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July 22, 2006

People wishing to save embryos may need to rethink rhythm method

The August issue of Harper's features an excerpt from "The Rhythm Method and Embryonic Death," by Luc Bovens, published in the June issue of the Journal of Medical Ethics. In this paper, Professor Bovens argues that the rhythm method of birth control--the only method approved by the Catholic church--may be responsible for "massive embryonic death."

Couples who use the rhythm method try to avoid pregnancy by having sex during the time in which conception is the least likely to occur and during which there is lower ovum viability. As a consequence, they avoid pregnancy by avoiding conception, but they also because conceived ova have such a small chance of surviving. Says Bovens:

Nonetheless, one could argue that even if the mechanism has only limited effectiveness, it remains the case that millions of rhythm-method cycles per year globally depend for their success on massive embryonic death. Even a policy of practicing condom usage and having an abortion in case of failure would cause fewer embryonic deaths than the rhythm method.

July 21, 2006

Homeland security a problem in the U.K as well as the U.S.

A Mirror reporter successfully planted a fake "bomb" on a train carrying a cargo of nuclear waste, it was reported today.

"The gate was open, there were no security guards...I walked up to the train and planted my bomb," the reporter said. The train, which goes from Kent to Cumbria, carries radioactive flasks of spent uranium fuel rods. The Mirror reporter said that the train was left unattended for about ten mintues, and that he was able to approach the wagons in daylight while the driver was on a break. He also said he had observed the train for a couple of months, and that there was continual opportunity to sabotage it.

A nuclear transport expert estimates that 8,000 would be instantly killed if a real bomb were planted on the train.

Wearing an orange vest and helmet, the Mirror reporter made his tenth in a series of trips to the depot, where his presence was never questioned. A photographer took several photographs. A spokeswoman for Direct Rail Services said that "The entire journey is protected by very stringent security."

Prom Date in Columbine

Want some truly creepy reading to throw off your weekend? Check out, via Slate, this love letter written by Columbine school shooter Dylan Klebold to the girl he went to the prom with. Choice excerpts: "Fate put me in need of you, but this world blocked that...I will go away soon, but I just had to write this to you, the one I truly loved...Unfortunately, even if you did like me the slightest bit, you would hate me if you knew who I was...I have nothing to live for...however, if it was true that you loved me as I do you, I would find a way to survive."

The Death Penalty in Japan

On the morning of 21 December 1995, [Kimura Shuji] went to visit her condemned son and was told that visiting hours were very busy and to come back at noon. When she returned, she was asked whether she wanted to take her son's body away for burial.

Welcome to death row in Japan. Prisoners are executed by hanging—a process known to produce "gruesome scenes of slow strangulation and even decapitation." And prisoners sitting on death row don't even know when they'll actually die. No one gives them a date. Prisoners aren't told "this day will be your last" until the actual morning of their execution, which can come at any time—days or months or decades after their appeals process is exhausted. Their families aren't notified until after they're dead. Everyone involved lives under the strain of uncertainty.

One prisoner, Oda Nobuo, exhausted his appeals process way back in 1970, and is still under sentence of death—meaning that he has had to wake up, in a solitary cell, every morning for nearly 40 years knowing that he could be executed that day without warning. One former prisoner describes how he was dragged out of his cell by guards one morning, before they whispered nervously that they had the wrong guy, put him back, and went to get some other guy for the hangman's noose. Oops. All of those stories come from a new Amnesty International report: "The Death Penalty in Japan."

Needless to say, spending decades on death row, without knowing when it will all end, is liable to make even the most level-headed inmate insane and suicidal. It's gratuitous torture of the worst sort. And that's doubly true in Japanese prisons, where death-row inmates are forced to live in solitary confinement, cut off from other prisoners and allowed only intermittent outside visits as well as two short periods a week to leave their cells for exercise. Not surprisingly, many prisoners develop mental health problems—although, since Japanese courts often find defendants with mental disabilities to be "mentally competent," many of those on death row where already mentally ill when they came in.

To say this is all quite horrifying seems inadequate. And lest anyone thinks that these prisoners are probably all guilty of sin and deserve what they get, note that Japanese courts convict a staggering 99 percent of those accused of crimes—the highest conviction rate in the developed world. The odds that innocent people are frequently sentenced to death are very, very high.

Indeed, the entire Japanese criminal "justice" system is geared towards speedy conviction. Under the daiyo kangoku system, Japanese police can interrogate suspects in police cells for up to 23 days before transferring them to prison. There are few rules regulating interrogations, and a suspects' access to a lawyer is extremely limited during this time. Amnesty has long documented how the police use beatings, intimidation, and sleep deprivation to extract "confessions" from suspects for crimes they haven't committed. In the 1980s four men were released from death row after it was revealed that they signed such confessions under torture, but even though there's no reason to think this was a special case, death-row pardons are extremely rare.

Here, meanwhile, is a 1998 Amnesty report about Japanese prison conditions for everyone else. Frankly, they're not much better. Prisoners are often beaten severely by guards for minor rule infractions (one such rule: "Avoid leaning against the bedding or sitting on it") and placed in special confinement cells where they're forced to kneel on the floor without moving for 10 hours a day over month-long periods. There are also special "protection cells" where prisoners are kept in handcuffs and tight restraints 24 hours a day—often without good reason. Not that American prisons are much better, but the Japanese may well have us beat on the cruel and unusual front.

Democrats On Israel: Mouths Closed, Eyes Shut

Good post by Marc Cooper on the crass political calculations driving the Democrats' Israel "policy."

Fact is, the Democrats' policy on Israel mirrors the Republican policy on Cuba. They both derive from primarily domestic political considerations and not from any measured analysis of foreign policy nor any deliberation on where our true national interests reside.
Republicans want to keep the Cuban-American voting base -- in Florida and New Jersey primarily-- inside the tent. So to hell with any notion of revising a policy toward Castro that has only, in effect, helped maintain his now 47 year long monopoly on power. (Happy 80th, Comandante).
Democrats, likewise, want to retain the majority of the Jewish-American vote and prefer, for the most part, to keep their mouths closed and their eyes shut when it comes to Israel. Cuban-Americans and Jewish-Americans are also important funding sources for both parties (Bill Clinton was actually able to raise tons from both communities, Hilary's borther-in-law being a major muckety-much within the right-wing exile milieu) and neither party wants to offend those who pay their bills. Here's "Speaker" Nancy Pelosi, a liberal darling, enthusiastically enlisting in the ranks of those pledging "unwavering support and committment" to Israel, urging the Bush administration to tighten the screws on Syria and Iran. How's that for an opposition leader?

Hence unconditional bipartisan indulgence of whatever Israel wants to do -- e.g. bomb Lebanon to rubble.

(He also has some interesting observations about where the lefty blogosphere is on all this--which is mostly AWOL.)

Bush to Poor: #&$@ Off!

As Michael A. Fletcher of the Washington Post reminds us, after Katrina (well, to be precise, weeks after Katrina), Bush talked a good game about ending poverty:

"All of us saw on television, there's . . . some deep, persistent poverty in this region," he said in a prime-time speech from New Orleans's Jackson Square, 17 days after the Aug. 29 hurricane. "That poverty has roots in a history of racial discrimination, which cut off generations from the opportunity of America. We have a duty to confront this poverty with bold action."
As it happened, poverty's turn in the presidential limelight was brief. Bush has talked little about the issue since the immediate crisis passed, while pursuing policies that his liberal critics say will hurt the poor. He has publicly mentioned domestic poverty six times since giving back-to-back speeches on the issue in September. Domestic poverty did not come up in his State of the Union address in January, and his most recent budget included no new initiatives directed at the poor.

Six times! Fletcher further notes:

Bush has used the bully pulpit of the presidency not to marshal a new national consensus for fighting poverty but to make the case for cutting taxes along with domestic programs. He has never publicly discussed the growing crisis of young, uneducated black men, whose plight has worsened in the past decade even as the economy has generally flourished, according to a recent spate of academic studies.
Meanwhile, his Office of Management and Budget has sketched scenarios that envision deep funding cuts in an array of programs that aid the poor, including housing assistance, food stamps, Medicaid, community development grants and energy assistance. Budget officials minimize the significance of those projections, saying that they are rarely enacted and that expenditures for many poverty programs have increased sharply since Bush took office.

"Does he often talk about poverty? No," [Press Secretary and former Fox News anchor Tony] Snow said. "There hasn't been a direct discussion of poverty, but he is focused on eliminating the barriers that stand in the way of people making progress."

And you know what that means, don’t you? Tax cuts. So once again, let me reiterate what I’ve written about and blogged about:

President Bush’s tax cuts, which were recently extended until 2010, save those earning between $20,000 and $30,000 an average of $10 a year, while those earning $1 million are saved $42,700.

Meanwhile, under his watch, the number of Americans living below the poverty line at any one time has steadily risen. Now 13% of all Americans—37 million—are officially poor. And currently, 46 million Americans are uninsured—a 15% increase since Bush came into office in 2000.

Bush has dedicated $750 million to “healthy marriages” by diverting funds from social services, mostly child-care. Bush has proposed cutting housing programs for low-income people with disabilities by 50%. I could go on and on.

And don’t think that it’s just the poor getting screwed. As Kevin Drum discusses over on his site, the middle-class are getting the shaft as well.

Meanwhile, in Iraq...

It's a nightmare:

Iraqi leaders have all but given up on holding the country together and, just two months after forming a national unity government, talk in private of "black days" of civil war ahead.

Signalling a dramatic abandonment of the U.S.-backed project for Iraq, there is even talk among them of pre-empting the worst bloodshed by agreeing to an east-west division of Baghdad into Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim zones, senior officials told Reuters

Tens of thousands have already fled homes on either side.

"Iraq as a political project is finished," one senior government official said -- anonymously because the coalition under Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki remains committed in public to the U.S.-sponsored constitution that preserves Iraq's unity.

So that's that. Prepare the body bags. Meanwhile, are some of the president's deep thoughts about the crisis in Lebanon:

President Bush's unwillingness to pressure Israel to halt its military campaign in Lebanon is rooted in a view of the Middle East conflict that is sharply different from that of his predecessors….

In the administration's view, the new conflict is not just a crisis to be managed. It is also an opportunity to seriously degrade a big threat in the region, just as Bush believes he is doing in Iraq. Israel's crippling of Hezbollah, officials also hope, would complete the work of building a functioning democracy in Lebanon and send a strong message to the Syrian and Iranian backers of Hezbollah.

Basically, we're all fucked. Maybe everyone really should start preparing for the rapture.

Attack of the Killer Jellyfish! (Yet Another Side Effect of Global Warming)

Later today, NPR has promised us an All Things Considered story on swarming jellyfish. Of late they’ve been a problem in Hawaii, North Carolina, and to Japan’s nuclear reactors:

A mass of jellyfish proved an unlikely thorn in the side of the Japanese nuclear industry this week when they choked a pipe, which feeds cooling water into a coastal plant.

The output from the Hamaoka reactors was slashed by 30 to 40% after the cooling system automatically shut down, returning to full power about three hours later once workers had cleared the jellyfish blockage. This was the first time jellyfish have affected power generation in Japan.

(We know where this leads.)

We here at Mother Jones have been obsessed with the attack of the killer (or at least really, really painful) jellies for the last several years, ever since we heard that in 2000, swarms of 25-pound jellyfish native to Australia invaded the Gulf of Mexico. So numerous were these Australian invaders, that the shrimp fishermen of the Gulf lost a lot of their harvest because the jellies weighed down their nets.

Jelly invasions appear to be yet another result of human-induced global climate change. (More instances of jellie invasions can be found here and here.) Changes to seawater’s salinity or Ph levels cause jellies and other species to migrate far beyond their historic range. And tropical storms and hurricanes, which are increasing in number and severity due to climate change, can also reroute the jellies, as just happened in the Carolinas. Also, one of the jellies’ main predators, turtles and tortoises, are being decimated, thanks to overfishing, pollution, and the like. (For more on all these issues see Julia Whitty’s piece on the fate of the ocean and the rest of our ocean package.)

According to this story, a new study out of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute reports that tiny jellyfish-like creatures called salps are helping get rid of some carbon dioxide by “transporting tons of it daily from the ocean surface to the deep sea and preventing it from re-entering the atmosphere and contributing again to the greenhouse effect and possibly to global warming.”

Which seems like great news, until you realize that way salps do this is by digesting huge amounts of phytoplankton, and as Whitty reports, these plankton, which are the foundation of all life in the sea, are also at risk from warming waters and changing salinity and Ph.

In other words, a potential check on global warming is being threatened by…global warming.

Reporters who didn't buy the WMD line

Over at Nieman Watchdog, Gilbert Cranberg says Knight Ridder's "DC bureau and Landay, Strobel, Walcott deserve high honors for their reports challenging the Bush administration during the build-up to the invasion of Iraq."

Amen.

Radicalism...in Switzerland!

I'm no expert in End Times and Rapture lore, but if anything portends the Apocalypse it's got to be this headline: In Neutral Switzerland, A Rising Radicalism. (And notice the flag. Right?) Can't you feel the glory bumps?

"When dealing with people like Bolton, there is no room for dialogue."

As Steve Clemons put it, the op-ed by George Voinovich in Thursday's Washington Post, calling for the confirmation of John Bolton as U.S. ambassador to the U.N., "blasts the door open"--meaning: this is going to get ugly.

Voinovich wrote: "I cannot imagine a worse message to send to the terrorists -- and to other nations deciding whether to engage in this effort -- than to drag out a possible renomination process or even replace the person our president has entrusted to lead our nation at the United Nations at a time when we are working on these historic objectives." --drawing the ire of The Century Foundation's Jeffrey Laurenti in a commentary just posted at Mother Jones.

[N]o one expected a renewed effort to legitimize the administration’s brash and polarizing ambassador to be wrapped in the mantle of combating Hezbollah and terrorists everywhere. Once again, its critics underestimated the chutzpah of the administration’s political operatives.

For which chutzpah, see...

In recent years the White House has compiled a notably tawdry track record of squeezing political advantage from death and destruction. The leveling of the World Trade Center by a handful of Saudi nationals armed with boxcutters became, in its skilled hands, the administration’s pretext for renouncing the antiballistic missile treaty, embarking on a crash program of “Star Wars” deployment, and launching an invasion of Iraq. Hurricane Katrina became an opportunity to abrogate union-scale wages on federal projects.

Meanwhile...

It is fair to say that no one has done more to isolate the United States in world councils than Mr. Bolton, who has virtually alone opposed, time and again, the path-breaking reform initiatives that have passed the U.N. since he arrived. He vociferously opposed the hard-won reform of U.N. human rights machinery, marshalling just three client states to vote with him against the new Human Rights Council.

Strongly indicating that...

Senators of both parties who are concerned about America’s shriveling global leadership should insist on full committee hearings about Mr. Bolton’s performance before allowing this nomination to move to a vote. And they should not shrink from sustained debate if they conclude, as most of the world concluded long ago, that America can do better in New York.

While we're on the subject, take a look at this MJ piece from a couple of years ago about the Brazilian diplomat Jose Bustani, whose ouster, in 2002, as director of the world's largest chemical weapons control group was orchestrated by the Bush administration hawks, especially Bolton. The piece quotes one wag as saying putting Bolton in charge of disarmament (at the State Department, where he worked before his recess appointment to the U.N.) was like letting "a pyromaniac have the run of a fireworks factory." And Bustani has this to say about his dismissal: "I...fell from grace with Washington. And when dealing with people like Bolton, there is no room for dialogue. You just have to go."

Compassionate Conservatism Declared Dead Six Years Too Late

The Washington Post notices that President Bush doesn't talk much about poverty anymore, hasn't actually done much about poverty during his tenure in office, and that basically his brand of "compassionate conservatism" is sort of a sham.

Well, no kidding. We didn't have to wait until this year to realize that. This should have been abundantly clear back in 2000. All one would've had to do was note that Bush, as governor of Texas, supported a $250 million cut to kindergarten funding while cutting property taxes by $1.2 billion; tried to raise the eligibility threshold in the state's Children's Health Insurance Program, which would have dropped 200,000 of the 500,000 children eligible (only to be thwarted by Texas Democrats); and used large budget surpluses in 1997 and 1999 to cut taxes rather than fund programs that had been underfunded for years—despite the fact that his state, under his watch, ranked at the very bottom of most poverty measures.

So yes, when Bush started making "heartfelt" noises on the campaign trail about helping the poor, he was just trying to win votes from gullible moderates. Unlike Ezra Klein, I don't believe Bush has ever cared about poverty. He worked with Ted Kennedy to pass No Child Left Behind because he wanted to be known as the "education president" and do something grand and sweeping, not because he had some heartfelt interest in improving public schools. Molly Ivins, who has followed the man's career longer than most journalists, had it right when she wrote that when it comes to seeing how his policies affect people, Bush just doesn't get it, and never will.

The Boyfriend Crisis

In its July issue, Esquire gets its boxers in a twist over what editor David Granger calls "the looming crisis in manhood" [sorry, article not online]. No, not the growing ranks of men who wear black shoes with tan suits and don't recognize Tom Hanks as the "official man of American men", but the so-called "boy crisis" (short version: after centuries of getting high test scores, boys are coming in second to uppity girls). In rehashing the stats that supposedly confirm the emergency, the glossy notes that for every 58 women in college and grad school, there are only 42 men. Which prompts this somber conclusion: "That means one in four female students can't find a male peer to date." Esquire's worried about a collegiate sex ratio skewed in favor of straight guys? Things really must be serious...

Last Domestic Detainee Released -- 5 Years After the FBI Concluded He Was Innocent

The U.S. war on terror has robbed hundreds of innocent people of years of their lives. (See for example Mackenzie Funk's recent report for Mother Jones about the emblematic case of one innocent man, a Tajik, scooped up in Pakistan on suspicion of terrorist activities and held for two years in the legal black hole of the U.S. War on Terror—in four prisons and three countries.)

After 9/11, of course, large numbers of people--1,200 mainly Muslim men--were swept up in this country, too, and held in detention centers. No terrorists among them. Yesterday brought yet another grim milestone in our journey from Sept. 11: the release of the last of these detainees--an Algerian air force lieutenant who spent just under five years in captivity even though the FBI concluded in November 2001 that he had zero connection to terrorism.

The man is applying for political asylum in Canada, and the Washington Post quotes the executive director of the Canadian Council for Refugees as saying, "Obviously, there is enormous relief. But I am extremely bitter that five years of a person's life can be taken away."

For more, see Mother Jones' full coverage of U.S. detainee policy here.

GOP Needs More Than Rhetoric on Civil Rights

"Bush moves to heal old wounds," runs a headline in the Boston Globe today, describing the president's appearance, after five straight no-shows, at the NAACP's annual conference. Admitting that his party hasn't exactly endeared itself to African Americans, he told his audience "I want to change the relationship."

A good editorial in USA Today points out how much work that will take.

Healing the rift — and bringing his party along — will take more than words, particularly in advancing civil rights. In 2000, Bush promised to make civil rights enforcement a "cornerstone" of his administration. He has done better than some critics contend, but no one could argue with a straight face that he kept that vow.
From protecting voting rights to preventing job discrimination, Bush's Justice Department has failed to provide the enforcement power that such delicate programs need to survive.
The department's civil rights division, for example, signed off on a Georgia voting plan and a Texas redistricting map that later were blocked by the courts for discrimination against minority voters. And the department's position in a case involving retaliation against a female worker who filed a discrimination claim was so weak that the Supreme Court rejected it, 8-1.
After Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, leaving thousands of poor African-American residents homeless and jobless, Bush promised "bold action" to confront poverty with "roots in the history of racial discrimination." But that pledge, too, dissipated quicker than a summer squall.

California OKs Stem Cell Research Funds

This is more like it! From the San Francisco Chronicle

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger authorized $150 million in loans to the state's stem cell agency one day after President Bush vetoed legislation that would have expanded federal funding of embryonic stem cell research.
The governor's action Thursday quadruples the amount of money available in the state to begin research on stem cells, which scientists believe hold extraordinary promise to cure diseases. It also carries political benefits for Schwarzenegger, who has distanced himself from the deeply unpopular Republican president.

"With one stroke, the governor has energized stem cell research in California," said the president of the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine "This is the new frontier in biomedical research, and the United States needs to be working in it. California will become a surrogate for the nation's efforts." And the governor himself said: "We can no longer wait to fund this important research." Good for him.

PLUS: Though Bush's veto will hold back a lot of important work in the field, Forbes reminds that "Stem cell research is alive and well at a host of small companies and academic laboratories in the United States."

PLUS PLUS:"Illinois's governor announced yesterday he was diverting $5 million from the state budget for stem cell research, despite repeated objections from state legislators." (AP)

Stem Cell Side Effects=WMD?

Over on NPR, Congressman Dan Lundgren is allowed, in an unchallenged piece of commentary, a few minutes of complete doublespeak on the stem cell debate, in which he claims that embryonic stem cell research (in addition to being a mortal sin, natch) would result in tumors and other side effects straight out of X-Men.

Despite Rep. Lundgren’s intimations to the contrary, tumor growth is a problem bedeviling adult stem cell researchers, too. This shouldn’t be surprising—with either adult or embryonic stem cells, scientists are dealing with, and manipulating, cell growth and death and division. All very complicated stuff, which is why a lot of research is key.

But I’d pay attention to this “tumor” meme. It has the feeling of “mobile weapons labs” to me.

July 20, 2006

Take Your Time, Condi. (End Timers' Take on Lebanon)

Bombs are falling over the Middle East, and the doomsday-ers of the Rapture Ready/End Times message board are giddy—the blood-dry spell in the holy land is finally over (cursed peace process!) and the prophesized destruction of Israel is, apparently, nigh. Harper’s Ken Silverstein got to the site before it shut down for “database maintenance” (a little heaven packing?) this afternoon:

Praise God! We are chosen to be in these times and also watch and spread the word. Something inside me is exploding to get out, and I don't know what it is. Its kind of like I want to do cartwheels around the neighborhood.
* * *

In another thread, someone brought up the fact that the kidnapping of the first Israeli soldier that started this whole thing was on June 25th and if you count from that day to August 3rd.......it is *EXACTLY 40 days!!!!!* I find that to be a HUGE coincidence.

* * *

A question just popped in my head. Do you think children of around say 7 or 8 (but before the age of accountability) that have been indoctrinated up until that time by their parents religious beliefs will be raptured? . . . For example, would a 7 year old muslim be raptured? I know G-d will do right but I was just wondering everyone's thoughts. I hate to think of kids being left here.

* * *

Got that dancing feeling on the inside of me.

* * *

This is the busiest I've ever seen this website in a few years! I have been having rapture dreams and I can't believe that this is really it! We are on the edge of eternity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

* * *

Whoa! I can sure feel the glory bumps after reading this thread!

* * *

I too am soooo excited!! I get goose bumps, literally, when I watch what's going on in the M.E.!! And Watcherboy, you were so right when saying it was quite a day yesterday, in the world news, and I add in local news here in the Boston area!! Tunnel ceiling collapsed on a car and killed a woman of faith, and we had the most terrifying storms I have ever seen here!! But, yes, oh happy day, like in your screen name, it is most indeed a time to be happy and excited, right there with ya!!

* * *

I am excited beyond words that the struggle of this life may be over soon and I can finally be FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!

* * *

This is so exciting....I'm having a hard time believing this is 'real'!

Vouchers: The new New Math

Last Friday, the Department of Education released a report showing that students attending public schools generally did as well as or better than comparable students in private schools.

According to the New York Times:

That report examined test scores of 700,000 fourth and eighth graders at public schools and those of 25,000 private school students. It found that when students of like economic, racial and family backgrounds were compared, public school students did as well as or better than those in private school in fourth grade reading and math and in eighth grade math. The exception was eighth grade reading, in which private school students did better.

Then on Tuesday, the Secretary of Education, Margaret Spellings, joined congressional Republicans in their proposal to spend $100 million on vouchers.

Asked about the DOE’s own study, “Ms. Spellings, at the news conference, called the report's sample small and its results '’basically inconclusive.'”

Hmmm. I’m no statistician but…

Few Editorials Find Fault With the Bombing of Beirut. Say What?

Lebanese civilians are overwhelmingly the victims of Israeli attacks, the U.N. concludes there are ground (on both sides mind you) for war crimes prosecutions, and few editorials find fault with the bombing of Beirut! Here's Greg Mitchell of Editor & Publisher:

While it’s not surprising that nearly every editorial page in the U.S. has offered support for Israel's right to retaliate against Hamas and Hezbollah, it’s a disgrace that few have expressed outrage, or at least condemnation, over the extent of death and destruction in and around Beirut -- and the attacks on the country’s infrastructure, which harms most citizens of that country.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed in Lebanon, dozens of bridges and part of Beirut’s airport destroyed, power stations and ports short-circuited. Latest reports put the number of refugees at half a million, with thousands of Americans waiting for evacuation.
Amazingly, criticism of the extent of Israel's bombing -- and its policy of collective punishment -- has actually decreased as the carnage has mounted. (Italics added)

This is unbelievable. Read on at E&P. (Photo: AP/Wide World Photos)

PLUS: "With Israel's bombardment of Lebanon, the fighting in Gaza has been largely overlooked. But people continue to die daily in the territory with 103 Palestinians killed so far, and Palestinian fighters continue to fire rockets into Israel." (AP)

Is Lebanon in for "Prolonged Instability"?

A few brief comments on the war in Lebanon. This article by Michael Young in Slate and this piece in The Jewish Week both make what seems to be the most crucial point: Israel simply cannot disarm—or even significantly weaken—Hezbollah through military force alone. Hezbollah is massively popular among the country's large Shiite minority, its rockets are hidden in thousands of homes across southern Lebanon, and even the upcoming "limited" ground offensive by Israel looks like it will be about as effective at uprooting Hezbollah as the flattening of Fallujah was at crushing the Iraqi insurgency. In other words, not at all.

So it's hard to imagine what the end result will be. Presumably Israel will cease its offensive at some point. Lots of civilians will be dead. Hezbollah will still exist, it will still have many of the 13,000 rockets it had before the war began, and it will likely be more popular than ever. The much-weakened Lebanese government isn't likely to confront Hezbollah now (especially if its army ends up fighting alongside the militia while trying to repulse an Israeli ground invasion). An international peacekeeping force might be deployed on the southern border, but if Hezbollah keeps its missiles hidden and refuses to disarm, then this gets us nowhere. No wonder Young predicts that "Lebanon is in for prolonged instability."

An equally likely scenario is that there will be a tentative ceasefire, a loose border agreement that satisfies no one, and no peacekeeping force. Indeed, I have a hard time imagining that the UN will send in a force with a robust mandate to disarm or neutralize Hezbollah as well as the means to do so. Exactly how many countries want to send their soldiers to Lebanon to confront an angry guerrilla army with broad popular support and wealthy patrons abroad? (One Pentagon official claims that one of the Bush administration's ultimate goals is to get French support "to neutralize Hezbollah." Is it really that easy?)

I have no clue what the U.S. should do in this situation. The New Republic's suggestion that we should let Israel "defeat" Hezbollah (how? to what end?) and then "move ruthlessly to prevent Iran" from going nuclear is obviously insane. It would be awfully nice if TNR could focus on something besides proposals to get lots of people killed. As an alternative, it's hard to imagine that the United States would be ill-served by at least trying to open up talks with Iran and Syria, and see where that leads, rather than spend the next decade fighting a proxy war that benefits precisely no one. But one may as well wish for ponies at this point.

"I understand that many African Americans distrust my political party"

Bush's address to the NAACP goes down...as you might expect.

Bush's remarks met with largely lukewarm applause from the crowd and at one point near the end of his speech, two hecklers threatened to disrupt the address. The president pressed ahead undaunted, though.

Apropos, Mike Davis wrote this piece for us a couple of years ago noting that on the fortieth anniversary of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, both Democrats and Republicans--indeed, the American people at large--seemed to have returned to "degree zero of moral concern for the majority of descendants of slavery and segregation."

Judge threatens illegal immigrant seeking a restraining order against her husband with deportation

Sam Quinones of the LAT reports that:

A substitute judge hearing the case of an illegal immigrant seeking a restraining order against her husband threatened to turn her over to immigration officials if she didn't leave his courtroom.
Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Pro Tem Bruce R. Fink told Aurora Gonzalez during last week's hearing that he was going to count to 20 and that if she was still in his courtroom when he finished, he would have her arrested and deported to Mexico.

In an interview Wednesday, Fink said that the woman had admitted in court that she was in the country illegally and that he didn't want her to get in trouble with immigration officials.

"We have a federal law that says that this status is not allowed," Fink said. "You can't just ignore it. What I really wanted was to not give this woman any problems."

He said he thought the couple "obviously wanted to get back together" and that he was trying to avoid granting a restraining order that would keep them apart for at least a year. He said he also thought the court order might lead to Gonzalez's deportation, because her husband would not be able to continue helping her get legal residency.

You can read the rest here.

Thanks to Charles Bowden for pointing this story out.