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The Unresolved Questions of the Florida Primary

There are so many story lines in the presidential races coming out of Florida and heading into February 5. Here are four key ones.

1. Can John McCain be beat? If John McCain gets Rudy Giuliani's endorsement today, as expected, he will be an incredibly formidable force on February 5. He'll likely gobble up Giuliani's donors and key staffers (meaning additional money and organization), and build on his already impressive lead among moderate Republicans.

Exit polls showed yesterday that Mitt Romney beat John McCain among voters who identified as "conservative," and beat him badly among voters who identified as "very conservative." That spells out Romney's strategy from here on out: move to the right, and target states with conservative electorates (Georgia), and not moderate ones (California). The problem for Romney is that the conservative states on the Feb. 5 map are mostly southern, meaning that Mike Huckabee, who is staying in the race, will likely soak up a lot of votes, putting Romney in a real bind. Huckabee has a lot of personal affection for John McCain (and reportedly hates Romney), which makes one wonder if he is deliberately staying in a race he knows he cannot win in order to help facilitate McCain's triumph over Romney.

If Mitt Romney goes negative (and he's shown a willingness to go negative over the course of this campaign), McCain has two choices. He can either smack back, as he did in Florida with grossly misleading claims about Romney's record on the Iraq War and by saying Romney was once for "special rights" for homosexuals and "abortion on demand," or he can take the high road (only frontrunner's allowed!) and paint Romney as desperate. Either way, he has shown that he has learned from his 2000 experience, in which he got run out of the race by negative ads in South Carolina.

Romney had a number of advantages in Florida. He had built a strong organization in the state over the course of a year, while John McCain scrapped his entire Florida machine in summer 2007 when his campaign was on life support. Romney reportedly ran eight or nine times as many ads as McCain. McCain didn't air his first ad until January; Romney took to airwaves last fall. Half of Floridians voting in the GOP primary yesterday cited the economy as the most important issue, which should have played to Romney's advantage.

And yet, Romney's struggles might be explained by a story that Mike Huckabee used to tell in Iowa. A dog food manufacturer is struggling to make a profit. He calls all of his people together and says, "We have the best advertisements, the best packaging, the best distribution, the best business model. Why isn't the money coming in?" Someone slowly raises their hand in the back of the room and says, "The dogs just won't eat the darn stuff, sir."

If Mitt Romney is the dog food nobody wants, John McCain should get gobbled up on February 5.

2. Did Rudy Giuliani run one of the worst campaigns in modern American history? Yes. Who would have thought Rudy Giuliani would be one and done? It's just stunning. I think Giuliani's demise proves the primacy of media coverage in voters' decision-making. Giuliani was in Florida for 50 days. He traveled all over. He poured gobs of money into the state. And yet the fact that McCain, Romney, and even Huckabee were constantly in the news due to their wins and strong performances in IA, NH, MI, and SC over came all of that.

3. Should Hillary Clinton's victory in Florida yesterday count for much? With the Democratic race in Florida devoid of delegates (Florida is being punished by the DNC for moving its primary before February 5), Clinton's win only matters in the fairy tale world of photo ops, spin, and media momentum. The Clinton campaign has been pushing hard to seat Florida's delegates, which would give the Clinton campaign a windfall of badly needed delegates at the convention and make Florida look like it ought to count for something. It held a conference call with reporters yesterday in which they pointed out that Florida has more voters than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. "We believe the voices of Florida voters should be heard," said campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle.

Clinton had strong support among Florida's many older voters, New York transplants, and Latinos—three natural bases of support for her. But let's get real. Hillary Clinton does well in any state that hasn't seen the candidates up close. States with high numbers of what political experts call "low-information voters" usually give Hillary big leads in the polls because voters there make judgments based largely on name recognition and loyalty. They know Hillary. They think, "The Clinton years were pretty good; certainly better than the Bush years. I can get behind eight more years of that." But in states where the electorate gets weeks or months to see the candidates face to face, the numbers even out. Barack Obama wins some of those states, and John Edwards does better than expected.

And that's ultimately why this win is a phony one for the Clinton. The Obama campaign held its own conference call yesterday in which John Kerry blasted Clinton's attempt to spin Florida. The campaign called Clinton's ploy "too clever by half." What they should have done is pointed out that Clinton would love it if every state never got a look at the candidates. Clinton-brand dog food is better than Romney-brand, but not by much.

4. Was yesterday night really a win for the Democratic Party? Yes. Almost two-thirds of voters in the Republican primary rejected President's Bush stewardship of the economy, calling the condition of the economy unsatisfactory or poor. The numbers were worse among Democrats. On what is now without doubt the most important issue of the campaign, people of all stripes are not content with Republican leadership.

And look at the vote totals. In a primary the Democratic Party declared null and void, 850,000 people turned out to vote for Hillary Clinton. John McCain, winner of the GOP race, took just 690,000. The total turnout for the Dems was about 1.7 million; total turnout for the GOP was 1.9 million. The Republicans poured everything they had into Florida, while the Democrats were banned from campaigning! It's possible that Mike Huckabee's inedible dog food is really the Republican Party itself.

Comments

I hope the current national distaste for the GOP holds out long enough to get us through November. It would be best, however, if we got someone who could implement some obvious improvements for middle and lower income people to help capture a second four years, too. In all fairness, while I have my favorites of the three, I think each of them, with the right cabinet and a senate and congress majority on their side, could make improvements.

Posted by: Paul Miller on 01/30/08 at 5:35 AM Respond

Huckabee is the only guy left who can challenge McCain for the nomination. Romney can't win in moderate states ) and he is doomed in the South and Midwest. (even if Huckabee were out, southern and midwesterners aren't going to vote for a social moderate!) What's left? He should bow out now and support Huckabee. LOOK AT THE DELEGATE MAP. Romney is done and if he stays in the race then McCain will be our nominee.

Posted by: Brett on 01/30/08 at 6:36 AM Respond

From The Clinton's Chaos To Meltdown:
The Clintonian Entitlement--Tearing Our Country Apart

In the 90s, when Bill Clinton brought 5 million poor Mexicans into our country--why did he not grant them minimum wage instead of dragging down lower-middle and poor Americans into competition with slave wages and ultimately sacrifice the standard of living Americans fought for? Largely uneducated, these immigrants work for wages that give parasitic CEOs "collecting" 10 & 11 figures (notice, I didn't say "earning") wet dreams. They are now the Clinton's best voting bloc--

When things don't go their way, the Clintons will incite grossly adhominen dissension, divisions, upheaval, and, are willing to twist, distort, cause chaos & violate the rules; they have no problem watching the whole process meltdown --with them. Mere dishonest politicians, are no match for those whose lives are pathologically dedicated to the "art" of deceit. Good For Clinton: Bad For the USA.

IT WAS in the 90s, with NAFTA, that the transformation began in earnest!, & our democracy began its descent Into a destabilized two-Class (Ruling & Peasant) Society. Ambitious world "leaders" Republican, Democrat, Fascist & Tyrant annually celebrate the World Economic Forum inspired & energized by Bill Clinton's NAFTA & his message of entitlement at Davos, Switzerland, birthplace of the Ruling Class NWO (New World Order). Monica was really trifling!-- but with respect to their clandestine hard right policies & POLITICAL activities!--they were/are! scrupulously! secretive.

It was Romney, of all people who lacking the Clinton's cunning inadvertently blurted out the conservative goal was to "level" the playing field. He didn't spell it out, of course, but in the context it wasn't hard to figure out he meant enslaving American workers until our expectations met the quality of life even with that of the world's most impoverished.

Our prison population soared under Clinton and the social safety net started to unravel as he undid the work of Democratic administrations from Roosevelt to Lyndon Johnson and sent jobs abroad.

And the Democratic Party paid for it. According to the National
Conference of State Legislatures, Democrats held a 1,542 seat lead in
the state bodies in 1990. As of 1998 that lead had shrunk to 288.

Good for the Clintons' --Crisis For The U.S.

Posted by: Vita Libertas on 01/30/08 at 7:51 AM Respond

The good Rev. Huckabee is toast. Thanks to a breaking scandal and K. Copeland. Yee-ouch! It's kind if icky when Evangelicals are licking one another's fannies. America's mayor should have stuck with being America's mayor and not be on the national stage lying about how he saved America on 9/11. Romney hasn't a prayer and it's exactly because he's Mormon. Let's not be disingenuous about that. McCain is the GOP "anointed" and always has been. The election 2008 will offer America banality, corruption, warmongering, and the lowest common denominator for candidate from both political parties.

Posted by: Skulz Fontaine on 01/30/08 at 10:11 AM Respond

Pouring maple syrup over dog$hit doesn't turn it into a pancake...Romney, McCain, Huckabee-meet the new boss...SAME AS THE OLD BOSS...We won't get fooled again...
The Who

Posted by: Christopher Flynn on 01/30/08 at 2:45 PM Respond

Voters to Rudy: get lost. Well, he's not the first candidate to waste untold time, energy & money in a futile bid for the Presidency (*cough*Ross Perot*cough*cough*), and he certainly won't be the last. Too bad the Dems' primary counts for nothing (smooth move, Florida; NOT!), save a Hillary photo op. Still, it should make (Post-Super Bowl) Tuesday a real blast. As a registered Democrat who's voted in every Presidential and Legislative election since 1988, I'm really hoping that Hillary & Obama come out about even. That'll make the convention this August even more fun. TTFN, True Believers; Democrats rule and Republicans drool! 'Nuff said!

Posted by: Bleeding-Heart Liberal on 01/30/08 at 3:22 PM Respond

I don't know, I watched about 3/4 of the debate today, and it sure seemed like they were about to all go grab shovels and head for the cemetery, there, all that was missing was a Ouija board and a bottle of Vitalis and a picture of the Berlin wall.
Rehash, reruns, recap, retread, retreat from the issues, at any rate, anytime they start trying to raise the dead, it's a fair indicator they showed up with a Wiffle bat at a baseball game. Paul, in my view, came closest to the mark, of course he's kind of been my favorite ever since Kucinich cashed in his campaign chips,
but both he and Dennis are Constitution-firsters, rather than trying to lip-lock onto the back of the defense industry. Romney's pro-war, McCain's pro-war, but they played patty-cake with who said who for a full 15 minutes, which I thought was kind of pathetic. It's back to Kerry-land of being for it before you were against being forgaintforagainerrorerrorerrordividebyzeroerrorcode342, visualize a computer tape reel going overspeed and sending the tape streaming overhead...point for Paul again, either we go to war under a full-bore Congressional declaration of war, or forget it. Usurping Congress' authority, though, has been the hallmark of this administration, and one has to kind of imagine the sums of money that got slid in shiny silver suitcases under countless tables, at any rate a wholesale defrauding of the public, and a clear violation of lawful process under the Constitution. Honey, what WILL you do for money.
The Iraq war, in the eyes of many, likely including the current and former residents, was a resource war, an oil war, there's black gold in them thar sand dunes, and certain parties have been eyeing them greedily for quite some time now. Why does that matter? Well, Bush was an oilman, Cheney is/was an oilman, Iraq has oil reserves, and, curiously enough, our military now seems stationed there for all perpetuity. Coincidence? I don't think so. I pretty much dismiss all the pro-war rhetoric as a sunshine story, and its' purveyors as bald-faced liars. I used to kind of lean republican, but the neo-con Mother Of All Money Scams precipitated this event, and now we're all supposed to stand to and support the 'war effort', which you'll be supporting whether you like it or not, because at the end of the day, the government can pretty much just clean you out, and they don't even have to say 'please' anymore, under the Patriot Act and all that. Greed. And, that's just the point: All the money has gone runaway, no voter accountability, 'do whatever', and apparently 'keep it going as long as possible' etc.
My view is, the war never needed to happen to begin with. But, when people start tinkering with the legal system, and doing all this other stuff to fulfill their ambitions at the direct expense of the country, and it's all behind closed doors,
well...ya gotta wonder. Public corruption figures largely in this whole thing, too, 'defense' means jobs, means a lot of things, but in the BushCo context, they're not on defense anymore, by any stretch of the imagination. I think, if they're going to continue on as they have, they may as well have truth in advertising. Call it 'the war department' again.

Posted by: Bert on 01/30/08 at 8:51 PM Respond

From the Democratic National Committee, Florida:

Florida has been awarded 210 delegates and 35 alternates. 121 delegates and 25 alternates are allocated at the Congressional District level based on the proportional vote each Democratic Presidential candidate gets in that District provided they get at least 15.0% of the vote.

Hillary Clinton gets a total of 38 delegates (14 PLEOs and 24 at-large) and 6 alternates.

Barrack Obama gets a total of 26 delegates (10 PLEOS and 16 at-large) and 4 alternates.
Democratic National Committee, Florida

The above is from an email I received on 1/30 at 5PM

Posted by: Pete Ross on 01/31/08 at 5:22 AM Respond

Ron Paul newsletters:

You can do a Google search for Ron Paul newsletters and see what you find. You may not be so enthusiastic about him after you see some of his positions.

Here is one link - there are numerous others:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=74978161-f730-43a2-91c3-de262573a129

Posted by: Peter Ross on 01/31/08 at 5:28 AM Respond

Writing from the fringes of the Empire, here in South America we cannot tell the difference between the Democratic and the Republican party. What, for example, would the Democrats do regarding the killing in Iraq? Will they impeach Bush and his gang for war crimes? Of course not. So all this silly make-believe game of American democracy (I realized it was all a lie when Al Gore lost in 2000) is so pathetic!

Posted by: Jaime Alberto on 01/31/08 at 7:22 PM Respond

There's got to be a legal/Constitutional issue in the DNC excluding Florida's participation in the national elections.

They are disenfranchising the voters of an entire State from a say in who the president will be (I assume this prohibition extends to the national electoral college vote).

This is a systemic problem. The RNC and DNC draw up the rules for our national elections, but they are not mandated by the Constitution, or even by law, to do so. In many ways, the rules they've drawn up play against the exercise of democracy, including the ability of third-party candidates to realistically compete.

Now we have corporations getting into the same game directly, as when NBC/General Electric decided they couldn't tolerate Dennis Kucinich's "outre" views making it into the public dialog, and excluded him from their debate after their first set of criteria allowed him into them.

Have we had enough yet, of government by, for, and of the Corporation?

Posted by: Dan Mortenson on 01/31/08 at 9:34 PM Respond

it is hard to stay cool when you see the fascists at work right here in these blogs.

this whole mess about ron paul and his newsletters is so obviously a send up by the power elite that he is directly confronting with his proposals to actually follow the rule of the land- the constitution.

it is very difficult to gain persepective on the forest when we are stuck looking at the bark of just one tree- this is the media's job- unplug yourself and read some good analysis about the groups that sit outside and abve the governments of the world. There are groups fo people who get together and have increadable power like the Bilderberg group, the Trilateral commision, and the council on foriegn relations. These groups meet in private with no or very little press coverage.

Davos is the media darling of the event but where do you think the real choices are laid out and made by the ruling class? not in front of the media at davos, but in a whole network of private meetings and associations where debates are held well away from prying eyes and ears.

most of our leaders from all the developed nations come from these groups- or are a member of one or not all of them and is it any wonder that the higher you go in the two political parties in the US the smaller the differences really are...

the challenge is getting aware of the true structures that are running and ruling our economies and societes. I have no recomendations on how to combat these people who are in control of the police, the clandestine services, the military and most importantly the media. If anything is ever going to really change, the people en masse are going to have to rise in the millions upon millions in all developed nations and maintain there protests for months to wrestle from these people some form of actual freedom from the oppresive systems of control that have evolved. good luck to all of us...

Posted by: J.Smith on 02/01/08 at 1:22 PM Respond

As a Florida registered Democrat, I just want to say that not counting the Florida delegates in the primary would be completely unacceptable. If Obama wins the nomination fair and square with all the Florida primary votes counted, I will probably vote for him. However, if Obama receives the Democratic nomination without the Florida delegates counted, under no circumstances will I vote for him. Instead, I will abstain, vote for an independent, or even seriously consider voting Republican. I am sure many other Florida democrats plan the same action, especially after what happened with Al Gore in 2000!

Posted by: Tom on 02/05/08 at 4:26 PM Respond