If the election were held today, President Obama would win more than 52 percent of the popular vote, an increase that could be attributed to the release of Mitt Romney's "47 percent" video, according to political calculus done by Nate Silver of The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight blog.

Silver charted our Romney video, along with three other events he considers the most important political news of the last month: the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, and the attack on the US Consulate in Libya. His conclusion:

By Sept. 17, the date when the video of Mr. Romney’s remarks was released and received widespread attention, the momentum from Mr. Obama’s convention appeared to have stalled (although not necessarily reversed itself). Mr. Obama led in the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points on that date, according to the "now-cast." Since then, however, Mr. Obama has gained further ground in the polls. As of Thursday, he led in the popular vote by 5.7 percentage points in the "now-cast," a gain of 1.6 percentage points since Mr. Romney’s remarks became known to the public.

Silver's chart, below, does not include the effect of the national conventions or economic trends, which makes it useful for looking at the isolated impact of the Romney videos on the 2012 presidential election. Nate Silver, The New York TimesNate Silver, The New York TimesOver the coming weeks, political pundits will likely be interested in seeing an updated version of this chart, as Romney continues to feel the aftershocks of his remarks. 

Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin is under fire this week for saying his Democratic opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill, is not "ladylike," for comparing children's health insurance to the Titanic, and for alleging that the National Defense Authorization Act legalizes bestiality. So, kind of a typical week for him.

But this, from Akin's pollster Kellyanne Conway in an interview with the Family Research Council, may just take the cake. In attempting to explain Akin's resilience, Conway pulls up an odd analogy: the 1993 siege of the Branch Davidian cult compound in Waco, Texas:

I've expressed this to Todd as my client for a while now, I’ve expressed it to him directly—the first day or two where it was like the Waco with David Koresh situation where they’re trying to smoke him out with the SWAT teams and the helicopters and the bad Nancy Sinatra records. Then here comes day two and you realize the guy's not coming out of the bunker. Listen, Todd has shown his principle to the voters.

Sure, Todd Akin is a crazy cult leader. But he's our crazy cult leader.

(h/t Right Wing Watch)

Viewer beware.

A long shot Kentucky House candidate with deep ties to a radical anti-abortion leader is broadcasting a campaign ad like no other: It purports to show images of dismembered fetuses and murdered Jews and Christians while comparing President Barack Obama to Adolf Hitler and mass-murderer Ted Bundy. The ad touts the candidacy of the long-haired self-described tea partier Andrew Beacham, who is running as an independent against Republican Rep. Brett Guthrie in Kentucky's 2nd District.

The New York Times reports:

[The ad] opens with images of Hitler and Bundy as the candidate narrates. "Would you vote for a murderer?" he asks. "Would you vote for a man who paid others to murder for him? Would you vote for a man who stole from others to pay for his murders?"
Then a picture of an aborted fetus appears on screen. The candidate continues, "Well, Obama gives your money to Planned Parenthood to murder babies, and to the Muslim Brotherhood, who murders Christians and Jews."

Beacham is a longtime guerrilla-theater disciple of anti-abortion activist Randall Terry, whose strategy involves running for office and getting other people to run for office so that they can exploit loophole in the Federal Communications Commission's indecency regulations. As my colleague Tim Murphy has reported, the loophole allows candidates to run graphic political ads that would otherwise be banned by the FCC.

Terry, who ran this year for president as a Democrat (and is still running as a no-chance independent for Congress in Florida's 20th District), says the candidates he's enlisted will spend between $250,000 and $1 million to run ads in seven races, according to the AP.

Possibly the weirdest part of Beacham's ad—aside from the viscera and disregard for Godwin's Lawis the candidate himself, wearing an undersized mesh cowboy hat and puffing on a cigar. "If you vote for Obama, the real question is what are you smoking?" he asks, before blowing smoke into the camera.

Full video (warning—contains extremely graphic images):

On Thursday evening, Anahita Nemat, a conservative PR specialist living in Northern Virginia, tweeted out this photo, with the description: "Received my first mailer from @MittRomney & @PaulRyanVP today. It talks about Lyme Disease. Huh? I'm confused! Why?"


We were confused too. But it turns out that Romney has, over the last few months, actually made Lyme disease—the bacterial disease transmitted to humans from deer ticks—part of his pitch to suburban Virginia voters. It started back in August, when he sent a public letter (paid for by the campaign) to Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.) commending him for his push to create a "Tick-Borne Diseases Advisory Committee." "More needs to be done," Romney wrote. "As president, I will work to ensure that more attention is focused on this important issue ... We need to ensure that all scientific viewpoints concerning this illness can be heard."



Incidentally, the letter, which was sent out on August 4th, wasn't picked up by the press until this Thursday, when the Washington Examiner reported on it as part of a "bid for worried moms in the outer suburbs populated with whitetail deer and other wildlife."

As it turns out, Romney is actually injecting himself into an intense dispute within the medical community, pitting the International Lyme and Associated Diseases Society (ILADS) against the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA). IDSA believes there is "no convincing biological evidence" that Lyme is a chronic infection, while ILADS thinks there are flaws with the current testing system. Wolf and Smith have aligned themselves with ILADS, which is reflected in their bill and other public statements.

Here's the problem, though. That Lyme disease epidemic Romney is so concerned about? The spread of the disease is aided and abetted by climate change. Lyme Disease already costs the US $2.5 billion annually, is expected to double in geographic scope over the next 70 years. But Romney has said government should do nothing to stop man-made climate change—if it's even happening at all. "My view is that we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet," he said at a debate last October. "And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2 emissions is not the right course for us."

I won't pretend that I know exactly what the Romney campaign is doing here, except to note that it's tough to micro-target any deeper than a mailer talking about ticks. An obscure subsection of Virginia law requires that I ask University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato about all such Old Dominion issues, but in an email, the campaign guru professed ignorance: "VA is home to some Lyme disease, but I would never have guessed that it was a presidential level issue!"

Perhaps the campaign has some data that shows that this kind of targeted mailing will drive up his favorables among, say, middle class, politically moderate moms who like to hike. Or maybe they're just trying to get under Obama's skin.

Update: The Weekly Standard's John McCormack has the full mailer.

Find an unusual political pamphlet in your mailbox? Give us a shout: tmurphy [at] motherjones [dot] com.

On Friday morning, Mother Jones briefly published a story containing details about liberal financier George Soros' decision to donate $1 million to the pro-Obama super-PAC Priorities USA Action, and $500,000 to two other super-PACs focusing on House and Senate races. The story was based on information provided by a source; the source contacted us after the story was published and said the information was incorrect. We have removed the story.

U.S. Army Cpl. Daniel Thornton, a security force member of Provincial Reconstruction Team Farah, pulls security during a mission to the director of information and culture's office in Farah City, Farah province, Afghanistan, Sept. 25. U.S. Army photo.

UPDATED October 10, 2012, 1:00PM EDT:

In a surprising turn of events during the Pussy Riot appeal trial today, one of the band members was set free, while the two-year sentences of the other two were upheld by the Moscow City Court.

The court reaffirmed the guilty verdict against all three women on charges of "hooliganism motivated by religious hatred," but freed Yekaterina Samutsevich. The three-judge panel accepted the argument by her newly hired lawyer, Irina V. Khrunova, that her role in the church protest was not parallel to that of the other two women, because she was seized and taken out of the cathedral before she had time to sing or jump around, according to the New York Times.

As the Times reports, however, the court failed to address the procedural problems with the initial trial:

The judges did not address the numerous concerns that the women and their defense lawyers raised in August — what they called the arbitrary disqualification of defense witnesses, the testimony by so-called victims who were not in the cathedral for the Pussy Riot stunt, the bizarre conflation of alleged moral offenses and violations of the state penal code.

Putin said the three women "got what they asked for," in a documentary that aired on Sunday.

The other two band members, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, and Maria Alyokhina, are headed to prison colonies, but their lawyers will continue to appeal, according to the Times, which also notes that the verdict is sure to "intensify, rather than quiet, any debate."

In a speech during the trial Tolokonnikova predicted the fallout from the Pussy Riot case in wider society: "What is happening now, what is happening during the third Putin presidential term — it unfortunately leads to growing instability," she said. "I will go away for one and a half years, and a civil war will erupt in the country, because Putin is doing everything to achieve it."

Here is blow-by-blow live text coverage of the trial from the Russian Legal Information Agency.


UPDATED October 1, 2012, 2:00PM EDT:

Pussy Riot's appeal trial, which was scheduled for today, has been postponed until October 10, after one of the women requested a new defense lawyer. The AP reports:

As the hearing began Monday, band member Yekaterina Samutsevich unexpectedly announced that she has fired her three lawyers over an unspecified disagreement. Samutsevich said she had found another lawyer but had not yet signed a contract. Her fellow band members said they supported Samutsevich's choice but would still retain the services of their lawyers.

Olga Mefodyeva, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies, told the AP the decision may be a way to draw waning international attention to the trial again.

Pyotr Verzilov, the husband of band member Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, downplayed the move. The defense team says the women are "under tremendous pressure, with the government threatening to take away their children," and Verzilov says Samutsevich's decision "was simply caused by a change of mood," according to the AP.


The riot grrrls who walked into Christ the Savior cathedral on February 21st, screamed, danced and asked the Virgin Mary to “put Putin away,” are now locked up in a medieval castle-style detention center in Moscow. Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, Maria Alyokhina, and Yekaterina Samutsevich were sentenced to two years in prison on August 17 on charges of "hooliganism motivated by religious hatred” for their performance protest. An appeals trial is scheduled for October 1st, but no one is holding their breath. Instead, the Pussy Riot team is turning to the international community to try and put pressure on Putin.

The whole world, including Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev and Russian Human Rights Commissioner Vladimir Lukin, has condemned the absurd sentence. But that doesn’t matter, says Mark Feygin, one of the Pussy Riot defense attorneys, since, as Mother Jones' Sydney Brownstone reported, the verdict was basically phoned in by Putin. In court on Monday, the lawyers will point to the breaches of law that occured in Pussy Riot's initial trial, including barring key witnesses and experts from testifying and preventing defense lawyers from having confidential discussions with the three band members. Alisa Obraztsova, a legal assistant for the defense team, says the court may reduce the sentence by a few months, "just to show that the appeal is working. But we cannot be sure even in this."

With six weeks until Election Day and Barack Obama's polling advantage holding steady, a new narrative is emerging about the first presidential election of the super-PAC era. It goes something like this: All the hue and cry about outside interests buying the election has been misguided; in fact, about the only thing super-PACs have been good for is blowing their rich backers' money. "A summer of vast campaign spending and dark warnings about sinister, secret donors is on the verge of being replaced by a fall in which rich men spend a lot of time explaining to their wives why they wasted millions of dollars," Buzzfeed's Ben Smith wrote last week. In July, the New York Times' Matt Bai made a similar case that the impact of the Citizens United decision that made super-PACs possible had been overstated.

We won't know the full story until after the election, but it's too early to completely write off super-PACs. A few reasons why:

1) Super-PACs may have helped keep Romney in the game: The Obama campaign has raised $150 million more than Romney's. However, the $143 million already spent by outside groups opposing Obama has tilted the money game in Romney's favor. "We helped leave this race a statistical dead heat," Steven Law, president of Karl Rove's American Crossroads super-PAC, told the Wall Street Journal. "Obama has gotten almost nothing for all the money his campaign has invested." Likewise, Gary Bauer, the former GOP presidential candidate who runs the anti-gay marriage super-PAC Campaign for American Values, told the Journal, "If Romney didn't have the help from the outside groups that he's had, this race would be over."

However, this reliance on super-PACs could also hurt Romney. Campaigns and super-PACs aren't allowed to coordinate (at least not too obviously), which can make message discipline tough. The Romney campaign "has to guess at what it thinks other people are going to say and where they are going to say it, and then has to deploy its resources where it thinks there will be gaps, and that's a hard guessing game to play," Brad Todd, a GOP ad man, told the Los Angeles Times. And as Romney's fortunes wane, groups like American Crossroads appear ready to shift more resources to down-ballot candidates, and could withdraw their support for him altogether—what Washington Post's Ezra Klein calls "Romney's nightmare scenario."

2) Super-PACs have amplified megadonors' influence: Wealthy donors love to get up close and personal behind closed doors with the politicians they fund, as our reporting on the Koch brothers' secret confabs and Mitt Romney's 47 percent gaffe show. Super-PACs have given this elite group a new avenue for catching lawmakers' attention. As casino magnate Sheldon Adelson told Politico, "I don't believe one person should influence an election. So, I suppose you'll ask me, 'How come I'm doing it?' Because other single people influence elections."

As Bai noted, superdonors already had ways to write big checks before Citizens United. Yet unlike 527 groups, super-PACs can advocate for specific candidates, and there's little chance that candidates are ignoring the donors using super-PACs to sidestep limits on campaign donations. And even after the election, super-PACs will remain on the scene to infuence policy and politicians' votes. They're already getting into the lobbying game.

On the other hand, megadonors aren't exactly expert strategists. No one has made this more clear than Adelson himself, who along with his wife Miriam has poured $36 million into super-PACs—including $10 million to Newt Gingrich as his primary campaign was imploding. Money may guarantee that a donor's voice is heard, but money can't always save a loser.

3) Super-PACs are shaking up state races: Even those who argue that the impact of Citizens United has been overstated, like Bai, have pointed to congressional races as an exception. Super-PACs like the antitax Club for Growth Action have poured millions into state races, from Arizona to Wisconsin, typically influencing the outcome. In Texas, a 21-year-old millionaire helped a Rand Paul-backed House candidate win his GOP primary. And super-PACs aren't limited to spending on federal races: Rich out-of-state donors helped push its total cost of June's recall election in Wisconsin beyond $60 million.

4) Super-PACs are flooding the airwaves: Analysts predict that more than $3 billion will be spent on political ads in this election cycle (including twice what was spent in 2008 on cable ads). According to a recent Sunlight Foundation study, Citizens United is directly responsible for 78 percent of spending from outside groups this election.

5) Dark money still matters: Even if super-PACs have been overhyped, there's still no denying that outside money is playing a bigger role than ever before in this election. That's especially true when you figure in 501(c) "social welfare" nonprofits, which have spent more money on ads than super-PACs. We may not appreciate their influence until the election is over. As the IRS has gotten more aggressive in determining whether 501(c)s have violated their tax-exempt status, the groups have become more adept at skirting new rules to keep toothless regulators at bay. And if that trend continues, reformers predict, outside spending in the future will dwarf 2012's numbers.

A quick look at the week that was in the world of political dark money...

the money shot



"The scarcity of honest information about the misleading political ads invading our airwaves has knocked viewers and voters for a loss."
—A new report from the media reform group Free Press, criticizing local TV stations in swing states for failing to report on the influence of outside-spending groups. According to Free Press's research, more than 85 percent of ads from outside spending groups relay misleading information, yet swing-state stations "devoted little to no air time to fact-checking claims made in the ads, and the stations spent no time investigating the organizations that paid for the ads."



Karl Rove's dark-money nonprofit Crossroads GPS has entered the Massachusetts Senate fight between Democrat Elizabeth Warren and incumbent Republican Scott Brown with robocalls attacking Warren. The state's Democratic Party obtained audio (below) of one of the calls, which hits Warren for supporting Obamacare, misleadingly claiming that the program "will cut over $700 billion from Medicare spending." Another call criticizes the work Warren did as head of the watchdog panel overseeing the federal government's bank bailouts.



$1.5 million: Billionaire philanthropist George Soros has committed $1.5 million to liberal super-PACs—$1 million to the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action and $500,000 total to two groups focused on congressional races. Previously, the right's favorite big-money bogeyman gave $1 million to the American Bridge super-PAC, $175,000 to House Majority PAC, and $75,000 to Majority PAC. After his previous donations, Soros had hinted that he might not give to Priorities.



In August, for the first time this year, liberal super-PACs outraised their conservative counterparts. Liberal super-PACs took in $19.7 million compared to conservative super-PACs' $18.3 million. All told, super-PACs have raised $390.6 million during the 2012 election cycle.




David Corn's Reddit AMA: The Full Questions and Answers: MoJo's DC bureau chief, who broke the Mitt Romney donor-video story, met the 'net Friday afternoon.
• The Koch-affiliated dark-money group Americans for Prosperity struggles to turn out voters despite all its cash. Slate
• Super-PACs get into the lobbying business. Politico
• Billionaire George Soros drops another $2 million into Democratic super-PACs. New York Times
• Former presidential candidates' "ghost PACS" sputter on. Center for Responsive Politics
• Take part in a collaborative effort to reveal political TV ad spending. ProPublica

The latest Mitt Romney video released by Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn doesn't address the "47 percent," but it does reveal some uncomfortable truths about how the GOP candidate viewed his role at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he founded.

Speaking in 1985 at the 20th anniversary of Bain & Company, a young Romney said: "Bain Capital is an investment partnership which was formed to invest in startup companies and ongoing companies, then to take an active hand in managing them and hopefully, five to eight years later, to harvest them at a significant profit."

In two minutes, Corn breaks down exactly why Romney's top priority at Bain wasn't creating jobs or building strong companies. He also raises the question: What makes Romney qualified to do so now as a potential president?

Have an issue or a MoJo reporter you would like us to spend two minutes with? Drop us an email at dliebelson@motherjones.com.

Music by: Mike Smirnoff