of econmic whoop ass on us, post-war); now that their international rankings have dipped, they're inclined to get all innovative and actually work harder. Fascinated with India's burgeoning economy, teachers and schools from that country are turning away students in Japan. From the New York Times:

Last month, a national cry of alarm greeted the announcement by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that in a survey of math skills, Japan had fallen from first place in 2000 to 10th place, behind Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. From second in science in 2000, Japan dropped to sixth place....
While China has stirred more concern here as a political and economic challenger, India has emerged as the country to beat in a more benign rivalry over education. ...India's success in software development, Internet businesses and knowledge-intensive industries in which Japan has failed to make inroads has set off more than a tinge of envy.
Most annoying for many Japanese is that the aspects of Indian education they now praise are similar to those that once made Japan famous for its work ethic and discipline: learning more at an earlier age, an emphasis on memorization and cramming, and a focus on the basics, particularly in math and science.
India's more demanding education standards are apparent at the Little Angels Kindergarten, and are its main selling point. Its 2-year-old pupils are taught to count to 20, 3-year-olds are introduced to computers, and 5-year-olds learn to multiply, solve math word problems and write one-page essays in English, tasks most Japanese schools do not teach until at least second grade.

And we never teach to far too many of our citizens. Imagine, your American five year old writing one-page essays in English (let alone in Japanese). Now, imagine what's likely going on in your kids' class room right now, unless you're very, very lucky. I found myself aghast one day when my pre-schooler cam home singing a classroom song composed entirely of fast food joint names that his school had taught him and graded him on. He's in an excellent public charter now, not least because of the dumbing down of our public schools. His school is challenging and loving and constantly checking itself for best practices to absorb from elsewhere. Sorta like Japan.

dead_iraqi130.gif The Iraq War remains the number one priority for Democrats (see graphic on left side here) although it has almost completely dropped off the national radar.

Perhaps that because 2007, despite reports of the situation in the country getting better and better, was the deadliest year of the war for American soldiers and was deadlier for Iraqi civilians than 2006.

The Montgomery Independent, having completed an investigation of Governor Bob Riley, has concluded that Riley may have violated campaign finance laws in 2002 and 2006. According to the Independent's reporters, the governor may have tried to conceal corporate donations during both those years, when he was running for office.

This is hardly the first time that the words "Riley" and "election" have appeared together in a suspicious way. Karl Rove is alleged to have been involved in the 2002 Alabama election, when GOP consultant Bill Canary, an adviser to Riley, worked with Rove to bring Governor Don Siegelman to prison on ethics charges.

In that very close election, Alabama Attorney General William Pryor--another of Canary's clients--clinched Riley's victory when he declared that unsealing the ballots for a recount would be a crime. The request for a recount came after there was a last-minute switch of several thousand votes in one county from Siegelman to Riley.

The Montgonmery Independent discovered that in 2006, the Riley campaign reported the use of airplanes owned by two corporations as personal "in-kind" donations from the corporations' presidents. Also listed as a personal donation was the use of an advertising billboard from the president of the ad agency. Together, these donations had a value of over $25,000, significantly exceeding the $500 limit allowed for any one corporation in a single election cycle.

Is there a mole in Huckabee HQ?

How else to explain two bizarre last-minute decisions of Mike Huckabee's campaign. First, the former Arkansas governor held a near-meltdown of a press conference on Monday, during which he decried negative campaigning but then played for the assembled camera crews the anti-Romney ad he had commissioned and had decided not to use. Then on Wednesday, Huckabee was scheduled to leave frosty Iowa--the day before the caucuses--for sunny L.A. to appear on the Jay Leno show. So he was trading a day of campaigning in the Hawkeye State for several minutes of chuckles on a national television show that probably is not watched by many of his potential voters, older social conservatives (unless these Iowans have a secret lust for Paris Hilton jokes). Huckabee certainly could reach more caucus-goers by working the Iowa media. And Iowan voters, as you know, expect to be treated like royalty by the candidates. Spurning them for laughs with Leno is not a show of respect. It looked as if Huckabee was more concerned with me-time than kneeling before Iowans--a true sin in presidential politics.

It practically seems that someone calling the shots in the Huckabee command is trying to sabotage his almost-a-miracle campaign. Whom might that be? Well, longtime readers of mine know that I am usually quite skeptical of conspiracy theorizing. But in this case, let me suggest a culprit: Ed Rollins. The veteran Republican strategist and operative recently signed on as Huckabee's campaign chairman. Rollins, who ran Ronald Reagan's wildly successful reelection campaign in 1984, has had a bumpy relationship with the GOP establishment. He worked for Ross Perot (as opposed to President George H.W. Bush) in 1992. But he has usually been a loyal GOPer. In the 1990 election, he ran the National Republican Congressional Committee. In 1993, he was campaign manager for Republican Christine Todd Whitman's successful gubernatorial effort in New Jersey. The following year, he helped Republican George Nethercutt, a Republican, unseat Democratic House Speaker Tom Foley. And he has assisted several Republicans since then.

It's been pretty clear--even if you don't read the National Review and watch Fox News--that the GOP elite is not keen on Huckabee ending up as the Republican nominee. So could Rollins be a double-agent? A plant of the GOP high-and-mighty, which would be delighted to see Huckabee crash and burn? Rollins does have a rep as an underhanded operative. After the Whitman race, he disclosed that he had had secretly paid black ministers and Democratic campaign workers in New Jersey to suppress the black vote. (He then partially retracted the remark, saying the comment was "an exaggeration that turned out to be inaccurate.") And in a 1996 book, Rollins claimed that he had learned (after the fact) about an illegal $10 million contribution to Reagan's 1984 campaign from Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, but Rollin has refused to disclose details about this supposed crime.

So is it possible that Rollins is the GOP's Man in Huckabee Land? That may be fanciful speculation on my part. (Few high-profile strategists would want to be seen losing a campaign.) But the only other explanation is that after years of skillful politicking, Rollins has lost his game and gone stupid. Can you believe that?

Ron Paul supporters are up in arms over the expulsion of their candidate from a Fox Republican candidate forum two days before the New Hampshire vote.

"If we permit Fox News Channel executives the power 'to limit a Sunday forum the state GOP party is co-sponsoring to five presidential candidates' based on polls, then this country really is in trouble," said Michael Kelly in a comment to the Nashua Telegraph this morning.

Meanwhile, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are asking ABC and the local WMUR — sponsors of the last big debate this Saturday — to let in candidates who have been included in past debates.

Under criteria set by the sponsors, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden, two sitting Democratic senators, and Dennis Kucinich, a sitting congressman, are likely to be excluded. Clinton said yesterday: "I believe in the true spirit of the New Hampshire process; the candidates who have participated in past debates should not be excluded from this one."

"The voters of New Hampshire deserve to hear all the Democratic candidates' views on who can best lead America in a fundamentally new direction, and that's why I urge these networks to allow full participation in this week's debate," Obama said.

John Edwards and John McCain said they didn't want to interfere with the network decision.

"Fox News is scared of Ron Paul," wrote Eric Martin in response to a Nashua Telegraph article. "I'm not sure why, but they are. There is an opportunity for the New World Order to be overturned and for sovereignty to be given back into the hands of the people. I think that much of what Ron Paul stands for is the truth. Fox News should be scared not to allow Ron Paul in the debates. For some reason, the truth always stands in the end. It may be a thousand years from now, but at the end the truth will be standing on top of all the lies that tried to usurp it. If Fox News tries to hide the truth, it will fall, especially as a news organization, and one whose slogan is 'fair and balanced.' Fox News should include Ron Paul in there debates."

His detractors could care less "Just face it, Ron Paul is a weenie spouting crack pot ideas," said Robert Chapman in another comment. "The reason people think he has more than 5 percent support is because every crack pot is drawn to him like a full moon."