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Obama's Chances in South Carolina: Can a Wine-Tracker Win?
Let's do some thinking about the Democratic race in South Carolina (primary: Jan. 26; current polling here). Considering the Democratic electorate there is roughly 50% white and 50% black, Obama ought to have a huge advantage. But his main opposition is the wife of America's first black president—the Clinton's have very strong ties to many parts of the black community—and the polls show a close race.
The easiest observation is this: Edwards continued presence in the race divides the white vote, making things easier for Obama.
But here's a more interesting hypothesis: South Carolina may prove Obama's viability more generally. Here's why. Obama is considered a "wine-track" candidate. He appeals to upper-class, well-educated voters. Professors love him. So do college kids on Facebook. He isn't a "beer-track" candidate, someone who appeals to working- and middle-class voters. Usually, beer-trackers get the support of traditional Democratic constituencies like labor. Here's a better explanation:
Since the 1960s, Democratic nominating contests regularly have come down to a struggle between a candidate who draws support primarily from upscale, economically comfortable voters liberal on social and foreign policy issues, and a rival who relies mostly on downscale, financially strained voters drawn to populist economics and somewhat more conservative views on cultural and national security issues.
It's not much of an oversimplification to say that the blue-collar Democrats tend to see elections as an arena for defending their interests, and the upscale voters see them as an opportunity to affirm their values.
Thing is, wine-trackers don't win. Adlai Stevenson, Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart, Bill Bradley, John Kerry (Bradley and Kerry have endorsed Obama)... they've all lost in either the primary or the general.
But Obama might rewrite the equation. If you take the wine-track voters (who looove the fact that Obama has written books, for example), but you add an unprecendent number of young and independent voters, and you add a hefty share of black voters to that, now you've got a coalition that can beat the working class block that traditionally sides with the establishment candidate.
Two other notes, re: Kerry and Richardson, after the jump.
The Kerry endorsement, which was just announced, is a bit slap in the face to Edwards, who ran on a ticket with Kerry in 2004. But Edwards reacted graciously, saying, "Our country and our Party are stronger because of John's service, and I respect his decision. When we were running against each other and on the same ticket, John and I agreed on many issues. I continue to believe that this election is about the future, not the past, and that the country needs a President who will fight aggressively to end the status quo." Translation: I respect John Kerry, but he's a figure of the past. And besides, he's part of the Washington system that I've spent this campaign criticizing.
After struggling to catch fire for months, Bill Richardson is dropping out. I've been struggling for something to say about this, and I can't find anything. Some of his supporters probably liked his experience and will drift toward Clinton. Some probably liked his opposition to the war and will drift to Edwards or Obama. Any Richardson supporters want to give their thoughts in the comments?
Comments
Why is everyone in love with Barack Obama? Why is three years in the Senate experience enough in these difficult times? It's all flash and no substance. The senator speaks in generalities, without specifically outlining his plans. Sen. Edwards, on the other hand, offers a clear outline of what he will do as president. I could care less what John Kerry says, John Edwards is the best choice for victory in November. Either of the other candidates will lose to the GOP nominee, regardless of who it is.
Richardson voters like his authenticity. Whomever is seen as the authentic candidate.
Obama must remain aggressive and must not fight the "incumbent campaign".
For Hillary it's a question of whether she can get out of her own way and re-invent herself as someone who cares about the people.
In NH Edwards's attacks helped Hillary, in SC his presence might split the anti-black vote. Remember Edwards won SC.
In case you have forgotten: Don't believe what people say to pollsters or what pollsters tell us.
Posted by: yiannis on 01/10/08 at 10:16 AM Respond
John Edwards is a good man and a perfectly acceptable candidate, and Hillary Clinton is exceptional, but neither one has shown the charisma to inspire Americans, young and old, to get involved and solve problems. He has demonstrated, both at the state and national level, that he is able to lead lawmakers of all persuasions (conservative, liberal, etc.) to work together to solve problems. Go to his website and get informed. Do not base your judgment of what the press says. Obama is real, and he has the stuff of a great statesman.
Posted by: DJ on 01/10/08 at 10:18 AM Respond
Will everyone PLEASE stop referring to BC as the first black president? That's a ridiculous & offensive notion.
Also, the argument that Obama lacks experience is getting tired. He has more experience as an elected public official than Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards. And by the way, the last Senator elected to the White House was also a first-term Senator - John F. Kennedy.
Posted by: nic on 01/10/08 at 10:29 AM Respond
To divide voters into 'wine-trackers' and 'beer trackers' is an oversimplification. Obama brings voters to his campaign because he inspires them, comes across as very honest, and is willing to become the voice of an 'average' American who wants and is asking for change, rather than being the agent of the status quo and the organized establishment, i.e. Hillary.
People want the country to go to a different track and Obama will be the conductor.
Posted by: Jorge on 01/10/08 at 11:08 AM Respond
Anyone who has the Audacity to Hope for a better America will loves Obama, hope is not a bad thing as some candidates would have us believe. Those who understand the dire situation this country is in and even in the midst of that corporate/partisanship entrenchment are willing to believe that change is possible hear their voice in Obama's and that is precisely what is missing in Washighton "The Voice of the People" What the people want and stand up for they get- politicians have forgotten that. What do you want to hear from a candidate 1% of the electorate has voted this is the only the beginning, the plan will come in time as this race continues on and everyone else defines their "change methodology" Senator Obama is a professor of Constitutional law he probally knows more about what makes this country unique and the standard bearer of freedom, democracy, and liberty than any potential candidate, lest your feel that a comphrehensive understanding of the constitution will not be a asset to our next President. "The Constitution did not intent on this country being the hostage to some multi-national military industrial complex, neither any multi-nation corporation with more lobbyist than you could even fit into the US congressional hall. Any politician, pundit or citizen for that matter who feels that this is just the way things are and attempting to change that is fairly tale logic, represents last remnants of a dying generation past it's prime or at least very close to their peak. for your information Obama's political career did not start with his senate appointment do your research. Your clearly a NEOCON anyway who feels that Hilary will further assist the GOP in polarizing the electorate. An Obama/ Clinton or Clinton/ Obama strategy will difuse that methodology anyway. Your so called "flash" is reviving the electorate in this country anyone who could cast that as a negative is anti-american maybe you need a refresher course or two in the "Constitution" since evidently you take it for granted.
Posted by: Samson on 01/10/08 at 11:56 AM Respond
David Hutton: People don't love Obama - they love the opportunity he presents, which is entirely unique. I like Edwards a lot, too, but I find it humorous that you dig into Obama on experience because your candidate was in the Senate three more years than he was. BURN!
Anyway - from health care to the economy to the war, you may not agree with Obama, but calling him non-specific is a lie. His campaign is focused on the bigger picture, but that doesn't mean the details don't exist.
Posted by: Adam, Pittsburgh on 01/10/08 at 12:00 PM Respond
Anyone who has the Audacity to Hope for a better America will love Obama, hope is not a bad thing as some candidates would have us believe. Those who understand the dire situation that this country is in and even in the midst of that corporate/partisanship entrenchment still are willing to believe that change is possible hear their voice in Obama's and that is precisely what is missing in Washighton "The Voice of the People" What the people want and stand up for they get- politicians have forgotten that. What do you want to hear from a candidate 1% of the electorate has voted this is the only the beginning, the plan will come in time as this race continues on and everyone else defines their "change methodology" FYI Senator Obama is a professor of Constitutional law he probally knows more about what makes this country unique and the accepted standard bearer of freedom, democracy, and liberty. Lest your feel that a comphrehensive understanding of the constitution will not be a asset to our next President. "The Constitution" did not intent on this country being held hostage by some multi-national military industrial complex, neither any multi-nation corporation with more lobbyist than you could even fit into the US congressional hall. Any politician, pundit or citizen for that matter who feels that this is just the way things are and that attempting to change that is an endeavor rooted in fairly tale logic, represents the last remnants of a dying generation long past it's prime or at least very close to their peak. For your information Obama's political career did not start with his senate appointment do your own research. Your clearly a NEOCON anyway who feels that Hilary will further assist the GOP in polarizing the electorate. An Obama/ Clinton or Clinton/ Obama strategy will difuse that methodology anyway. Your so called "flash" is actually effective appeal to the electorate in this country to stand up a participate in government the way the Constitution admonishes them to anyone who could cast that as a negative is anti-american rebel-rouser and maybe you need a refresher course or two in the "Constitution" since evidently you take it for granted. President Obama unlike your candidate could teach that course.
Posted by: who rutryn2CONvince on 01/10/08 at 12:07 PM Respond
RE:
Obama's Chances in South Carolina: Can a Wine-Tracker Win?
-----------
IN THE DEPTH OF THE UNKNOWN, THERE ARE NECESSARY CONQUESTS
The well-known NASA scientist and author of popular scientific works, Professor Carl Sagan, together with his wife Linda, among other people, wrote the famous Space Message engraved on Pioneer 10 and meant for possible extraterrestrial civilizations which might be discovered — who knows? — somewhere in our Galaxy. Professor Sagan is a master of the art of using humor, and he is fond of allegories. That is why Lucien Bonnet wrote to himin the form of a parable on April 10, 1978.
Montreal, April 10, 1978
Dear Dr. Sagan:
It sometimes happens that a dreambecomes a reality. That’s the case today. Through Mr. Emil P. Ericksen, Economic Officer of the Consulate General of the United States of America in Montreal, I am in communication with the American scientist whose works and research I most admire.
I would like to address a simple message to Professor Carl Sagan and his wife, who feel, as the year 2000 approaches, that the time is ripe to make our presence known by sending signals to other possible intelligent beings in the Universe. The message, which is the result of my patient research, I formulate as follows:
On the cosmic scale, as on the terrestrial scale, blackness is an integral part of color and light processes.
My purpose is to inform you of this particular subject and the reasons that have led me to carry out my research, in the context of the problems of the very small country, whose history is as tortured as its geography, where I was born and grew up: Haiti, whose name means “land of mountains”. This country has been faced for years with the difficulties inherent to any collectivity confronted with a problem of identity. In Canada, where I live and to which I have become acclimatized, this subject still motivates my research, propels my efforts and explains the audacity of my words. In the particular context of a centuries-old conflict, where personal interest and racial origins confront each other, it is essential that we get to the bottom of things. At this point, it would be as well to point out that branch of energy physics, namely optics, where scientific taboos concerning color, darkness and light are furthered and maintained by trade secrets, patents and vested interests. A rational search for original, and even avant-garde, answers on a scientific and intellectual level would seem to be a necessary prerequisite to establishing a balanced situation.
Not being a “scientist”, (because sometimes, facts are so obvious that they “hit you in the eye but, like ostriches, people bury their heads in the sand) but rather, perhaps the most obscure of all obscure researchers of all obscure ages, I amasking a special favor from Professor Sagan. I would like him to agree to examine my modest results and the demonstration there of, backed up by photos and films. Needless to say, they may be freely used for any purposes deemed necessary to the success of my undertaking. On one film, I wanted to assemble in my own way the elements and conditions that I think are indispensable to the analysis and synthesis of colors. I amsubmitting four films called “color separations” and the color proofs to support this finding.
The sentences I quote below are yours. They are taken from an interview that you gave to a French magazine reporter:
“…after Apollo, scientists were discouraged. Do you know why they were disheartened? Because the sky above the Moon is black. That made them depressed. Do you think this is a joke? Not at all. Scientists are more fragile than they look. But the sky above Mars is rose-colored and that gave them hope.”4
4 Delaprée, Catherine “ L’homme clef de Viking: Et maintenant il faut tout revoir…”, (Le Point, August 16, 1976, pp. 48,49) [our translation]
I can see you and Mrs. Sagan smiling, seeming to say, “Roses live the life span of a rose, the space of one morning.”
The solution to the enigma of Space is not a “one-morning” task. Its darkness of an extraordinary depth, always so secretive and so intriguing, bordering on despair and insanity, fear and disgust, hatred and damnation, a consequence of ignorance or indifference, jealously hides incredible resources that would be of benefit to science, perceived only by such advanced, and wise, researchers as Professor Sagan.
With all due respect to the biblical Genesis, which from generation to generation teaches those who wish to hear it their way that “God divided the light from the darkness” (Gen. 1:4), and with all due respect to Sir Isaac Newton, who showed us all the colors of the rainbow with his prism, but who left us in the dark about the greatest unknown of all times, darkness itself, I insist that darkness — “the black rose of space”, arbitrarily denied as a positive value, always perceived negatively, discreet, hardly envious of the light which it absorbs, the better to conserve it — has passed for the absence of light, while in reality it is the extension of light.
Since the beginning of time, a harmonious and complementary state has existed between light and darkness, whose equivalent effects are carefully balanced at the cosmic level, making us think, as sages of all ages have suggested, like Lavoisier, that in this coherent universe, “nothing is created, nothing is lost, everything is transformed”.
The question we ask ourselves most often is this: “What would our lives be without light?” All things being equal, and according to the Law of Conservation of Matter and Energy, we might ask, “What would life be without darkness?” Whether we say “darkness is an absence of light” or “light is an absence of darkness”, is this not a simple question of semantics?
Reconciling light with darkness is a simple message that any future human or extraterrestrial space traveler should be able to grasp without too much difficulty. In the interests of any advanced civilization, obtaining a workable combination of visible and invisible forms of matter or energy is a chance to surpass ourselves by extending our own limits.
The so-called luminous part of the Universe, be it ever so brilliant, so forceful, that it seems to eclipse all the rest, while left in the shadow of its over whelming radiance, cannot by itself constitute a whole. The latter is left to the perception and investigation of scientists—but again, we must have the courage to get to the bottom of things.
The bottom of things is often veiled by mentalities. Mentalities depend on the human brain. It is interesting to note that the thing we are most proud of, this wonderful human brain — physically, without our realizing it — has always functioned in utter darkness. Man’s skull constitutes, without a doubt, the best model of a dark room which has ever been conceived. On the optical as well as the psychological plane, one can easily imagine what roadblocks are likely to be encountered. When we wish to refer to the superior abilities of man, weuse the term “gray matter”. Gray matter in a dark room, with or without a prism — what a delicate situation! Isn’t it where all the subtlety lies?
From the gray lunar soil of the Moon and in the concerted harmony of constructive forms, visible and invisible, of channeled light energy, the white rose and the black rose of the Cosmos and the possibility of roses in all color shades — enough to make the sky of Mars blush red — represent the true challenge of space and the spaceship in modern times. Inertia, spectral speed, speed equal to or higher than that of light, and the scientifically controlled reversibility of the phenomenon, what a new synthesis, but also what a liberation! To compare is not to prove, but the dark hidden side of the Moon, however mysterious it may be, is not a path of no return.
At the edge of light, there is darkness. At the edge of darkness, we can find light. Reconciling the “Children of Light” (I Thess. 5:5) — of the zenith, the rising sun and the setting sun — with the “Children of Darkness” (I Thess. 5:6) could perhaps one day become a question of scientific mentality.
“And there was evening and there was morning…” (Gen. 1:5).
Could this, Professor, be one of the most harmonious aspects of the vital cycle of space?
Thank you for your attention to my letter.
Yours very truly,
Lucien Bonnet
http://www.contact-canadahaiti.ca
PLEASE, SEE “Bill A Ri And There Was Light!”
Posted by: Lucien BONNET on 01/10/08 at 12:20 PM Respond
South Carolina voters don't care about liquid coal- so he should be alright.
Posted by: Liberal Larry on 01/10/08 at 6:52 PM Respond
David Hutton,
Obviously, you have not read about Senator Obama's plans on his website, you have some details there, but the real issue is not writing a bunch of details on a website for any candidate. Only James K Polk and George Washington and maybe Lincoln have ever met the campaign promises. It is about leadership to collaborate with and motivate people to get something done. Obama has this capability at a high level. Lincoln had this along with alot less experience than Obama and many say he was our best president.
Posted by: geoffgw on 01/13/08 at 3:21 PM Respond
OBama is a blaton lier and his ass kissers kerry a edwards .I listened to what Hillary said about Martin Luther King she never said nothing about Him, but that Johnson Signed the bill to pass on civial rights bill .nothing more and A vote for Oama on his change lol lol thats right you will have more change in your pockets and no dollars in you wallet just change .wow there is no way im voting for theses bigots and liers and muslis.
Posted by: Rmeoses on 01/13/08 at 6:15 PM Respond
If Hillary loses all that crossed to vote for will throw their votes to John MCcain.wow Obama you are a lier and a true moron if you actually think you can use your race card against Hillary now you are showing your true ignorance.And your true muslim ways you must still be using that coccaine and pot .
Posted by: Rmeoses on 01/13/08 at 6:30 PM Respond
Well, I don't care what anyone says. I will vote for who I want and that's Barack Obama. Hahaha, I think I'm the only one who isn't fooled by the Clintons.
Posted by: AGirl on 01/20/08 at 12:38 PM Respond
I feel so used and contrived....
A sales rep is a sales rep. Are
we so niave that we still think the President is THE decision maker? Don't you see Jeff Dunham
next to him?? Reality check folks. The Stock Market "Generals" run the show....ask Mr. Bernanke....
Posted by: xlent4putt on 02/25/08 at 7:39 AM Respond
The subject of a very wonderful and distinct
I thank you for continuing excellence
Thank you
Posted by: شباب ليبيا on 05/25/08 at 6:34 AM Respond
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Posted by: David Hutton on 01/10/08 at 9:56 AM Respond