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John McCain Takes Victory Momentum and Heads... Where?

MANCHESTER, NH — Everyone knows independents love John McCain. It turns out, Republicans love him too.

In all exit polling, John McCain dominated amongst the registered independents in New Hampshire who decided to vote in the Republican primary. But depending on who you ask, only 30 to 40 percent of the voters in that primary were indies; the rest were registered Republicans. According to MSNBC's exit polls, McCain took 35 percent of these voters, besting Romney by two points. In CNN's exit polls, Romney took 35 percent of these voters and McCain took 34 percent.

McCain won amongst men and amongst women. He won amongst voters who value national security and those who prioritize the economy. He won handily amongst lower-income voters, and managed to tie the former corporate CEO Romney amongst high-income voters. It was a decisive victory for McCain.

And it was stunning one for multiple reasons. McCain's campaign was pronounced all but dead due to lack of funds and staff upheavals last summer. Mitt Romney outspent McCain badly and hammered him with negative advertisements in this state. And no Massachusetts senator or governor has ever lost a primary in neighboring New Hampshire.

So New Hampshire's love affair with John McCain continues. Chants of "Mac is back" resounded through the Nashua Crowne Plaza Hotel last night before McCain gave his victory speech. McCain emphasized his ties to New Hampshire's voters, explaining that he tried to speak to them, listen to them, argue with them. He treated them with respect. "I didn't try to spin you," he said, emphasizing the fact that authenticity, one of his strengths, is perceived as one of Mitt Romney's weaknesses. "Tomorrow," he said, "we begin again."

But where? The next Republican primary is Michigan (Jan. 15), where Romney was born and his father was governor. McCain is polling fourth there, and Mike Huckabee has the most momentum. The primaries after Michigan are South Carolina and Nevada (both Jan. 19). In South Carolina, a state with which McCain has a mixed history, he is stuck in a three-way tie for third place. Huckabee is considered the frontrunner there, due to his connection to the state's many Christian conservatives. In Nevada, McCain polls fourth.

In the end, McCain's win here may actually help Rudy Giuliani. The former New York Mayor's plan to skip the early states on the Republican primary calendar looked foolish when he dropped off the media radar during the Iowa and New Hampshire circuses. But because neither Huckabee nor Romney can take momentum out of New Hampshire, it is very possible the Republican race will reach the Florida primary (Jan. 29) and Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5) without a clear frontrunner. Because Giuliani is polling exceptionally well in Florida, California, New York, and other large states due to vote then, he may just pull out a come-from-behind victory.

But then again, Giuliani did try to win in New Hampshire, no matter what his campaign claims, and took a tepid fourth. He beat Ron Paul by just a couple thousand votes. It is entirely possible that the only thing that really appeals to Republican voters this election season, with the exception of pockets of support here and there for assorted candidates, is the fabled none of the above.

Comments

my guess is this big delay by giuliani is nothing other than a big mistake. it shows that his experience in national politics is nil. momentum is everything, and in my opinion, its going to come down to a big fight between the mccain wing and the huckabee wing. i wish mccain would win that contest, but i fear it could be huckabee, who becomes a kind of new ronald reagan...

Posted by: matt leslie on 01/09/08 at 12:18 AM Respond

Jonathan Stein: "Everyone knows independents love John McCain."

Wha? You mean, in the same way everyone knows niggaz love watermelon? Or in the same way everyone knows that Iran is building nookyooler bombs?

O, astounding literary artist, who can pack such sublime WTFery into a single opening line!

Enjoy your cruise on the Failboat, Jonathan.

Posted by: dkmnow on 01/09/08 at 1:38 AM Respond

McCain's speech was jingoistic, super-patriotic in the worst sense, provocative, warline, and BORING. To talk of unpardonable foes and support for an immoral war is nuts. How is such xenophobia and saber rattling charming?
Only his supporters were wose, chanting "USA!" repeatedly. He encouraged them to think that we are the only country that counts. Sickening and dangerous.

Posted by: Caroline Ramsay Merriam on 01/09/08 at 12:13 PM Respond

About practicing gays, "...burned in their lust one toward another; men with men working (doing) that which is unseemly...who knowing the judgment of God, that they which commit such things are worthy of death (hell)." Romans 1:27 & 32 . Most people who accuse evangelicals are ignorant. It is their ignorance that leads them to false conclusions and accusations. They have this idea that if one religion is wrong (which could be true), then all religions are wrong (which is not true). It's like a man who drank a contaminated water and got sick and decided not to drink water anymore coz they are all contaminated. John Mc Cain accusing preachers as "intolerant" is an example of that ignorance. The bible is intolerant of gay practice and he doesn't know it. If a person is ignorant of the Bible, Christians who knew better would naturally avoid such a person, let alone vote for him for president.

Posted by: spiderman2 on 01/09/08 at 6:10 PM Respond

The polls you cited are from December. There is January poll data for South Carolina and Michigan, which shows that McCain has moved up, polling first or second in Michigan, depending on the poll:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

In South Carolina, he has pulled ahead for a solid second so far in South Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html

Still, these polls were taken before his victory in New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see if he can build momentum for strong placings or even wins in MI and SC.

Posted by: Nathan Rosenberg on 01/10/08 at 7:58 AM Respond

Mc Cain talking about "agents of intolerance" , global warming and an endorsement from Lieberman and yet getting high support from Republicans just shows where this election is heading into. It would be a Democrat sweep in the polls. The next president would be a democrat if this trend constinues. I guess it's more tolerable for me if Obama sits in the White House rather McCain. On hindsight, Clinton may even be a wiser choice.

Posted by: spiderman2 on 01/11/08 at 2:10 AM Respond

In the end McCain will get the nomination. This is simply reality. Huckabee and Romney have little hope.

Posted by: Ames Tiedeman on 01/13/08 at 4:09 PM Respond

dkmnow:

I agree with your points. Well said.

Posted by: Ames Tiedeman on 01/13/08 at 4:11 PM Respond

Caroline Ramsey:

May I ask you what countries you think count? Venezuala? Cuba? Russia? China? Iran? Whom do you think America should follow?

Thanks,
Ames

Posted by: Ames Tiedeman on 01/13/08 at 4:13 PM Respond

Nathan:

I think he (McCain) is getting ready to sweep many states.