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Popular Vote Musings on a Friday Afternoon
A friend just alerted me to the fact that the popular vote section at Real Clear Politics has myriad different totals for the Democratic primary race. Enough to make the notion of a "popular vote" useless, in fact.
Here are the different ways you could calculate the popular vote. If there's something I'm not thinking of, tell me in the comments.
1. Just the primaries.
2. The primaries with Florida.
3. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan's "uncommitted" going to Obama.
4. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan's "uncommitted" going to no one.
5. The primaries, plus caucuses.
6. The primaries with Florida, plus caucuses.
7. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan's "uncommitted" going to Obama, plus caucuses.
8. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan's "uncommitted" going to no one, plus caucuses.
You can see why people are so confused. Further complicating the picture: Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington state are caucus states that have not released public figures on caucus attendance. Estimates are needed in those instances.
I think in scenario 4, Clinton might be winning the popular vote. Maybe. Or something.
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I think you left out the caucus votes that Obama won (he won most of the caucuses anyway, but most caucuses don't keep tallies of votes.)
I think this popular vote thing is a non-sense anyway. No matter how we count it Clinton's will spin it. I am just waiting to hear Clinton campaign to say Obama's wins don't count at all. I wish HRC just go away or become a president of the country of WEST VIRGINIA she dearly loves.
Yep, further permutations needed:
9. For the primary numbers in any of the above, use:
a) states that allowed only Democrats to vote
b) states that allowed Democrats and offered party switches at the polls
c) states that allowed anyone at all without party switch.
It's important, because a state with "c" could have the same number of Democrats-and the same number of delegates-as a state using "a", but have half again as many "popular" votes, since non-Democrats joined in. When the state totals are combined, voters in "c" states count more than voters in "a" states. MN, I believe, has several times as many popular votes as does MO. States where Republicans dropped in (for whatever purpose) would have more clout than states in which Democrats themselves had the chance to pick their candidate. Rush would like that.
One person, one vote? Hardly!
Jonathan, let's face it, as long as enough voters continue to be persuaded by political rhetoric that insults our intelligence we shall continue have the dysfunctional democracy we have today.
The latest issue of CALIFORNIA alumni magazine has a Free Speech article: "Wrong Trajectory - America is losing its higher education advantage, with enormous repercussions" by John Aubrey Douglass that should interest your readers:
http://alumni.berkeley.edu/california/200805/freespeech.asp
thank you !