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Polling Tidbits: Sarah Palin Now Least Popular of the Big Four
If Democrats are good at anything its wailing, beating their chests, and tearing their garments (no, that isn't like "flagging the molecules"). But it's clear now the despair over Obama's supposedly doomed presidential chances was silly. The main reason? Palin is simply not the giant-killer we thought she was. Take a look at this chart (via Wonkette). Due to weeks of unrelenting vetting by the media (i.e. sustained negative press), she now has the lowest approval rating of any member of either ticket.
And this is the end-result of hiding her from the press. Can you imagine what would have happened if the McCain campaign had treated her like an adult and put her in front of reporters?
In other numbers-related news, the quant geeks over at FiveThirtyEight.com report that the possibility of a 269-269 electoral tie is climbing. The reason is relatively simple: the election is nearing but the race is still close in key states, meaning that the likelihood of one of the two candidates winning in a blowout is going down. FiveThirtyEight points to one tie scenario above all others:
...there is one specific scenario that is driving this outcome. That is the scenario wherein Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire. Of the 320 times that our simulation ended in a tie, this particular scenario was responsible 294 times. Indeed, we presently have Obama winning precisely the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, so all that would be needed to make a tie occur is to flip New Hampshire back to McCain, and entirely reasonable possibility.
What an absolute horror show that would be.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks?many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004?about 2.5 percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents?voters Obama can't win the White House without?agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality to the campaign.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks?many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004?about 2.5 percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents?voters Obama can't win the White House without?agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality to the campaign.
Perhaps before election day more of Palin's shallow depths will have been sufficiently drilled, baby, drilled to sink them both. I'm looking for a decisive, ruinous, Dukakis in the tank moment.
Kind of like obamas ruinous moment, last sunday on the show This Week... When he refered to is
"Muslim" religion...?
He didn't even correct himself...!!! George Stefenopolis had to correct him...
He is toast..!!!
He says what he really means and believes when he is under pressure..:-)
BIll
I'm 30 years old, and so didn't really know the lengths McCain went to in suppressing information on POW's left behind in Vietnam. The man is pure evil and a traitor. Where's the MSM on this? It's an old story that bears repeating.
Not to bore you with the facts, but it is incorrect to state that Palin has the lowest approval rating.
The chart that you reproduced deals with net approval, not approval ratings. If you click through to the Gallup data, you will see that both Palin and Biden have a 40% approval rating but Biden's disapproval rating is lower.
Bill Nigh,
I see you're still at it. It's going to take some doing but we're going to hand you and your racist ilk your hats and show you the door in Nov. No Country For Old Racist Men.
A horror show? We saw worse in 2000. At least the Constitution is clear where an Electoral College tie is concerned: the election goes to the House of Representatives. Last I heard, Democrats had a comfortable majority over there. Obama would win.
The real horror show is the more likely scenario. The old (4 election cycles) adage applies that a Democrat has to win by at least 5% or the Republicans will steal it. And they will. I saw Ohio close up in 2004, we all saw Florida in 2000, and if you add New Hampshire Senate in 2002 plus Georgia, Florida, Maryland and a few other Congressional seats in 2006, it ought to be clear that Dems don't win close elections. Certainly not close Presidential elections.
Republicans aren't the only ones who'll 'steal' an election if they're in a position to do so.
Research the 1984 McCloskey vs. McIntyre contest for Indiana's 8th Congressional district.
A House of Representatives controlled by Democrats overturned Indiana's officially certified recounts that showed the Republican winning by 418 votes, to give the seat to the Democrat.
They based their decision on a recount by a panel of their own choosing, headed by Leon Panetta, that determined the Repub had lost by 4 votes.
In case anyone wonders, Indiana's Governor at the time was Democrat Evan Bayh, so it's unlikely the Indiana certified numbers were juggled to favor the Repub.
If you'd like to see how the GOP will win, check out blackboxvoting.com. Interestingly enough the name Dieboldt - which was the subject of much scrutiny has disappeared and a new company has appeared. Different name. Same players.
PALIN CHEERS TO PALIN TEARS - BY NEMESIS
But it's clear now the despair over Obama's supposedly doomed presidential chances was silly. The main reason? Palin is simply not the giant-killer we thought she was.
No.
The folks were worried because Joe and Jane Q Public didn't see through the ruse right away. That is: "why can't everyone see through this BS, and why is there a bump in the polls?!?!?".
No one that I know of thought she was some kind of giant-killer. I said from day one that she isn't going to work out (but was concerned over the polls and Obama's slow response. I'm better now.).
DS
This may be the last election for the electoral college if they stand in the way of a popular vote. There is a large and growing effort to eliminate the antiquated, vestigial system.
The mechanism to eliminate the Electoral College is nearly insurmountable. Low pop states could kill the effort easily. Sad but true.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacksmany calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004about 2.5 percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independentsvoters Obama can't win the White House withoutagreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality to the campaign.
Everyone can say what they want but am telling you Obama is going to win this election overwhelming. The republican party is dead as we know it. Am 60 yr old white woman living in a red state and I am telling you Obama is going to win. He acts and looks presidential. All you have to do is see how McCain behaved this past week and see how Obama came off. Even if you are a republican you must admit that McCain came off as old, confused and mad. Obama came off calm and thoughtful and not making any rush decisions. This republican party has put us in this mess.
Southern Yankee woman, what do you know about the southern heart. 1/3 of the Democrats will not vote for Obama according to the poll because they view Blacks negatively. The identity politics within the Democratic party will result in Obama's defeat.
The Stanford study didn't say they wouldn't vote for Obama, only that they viewed blacks negatively. I am confident that many of those same Democrats view McCain negatively. Just because 1/3 of them admit to racist feelings doesn't mean they will vote against their what is in their best interests.
Evan Bayh was not Indiana's governor in 1984, Robert Orr was. The House took the case because McIntyre had been awarded a sham certificate by the partisan Republican Secretary of State Ed Simcox, who had certified McIntyre after one county had been recounted. The House ordered a separate recount conducted by GAO professionals because thousands of votes mostly cast by African American voters had been tossed out during Indiana's state recount for technical and bogus reasons. The House recount counted all legal votes and McCloskey, the Democrat, won.
Evan Bayh was not Indiana's governor in 1984, Robert Orr was.
You're absolutely right about that.
The rest of your story is no less than you'd expect from someone as partisan as a Senior Advisor to the Democratic campaign for Indiana governor this year.
"Democrats play fair when they've got the reins of power. Republicans cheat."
Gimme a break.
There's are reasons I bailed on the Democratic party a few years back, and their willingness to shade a story just as much as the Repubs do was definitely part of it.
BTW: Since ballots are cast anonymously, how does one determine if it was cast by a Black voter, one born in Turkey, or for that matter a Martian??
Or do we just make an arbitrary assumption about their ancestry to make our opponents look as bad as possible?
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