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May 13, 2008

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Nevada Results Reveal A Big Challenge for Obama: How To Win Die-Hard Dems?

Ever wake up in Las Vegas the morning after a not-so-good night? Barack Obama has not yet gotten the chance to sleep off the Nevada caucus returns--and he's not likely to be getting much sleep between now and Supersaturated Tuesday on February 5--but the Nevada results ought to be troubling for the Obama camp (even though the Nevada caucus was a rather odd affair). Exit polls showed that Hillary Clinton, who won by 6 points, scored well with women, Hispanics, and working-class voters fretting about the recession. The problem for Obama: this is a big chunk of the Democratic electorate.

Sasha Abramsky focuses on the lemonade: Obama was competitive with Clinton in rural white areas. But even if Obama can scoop up John Edwards voters in future contests--Edwards ran a distant third in Nevada, bagging about 5 percent of the vote--Clinton is sitting on a damn good base at the moment: women, Latinos and blue-collar Dems. It will be hard to win the Democratic nomination without those blocs.

Obama could well triumph in South Carolina, depending on how African-Americans vote. But his true political challenge is besting Clinton among the critical die-hard Democratic slices. And with February 5 fast approaching, he doesn't have much time to win over these voters.






Comments

Makes it seem like the NEA lawsuit was unnecessary.

Posted by: capt on 01/19/08 at 3:56 PM  Respond

Obama's video on healthcare reform has been getting a lot of playtime on RxPop!

In my opinion the election should be won by the candidate that supports the best healthcare reform plan. Healthcare Reform should be the single most important topic of the '08 elections.

I fear more, another November Wednesday hangover with Clinton, another Bush or ANY Bush-hugging Repugnant Celebrating on the front pages.

I fear our long, national nightmare is just beginning.

-T

Posted by: TomHodges on 01/20/08 at 7:51 AM  Respond

Hey, T. The idea that Clinton is about equal to Bush is dangerous. Also, it is clearly false. I agree that the idea of a Hillary Clinton administration is not as thrilling as the thought of an Obama administration. But she is a sincere Democrat and a woman with serious ideas and beliefs.

Posted by: Michael S on 01/20/08 at 8:34 AM  Respond

Mike: Clinton might be pro-choice and maybe her SCOTUS picks would be better but her DLC triangulation on everything from the war to torture to Iran doesn't make me confident in her abilities to actually act like a democrat.

We see how BJC threw gays, the poor, minorities.
, and immigrants under the bus just to say he passed some legislation.

What makes anyone think it will be significantly different this time?

There are enough conservative Dems willing to side with the GOP (who will obtruct HRC just out of spite) that I can't see how she'd be able to do anything that didn't lean right.

Posted by: Jay on 01/20/08 at 11:23 AM  Respond

I have known the woman and her bounder for years and there is not a sincere bone in her body --unless you count sincere dedication to her blind ambition. This is a Dynastic U-Turn we can not afford.

Posted by: bink1 on 01/20/08 at 3:30 PM  Respond

The Clintons have intentionally distorted Barack Obama's record on a number of issues. People are tired of politicians who lie and distort their opponent's records to gain the edge. Our politicians should be held to a higher standard. We should have politicians who are honest and above tactics which make them look irresponsible and dishonest and one of low-moral character. After all we teach our children to be honest and not to lie. In otherwords how can you trust candidates to be honest with you when they are not honest on the campaign trail. Politicians who lie and distort are not honorable people, and basically unethical -- not the kind of people we want to run or represent our country. I can only hope that Barack Obama will not stoop down to their level while trying to set his record straight, which he must, against the lies and distortion their campaign are trying to spill. These tactics are old time party politics and should be a thing of the past as we move towards the 21st Century, towards cleaner air, cleaner water, cleaner politics, towards a more holistic way of living. It is a greater duty and in the best interest of the country for Barack Obama to continue to stay positive and hopeful while attempting to bring this country together and lift it up from fear an a distrust of one another -- to continue to show the American people and the world there is another way to run for office other than smear and fear. That is why Obama and Huckabee are so appealing. They are authentic and each in their own way are trying to lead the Americans away from dirty campaigning, lies and distortion. How can a country be blessed after all that ugly and dirty fighting, it can't be. And why do we allow this behavior to be acceptable?

Posted by: bacalove on 01/21/08 at 4:00 AM  Respond

Except that latinos don't vote. I would have to pay my blue-collar latino neighbors to go to the polls and then it might upset the pride they take in never voting. It's a badge of honor.

Posted by: Riverman on 01/21/08 at 9:34 AM  Respond

Nevada showed that Mexicans will not vote for a Black man. That is why Blacks have to stick together.

Posted by: Roshanda on 01/21/08 at 11:28 AM  Respond

I have begun to believe this new clinton ploy is as calculated as all the rest. If bclinton plays the attack dog it serves TWO PURPOSES: they get their slander out there and she gets to be the VICTIM of a crazy spouse and not responsible for the slander. SHE CAN NOT WIN WITHOUT HIM but must not appear to be on the attack.
They have repeatedly used triangulation to gain their edge over opponents...the media will continuse to have bill on and he can parse words and slime when he wants. This is just another trip down memory
lane. Remember Carville and Begala are back in the fold..so expect the worst.

Posted by: docb on 01/21/08 at 1:39 PM  Respond

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