MotherJones Blog: Bush and the Iran NIE: Don't Ask, Don't Tell

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Bush and the Iran NIE: Don't Ask, Don't Tell

George W. Bush has some adjustments to make.

At a news conference on October 17, President George W. Bush dropped a rhetorical bomb: "I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

Now that bomb has turned into a rotten egg, for the U.S. intelligence community yesterday released a National Intelligence Estimate that concludes that Iran halted a secret nuclear weapons program in 2003, that Tehran is "less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," and that Iran probably could not produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon until the 2010-2015 timeframe. That is, it seems there is no immediate reason to fret about Iran going nuclear and triggering World War III. This NIE may well make it impossible for hawks in and outside the administration to pull the trigger on any military action against Iran.

At a press conference this morning, Bush, looking comfortable, tried to deal with this new reality. He repeated a mantra: Iran was dangerous before the new NIE, and it's dangerous now. Nothing has changed, he insisted. He said over and over that if Iran transferred knowledge it has about enriching uranium to a "hidden" nuclear weapons program, that would pose a danger to the rest of the world. If. He was pressed by White House reporters asking whether his credibility--whatever existed of it following the Iraq WMD fiasco--was tarnished by the NIE? Of course, he refused to concede any such thing.

The issue is not just that his saber-rattling was not in sync with the intelligence but that Bush did not take care to vet his hyperbole before displaying it in public. At the press conference today, NBC News' David Gregory referred to Bush's World War III comment, noted that the Iranian program had apparently long been suspended before Bush uttered that remark, and asked Bush, "Can't you be accused of hyping this threat."

Bush replied by noting he had only been made aware of the NIE last week. But Bush went on to explain that intelligence czar Mike McConnell had told him in August that the intelligence community had developed "new information" on Iran. (This was obviously intelligence indicating that Iran was not operating an active nuclear weapons program.) McConnell, though, didn't tell Bush what this "new information" was. According to Bush, McConnell said it would take time to analyze the data.

But Bush did not do two things.

He did not ask McConnell what this "new information" indicated. Nor did he ask McConnell whether it might support or undermine the administration's current policy and talking points on Iran. Moreover, if Bush's account is the full story, McConnell did not come back to Bush after the World War III comment and suggest that he tone down the tough talk.

Think of it this way: if the intelligence committee had uncovered intelligence demonstrating that Iran was furiously developing a nuclear weapon, wouldn't that information had been quickly brought to the attention of the president? At least, Bush probably would have been informed that the analysts were working intensively on hot stuff that might back up his claims about Iran. But with new material contradicting the president, it took several months before he was made aware of its significance. Throughout that time, Bush apparently never asked what the new-but-not-fully-analyzed information might mean for his policy.

After the Iraq war intelligence mess, it was clear there needed to be some professional distance between the White House and the intelligence community so intelligence analysts could render judgments without worrying about how their conclusions would be received at the White House. But certainly not this much distance.

At the press conference, the questions, though, focused on the blunt matter of how much of a setback the NIE was for Bush. One reporter, referring to Bush's halting replies and seemingly uptight mood, asked if he was "dispirited" now that the "facts have failed you" regarding Iraq and Iran and if he was feeling "troubled" about a possible credibility gap. Bush replied, "I'm feeling pretty good about life." Maybe he likes surprises.

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo points out that The Washington Post reported yesterday that National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters that Bush in August or September was informed there was intelligence indicating Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program. So there's a discrepancy. Bush said he didn't know what the new Iran intelligence was; his chief national security aide (according to the Post) said Bush was told the basics. Anyone in Congress--how about Democrats on the intelligence committees--care to sort this out?

UPDATE II: Actually, in the transcript of Hadley's briefing, Hadley says that he believed Bush was first told about the new intelligence in August or September and that "when the President was told that we had some additional information, he was basically told: stand down; needs to be evaluated; we'll come to you and tell you what we think it means. So this was basically -- as we said, this is information that came in the last few months, and the intelligence community spent a lot time to get on top of it." Stand down? Hadley clarified: "The President was told, we have some information, we have some new information not to stand down -- said, we have some new information; give us some time to analyze it, and we will come to you and tell you what we think it means." It turns out there may not be such a contradiction between Bush's statements and Hadley's. But the old question returns: what did the president know and when did he know it?

Posted by: Underground Pirate on 12/05/07 at 2:03 AM Respond

Underground Pirate indeed! You speak with so much assurance about the certainty of a war. While the corporate powers that stick their hand up Bushes ass to get his mouth to work are probably hyperventilating in their excitement to start a war with Iran,[love those contractor dollars that bankrupt America] I suspect that everyone knows how much more difficult it would be to open that gate than it was to open the Iraq one. All kinds of poll cooking can suggest one thing Monday and another Friday about what Americans want, but the challenges on this one are steep - weakened military, tenuous international reputation, presidential candidates in Congress who know how much the Iraq War hurt GOP credibility and have to think about how they are going to get elected this time around.... In my very conservative commonwealth, Virginia [How conservative, you ask? Well, it was just made illegal for a man to rape his wife A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO] I am seeing less and less 'Support the Troops' stickers. Three years ago they were on about 4 in 5 cars and there were 'W' stickers on about 3 in 5, now considerably less on both counts. Underground Pirate, you shouldn't walk into a debate with so much swagger...if your view is meaningful to you, it doesn't need to have the flat, argumentative assertiveness of, say, our President.

Posted by: Paul Miller on 12/05/07 at 5:03 AM Respond

If intelligence is like fast food, I'll have an NIE whopper; hold the mad cowboy disease.

Posted by: andre on 12/05/07 at 12:30 PM Respond

Its more Chicken Little from the Chicken Hawk! While Bush revels in Iraq/Iran & our Presidential Candidates debate flag burning,gay rights,abortion, stem-cell research, & evolution...America's infrastructure is rotting,jobs are disappearing,& health care is affordable only for the rich or fortunate!

Posted by: Steve Dallas on 12/05/07 at 1:16 PM Respond

The most dangerous group on planet Earth is the despicably evil "w"/DICKY regime, HANDS DOWN!!!!!!!

Posted by: Ken Tiger on 12/05/07 at 1:33 PM Respond

So, apparently, our great POTUS, in time of war (that he lied us into) doesn't even read the NIE himself?
Isn't that his JOB?

Posted by: Jim on 12/05/07 at 2:19 PM Respond

President Bush doesn't let facts get in the way of his opinions. He disregarded cautions offered by the CIA leading up to his invasion of Iraq, and now he's out to dismiss the findings of the NIE. His sole purpose has been to invade Iraq, invade Iran, invade Syria--grab all their oil and install puppet governments. This man will never change his mind. It is set in stone. He needs to be removed from office. Dennis Kucinich's HR 333 shows the way. Impeach, convict, and jail this notorious war criminal.

Posted by: Len Carrier on 12/05/07 at 2:38 PM Respond

I AGREE. Whole heartedly.

Posted by: pwd on 12/05/07 at 3:01 PM Respond

so do i

however, Nancy Pelosi won't have it

btw: i've felt that anyone stupid enough to let Bush pull the wool over their eyes (or stupid enough to claim he did) should likewise be removed from such high offices as the ones they occupy, and the voters should have done it by now
but in most cases, we haven't

Posted by: jet on 12/05/07 at 3:24 PM Respond

Lemme see, "The President was told . . . we have some new information not to stand down "

As in "We have some new evidence that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but don't stop advocating war with Iran because it's pursuing and on the verge of getting nuclear weapons?"

Yeah, better not let the President know this stuff yet, it's not anything important. Besides, he's busy planning the attack on Iran.

Posted by: myiq2xu on 12/06/07 at 12:59 AM Respond

We know that a conscentious President is a very busy man with many responsibilities. But, seriously, when contemplating a second front in the Middle East, what document, what task could possibly be more important than the bloody NIE report? If Bush read nothing at all this year, he should have read this from first to last page the minute it was available. Even if it meant lip reading out loud and asking Cheney what the words meant.

But we don't have a conscentious President or a thoughtful President. We don't even have a "reality based" President. We have an ideologically driven President with a deluded messianic sense that his "beliefs" are synonymous with the truth and for whom facts are irrelevant.

It is high time we in the "reality based comunity" put a stop to this fact-free ideology-driven delusion. I know impeachment sounds radical but the judiciary, congress and the press have failed to hold this white house to account and have failed in their role as "checks and balances" to executive power. So it is left to "We the People" to write to our Congressmen, Senators and to the press to demand investigations to ascertain whether impeachment proceedings are justified. A President who doesn't read the definitive intelligence before threatening World War III and calling for a second preemptive war is surely guilty of ""treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." [US Constitution Art 2 section 4]

Posted by: Geoffrey on 12/06/07 at 6:37 AM Respond

I am from Iran and I can't express how happy I am that this report came out before another disaster starts in the region!
I hope, this report keeps the war-mongers in Washington quite until Bush is out of office.

Fingers crossed!!

Posted by: Roozbeh on 12/06/07 at 10:18 AM Respond

I guess I'm glad that they don't have the thing, but I question just how SMART all of this stuff really is.

What am I yammering on about? Well, I'll tell ya. See, it turns OUT that way back in history, 10-something, in PERSIA, modern-day Iran, they were working on 'alternative energy'. Windmills. Gee. Haven't we really stepped into the technological fast lane, here, in just 1000 years? Backward, forward, whatever, everybody's got all this high-tech, high-speed whiz-bang gee-golly-technium
flying around, it probably IS a small wonder that we haven't knocked ourselves back to sticks and rocks by now. And, what with the AIR Farce not being able to find their OWN stupid WMD's, well,
that just kind of lights the
candles on the cake, there, for the whole business.

But, don't just trash on Bush.
He's the movie star, but a lot of people put him there.
While the red-handed bandits play the Plame game, some
fairly level-headed and reform-oriented people are taking to the campaign platform to make their run for office. I'm likin' Paul and Kucinich, and I think if
they make good on the threat to run on the same ticket, we just might see the national debt start to fall, some day...wouldn't that be something...

Posted by: Bert on 12/07/07 at 1:19 AM Respond

Troops not only should not be supported, they should be prosecuted. Torturers and murderers should be prosecuted and punished. "I was only following orders" is not acceptable.

Posted by: Louis on 12/07/07 at 8:14 AM Respond

Couldn’t agree with you more Geoffrey! I had the same opinion going back to 2001 when my wife spent months on the road, counting Florida ballots. It was clear at that time that the previous death-governor of Texas was going to be a real disaster.

Posted by: AGrun on 12/08/07 at 4:27 PM Respond

Why is anyone surprised that this doorknob didn't read the most recent NIE? I'm sure he hasn't read anything more challenging than the instructions on the most recent Mario Bros. video game in the past eight years! Why is David Korn curious about why Bush didn't ask what the new intelligence on Iran showed for months? Did you see the retard when he was briefed after Hurricane Katrina? He didn't ask one damn question then either, despite an entire U.S. city being devastated! He fiddled with the knobs on the A/V equipment and looked for more candies in the candy dish on the table, for Chrissakes! How embarassing! He looked like a little kid, pretending to be president. Of course, it isn't surprising that he is mentally about 13 years old - experts say the use of alcohol and hard drugs retards or "freezes" your emotional and intellectual development at the time you start using. Since Bush was an alcoholic and cocaine abuser for 20+ years (from his late teens to age 40), it should be no surprise that his brain is retarded and fried beyond any usefulness. He really isn't qualified to pump gas at the local Texaco, when you come right down to it!

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on 12/12/07 at 11:09 AM Respond

As long as Israel wants to Iran bombed, then Bush will try to carry it out. No more wars for Israel, no more American blood for Israel.

Posted by: Prof. Wigglesworth on 12/12/07 at 12:36 PM Respond