- ‹ previous
- 2742 of 7881
- next ›
Vote Totals vs. Recent Polling: Who Exceeded Expectations on Feb 5?
In an effort to see which Democratic candidate exceeded expectations on Super Tuesday, I grabbed the most recent polling numbers from pollster.com and actual vote totals from the New York Times. The result is this chart, which shows that the percentage of the vote that Obama actually received exceeded the percentage of the vote polling said he would receive in every state except Illinois (where expectations for BHO were in the stratosphere). In some instances, Obama shattered expectations: he did 11.8 percent better that polling suggested in Alabama, 8.5 percent better in Connecticut, 15 percent better in Georgia, and 12 percent better in Oklahoma.
But Clinton did better as well, which means that some portion of both candidates' gains can be attributed to voters who told pollsters there were undecided but chose a candidate on election day. Clinton picked up slightly fewer of these voters, and in three states, underperformed by a moderate amount.
On average, Obama beat the polls by 6.5 percent and Clinton beat them by 2.4 percent. States that had insufficient polling were not included on this chart. Those states include one that went for Clinton (Arkansas), four that went for Obama (Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, and Kansas), and one that is still undecided (New Mexico).
Digg
Reddit
Twitter
Facebook
Buzz Up!
StumbleUpon
MySpace
LinkedIn
Delicious
Furl
Google
Yahoo
Capt; People are too sensitive, sometimes we are just typing too fast. If I misspell a word, tell me. I will appreciate it.
Mr. Stein, of course Obama beat expectations by a higher margin - his expectations were lower than Clinton's. It's called Do The Math. By the way, your blatant bias towards Obama is fast approaching idoletry. I thought Mother Jones was supposed to be objective. I was an adult during the Clinton years - not still in junior high, like most of Obama's supporters - so I know those years were pretty good. And I think you would be hard pressed to disagree. So tell me again, why do so many people, including you Mr. Stein, hate Hillary Clinton?
idolatry
capt.....Mr. Wolforth is right. I look to MJ to be objective and they are definitely in Obama's camp. Oh, and by the way, can you spell meanspirited?
Jeeze, I correct one word and I am both wrong and meanspirited?
BTW - yes it is mean-spirited or mean spirited. Not one word.
If you don't like what you read nothing wrong with saying so. That doesn't make me wrong for the correction.
So, if you are serious, please explain how a one word correction means I think someone else is wrong or right, or could it be you are reading a bit too much into a one word correction?
Remember Edwards, everybody's favorite populist, talking about how America can't afford to replace corporate Republicans with "corporate Democrats"? Who do you think he was referring to, community organizer Barack or Wal-Mart boardmember Hillary?Take your blinders off, the party of the middle class is being hjacked by the corporatists! MoJo isn't all that biased, but neither is it all that stupid!
Thank you silverlucie. Hey capt, as for idolatry, if you Google the word (I'm such a corporate stooge), you'll find it spelled both ways. And why can't you admit that your correction was an attempt by you to belittle my intelligense? Oh, sorry, that's intelligence. One more thing, it's Jeez, not jeeze.
"And why can't you admit that your correction was an attempt by you to belittle my intelligense"
???
If correcting one word is seen as an attempt at anything other than a one word correction - so be it!
Misspell away - I will not bother to offer any corrections in the future.
No attempt at anything was implied.
Thanks
For quick reference try m-w-dot-com
There is no alternative spelling for idolatry.
Using google to check spelling is not a viable reference. The fact that others might misspell the word is not support of the misspelling.
FWIW
Capt; People are too sensitive, sometimes we are just typing too fast. If I misspell a word, tell me. I will appreciate it.
MSO,
Thanks, and correct me too. We all miss here and there. I ALWAYS miss the most simple two letter words that pass spell check like - of for if - in for is - and others.
I can never proof myself worth a darn.
Corrections are never intended as a "better than thou"
How does a chart with accurate facts and figures, presented accurately, constitute "idolatry"?
I was a Mathlete, and we kind of thought of it as, you know, science.
Reality is biased towards Obama at the moment, y'all. And yes, Mr. Wolforth - his supporters include the better spellers. Meow!
Better speller - NOT!
I am a terrible speller. I have to spell check everything and I had to look up the word in question.
Not to mention the fast typing thing.
It is just NBD
good!!
thanked post
You spammers, writing endless and meaningless "thank you" posts on ancient blogs, that just bury the conversations people are currently having..., just to get your username-link in view again...
Why don't you go to a nice little island somewhere and wait for a hurricaine?
thanks for all
Sometimes if we present the obvious truth we either get accused of being one-sided or bias. They just don't know what we mean by what we have shown.
People are too sensitive, sometimes we are just typing too fast. If I misspell a word, tell me. I will appreciate it.