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July 13, 2007

Three More Iraqi Media Workers Killed Risking Their Lives For Our Headlines

Three Iraqis working for foreign news outlets were just killed, raising the total number of Iraqi media workers killed this year to at least 27, according to the nonprofit Committee to Protect Journalists.

A few days ago two Reuters employees, a photographer and driver, were killed in eastern Baghdad during what witnesses say was a U.S. helicopter attack, and then earlier today a 23-year-old reporter and interpreter for the New York Times was shot and killed on his way to work in south central Baghdad.

In the current issue of Mother Jones, Greg Veis profiles an Iraqi Reuters journalist whose peril in war is multiplied because of his association with Western media outlets.

"My wife has begged me to quit my job and even to leave Iraq. But I told her that every day tens of Iraqis are being killed for no reason, and they will be forgotten otherwise. To die as a journalist, I would know that I was killed while I was reporting the truth. I would die proud."

Veis points out the growing trend of American media outlets closing their bureaus in Iraq, or radically downsizing their presence, estimating that the current tally of American print correspondents in Iraq caps out at around 20. Which leaves the on-the-ground, dangerous reporting to Iraqis who string for most news outlets.

And the Army's take on Iraqis sending stories stateside? Veis talked to a lieutenant who feels they feed "the symbiotic relationship between violence and the media," in that they have access to stories because they have a "tacit agreement" with the enemy.

Read Veis' story soon on motherjones.com, or pick up the July/August issue from your local bookstore today.

Vitter Watch: If You Guessed Rehab Was Next, You're Probably Right

According to Citizens for Legitimate Government, Louisiana Sen. David Vitter has checked into Ochsner Foundation Hospital. Ochsner is not a pscyhiatric facility, but since Katrina, most such facilities have closed. Ochsner does have a department of psychiatry, though. Or perhaps he is just there for a stress check.

Vitter's spokespeople say that he is planning to return to work next week. He is described as being "in seclusion."

"We Have Made Remarkable Progress" — GWB Video Smackdown

Viral videos have a power that partisan media lacks. If a video succinctly makes a point about Bush's record in Iraq, thousands or even millions of people, regardless of party affiliation, may decide to spend a minute and a half to check it out. All it takes is a click of the mouse.

An excellent article in a magazine, however, requires finding a copy and reading for half an hour. Too often, the people willing to make that investment already agree with the article's point.

You tell me. What catches your attention — the video below (spotted on TAPPED) or this article?

Answers for Morning Political Trivia for July 13

We didn't get many bites on today's morning political trivia, but here's the answer anyway: The two current Senators who served as congressional pages are Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.). No one guessed this — we'll try something a little easier for tomorrow. CQ Politics has more on the subject of former pages in congress. Unsurprisingly, both Dodd and Pryor served as pages during their fathers' tenures in congress. Check back tomorrow for more trivia.

— Nick Baumann

Peggy Noonan: Bush is "Extremely Irritating," "Unnatural," and "Weird"

Conservative mouthpiece Peggy Noonan has a delightful op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today.

I received an email before the news conference from as rock-ribbed a Republican as you can find, a Georgia woman (middle-aged, entrepreneurial) who'd previously supported him. She said she'd had it. "I don't believe a word that comes out of his mouth." I was startled by her vehemence only because she is, as I said, rock-ribbed. Her email reminded me of another, one a friend received some months ago: "I took the W off my car today," it said on the subject line. It sounded like a country western song, like a great lament.

As I watched the news conference, it occurred to me that one of the things that might leave people feeling somewhat disoriented is the president's seemingly effortless high spirits. He's in a good mood. There was the usual teasing, the partly aggressive, partly joshing humor, the certitude. He doesn't seem to be suffering, which is jarring. Presidents in great enterprises that are going badly suffer: Lincoln, LBJ with his head in his hands. Why doesn't Mr. Bush? Every major domestic initiative of his second term has been ill thought through and ended in failure. His Iraq leadership has failed. His standing is lower than any previous president's since polling began. He's in a good mood. Discuss.

...

Americans have always been somewhat romantic about the meaning of our country, and the beacon it can be for the world, and what the Founders did. But they like the president to be the cool-eyed realist, the tough customer who understands harsh realities.

With Mr. Bush it is the people who are forced to be cool-eyed and realistic. He's the one who goes off on the toots. This is extremely irritating, and also unnatural. Actually it's weird.

To me, watching a Bush press conference has been a maddening experience for a number of years. I suspect it's the same for many of our readers. Looks like Peggy, and her conservative friends, are just catching up. Read the whole op-ed here.

Vitter's New Orleans Prostitute Same One He Was Linked To In 2004

The woman who calls herself, among many other names, Wendy Cortez, is a former employee of the famous "Canal Street Madam" who has acknowledged that Louisiana Sen. David Vitter was a client at her establishment more than once in the 90s. Cortez outed Vitter yesterday, saying that she was "perturbed that he portrayed himself as a politician who would bring moral authority to his office when he was using her services on the side."

It turns out that Cortez is the same woman allegedly linked with Vitter when he ran for the Senate in 2004. At the time, Vitter said that the accusation was "absolutely and completely untrue," and part of "crass Louisiana politics." He continues to deny any association with Cortez, and his attorney continues to point out that Vitter was not part of the federal investigation that closed the New Orleans establishment in 2001, and that his name was never found in any records by either the lead defense attorney or the U.S. attorney during the investigation.

A former romantic partner of Cortez's has told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he believes Vitter was not only a client of Cortez's, but that they also had a romantic involvement of some kind. He describes some photographs of the two of them together, one of which shows a woman with her hand on Vitter's crotch. However, Canal Street Madam Jeanette Maier says the woman in the photos is not the woman whom she knew as Wendy Cortez.

Cortez has no known arrests for prostitution, but she does have an arrest record for forgery, parole violation, fleeing from justice, and fraudulent use of credit cards.

Morning Political Trivia for July 13

We promised we'd keep going with the trivia, so here's today's question (with thanks to CQ Politics):

Which two current U.S. Senators once served as congressional pages?

Remember, no Googling! We'll be competing every morning here at Mother Jones' DC Bureau, and I'll let you know the results (and how we fared) each afternoon. If you have a good question, submit it to mojotrivia@gmail.com. I'll credit you if we use your question (please let us know if you got it from another source).

Submit your answers in the comments section, and good luck!

— Nick Baumann

Daily Republican Sex Scandal Roundup

The question of whether Florida Rep. Bob Allen, co-chairman of John McCain's Florida campaign, tried to pay an undercover male cop $20 to give or receive a blowjob has been answered. According to the police officer's report from the arrest (via Pandagon):

Allen engaged me in a conversation in which it was agreed that he would pay me $20.00 in order to perform a "blow job" on me. Allen stated that he wanted me to ride with him accross [sic] the river before he performed the act and gave me the money. Before entering Allen's vehicle I identified myself as a police officer and detained him.

I'm glad we cleared that up. I should also mention that between 2003 and 2006, Allen voted with the Christian Coalition over 90 percent of the time.

Speaking of hypocritical Christian conservatives... Jack Burkman, a GOP political operative, conservative pundit, and former lobbyist for James Dobson's Family Research Council, was just exposed as being on the DC Madam's list.

Iraq Status: Duck and Cover, Wait and See

Even as President Bush begs for more time to allow the so-called 'surge' to work in Iraq, the outlook from his own National Security Council is not all that encouraging. In yesterday's status report on 18 benchmarks to be achieved by the Iraqi Government, only eight showed "satisfactory" progress, while the status of the remaining ten was characterized as "mixed" or "unsatisfactory." Among those that failed to make any headway at all: easing de-Baathification laws to allow those who worked as lower-level civil service employees under Saddam's regime to return to work; disarming the country's various ethnic and religious militias; ensuring that Iraqi police enforce the law fairly, without consideration of sectarian ties; allowing Iraqi military commanders to operate without interference from politicians in Baghdad; and increasing the number of Iraqi military units capable of staging operations without American assistance.

These would seem huge (and sadly familiar) obstacles to Bush's vision of "victory" in Iraq, whatever that might mean... Still, the president remains sanguine about our prospects there. At a White House news conference yesterday, at which he unveiled the depressing results of the NSC report, the president, true to form, chose to look on the bright side:

I believe we can succeed in Iraq, and I know we must... Those who believe that the battle in Iraq is lost will likely point to the unsatisfactory performance on some of the political benchmarks. Those of us who believe that battle in Iraq can and must be won see the satisfactory performance on several of the security benchmarks as a cause for optimism...

The bottom line is that this is a preliminary report and it comes less than a month after the final reinforcements arrived in Iraq. This September, as Congress has required, General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will return to Washington to provide a more comprehensive assessment. By that time, we hope to see further improvement...

In similar fashion, the NSC report also includes a caveat encouraging skeptical Americans to wait and see:

Some of the benchmarks may be leading indicators, giving some sense of future trends; but many are more accurately characterized as lagging indicators, and will only be achieved after the strategy is fully underway and generates improved conditions on the ground... It will take time, however, for improved conditions locally to translate into broader political accommodations at the national level; what is important is the overall trajectory, which, under our present strategy, has begun to stabilize, compared to the deteriorating trajectory seen over the course of 2006.

One Iraqi locale where conditions seem not have improved is the Green Zone, which this week has been the target of even more mortar attacks than usual. This morning's Washington Post offers a facsimile of a "Security Notice" issued in response to the attacks. More than four years after the U.S. invasion, embassy staff are being asked to don helmets and flak jackets whenever they step outdoors. And in the event of a mortar attack? Think Cold War. Yep,..."duck and cover" under the nearest table or desk until the All Clear signal is given. Then, when the smoke has cleared, continue to wait and see how Bush's "victory" can ever be achieved.

Leaked Army Karbala Report Shows Iraqi Police Collaborated in Ambush on US Troops

USA Today has obtained the internal US Army investigation report on the ambush, kidnapping and killing of five US troops at a meeting with local officials in Karbala last January 20, and its findings are devastating.

A previously undisclosed Army investigation into an audacious January attack in Karbala that killed five U.S. soldiers concludes that Iraqi police working alongside American troops colluded with insurgents.

The assault on the night of Jan. 20 stunned U.S. officials with its planning and sophistication. ...

The information is contained in an investigative file made available to USA TODAY and authenticated by the Army. ...The investigation reveals several new details about the assault, including:

•Iraqi police suddenly vanished from the government compound before the shooting started.

•Attackers, evidently briefed on how U.S. forces would defend themselves, bottled up more than three dozen soldiers in a barracks and headquarters complex using a combination of smoke and fragment grenades and satchel charges to blow up Humvees.

•Gunmen knew exactly where to find and abduct U.S. officers.

•Iraqi vendors operating a PX and barbershop went home early.

•A back gate was left unlocked and unguarded.

It's worth noting that Army officials disclosed none of this when Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner, a former White House aide, briefed the press this month. Bergner failed to mention that an internal Army investigation had found that the Iraqi police the US troops are supposed to be training and cooperating with played a direct role in the ambush.

Instead, Bergner blamed Iran. "The Quds Force, an elite unit of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards, helped plan and direct it with Iraqi militants, said Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner, a military spokesman," USA Today reports."The Quds Force, he said, supplied Shiite militias with weapons and up to $3 million a month in aid."

What would be Gen. Bergner's motivation for neglecting to mention the key findings of the military's own internal investigation of the attack?

Why Wait for McCain's Big Speech?

When Mike Cooper of the NYT's Caucus blog has it already?

In a speech he plans to deliver in Concord, N.H., Mr. McCain, who just returned from Iraq last week, plans to cast the 2008 presidential election as a referendum on the war in Iraq – a risky stance, given polls that show the war is increasingly unpopular.

"In November, 2008 the American people will decide with their votes how and where this war will be fought or if it will be fought at all," Mr. McCain plans to say, according to excerpts of the speech obtained from the campaign.

"I have told you how I intend to fight this war," he plans to say. "Other candidates will argue for a different course. Democratic candidates for President will argue for the course of cutting our losses and withdrawing from the threat in the vain hope it will not follow us here. I cannot join them in such wishful and very dangerous thinking. Peace at any price is an illusion and its costs are always more tragic than the sacrifices victory requires. I will stand where I stand today and trust you to give me a fair hearing. There is too much at stake in this election for any candidate to do less."

I'll say this about John McCain: He's a brilliant strategist! Must be that military background. Following a week where seemingly everyone in his campaign quit, was fired, or got caught soliciting gay sex, John McCain did not quaver. No, he looked (or is about to look) straight into the cameras and told the American people he's all for a massively unpopular war.

I tell you, he doesn't need aides, he's so savvy.

What Happens in Starbucks Stays in Starbucks

Idle observation from the morning coffee run:

When did American adults start having more calories at breakfast than they do at dinner? Triple mocha caramel extra whip type drinks now seem to be the norm. And let's not forget the pastries!

I'm guessing the reason is that no one is around to see you cheat, and, since it's a cash-based economy, the only trace you've done so is a swelling waistline. Or a diabetic attack.

July 12, 2007

Some Men's Trash More Treasured Than Other's

There's a garbage strike going on across the San Francisco Bay. Waste Management of Alameda County, serving the 7th largest county in the state with 1.5 million residents (that's more than all of Idaho), has locked out its 500 workers over contract disputes, and there's no end in sight. So for now 200 replacement workers are scrambling to keep up.

Here's the rub: Turns out that while pickups are proceeding in the county's wealthy neighborhoods, the less well-to-do areas are becoming giant trash heaps. Manicured enclaves like Castro Valley and Montclair in Oakland—where seven-figure homes are commonplace—and even most of Berkeley are just fine; pickups have stayed on schedule.

But trash is piling up in poor neighborhoods. West and East Oakland have been the most neglected (two of our editors live in East Oakland, myself included), with garbage cans overflowing and bags stacking deep and wide from block to block. This, despite the fact that the monthly fees we pay are exactly the same as those in Piedmont, Oakland's Bel Air.

All Waste Management, has to say to the discrepancy is that the irregularities are no fault of the company's and to "have patience." Yeah? Tell that to the raccoons hanging out outside our houses at night.

Luckily our city's patience has also worn thin. Today Oakland filed a lawsuit against Waste Management saying that the accumulated waste is "a clear and compelling safety and health and welfare issue," with potential health risks if garbage piles up in such dense urban areas.

That, yeah, but it's also an issue of dignity and echoes of the Superdome reverberate. All in all, it stinks.

Bush to Congress: Don't Mess With Me on Iran, Either

Spencer Ackerman at Talking Points Memo picked out an interesting detail from a letter President Bush just sent to Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.). In addition to writing that he'll veto any measures to end the war in Iraq, Bush added that he will veto any congressional attempts to limit his ability to take military action against Iran. This could be the usual executive prerogative-thumping, but does it hint at an anticipated showdown over Iran? And if so, what does the White House think the congressional Democrats are cooking up? (And just as importantly, what the heck is the White House cooking up?)

To get a sense of what Congress could—and couldn't—do to tie Bush's hands on Iran, check out this recent MJ article by Jonathan Schwarz. If anyone in Congress is serious about preempting a strike on Iran, he concludes, they have to act sooner rather than later: "If the Democrats continue to sit tight as the White House decides its next move, the administration will have won the first battle of the next war without firing a single shot."

Want a Dirty Bomb? Just Seal, Stamp, and Send...

As reported on the front pages of today's Washington Post and New York Times, undercover congressional investigators successfully exploited loopholes in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's licensing guidelines to obtain enough radiological material to build a so-called "dirty bomb." Investigators with the Government Accounting Office posing as West Virginia businessmen sent away for a federal permit to purchase radiological materials, which they received just 28 days later. Had the NRC bothered to do any due diligence, it would have discovered that the fictional company had no office location, no website, and no employees. As noted in the Times piece, "its only asset was a postal box."

This was not the first undercover operation to test the NRC's control measures. A similar sting in 2005 also resulted in GAO investigators obtaining small amounts of radioactive materials, for which they created false licensing documents using samples found on the Internet. They then smuggled the material across the U.S. border at two separate locations. Customs and Border Control personnel were unable to identity the forged documents and allowed the shipments to proceed. In this year's operation, investigators employed a similar tactic, counterfeiting the NRC license they received and removing the limit on the amount of radiological material they were allowed to purchase.

At a Senate hearing this morning, at which the GAO released its report on the operation, NRC Commissioner Edward McGaffigan, Jr. acknowledged continuing problems with the Commission's licensing procedures:

In hindsight NRC missed vulnerabilities in our licensing process identified by GAO, that resulted in a seemingly legitimate licensee obtaining a license for a small amount of material, then falsifying the license and potentially aggregating a much larger amount of material...

The Commission takes this issue very seriously... GAO may have found a unique vulnerability, or there may be more left for us to discover. We intend to find out.

The truth is, whether or not NRC improves its licensing controls, those who want to obtain radiological materials—given enough time, money, and determination—will probably succeed. Just ask William Langewiesche.

Answers for Morning Political Trivia for July 12

Commenter Al did better on our inaugural morning political trivia question than all of the journalists here, going four-for-four. The four state capitals that begin with the same letter as the state they're in are Dover, DE; Honolulu, HI; Indianapolis, IN; and Oklahoma City, OK.

Here at MoJo DC, only Reporter Jonathan Stein and Associate Editor Dan Schulman came close — both quickly guessed three of the four and then got stuck. Dan was missing Dover, DE, while Jonathan spent most of the day trying to get Indianapolis (he eventually guessed it). Points to Jonathan and commenter Al, and consolation prizes for Dan and commenters Frank (1/4), Bradley T Hughes (3/4), and Stephen Jackson, who was the first to get Oklahoma City. Come back for another question tomorrow morning.

—Nick Baumann

John McCain, Florida, Gay Prostitution, $20 — Just Read the Post

Can John McCain get a break? Hot on the heels of the loss of his top campaign management, the resignation of key Iowa team members, and news that the campaign will actually report a debt in the next few days, we've got.... a gay prostitution scandal. What's next? Locusts in campaign HQ?

Florida State Represenative Bob Allen, co-chair of McCain's Florida campaign, has been arrested for offering an undercover male police officer $20 in exchange for a blowjob in a public bathroom.

The detail you're dying to know (I'm sure) isn't clear. This Orlando Sentinel story says Allen was arrested for "offering to perform a sex act". But TV reports out of Florida say Allen was to have the sex act performed on him. It was to sort out details like this that I got into journalism.

And is there an element of hypocrisy here? Of course, there's more than enough to go around these days. Allen recently introduced HB 1475 into the Florida state legislature, a bill called "Lewd or Lascivious Exhibition" that lays a mightier smackdown on offenders of Allen's stripe. (Question: Was he doing research?) And the Rainbow Democratic Club, a central Florida gay rights group, recently identified Allen as one of the region's most hostile legislators towards gays. (Opposition research, then?)

We all know what's at the bottom of this scandal. Gay sweaters.

Update: Big question answered.

Intel Committees Weigh in on Security Report

Today, intelligence officials briefed the White House on a new threat assessment that says Al-Qaida has regained strength, and is able to train, communicate and raise money while operating from safe havens in Pakistan.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) blames the Bush White House's decision to go into Iraq before finishing off Al Qaida in Afghanistan:

One of the greatest tragedies of Iraq is that it has distracted us from fighting the real threat we face, al Qaida.

... Instead of pursuing them and finishing them off when we had the chance in 2002 and 2003, President Bush chose to invade Iraq thereby diverting our military and intelligence resources away from the real war on terrorism.

Let me be clear, threats to the United States homeland are not emanating from Iraq; they are coming from al Qaida leadership. ...

If we really want to protect our homeland and our citizens from attack, we must end our involvement in the Iraqi civil war and refocus on destroying the al Qaida organization that still wants to attack us here at home.

Former House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Peter Hoekstra (R-MI), now the ranking Republican on the committee, has a different view: Congress has been too busy trying to appease MoveOn.org to amend the country's FISA laws:

“Al-Qaeda has repeatedly made their intention to attack us clear, yet Congress is doing nothing to address this threat,” Hoekstra said. “At multiple classified hearings this year, the House Intelligence Committee has heard how the outdated FISA law is interfering with our intelligence effort against al-Qaeda.

“Instead of playing politics to appease MoveOn.org, Congress needs to modernize FISA to stop al-Qaeda.”

It's worth pointing out that the administration decided in secret to simply bypass FISA with its warrantless domestic spying programs rather than ask Congress to amend the FISA laws, for more than five years.

More Charles Barkley Blogging

We bring you the all-important Charles Barkley endorsement: America's favorite rebounding champ (and walking quote machine) is supporting Barack Obama.

I just want to make sure you stay up-to-date on all the Charles Barkley-related political news (my first report on this is here). I would say that this endorsement is easily as important as the Oprah endorsement that Obama got earlier. Probably more.

Morning Political Trivia for July 12

To swing it in Swampland (Washington, that is), you have to know your stuff. With that in mind, Mother Jones' DC Bureau is launching a new daily feature on MoJo Blog: morning political trivia. We'll compete every morning in the office, and we'll give you a chance to try your hand at answering the question in the comments section (no Googling!). Then, every afternoon (Pacific time), we'll post the answer and heap praise on the commenters who guess correctly.

As your official quizmaster, I'll be finding the questions and keeping score. If you have a good one, submit it to mojotrivia@gmail.com. I'll credit you if we use your question (please let us know if you got it from another source).

But you won't be the only ones pondering each morning's question. Back in the capital, Mother Jones' DC correspondents will be struggling mightily to best each other in a never-ending battle royale of trivia. And there will be accountability in this administration. I'll let you know who got the question right and who got it wrong, be they intern or editor. So you won't just be getting the answers every afternoon, you'll be getting a chance to heap scorn on political reporters who don't know their political trivia. So, with that in mind, we'll start you out with a doozie (remember, no Googling!):

Name the four state capitals that begin with the same letter as the states they're in.

—Nick Baumann

Another Day, Another Heist in Baghdad

Hours before the White House released its tepid assessment of Iraq's progress on 18 congressional benchmarks, Baghdad's Dar Es Salaam bank was burgled of some $282 million. Apparently the heist was an inside job carried out by bank guards, who, Iraqi officials are speculating, have ties to the militias. If true, that certainly doesn't bode well for the security situation, raising the possibility that some rather unsavory militants are about to get a large cash infusion.

Believe it or not, but this massive heist is only the second largest in the country's history (not counting the hundreds of millions of dollars that vanished under the watchful eye of Iraq's defense ministry) . The first, which is the world's largest, happened shortly before the U.S. invasion commenced in March 2003, when Saddam Hussein and his family pilfered $1 billion from Iraq's Central Bank.

"Eerily Similar": In 1999-2000, It was Afghanistan. Today, Pakistan

A Hill staffer correspondent comments, in response to this:

Read your post. It strikes me that we are in an eerily similar situation to 1999 and 2000.

-- The United States is fully aware of Al Qaeda training camps operating openly, with links to cells and operatives in Western Europe elsewhere;

-- Our government is picking up increasing signs of communications, movements of money, and other signals indicative of planning for future attacks;

-- An internal debate is occurring over whether to take action against those training camps, including military strikes; while those who are forward leaning are pushing for more aggressive risk-taking, others are cognizant of not wanting to violate sovereign territory and risking large civilian casualties;

In 1999 and 2000, we were talking about Afghanistan. Today, it is Pakistan. The Clinton Administration was savaged after 9/11 for "treating terrorism as law enforcement", excessively taking into account the diplomatic sensitivities of other nations, and too much regard for civilian lives when we could have killed the bad guys with a missile strike. The Bushies said that would not happen on their watch.

So why is it happening again? At least the Clintonites did not have "the lessons of 9/11" as a backdrop.

He adds, "Every Pakistan expert I know is confident that, if Musharraf were overthrown or assassinated, he would be replaced by another military man with a similar pro-Western bent. The Islamicists make a lot of noise, but do not have any real power base. It does look like the Shah situation where the U.S. is left holding the bag."

Miers Won't Even Show Up to "Not Recall" Who Fired Those Attorneys

President Bush has instructed former White House counsel Harriet Miers to defy a congressional subpoena [PDF] requiring her to testify at tomorrow's hearing on the controversial firings of eight United States attorneys. A letter from Miers' lawyer to House Judiciary Committee chair John Conyers (D-Mich.) confirmed that the onetime Supreme Court nominee will definitely be a no-show.

Bush's instructions could prove troublesome for both Miers and the White House. Miers, as a private citizen, could easily find herself slapped with contempt charges (and thrown in jail for up to a year) for defying the subpoena. The president could face even greater problems: One Talking Points Memo reader has dug up a law that seems to say that the president's order to defy the subpoena was itself illegal.

The bigger problem for Miers, as Conyers explains in a letter posted to Nancy Pelosi's blog, is that the subpoena represents a legal obligation to at least appear in front of Congress, while the president's instruction carries no such legal weight. Miers would have some more wiggle room if she followed the example of former White House political director Sara Taylor. Taylor, whom Wonkette called the love child of Monica Lewinsky and Linda Tripp, showed up to testify yesterday but refused to answer many of the committee's questions. There's a very convoluted scenario under which this latest debate over executive privilege could wind up before the Supremes, whose ranks Miers once hoped to join. It's fun to ponder: Would Sam Alito have to recuse himself?

—Nick Baumann

July 11, 2007

Weird Weather Watch: Heat Wave Killed Nearly 500 Californians

Last July was a scorcher in California. The state has officially reported that the record temperatures killed about 150 people. But an AP analysis of death counts by county reveals that nearly 500 more people died that month than normally do in July. The study did not find evidence of a cover-up, but that's not good news. States don't yet have the tools to determine what constitutes a weather-related death, meaning that many more will have to die before climate change is recognized as an urgent public health problem.

New Intelligence Estimate: Threat Level Orange. Dark Orange.

The United States is paying about $280 million dollars a day for the war in Iraq. As Mother Jones reported in our Iraq 101 package, it's good money after bad. A new intelligence assessment confirms it, concluding that al Qaeda is as strong now as it was just before the September 11 attacks. That and there has been a proliferation of groups with similar ideology. Heckuva job, Georgie.

ISG Report's Recommendations Outdated, Warn Critics

Growing numbers of Congressional Republicans are (at long last) warming up to the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group report. In fact, a bipartisan amendment to an upcoming defense authorization bill is being bandied about that would re-emphasize a diplomatic solution to the Iraq conflict, advocate an oil revenue bill acceptable to all three of the country's sectarian groups, and maybe (just maybe) withdraw most U.S. troops by 2008. The amendment puts Harry Reid and the Democrats in a tough position; they obviously prefer the ISG's recommendations to Bush's current game of wait-and-see, but it will take much more than that to appease their base.

For example, the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based progressive policy organization, today released a report warning that much of the ISG report has now been overtaken by events and urging lawmakers to reconsider its recommendations before blindly passing them into law.

A summary of the group's concerns:

Conditioning U.S. withdrawal on the "We'll stand down when they stand up" formula: They'll more likely stand up when we stand down. The continued presence of U.S. troops provides little motivation for Iraq's security forces to assert themselves.
Placing too much focus on Iraq's central government: The central government of Iraq is a fiction. Iraq's leaders disagree on the country's future direction and the country's political parties are bitterly divided along religious and sectarian lines. These divides may ultimately prove unbridgeable.
Paying insufficient attention to the Iraqi Constitution and the will of the Iraqi people: The ISG report calls for the central government to control Iraq's oil revenues, contrary to the wishes of the Iraqis themselves, who voted for decentralization. In addition, most Iraqis want U.S. forces to leave within a year and a sizeable majority (61%, according to one poll) support attacks against Americans.
Supporting the unconditional training of Iraq's security forces: The ISG report recommends a force of between 10,000 and 20,000 U.S. military advisors to train Iraqi troops, but advisors would require large numbers of additional U.S. troops for force protection, removing them from other key positions around the world. In addition, the Iraqi army continues to be unreliable and overridden by sectarian divisions. Loyalties to tribe and religious sect override loyalty to the state.
Offering undeveloped ideas on a regional diplomatic offensive: The ISG recommends the creation of a regional contact group to solve Iraq's internal and external problems diplomatically. Such a "one-size-fits-all" approach fails to recognize the individual concerns and differing interests of each of Iraq's neighbors.

Whether the Democrats will listen to these concerns remains an open question. If the amendment were to pass, it would (despite its flaws) be the toughest challenge yet to the Bush administration's approach to Iraq. But it might be too little of a good thing, especially for angry Democratic voters.

Intelligence Briefing on the Hill Today

The top intelligence analysts for the CIA, Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) provided a Global Security Assessment to the full House Armed Services Committee today. Committee chairman Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Missouri) presided at the hearing briefed by ODNI deputy director for analysis Thomas Fingar (.pdf), CIA director for intelligence John Kringen, and DIA deputy director for analysis Robert Cardillo.

It was sobering. Some key points:

--Concern that Al Qaeda is getting more comfortable in "ungoverned spaces" of Pakistan, due to various factors, including a recent agreement by the Pakistani authorities with tribal leaders to leave Islamic militants in Waziristan alone. Intelligence community seeing more signs Al Qaeda is regrouping, able to train, and communicate in Pakistan (also of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan). US policymakers have been reluctant to intervene in a major way in a sovereign country, especially as Musharraf's position is vulnerable, and out of the concern that what is now a problem in corners of Pakistan could explode across the whole country of 169 million people. There are a lot of potential terrorist recruits in Pakistan, one of the analysts said. (This focusing one's attention more by Pakistani analyst on BBC this morning comparing US relationship with Musharraf to "Shah of Iran" syndrome). Translation: duck.

--Expect a new National Intelligence Estimate on terrorist threats to the homeland (this is not yet officially out or "known" -- a couple journalists grabbed one of the CIA analysts during the break, his press aide politely monitoring the conversation), which Fingar rated the greatest threat to US national security. Al Qaida remains the greatest threat to the country. US intel community is increasingly concerned about Al Qaeda-linked militants in Pakistan using Europe, and in particular the UK, as a gateway to target the US homeland. Thwarted airplane plot last summer "very sophisticated" and of the type that concerns them, with its mix of UK and Pakistani-based terrorists working together on a plot to target the US.

--US intel community has recently acquired more intelligence on Iran's nuclear program. A consequently slightly delayed NIE on Iran's nuclear program should be delivered before the 110th Congress is out (slightly more harried DNI press aide trying to shepherd him away from us).

--Iraq -- Fingar suggested the US could control the "modalities" of how it spun say an eventual drawdown or withdrawal from Iraq. "It is too early to assess whether the new strategy being implemented in Iraq will allow lasting improvements to the situation. If violence is reduced and a window for political compromise is created, increased stability in Iraq will depend on how several issues evolve." Go read his briefing for more. (Also see this Woodward piece on what CIA director Mike Hayden really told the Iraq Study Group: Iraq instability seemed "irreversible.")

-- bin Laden is alive, the CIA analyst said, and he is deferring public relations to Zawahiri for a while now, as he's done at other points. Are they together, someone asked him. He didn't know. If he knew, he'd be on a plane over there, he said.

Just something to keep in mind from your reporter here. Iraq: 20-25 million people. Iran: 65 to 70 million people. Pakistan: 170 million people. And Pakistan is the one with the precipitous situation for its military government, widespread sympathies for the Taliban and Islamic jihadis, and the historical relationship with the UK whose citizens have easier access to US visas and entry. Oh yeah, and the bomb. Perhaps it's a good thing the USS Stennis carrier group is sailing back from the Persian Gulf to Hawaii. Sometimes, you don't get to choose your enemies, but they choose you.

Update: The new threat assessment, "Al Qaeda Better Positioned to Strike the West," will be briefed to the White House today. LAT: "Its conclusions will be incorporated into a more comprehensive and formal National Intelligence Estimate that is scheduled to be released this summer after two years of preparation." More from the AP.

Iran's Mullahs Breathing a Little Easier?

For much of the past year, two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups have been patrolling the Persian Gulf in what VP Dick Cheney called "a clear message to friends and adversaries alike [that] we'll stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region." Recent reports, however, suggest the U.S. build-up could be drawing down. The USS Enterprise — now underway to the Persian Gulf from its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia — is due to relieve the departing USS Stennis in a few weeks. But unless there's some change of plans, the USS Nimitiz will not be immediately replaced when it returns home in late September, making the Enterprise the sole carrier in the region. The Navy is calling the move routine, but according to one Bush Administration official, it is part of a conscious effort to reduce pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, Israeli Military Intelligence reported on Tuesday that Iran might be nearing a "technological threshold" that could enable it to begin producing nuclear weapons sometime within the next two years. Could it be that the Bush Administration will favor a diplomatic track? Maybe, but, as the inside source pointed out, U.S. warplanes at land bases in Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan are all within easy striking distance of Tehran.