Political MoJo

The Fitzgerald Investigation: what next?

| Fri Oct. 28, 2005 4:35 PM PDT

Just posted at Mother Jones:

Smoking Guns and Red Herrings
By Elizabeth de la Vega

What should we expect now that Libby has been indicted?

Plus:

Teaching Our Kids in a 21st Century Economy
By Barack Obama

It's past time to transform an educational culture that's failing too many of our children.

Focusing on the Wrong Number
By Carl Robichaud, The Century Foundation

The figure of 2,000 U.S. soldiers dead in Iraq clouds our understanding of the war's full impact.

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Nuclear Winter Averted

| Fri Oct. 28, 2005 1:42 PM PDT

I'm not sure I buy the theory that the Bush administration has been weakened beyond all repair thanks to the botched Miers nomination, Fitzgerald's investigation, the Katrina response, and whatever else. The Republican Party's capacity for harm and destruction is near-infinite, and only an election that sweeps them out of power will ever stop that. Nevertheless, in a bit of surprisingly good news this week, the administration decided to back down from pursuing "bunker buster" nuclear weapons. These weapons are, by all accounts, frivolous—bunker busting can be done perfectly adequately using conventional weapons, as the administration is now admitting—and only lowers the bar for the use of nuclear weapons. Compared to Libby's fibs, this was a very big deal, and whether a sign that Bush if flailing or not, it's very good news that the opposition carried the day.

Back to World Domination for Rove?

| Fri Oct. 28, 2005 1:39 PM PDT

So is Rove off scot-free? No indictments, no nothing. Can he go back to plotting whatever it is he plots? Maybe not. Andrew Sullivan is making sense: "[I]t seems to me to be a pretty horrible scenario for the president. You have Libby indicted and Cheney thereby under suspicion, with a raft of potential questions heading his way; and you have Rove still under threat from the Grand Jury, fighting for his legal and political life, but required to stay mum (and understandably distracted) if the prosecution continues. You don't even get a clean break, and a chance to start over." The investigation's not over yet. The other day Paul Begala described what it's like to be in a White House under siege; doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun.

Libby Just a Cog

| Fri Oct. 28, 2005 1:20 PM PDT

No doubt everyone's been opening their Fitzmas presents, and looking at Scooter Libby's perjury/false statements/obstruction of justice indictments. So it looks like we have the first indictment of a sitting White House official in over 130 years—the nation should be truly proud of our "honor and integrity" administration. In the meantime, though, via MyDD, here's a Washington Post profile of David Addington, the man now rumored to replace Libby as Dick Cheney's chief of staff:

Where there has been controversy over the past four years, there has often been Addington. He was a principal author of the White House memo justifying torture of terrorism suspects. He was a prime advocate of arguments supporting the holding of terrorism suspects without access to courts.

Addington also led the fight with Congress and environmentalists over access to information about corporations that advised the White House on energy policy. He was instrumental in the series of fights with the Sept. 11 commission and its requests for information…

Colleagues say Addington stands out for his devotion to secrecy in an administration noted for its confidentiality….

Even in a White House known for its dedication to conservative philosophy, Addington is known as an ideologue, an adherent of an obscure philosophy called the unitary executive theory that favors an extraordinarily powerful president….

Addington's influence -- like Cheney's overall -- extends throughout the government in his bid to expand executive power. He goes through every page of the federal budget in search of riders that could restrict executive authority. He meets daily with White House counsel Alberto R. Gonzales and often raises objections to requests for information from Congress or the public, officials say. He also routinely works to defeat proposals from the State Department, where the pervasive internationalist philosophy is at odds with Cheney's neoconservatism.Out with the old, in with the new; the machine will keep purring along. Meanwhile, Billmon has some good questions about the indictment. All the circumstantial evidence points to the fact that Libby knew Valerie Plame was covert when he outed her, and we probably shouldn't retire the word "conspiracy" from the PlameGate dictionary just yet. Nor, for that matter, the phrase "presidential pardon."

ANWR Drilling Closer to Passage

Fri Oct. 28, 2005 9:55 AM PDT

In July Kaarle Strailey, a lanky 24-year-old Berkeley graduate and friend of mine, biked 240 miles along the single access road to the Alaskan arctic and then hiked through the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in an effort to draw media attention to the imminent threat of oil-drilling in the area. He then traveled to Washington, DC, where he joined hundreds of other activists in a flurry of last-ditch lobbying to convince moderate Republicans in Congress to vote against ANWR drilling. The oil lobby has been pushing for drilling since the 1980s, but it has never come so close to succeeding as now. And, with supportive majorities in both Houses and a president who has placed ANWR drilling at the center of his energy plan, pro-drilling lobbyists are hardly even breaking a sweat.

On Wednesday, the House Resources Committee stuffed legislation that would lease ANWR land to oil companies and end a 24-year old moratorium on offshore drilling, into the $34.7 billion federal budget reconciliation bill. Last week the Senate Energy and Commerce Committee had passed a similar bill, although the committee chairman thinks the offshore part will get cut out. By squeezing the language into the reconciliation bill, the legislation will be immune from the Democratic filibuster that has so far kept Arctic drilling at bay.

A bill to open ANWR hasn't passed both floors of the Congress since the Clinton years, when it died under presidential veto. Though Arctic drilling idea was dropped from the energy bill passed earlier this year, it was explicitly kept in the FY2006 budget resolution by a narrow vote. Since then the House votes approving Arctic drilling have been continually squelched by the Senate. so the Senate's recent shift in opinion has sent preservationists of the so-called American Serengeti—the last stretch of untouched wilderness in the U.S.—scrambling.

Rep. Markey, one of the Democrats on the House Resources Committee taking a lead in attacking the bill, released a press release yesterday after his proposed amendment to strike the ANWR drilling provision from the budget was defeated:

So the choice comes down to this - do we raise $2.4 billion by prying open and forever destroying a national wildlife refuge, overturning forty years of established environmental policy, threatening the way of life of the Gwich'in peoples, and allowing the oil and gas industry to select any of our other 544 national wildlife refuges as their next target, or do we give the Secretary the discretion to raise by a tiny fraction the royalty rate paid by the wealthiest corporations in the world for producing oil on the public's land? This is simply a question of whether we would rather protect public land or big oil companies.

ANWR's pristine and contested 1002 area—1.5 million acres on Alaska's northeast coast—is the migratory birthing ground for the Porcupine River caribou herd, upon which the hunting and cultural traditions of the native Gwich'in tribe depend. Not to be all doom and gloom, but really, with the support of the Senate budget committee, the President's support in pocket, and a House that has repeatedly voted in favor of drilling, these could be the last moments before the end. The only hope for ANWR may come when the budget bill comes back to the full Senate for a vote after reconciliation. At that point, moderate Republicans may—possibly—disagree on various spending cuts and help to throw out the budget altogether.

Oil companies say that ANWR drilling will relieve pressure on gas prices and help businesses, but in truth, it won't make a dent of difference for another decade and will only marginally alleviate America's foreign-oil dependence. (Here's the MoJo exclusive on the new wave of American revivalism: Petroltheism.) As one oil exec admitted to Paul Roberts last year, "even if all the off-limits land were opened for drilling, all the new gas we could bring on-line wouldn't be enough to replace all the production we're losing from older fields. We'd barely keep production flat."

Wal-Mart's Strategy

| Thu Oct. 27, 2005 2:22 PM PDT

In the New Republic today, Clay Risen has a good analysis of the Wal-Mart memo—describing ways to reduce the company might reduce its health care costs while appearing to care more about its workers—that surfaced yesterday:

The memo is the result of a study carried out in coordination with McKinsey, the elite consulting firm--and it shows in its fantastic grasp of [Wal-Mart's] numbers and abysmal conception of the workers who make them possible. One proposal would replace the current 401(k) program, into which the company puts a fixed percentage of the employee's wage, with a matching program, in which the company's contribution is equal to the employee's (this on top of the proposed cut in company contributions, from 4 percent to 3 percent). From a cost-savings point of view, this is a brutally efficient strategy--after all, the average Wal-Mart employee makes $17,500 a year. How many are going to set aside 3 percent of that for retirement? What's amazing, though, is that the memo's author, Susan Chambers, seems to believe that employees would actually like this reduction in benefits, because, for those who can somehow afford to take full advantage, it "would help Associates better prepare for retirement."

 

Then there is the proposal to shift all employees into health-savings plans, replacing traditional insurance with tax-free bank accounts in which both employees and the company set aside money; they then use that money to pay for doctor visits, prescriptions, and so on. Again, from a coldly rational point of view, this makes certain sense: The more financial responsibility employees bear in their health-care costs, the less they are likely to spend. The problem is that, again, poorly paid employees are unlikely to make the sort of contributions necessary to cover expenses. Moreover, it's much easier for the company to quietly adjust its own contributions to employee health downward, a fact sneakily acknowledged by the memo (though instead of proposing a check it merely recommends more p.r.: "Wal-Mart will have to be sophisticated and forceful in communicating this change").

That's the crux of it: Wal-Mart will use some nifty gimmicks to slash its workers' health and retirement benefits and then just pretend that this counts as an improvement. Ultimately, of course, this won't work. Wal-Mart's critics have bullshit detectors like few other groups of people on the planet, and always, always, always assume the worst about the store. The company will never appease its "well-funded and well-organized" attackers until it actually starts offering substantial benefits for workers. Although, do note, Wal-Mart executives are probably paranoid that the critics want to destroy the company altogether, rather than merely improve the lives of its workers, so maybe Wal-Mart thinks that there are no steps ever worth taking—because its enemies will never be appeased. Surely it doesn't help when lunatic lefties start writing posts like "Abolish the Corporation," either.

 

Alternatively, of course, Wal-Mart could solve its problems by lobbying for some sort of government-run health insurance, which would relieve the company of the burden of covering workers in the first place. It probably will end up doing this, although it won't lobby for single-payer, but rather the GOP's plans for government-financed Health Savings Accounts, high-deductible insurance, and tax credits, along with a phase-out of the employer-health deduction; two steps that I think would be awful for actual people, but would let Wal-Mart and other big companies wash their hands of handling health insurance without having to pay taxes for some sort of single-payer system.

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Genocide on the Increase

| Thu Oct. 27, 2005 12:32 PM PDT

Eric Reeves has a new report on Darfur with a simple conclusion:

[T]here is no possible escape from the most basic truth in Darfur: Khartoum's National Islamic Front, ever more dominant in the new "Government of National Unity," is deliberately escalating the level of violence and insecurity as a form of "counter-insurgency" warfare, with the clear goal of accelerating human destruction among the African tribal populations of the region.

In failing to respond to this conspicuous and now fully articulated truth, the world is yet again knowingly acquiescing in genocide. But as the shadows of Auschwitz and Treblinka, Bosnia, Cambodia, and Rwanda fall more heavily over Darfur, we cannot evade this most shameful truth: we know---as events steadily, remorselessly unfold---more about the realities of ethnically-targeted human destruction in Darfur than on any other previous such occasion in history. So much the greater is our moral disgrace.The international silence over Darfur isn't restricted to any one particular country—Europe has always tolerated genocide, while China would rather do oil business in Sudan than worry about the killings; no one looks good here—but the United States' role deserves a close look as well. In the New Republic today, Reeves has a piece on the Bush administration's appeasement of the National Islamic Front genocidaires in Khartoum, especially its cooperation over counterterrorism issues. (Not to mention the fact that the State Department explicitly waived longstanding U.S. sanctions on Sudan to allow the NIF to hire an American public relations firm. Boost its image and all. Cute.) The closing grafs:

[T]his strategy of appeasement misunderstands the psychology of the NIF's leaders. Their track record suggests that the more weakness they sense from the international community, the more emboldened they become--in both Dafur and southern Sudan. Hence, it is probably no coincidence that the Bush administration's recent conciliatory gestures towards Khartoum have yielded such counterproductive results.

To America's credit, it has made substantial contributions of aid to humanitarian efforts in Sudan; and there is no question that the U.S. has been the most generous donor nation, even as other wealthy countries such as France, Japan, and the oil-producing Arab countries have been disgracefully stingy. But charity alone will not produce peace in Sudan; force (diplomatic and perhaps military too) will be needed as well. As long as our appeasement of Khartoum continues, the genocide will go on. "Not on my watch"? Not even close.

What "Middle Course" on Iraq?

| Thu Oct. 27, 2005 12:10 PM PDT

I see John Kerry is now calling for the U.S. to start withdrawing troops from Iraq based on a timetable. Or "benchmarks." Or whatever it is. One strategist says that "phased withdrawal" is the new consensus; a balance "between anti-war activists who want an immediate pullout and Bush's stay-the-course policy." Eh, this middle course is kind of a charade. Iraq is on one of two possible trajectories right now—either the situation is such that the military can make a difference by muddling through and stabilizing the country; or it's all about to implode and there's nothing we can do to stop it. If it's going to implode no matter what, then we get out as soon as humanly possible. No timetables. No benchmarks. Just. Go. Do what you need to do to get out—make sure, for instance, that the soldiers have enough force protection to withdraw without a bloodbath—and leave immediately. Not one cent more or one more dead soldier for a hopeless situation.

The main argument for Kerry-style "benchmarks"—i.e., withdrawing slowly based on an artificial timeline—is that somehow a gradual withdrawal will "undermine the insurgency," as Kerry says, by peeling off Sunni nationalists from the extremist al-Qaeda types. Well, maybe, maybe not. At this point we just don't know if the insurgency will stay together long enough to kill off the new government or what once we start leaving. Maybe the strange Baathist-Islamist alliance will only crumble long after the Sunni-Shiite civil war ends. Nor is there any reason to believe that a gradual withdrawal will "frighten" Iraq's leaders into taking security seriously and compromising with each other. Maybe it will, but at this point, I wouldn't pretend to predict how Iraqis will react to our moves. Maybe if they see that we're drawing down on a schedule, all the different factions will lock and load and get ready for what they see as the coming civil war, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The final argument for Kerry's "benchmark" approach is that withdrawal based on an artificial calendar will somehow motivate the Iraqi National Army into fighting for themselves rather than relying on U.S. protection. That's insane; the U.S. tried the same thing with Iraqi troops in Mosul in 2004—letting the Army stand up for itself without help—and insurgents quickly overran the city. The Iraqi Army is unmotivated primarily because they don't have a legitimate government worth fighting or dying for, not because we're sticking around for too long. Badr militiamen will fight for Shiite fundamentalism; not a bumbling "democratic" National Assembly. Kurdish peshmerga will fight for Kurdistan, not an artificial multiethnic country. And so on. That problem won't change if we announce that we're leaving, and they're going to have to stand up as we stand down.

If the U.S. starts withdrawing based on artificial "benchmarks," and suddenly something goes horribly wrong, it's not like it can realistically send more troops back in. The backlash would be immense. On the substance, then, this so-called "middle position" Kerry's trying to chart is meaningless, although I can see why he's making it for political reasons—he doesn't want to stay in Iraq, but he doesn't want to seem like a far lefty, either. Well, that's him, he's a politician. I think there are three options: 1) Either stay the course, aim for stability, and don't announce any timetables (and hope we actually have enough troops to stay the course; 2) aim for Yemen-style "managed chaos" in Iraq by bolstering the militias and letting them keep order; or 3) get out immediately, and stop causing needless deaths, because Iraq is hopeless, and nothing we do can make any difference, now or ever.

Miers Withdraws

| Thu Oct. 27, 2005 11:12 AM PDT

Not much to say about Harriet Miers' withdrawal today. She would have been a terrible Justice, very likely to have helped hand the president far more executive power than is really a good idea. The main question, of course, is who comes next. The main danger will be that it's an equally terrible judge, from a substantive viewpoint, who just so happens to have "qualifications," and he or she ends up sailing through the Senate.

"Is southern Iraq only hell with flies?"

| Tue Oct. 25, 2005 5:55 PM PDT

The British Prospect this month has an interesting article by a former deputy governor of two southern Shiite provinces in Iraq, Rory Stewart. Here's his description of the new Iraq—and for context, these are the most stable bits of the country:

Despite their intolerance and violent methods, the new politicians are often young technocrats with a confident and articulate programme of anti-corruption and economic development. Their religious beliefs can be an important moderating influence in Shia society. So too are wider mechanisms of social control, confidence and moral concern. Thousands of Shia have been killed by Sunni terrorists in Iraq but the Shia community has generally refused to retaliate. Restraint has been shown not only by Sistani but also by political leaders at a district level. The leaders I met on my last visit had stopped complaining that they were the victims of a Zionist plot and seemed realistic, tolerant and humorous about progress. They had begun to find the capacity to co-operate with each other and lay the foundations for government and security.

The new order in southern Iraq is, in short, hard to define. It is an improvement on the political exclusion and sadistic inhumanity of Saddam and has a great deal to teach the Sunni areas about prosperity, security and politics. But it is also reactionary, violent, intolerant towards women and religious minorities and uncooperative with the coalition. The new leaders have dark histories and dubious allies; they enforce a narrow social code and ignore the rural areas.

Southern Iraq is a democracy but we should not assume that this or any of the other terms which we deploy frequently about Iraq—insurgency, civil society, civil war, police force or even political party— mean what they do in Britain. There have been elections, but the government is not responsive to or respectful of human rights. In many ways it resembles Iran, but it is not governed by clerics. Its militias are not infiltrators, they are an integral element of the elected parties. The new government is oppressive, but has a popular mandate; it is supported by illegal militias, but it has improved security.It's a good piece all around, not much of a screed either way. From all accounts, meanwhile, the southern provinces are strongly anti-occupation (see also this poll)—they're grateful that the U.S. toppled Saddam's regime, but not much else—and would happily prefer to see American troops leave if not for concerns that the occupation is the only thing deterring a full-blown civil war in Iraq.