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Is Iran to Blame for Israel's Woes?
Laura Rozen writes:
From a colleague covering the conflict in Israel: "Almost everyone I talk to here is now saying the Iraq war has presented one of the most significant threats to Israel in its history." Namely because it has so empowered Iran, and reduced US ability to deal with Iran now.
Well, that may be true, in a sense, but it's worth thinking this through. It's a lot harder for the United States to invade Iran now, true—after all, we don't have the troops, and any war against Iran would endanger the 130,000 soldiers currently stationed in Iraq. (Of course, that may not actually deter the Bush administration from bringing out the tactical nuclear weapons and starting World War III, but it's at least convinced some top generals in the Pentagon to oppose war with Iran.) By extension, it's now a lot harder for the United States to threaten to invade Iran. But then again, invading Iran was never a good idea, regardless of what happened in Iraq.
The preferred dovish way of "deal[ing] with Iran" is to talk with the leaders in Tehran, and perhaps eventually striking a deal by promising not to attack (which is a horrible and unfeasible idea anyway) in exchange for better behavior. We still have the ability, even after Iraq, to give that a try at least; it's just that the Bush administration just refuses to do so for various ideological reasons. Maybe Iran is actually less willing to negotiate thanks to the war in Iraq. But it's hard to say, since no one has actually tried.
It's also hard to say in what sense Iran has posed "one of the most significant threats to Israel in its history." Iran has armed Hezbollah, yes. And Hezbollah has been firing missiles into Israel, true. But neither of those things pose existential threats to Israel in the way that, say, various Arab armies, backed by the Soviet Union, did back in the 1960s and 1970s.
In any case, it's worth noting that Israel brought the current crisis on itself by invading Lebanon. Iran had little to do with it. Prior to the outbreak of war on July 12, Hezbollah rocket attacks were somewhat desultory and killed relatively few Israelis—it was bad, yes, but not something Israel couldn't live with if there was no good way of dealing with it. And there wasn't a good way of dealing with it. At present, Israel is talking about occupying a greater portion of Lebanon than it did back during its disastrous occupation in the 1980s. How does that help matters? It doesn't, it's a disaster. Iran is a problem, but it's clearly not the sole problem here.
Posted by Bradford Plumer on 08/04/06 at 9:41 AM | E-mail | Print | Digg | de.licio.us | Reddit | Newsvine | Yahoo! MyWeb | StumbleUpon | Netscape | Google |
Comments
We are so prone to use the "blame-game" in analysis of any human situation, trying to identify who is "guilty" and shoot them. However, human systems are much more complex than this simplistic idea of “guilty” and “innocent”. Some years ago among those who worked with human-interaction contexts, such as organizations, there was a push to create “systems-think.” Systems theory and practice is a serious force in scientific thinking. A 1950 paper by Ludwig von Bertalanffy is considered a seminal work as well as the 1938 work of W. Koehler, The Place of Values in the World of Fact. Our global community is much more complex than the simple finger-pointing demonstrates. Yet, we continue to find it difficult to move away from find the “villain” rather than sharing responsibility for the “mess” we are observing. It is like the marital conflict or a conflict between two partners in a firm. Each participate has participated in building the human interactive system in which contains the clash. Every nation involved in these current conflicts (note the plural) share responsibility for the havoc that is continuing at this very moment. There are no angelic members; we have ALL participated in creating this chaos and we will all suffer because of it. The same is true with global warming. Therefore, it is ALL of us who are responsible to do our part to change the tide before it drowns us all.
Posted by: Jim Smith on 08/04/06 at 2:01 PM
Since I believe that every death/injury in war is a war crime and since USA/Israel kill/injure about ten of them to every one of us killed/injured, this indicates that USA/Israel are about ten times as guilty as their opponents are.
Posted by: Bob Saxton on 08/05/06 at 12:23 AM
A conflict that has been going on for ages.
Posted by: Dr.Q on 08/05/06 at 2:02 AM
I tend to agree with Mr. Smith. However, it is hard to find solutions when the parties do not want them, especially Israel, which has scorned Nasrallah's offer for a ceasefire. Apparently, Olmert and the chiefs of staff are burning for a revenge. Yes, we should think of solutions and we the people should exercise people's power to "convince" the parties.
Posted by: Jaime Galarza on 08/05/06 at 6:07 AM
Dr. Q is correct, in my view, that it is hard to find solutions when parties within the system do not want them or have trust to participate. This still requires deep analysis of "why" one would not want a solution. We have seen it in business partnerships and organizatons as well as marital. That party looks like the "guilty party", but when closer examination occurs one finds that it has a participatory aspect by both sides at some point. This is not to allow any party to escape responsibility - we are all responsible. And, like current situatons, it is very difficult to do this and very difficult to get the parties involved even to consider doing this. To have parties in conflict to "stand on the balcony" takes a real commitment. Do any of the involved parties, including our own national leaders (and our history) really are willing to work toward that end? They may say they do, but when money, power, and valued resources - such as oil - are at stake, there are many internal and external forces present that are counter productive to any type of systems analysis and shared responsiblities.
Posted by: Jim Smith on 08/05/06 at 6:18 AM
What people are forgetting about is the fact that suicide bombers have been killing innocent Israelis for year's. The Hezbollah use their own civilians as human sheilds, they have cushioned their own people by providing better necessities of life. This in fact fuels the people of Lebannon to support the Hezbollah's terrorist tactics. This is a cleaver maneuver of the Hezobollah with their neanderthal qualities to seduce a people that have little to live for and ignite an uprising around the world. Religion is the demise of the world we all live in today.
Posted by: anissa on 08/05/06 at 10:11 AM
We I guess Israel and US is not looking for ceasefire because they think they have the big guns and they will win by hitting the Arabs hard. The Hezbollahs thinking is that the longer the fight the better chances of them winning it. At least in the Arab countries point of view if not the West because they have stood up to Israelis. The reason Mr.Nasrallah offered the ceasefire is becuase his country is getting damaged and his people are dying more than the Israelis. I think what would bring the US and Israelis to the table is two things. First if the Israelis casualties are less and they are gaining on the ground then they will come to the peace table when they see fit. Secondly if the Israelis casualties are high and the distractions gets more and more and they do not gain ground on land then US will propose an immediate ceasefire. So it will all will depend on the Israelis loss and not the Arabs.
Posted by: Romeohifi on 08/06/06 at 9:52 PM
We I guess Israel and US is not looking for ceasefire because they think they have the big guns and they will win by hitting the Arabs hard. The Hezbollahs thinking is that the longer the fight the better chances of them winning it. At least in the Arab countries point of view if not the West because they have stood up to Israelis. The reason Mr.Nasrallah offered the ceasefire is becuase his country is getting damaged and his people are dying more than the Israelis. I think what would bring the US and Israelis to the table is two things. First if the Israelis casualties are less and they are gaining on the ground then they will come to the peace table when they see fit. Secondly if the Israelis casualties are high and the distractions gets more and more and they do not gain ground on land then US will propose an immediate ceasefire. So it will all will depend on the Israelis loss and not the Arabs.
Posted by: Romeohifi on 08/06/06 at 9:52 PM
the drug trade have a big infuence on hezbollah and sionist war.
If anti-prohibitionism could step on this area, it could help ease the tension.
Also we could look on chiite corporation having spied on israeli industry and vis-versa.
Louise arbour and human rights watch are calling the israeli war criminal.
While ayn rand and atlas shrug are calling arab militia: psychotic drug lord.
We might have a chance bringing these two faction together.
Posted by: samuel on 08/07/06 at 9:07 AM
Israel wanted the return of its two soldiers. This is commendable. However,Israel overreacted and started the attack. This is a Man's World. It runs on half a brain. To those who accept the teachings of the Bible, I urge them to take into account in Genesis,"male and female both made He". To have a world run by a whole brain requires the other lobe(female one, of course) Until males are ready and willing to put a stop to preventing women from participating on a level playing field in all policy making universally, we shall all remain in a barbaric thrall. Of course women are not as assertively aggressive as they should be and its going to be a long time, if ever, that we shall see a diminution of the horrors that the fertile male brain is capable of.
Posted by: Angela L.Perun on 08/29/06 at 11:08 PM
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On the Tele we saw Israeli photos from satellite showing
exactly where the Israel bombardment was concentrated
and exactly from where the Lebanese missiles were fired.
I did not know the Israelis had a satellite! They don't!
Did the US help the Israelis to those pictures and did the US help the Israelis to aim correctly?
IF so. That is an act of war! The US is actively help attacking Lebanese civilians and killing innocent children.
Right?!
Ulfe
Posted by: ULF LIDBECK on 08/04/06 at 1:41 PM