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Another NH Explanation — The Hillary Effect

Add another potential explanation for Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire victory to my on-the-fly list composed on election night: the Hillary Effect.

The idea, courtesy of Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks, is that supporting Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary opens a voter up to accusations of being (1) for the old guard; (2) resistant to change; (3) blind to all of Obama's messianic glory; (4) motivated by a simple gender-based preference, if you are a woman; and/or (5) subtly or not so subtly motivated by race, if you are white. And Hillary supporters just don't want to put up with it any more. They don't want to be judged by their fellow liberals and they don't want to be yelled at by conservatives. So they are purposefully vague when they are polled (either suggesting that they are undecided, or for another candidate), and then pull the lever for HRC in the privacy of the voting booth.

Something to consider...






Comments

I have trouble with the idea people wouldn't admit to pollsters that they supported Clinton, or pretended to support Obama. There isn't any evidence for it. Yes, I've heard of "the Bradley effect", but I just haven't seen anything beyond speculation that people lie to pollsters about how they intend to vote. There is evidence that undecided voters can move like a pack on election day, and it appears that's what happened. The polls were right about all other candidates, but Clinton's gains are easily explained by the bulk of undecideds moving to her once they had to pick someone. There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that many people reacted badly to the viciousness of the attacks on Clinton the last few days, so a simple explanation of the movement is it was a protest against sexism.

As an outsider looking in, I may not be allowed to have an opinion on the American primaries but I must retain the hope that Americans are not so isolationist and arrogant that they dismiss the opinions of non-Americans as unworthy of consideration. I have been stunned by the level of vituperation directed at Hillary Clinton, the misuse of language and the falsehoods, For instance, her appearance has been subjected to the type of sneering scrutiny which male candidates are spared; the Clintons did not "denigrate" - which means to blacken - Senator Obama but disparaged his lack of experience. The verbs "denigrate" and "disparage" are quite different in degrees of severity. I've also read that Hillary Clinton "shed" tears and this is untrue. Even the strongest person is merely mortal and liable to exhaustion, especially when under a barrage of personalised attacks from a lot of tubby, ugly male commentators. If I were an American voter, I would be unhappy with Hillary Clinton's support for partial birth abortion but Barack Obama has done a whirligig on this painful topic and the gloves are not off for him. Thanks to the Internet, everyone in the Anglophone world, from my own little island on the western edge of Europe to Australia and New Zealand, is interested in the American election, since it has ramifications for everyone on this planet. Europeans like to think of Americans as naive but the Irish have always loved the Americans, until recently and for obvious reasons. We gave you JFK and Obama is no JFK nor is he a MLK. His veiled references to the Civil Rights struggle in the US are being cleverly used to link him with the sufferings of slaves but his grandmother is a free African living in Kenya. The genealogists are delving deeper and he is distantly related to Dick Cheney on his matrilineal line. The biggest irony of all would be to find that Obama's and Cheney's common ancestor had been a slave-owner. The American media may be afraid to explore that one but that harridan, Camille Paglia, was not afraid to explore Hillary's psyche today in one of the most malicious pieces I've ever read. Don't you Americans have any sense of fair play or decent standards any more? We want to respect the U.S. again as a meritocracy, as bright as "a good deed in a naughty world" but it is becoming very difficult. ALL the candidates should be examined with the same thoroughness that Hillary Clintion is receiving and I was so disappointed to find that Carl Bernstein is now part of a self-important cabal. I'm a private individual with no attachment to any political party here in Ireland or elsewhere but I certainly have my own views and an interest in current affairs. Being part of the herd is not my thing, so if I say that I think Senator Obama's ears are funny (as in peculiar or ha-ha) please don't bother me with a lot of codswallop about racism. One of my grandfathers had very large ears but I'm certain I'm not related to Obama or Cheney. Around l900 some of my male relatives went to the New World - or it could have been a decade earlier - but they all had to do the hard labour of all the immigrants of that era to build up what developed into a great country, the USA. You have let us all down in the final years of the twentieth century but I, and many more, want to admire you again.

Posted by: Maureen O'Donnell on 01/10/08 at 9:43 AM  Respond

I support Hillary and I hope she wins. We need change and we need it NOW! I am a Diné and I support gay marriages. I am the Anti-gun activist. I was born for the Towering House People Clan and live for the Sleeping Rock People Clan. I am also a homosexual and I support gay marriages.
I don't believe marriage is used for procreation, but for the sake of love. If two people love one another, they have the right to wed, regardless of sexuality.

Not only that, in the Diné culture, homosexuals are to be respected and accepted, because homosexuals can perform both male and female characteristics. We even have roles in ceremonies, myths and tales, and as well as our traditions.

Like all indigenous tribes and ancient civilizations, homosexuality is a third gender, and marriage was for everyone. But, sadly, many of the Diné people are corrupted by the western beliefs and Christianity, causing many natives to view gays as perverted or sodomites.

But, in the early ages of Christianity, the church also wed homosexuals. Historical records even prove it.

I don't think it's right to oppress a group of people, or claim that being a homosexual leads to a life of damnation. We are part of humanity. It's a universal humane truth.


Posted by: Buddy Hinton Sturmgewehr on 01/10/08 at 11:00 AM  Respond

To support my assertion Clinton's sudden support came from a response to sexism, and not from racism (or, to mention the other theory, from election fraud), I found this article in my local daily: http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/13663661.html

To summarize: Hillary voters are ashamed to admit it, as they should be.

Posted by: out of the loop on 01/10/08 at 3:13 PM  Respond

Hilliary stole the election, just like Bush did in Florida. CONCORD, N.H. (AP) - Democrat Dennis Kucinich, who won less than 2 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, said Thursday he wants a recount to ensure that all ballots in his party's contest were counted. The Ohio congressman cited "serious and credible reports, allegations and rumors" about the integrity of Tuesday results.

Posted by: Jeffrey Cohen on 01/11/08 at 11:35 AM  Respond

...how abouta recount!

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/73475/

Posted by: BC on 01/12/08 at 8:51 AM  Respond

The subject of a very wonderful and distinct

I thank you for continuing excellence

Thank you

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