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The Unsinkable John Lott vs. "Freaky" Economics

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The world of economics is predictably unpredictable; we know that markets will ebb and flow, but not when or often why. So too it goes with John Lott, the undefatigable conservative economist who is guaranteed to pop up in some new controversy of his own creation every so often. What keeps him going—and why places like AEI embrace him—remains a mystery. Lott is most infamous for his claims that crime rates are inversely proportional to rates of gun ownership; or as his book title put it, More Guns, Less Crime. Small problem: His research is far from bulletproof, and he's been repeatedly exposed and denounced for what could be charitably called sloppy research. In his defense, Lott has blamed "coding errors," claimed that some of his data have been destroyed, and in his finest moment, created a fictitious online identity to take on his critics. But none of this has slowed him down. For a good rundown of Lott's sins, see Chris Mooney's 2003 piece on our website, which shot some more holes into his work. More recently, Lott sued the Freakonomics guys for defamation after they wrote that he had "falsified his results." A judge threw part of his case out. Now Lott's firing back with a new book, Freedomnomics, a defense of the free market against "freaky theories," printed by renowned academic publisher Regnery. Fact checkers, statisticians, and economists, start your BS detectors...






Comments

Mr. Gilson would be well advised to check his own factual assertions before condemning others. (Full disclosure: John Lott and I overlapped in graduate school and have been friends for many years.) Lott's findings on gun ownership and crime rates in fact have been replicated multiple times by every scholar who has attempted to do so, and the findings have proven robust in papers published in peer-reviewed journals. The "coding errors" to which Gilson refers were made by other scholars attempting to extend Lott's analysis to additional years; Lott is not responsible for those mistakes. Lott's purportedly "sloppy research" has resulted in the publication of approximately 100 papers in peer-reviewed journals; so much for the sloppiness accusation, which is ill-defined in any event. In the lawsuit referenced above, the judge ruled against Lott on one cause of action; but the other cause of action remains. Only were Lott's work as sloppy and dishonest as Gilson's comments would Lott have anything about which to apologize.

Benjamin Zycher

Posted by: Benjamin Zycher on 03/29/07 at 1:46 PM  Respond

Thanks for your comments, Benjamin. Regarding my statement that Lott's findings have not been replicated by other researchers, I refer readers to Chris Mooney's article on our website, which details how other scholars were unable to recreate the findings upon which Lott's "more guns-less crime" thesis was based. That alone would suggest that it is not possible that Lott's findings "have been replicated multiple times by every scholar who has attempted to do so." As for my claim that no one's ever been able to replicate Lott's findings, I confess that I deferred to the Freakonomics guys on that one, perhaps too quickly. (That broad claim is at the heart of Lott's suit against Freakonomics co-author Steven Levitt. More on that in a sec.) But Lott's work is hardly a slam dunk, since his use of data is so contentious. As for the "coding error" matter, Mooney's article shows that these errors originated with research done by Lott and his associates, not his critics. Lott tried to explain away these errors as "minor" and not significant enough to affect his conclusions. Finally, you are correct that the judge did not dismiss Lott's entire claim against Levitt. He may still pursue his claim that Levitt defamed him in an email to another economist. But the court threw out Lott's contention that Freakonomics defamed him by asserting that his work could not be replicated by his colleagues. I've amended my post accordingly.

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